SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/15/11

[Shrykespeare]

Not surprisingly, Transformers: Dark of the Moon repeated as box office champ-een this weekend, running roughshod over its competition and blowing right by The Hangover Part II to become the highest-grossing movie of the year (so far). Horrible Bosses, meanwhile, took #2 with a surprisingly high $28 million OW, far ahead of the paltry $21 million that the high-budget Kevin James comedy Zookeeper could muster. Meanwhile, the rap-music documentary Beats, Rhymes & Life came out of the pack to snag an impressive victory in the PTA race.

This Friday, an era ends. The most popular and lucrative series of movies ever to be adapted from a series of novels reaches its gripping and long-awaited conclusion, as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt 2 hits theaters. Way back in November 2001, the first chapter of J.K. Rowling’s bestselling series about the boy wizard hit theaters, and an empire was built. Over the last decade, the main cast, which at the time were completely unknown British child actors, have become superstars, and have grown up before our very eyes. They started as preteens, but have blossomed into young adults, and now their time together on-screen has reached its swan song.

Just how popular has this series been? Well, here are the raw numbers:

The Sorcerer’s Stone – $90.3M OW, $317.6M domestic, $974.7M worldwide
The Chamber of Secrets – $88.4M OW, $262.0M domestic, $878.6M worldwide
The Prisoner of Azkaban – $93.7M OW, $249.5M domestic, $795.6M worldwide
The Goblet of Fire – $102.7M OW, $290.0M domestic, $895.9M worldwide
The Order of the Phoenix – $77.1M OW, $292.0M domestic, $938.2M worldwide
The Half-Blood Prince – $77.8M OW, $302.0M domestic, $929.4M worldwide
The Deathly Hallows Part 1 - $125.0M OW, $295.0M domestic, $948.6M worldwide

The seven movies combined have earned just over $2 billion domestically, and over $6.3 billion internationally. Bottom line: it’s popular, folks. And when you end a series like this, you’d better freakin’ do it right. And, judging by the earlier reviews for Deathly Hallows Part 2, director David Yates has done it right… all 20 of the reviews that have come into RT have been positive, and that is a terrific sign.

I won’t go into the plot… either you know it or you don’t care about it. The final battle between Harry Potter (Daniel Radcliffe) and the evil Lord Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes) will be action-packed, terrifically-shot, emotional, have terrific effects, and end the most beloved series of movies of this millennium on a high note. Many of the characters we’ve come to know and love (or hate) will die, and the final showdown between Harry and Voldemort will likely be the most epic good-vs-evil battle since Return of the Jedi.

As expected, Deathly Hallows Part 2 will be showcased in an huge numbers of theaters, upwards of 4,200, which will no doubt include many 3D and IMAX locations as well. It will run you $35 in the July Ultimate leagues and $34 in the Box Office leagues. For that, I expect no fewer than fifteen Top 5 points, seven PTA, and a Rating no lower than 8.1. And even in this summer where underwhelming numbers have been the norm, I expect fans to turn out in droves, numerous times, to the tune of an opening weekend of $147 million, on its way to $360 million. It will be by far the highest-grossing of the series (at least here in the US).

Twice before a Harry Potter film has gone toe-to-mechanized-toe with a Transformers movie, with Michael Bay’s lifeblood coming out on top. Will that happen again? Well, with Dark of the Moon off to an incredible start, I think it will be a tight race. However, there is no doubt that you MUST take Deathly Hallows Part 2 for your slate. Nothing that is coming out in the next four months will even come close to it (maybe a year). Take it. Or you will regret it.

While the Harry Potter films started out as basically kids’ movies, what with the main cast all being adorable little preteen tykes playing around with magic, having adventures and playing Quiddich, it is certainly not like that now. The cast have all grown up, and the mood of the films have become much darker, scarier and more serious. Therefore, for parents who would just as soon wait until their small children have come of age before subjecting them to the last few Harry Potter films, this weekend will bring another option for them, that being .Winnie the Pooh.

One of the most beloved children’s book characters of all time, Winnie the Pooh was first created by author A.A. Milne in 1926. The diminutive, loveable, honey-craving bear and his band of forest-creature buddies became, thanks to Disney, a very popular series of featurettes and full-length films over the last fifty years. And now, the brain-trust at Disney have come out with a new tale of Winnie, done in hand-drawn animation, and it will be showcased in 2,300 theaters starting Friday.

Directors Stephen J. Anderson (Meet the Robinsons) and Don Hall are credited with bringing this story, adapted from several different Milne short stories, to the big screen. One story involves Winnie (Jim Cummings) and his friends Tigger (also Cummings), Rabbit (Tom Kenny), Owl (Craig Ferguson), Piglet (Travis Oates), Kanga (Kristen Anderson-Lopez) and Roo (Wyatt Dean Hall) to find a new tail for Eeyore (Bud Luckey). A second involves the group searching for human boy Christopher Robin (Jack Boulter). John Cleese is the film’s narrator.

