SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I don't think Harry Potter is direct competition for Transformers, no. They're both blockbusters, but one has a very set fanbase - nobody is going to see HP for the first time with the last movie - while Transformers appeals to all and any action fans. Plus I think parents know HP is not a children's movie, while Transformers COULD be. I keep reading comments on EW that people are taking their kids to it, so I guess they think it's appropriate.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Buscemi »

Friday numbers (from Deadline):

Transformers 3 $33.5 million Friday, $120 million weekend
Larry Crowne $4 million Friday, $17 million weekend
Monte Carlo $3 million Friday, $10 million weekend
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Chienfantome »

I'm pretty sure the trailer who showed everything ruined a bit of its box-office potential for Larry Crowne. The trailer was just so awful.
I totally understand how people would be more interested in seeing Bad Teacher rather than Larry Crowne.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by W »

If I weren't a part of this site, I wouldn't know that a Tom Hanks/Julia Roberts film was coming out this year. In the 90's that wouldn't have happened.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

i agree, i haven't seen anything about it. and also agree that the trailer was horrible, it did give everything away.


on a different note, i'm surprised no one has mentioned it, but have you seen Cars 2 second weekend numbers? it's friday was down 70%, that's crazy. In one hand i say, Pixar deserves it, on the other hand, i'm pissed that i have it on my full year slate.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday estimates (BOM):

Transformers, $32.9M
Cars 2, $7.9M
Bad Teacher, $4.5M
Larry Crowne, $4.0M
Monte Carlo, $3.1M
Super 8, $2.2M
Green Lantern, $1.9M
Mr. Popper's Penguins, $1.6M
Bridesmaids, $1.0M
Midnight in Paris, $890K
X-Men: First Class, $825K


Weekend (7/1-7/3) predictions (BoxOffice):

Transformers, $97M
Cars 2, $23.5M
Bad Teacher, $13.5M
Larry Crowne, $13M
Monte Carlo, $8M
Super 8, $6.7M
Green Lantern, $6M
Mr. Popper's Penguins, $4.7M
Bridesmaids, $3.2M
Midnight in Paris, $3.1K
X-Men: First Class, $2.7K
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Buscemi »

The showing of Larry Crowne I went to today had a large crowd of senior citizens. I'd say it was about 80% full for an early afternoon show.

And no, the trailer does not give everything away. In fact, it mostly covers just the first hour and shows maybe one scene in the second half.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Chienfantome »

It doen't matter Boosch, what matters is IT FEELS like you see the film when you see the trailer, and then no one goes to see it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Transformers, $97.4M
4 points - Cars 2, $25.1M (-62.%... wow)
3 points - Bad Teacher, $14.1M
2 points - Larry Crowne, $13M
1 point - Monte Carlo, $7.6M
Super 8, $7.5M
Green Lantern, $6.3M
Mr. Popper's Penguins, $5.1M
Bridesmaids, $3.5M
Midnight in Paris, $3.4M
X-Men: First Class, $2.9M

PTA (May/Jun leagues)
5 points - Transformers
4 points - A Better Life
3 points - Cars 2
2 points - Beginners
1 point - Bad Teacher

PTA (Jul leauges)
5 points - Transformers
4 points - Larry Crowne
3 points - Monte Carlo
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Buscemi »

Chienfantome wrote:It doen't matter Boosch, what matters is IT FEELS like you see the film when you see the trailer, and then no one goes to see it.
True but once again, this is a case where the trailer isn't telling the truth.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Chienfantome »

It's too bad then, because it means the film was killed by the marketing team.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by numbersix »

I can't believe how poorly Larry Crowne did. This is going to cost me in the game. Cost me dearly. My only hope is that it has some sort of legs and scrapes it to 50 mil, but that's not looking good.

UDM also pointed out something worrying: the legs of Cars 2. At this rate it could be Pixar's lowest earning film (taking inflation into account). Maybe that will teach them a lesson about forced sequels, and they'll reconsider Toy Story 4, and focus more on original material like Brave, which looks great.

What's going on with you yanks? There's a lot of underperforming films this summer. Is it the quality of the films or is the recession digging deep? Or does every film need women puking and shitting on the street to do well?

Wow, now that I think of it, this year looks poor in terms of cinema, but next year looks great.... Brave, Dark Knight Returns, Prometheus, the Hobbit, Django Unchained, Star Trek 2... that's far better than this year's collection of high-profile flicks.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Chienfantome »

2012 does look promising indeed in terms of quality. There are some fantastic looking original films, and the sequels are following great films.

I'm glad I only put Larry Crowne on a couple of slates only (maybe even a single one), because even though I didn't think it would be huge at the BO, I didn't think it'd do that bad yeah. It's behind Bad Teacher's second week-end, who would have thought ?!

As for Cars 2, given the word of mouth I've been getting from friends who've seen it at a press screening recently, I would be that surprised if it was to become one of the lowest BO results for Pixar.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Buscemi »

I think it's the quality of the films. Apparently, every movie needs to have Ryan Reynolds, a superhero cracking jokes, explosions, women either being non-existent or pandering to the base and/or have a score by Hans Zimmer of a protege of his now.

If this were any other period in time, Kung Fu Panda 2, Thor, X-Men: First Class and Larry Crowne would be dominating the box office. Instead, we get Transformers 3, The Hangover Part II and Fast Five.

Also, there used to be a time in which movies had likeable teachers who actually did their jobs and cared for the students. Well, at least Larry Crowne had a few (one played by Sulu, no less).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

Post by Geezer »

I'm shocked at the Cars 2 drop. With the popularity of the merchandise it just really seemed so can't miss. You would think that kids would be screaming to go see it again and again. Damn.
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