Look, I’ll admit that I was a huge fan of Winnie the Pooh as a child. And if I had a small child, I would probably want to take him/her to see this. It’s harmless, it has good messages to convey about friendship and loyalty, and its has laughs that would appeal to a small child without resorting to bathroom humor. And while this film will undoubtedly appeal to little kids more than adults, the good news for parents is that Winnie’s run-time is barely more than an hour.

Now, does that mean that Winnie the Pooh will be a big hit? Unfortunately, I have to say no. Small children and their parents do not make up as significant a demographic as one might expect, and given that both of this summer’s major animated films, Kung Fu Panda 2 and Cars 2, have only done about 50% of the business they were SUPPOSED to do, I can only predict that a tiny little film like this will come and go without much fanfare. Small kids are, regrettably, probably more likely to go see The Smurfs in two weeks, especially given how much more advertising that film is getting.

Winnie the Pooh is only $9 in Ultimate leagues ($10 in Box Office), but for that, you’ll only get one or two Top 5 points at the most, probably no PTA, a good Rating in the low 7’s, and $34 million. In a perfect world, this film would get its due. Sadly, we don’t live in that world right now.

And now, a little bit about the four limited release films opening this week:

(Note: the film Buzzkill was recently bumped from this weekend to August 26th.)

Salvation Boulevard ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – Director George Ratliff (Joshua) leads a star-studded cast in this comedic thriller, which will debut in five theaters this Friday. An entrant at Sundance this year, Salvation Boulevard is a story of extremely exaggerated spiritualism, taking the form of Pastor Dan Day (Pierce Brosnan), who is attempting to turn his church into a business empire by taking advantage of his followers (nothing new there). However, former Deadhead-turned-born-again-Christian Carl (Greg Kinnear) doesn’t feel like drinking Dan’s Kool-Aid, which makes him a potential threat. The trailer should tell you the rest of what you need to know about the plot. The exceptional cast also includes Oscar winners Jennifer Connelly and Marisa Tomei, Oscar-nominated actor Ed Harris, Ciaran Hinds, Jim Gaffigan and Isabelle Fuhrman.

Five theaters is just the right amount to vie for PTA points. Salvation Boulevard may not hop Harry Potter in that category, but it would seem, on paper anyway, to have the best chance at #2. It’s early User Rating is quite good (7.8, but with only 109 votes), so this would seem to be worth the gamble.

Snow Flower and the Secret Fan ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – Based on the 2005 novel by Lisa See, this drama set in 19th century China (as well as the modern day), is scheduled to bow in 23 theaters this weekend. It will include English and Chinese languages (with English subtitles). Directed by Wayne Wang (The Joy Luck Club), the story centers on Snow Flower (Gianna Jun) and Lily (Bingbing Li), two women who bond as children in a society where there are many cultural restrictions imposed on them as women. They invent a secret code as a means to combat these restrictions and maintain their bond, a bond which they hope will last throughout eternity. The film also stars Russell Wong (The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor) and Archie Kao (CSI: Crime Scene Investigation), and Hugh Jackman is also reported to have a small role as well.

This appears to be the kind of story that would be very popular with women, who no doubt read this novel in their book-of-the-month club meetings. Twenty-three theaters is on the high end of PTA viability, however, and is more of a gamble than Salvation Boulevard. The good news is, I can’t see the Rating for Snow Flower being less than 6.8, so there’s that.

Tabloid ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – Like Salvation Boulevard, Tabloid was also showcased at Sundance this year, and is also being distributed by IFC. Set to debut in 14 theaters, Tabloid is a documentary chronicling the much publicized story of Joyce McKinney, a former Miss Wyoming who falls madly in love with a young Mormon missionary named Kirk Anderson. In fact, she falls for him so hard that she pursues him to England, frantically trying to lure him away from Mormonism by using… provocative means. Of course, this story was picked up by every rag in England, and, depending on who you believe, involved kidnapping, brainwashing, and numerous other scandalous “naughty bits”.

Oscar-winning director Errol Morris (The Fog of War), according to critics, has done a stellar job navigating through minefield of supposition and exaggeration to tell Joyce’s story, which also includes recent interviews with the former beauty queen. It currently has a score of 90% at RT (9/10), and has a very good Rating as well (8.0 with 119 votes). In a week rife with interesting picks, Tabloid seems to be yet another one. But they can’t all get PTA points, can they?

Life, Above All ($3 Ult, 1 BO) – This drama from South Africa was that country’s entry as Best Foreign Film at this year’s Academy Awards, and was also featured at the Cannes Film Festival. It, too, has gotten simply amazing reviews (16/17 positive at RT), and will be bowing this Friday at an unknown number of theaters in New York and Los Angeles (probably single digits). Life, Above All centers on 12-year-old Chanda (Khomotso Manyaka), who learns of a rumor that spreads through her dusty village near Johannesburg immediately following the death of her younger sister, a rumor so nasty that her mother is forced to flee, and Chanda makes the choice to leave school and her home in order to search for her… as well as the truth.

As I said, critics have been nearly unanimous in praising this film’s direction, cinematography, and especially the acting, most notably Manyaka in her movie debut. Its early User Rating isn’t as terrific (6.5 with 114 votes), but if you are one of the few who chose The First Grader and its three PTA points, you may want to consider picking this one as well. Tough choices this week!


My predictions for the weekend of July 15-17, 2011:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $147 million
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $25 million
3. Horrible Bosses – $15 million
4. Winnie the Pooh – $12 million
5. Zookeeper – $10 million
6. Cars 2 – $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, July continues with five more films, scheduled for release on July 22nd: Captain America: The First Avenger, the latest in Marvel’s Avengers series, starring Chris Evans as the WWII superhero; Friends With Benefits, a romantic comedy starring Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis; as well as limited-release features Sarah’s Key, Another Earth, and The Myth of the American Sleepover.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Kristi Yamaguchi (Olympic gold medal figure skater) (40 on 7/12)
Cheryl Ladd (TV's Charlie’s Angels) (60 on 7/12)
Jackie Earle Haley (Watchmen, now filming Dark Shadows) (50 on 7/14)
Forest Whitaker (Repo Men, next up in Catch .44 with Bruce Willis) (50 on 7/15)
Jesse “The Body” Ventura (Predator, The Running Man) (60 on 7/15)
Corey Feldman (The Lost Boys) (40 on 7/16)

Later!

[Buscemi]

In PTA, I'd take Tabloid and avoid Salvation Boulevard. IFC seems to pushing Tabloid (much more marketing) and dumping Salvation Boulevard (the trailer hasn't gotten a good reception and the poster was only just released last week). Makes you wonder why Sony Pictures Classics didn't take this one if word of mouth at Sundance was good (Sony got the foreign rights).

[numbersix]

I'm concerned that Tabloid is opening in 14 theatres, and Standard Operating Procedure didn't do too well on the PTA front either. Maybe the News of the World scandal might raise interest?

I also thought Snow Flower would be a good PTA option, but 23 theatres is too much.

Predictions:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $135 million
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $23 million
3. Horrible Bosses – $15 million
4. Zookeeper – $10 million
5. Cars 2 – $8 million
6. Winnie the Pooh – $7 million

[Chienfantome]

Yeah me too, I dropped Tabloid and Snow Flower because of their theater counts.

[W]

I dropped Snow Flower for Salvation Blvd because of the counts.

[englishozzy]

Harry Potter has a midnight screening over night here and the two cinemas near me are both sold out.

My predictions;

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $135 million
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $25 million
3. Horrible Bosses - $14 million
4. Winnie the Pooh - $11 million
5. Zookeeper - $9 million

[Buscemi]

The theatre nearest me has THIRTEEN midnight shows sold out.

[Geezer]

Holy Shit

[silversurfer19]

Well that news gets me excited for my full year, hopefully it can at least match Transformers' numbers. I know as well as Midnight screenings, they are also holding dawmn screenings in NZ, for those who can't do late nights but will watch it before school/ work.

[Buscemi]

Good news: Harry Potter has already grossed $13 million in pre-sales.

[silversurfer19]

Well, that should ensure it will beat Judy Moody then, I'm off to a good start!

[thswrestler160]

well even more good news. harry potter has now broken the advanced ticket sales record with over 32 million in sales. and its still has a whole day and a half left!

[Shrykespeare]

Rotten Tomatoes scores so far:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt 2
96% - 124 Fresh, 5 Rotten

Winnie the Pooh
84% - 41 Fresh, 8 Rotten

Life, Above All
91% - 20 Fresh, 2 Rotten

Tabloid
85% - 28 Fresh, 5 Rotten

Snow Flower and the Secret Fan
30% - 3 Fresh, 7 Rotten

Salvation Boulevard
8% - 1 Fresh, 12 Rotten (yikes)


Current IMDb scores:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - 8.7 (4,448 votes)
Winnie the Pooh - 7.2 (595 votes)

Tabloid - 7.6 (131 votes)
Salvation Boulevard - 7.6 (119 votes)
Life Above All - 6.4 (116 votes)
Snow Flower and the Secret Fan - none


I'm so torn!! Which of these four films is the better PTA pick? Salvation Boulevard has the best number of theaters of the group (five), and has a decent Rating (albeit with only a few votes), but has gotten reamed by critics. Life Above All has great reviews but only a middling Rating, and African dramas don't usually break the bank in PTA. Tabloid seems to be the best overall pick, and hopefully the 14 theaters won't do it in.

[numbersix]

If the critics hate a limited release, watch out.

[Shrykespeare]

Agreed. Ultimately, I have removed Salvation Boulevard from all my slates. I left Life Above All on a couple, and Tabloid on one (I think). I'll take my chances on a different weekend where there is less uncertainty.

I think it's a given that HP will win the PTA anyway.