SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/25

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Shrykespeare
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SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/25

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sharpen your carving knives, it’s time for your yearly overdose of Tryptophan. But before you start feeling drowsy, read this column, which will close out the eleventh month of 2009. One more week, and the 2nd Annual Super Leagues will enter the home stretch. We are but five short weeks from crowning our champions? Can you feel the excitement? Well, CAN YOU?

This is always an interesting weekend; every big movie coming out will have the benefit of five days of box office bread-winning rather than three. It’s not the only weekend like that, but it’s the only one that takes place at the end of its month, every single year. And really, what else is there to do over Thanksgiving? It’s too cold to play golf, and football is not something you can fill your entire weekend with (at least, I hope not)… and there’s only so much you can take of barely-seen relatives before you long for the solace of a dark theater, right? But I digress…

The date of November 25th will feature the arrival of three more wide-release films: a dorky slapstick family comedy, a post-apocalyptic drama, and a balls-out martial-arts action flick. Can any of them compete with the monstrous behemoth known as Twilight: New Moon, which turned in the third-best opening weekend of all time?

Well, probably not. Even if history repeats itself and New Moon suffers a huge drop in its second week, it’s still almost a shoe-in to repeat as champion. The biggest competition for that prize is Old Dogs, a family comedy from director Walt Becker, the same man responsible for the egregiously successful Wild Hogs in 2007. It stars John Travolta and Robin Williams as two friends, Charlie and Dan, and business partners whose lives are turned upside-down when it is revealed that Dan is the father of seven-year-old twins (the female of which is actually Travolta’s daughter).

Up until the bombshell dropped by Dan’s ex (Kelly Preston), Charlie and Dan’s lives were free of cares and commitments. But when these two lifelong bachelors are unceremoniously put in charge of babysitting duties. Hijinks ensue. Will there be a disastrous camping trip? Hell yes! A disastrous trip to the zoo? You betcha? A heartwarming ending? Eh, probably. Seth Green, Matt Dillon, Justin Long, Luis Guzman and Dax Shepard also co-star. (It’s probably also worth noting that Old Dogs, which was postponed from earlier this year, is the very last film that will feature the late actor/comedian Bernie Mac.)

To be blunt, I will not be seeing this movie. Many people enjoy brainless humor (shots to the nuts, animal attacks, medicinal screw-ups, etc.), but I really don’t. I’m sure I’m in the minority, however. Old Dogs will run you $16 in the November Ultimate leagues, and $17 in the Box Office. For that price, you may walk off with 9-12 Top 5 points, a few PTA and about $130 million, which isn’t too bad, really. Just don’t complain if the User Rating doesn’t help your cause (I predict 5.8.)

Up next is The Road, another film that has been postponed once or twice to get to this point in time. (It is only now that I’m starting to find out that this film will NOT be going wide, a fact corroborated by both Box Office Mojo and ComingSoon.net. But I’ll say a few words about it anyway.) Based on the best-selling book by Cormac McCarthy, who penned novels like All the Pretty Horses and No Country For Old Men, The Road takes place in a bleak, post-apocalyptic world. What exactly caused said apocalypse is unspecified, but needless to say, what few survivors there are forced to pick whatever meat is left on the bones of human society.

The film centers on an unnamed man (LOTR’s Viggo Mortensen) who, along with his son (Kodi Smit McPhee), are trying to make their way to the coast for search for possible food, shelter, safety, or even other survivors. Crossing the barren landscapes of the world, they must keep themselves shape from roaming gangs of thugs and cannibals. Robert Duvall, Charlize Theron and Guy Pearce also co-star.

I’m not really sure what to make of this film. It’s gotten decent reviews so far (75% at RT), but is such a bleak film what people really want to see during the holiday season? From what I’ve read of the reviews, it is dark, almost hopelessly so. The sky is charcoal-gray, and the ragged remains of humanity is equally gray. But unlike similar films like, say, Children of Men, there doesn’t really seem to a ray of hope to uplift us. It’s simply a story about survival. At least the equally disturbing but much more critically acclaimed Precious has tremendous performances to fall back on. The Road doesn’t seem to even have that, despite the terrific cast.

I’m not at all sure how many theaters The Road will be bowing in, so it’s tough to gauge its possibilities. A few PTA may be in store, but given the huge PTA numbers several movies put up last week, not to mention the debut of Disney’s latest, The Princess and the Frog, which will be opening on only two screens, and is probably a lock to win the PTA crown this weekend. It will run you $8 in both leagues, and given its history, I wouldn’t bother spending my money on it. There are better choices out there.

Third up, we have Ninja Assassin, which on its face probably looks like just another Asian-influenced run-of-the-mill martial arts movie, not unlike flops like Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li. However, such a first impression would probably be dead wrong. This title has got a LOT more going for it than that turd.

For starters, Assassin is directed by James McTeigue, who helmed the magnificent V For Vendetta several years ago. That movie was written and co-produced by The Matrix creators the Wachowski Brothers, and they are back as producers in this film as well. Given that, one would expect as slick, well-shot, completely cool action flick, with awesome fight scenes and terrific effects.

It’s been a while since “ninja” movies were “in”, hasn’t it? I remember the 80’s, when Hollywood had ninja fever; whether they were Asian, American, preteens, or amphibians, everybody needed their ninja fix. The luster soon wore off, however, but now, two decades later, the mysterious black-clad assassins are making a comeback.

The story follows Raizo (played by Koren singer/actor Rain, who was in Speed Racer), a man who was kidnapped as a child and raised by the mysterious Ozunu Clan. Trained from birth in the ways of assassination, he is forced to rebel against his masters when a friend of his is executed. Returning years later, he joins forces with a Europol agent (Naomie Harris) to take his old clan down.

This is probably the last balls-out action film to come out in wide release this year, and it has been advertised quite well. It’s only $7 in both leagues, but be warned: this is a weekend with very stiff competition. I don’t expect Ninja Assassin to open any higher than third (but I predict 4th, as I expect The Blind Side to hold quite well), which means only four Top 5, no PTA and a rating in the low 7’s. Unless you’re filling out your roster, I would pass.

I know last week, I said I would say a few words about The Princess and the Frog, the latest potential hand-drawn animated masterpiece from Disney, but I think I’ll leave it for surfer, if he (or anyone else) wants it . If no one else wants it, I’ll talk about it in a few weeks, when it opens everywhere. (Damn Tryptophan, making me lazy!!)


My predictions for the weekend of November 27-29, 2009:

1. Twilight: New Moon - $65 million ($91 million 5-day)
2. Old Dogs - $33 million ($56 million 5-day)
3. The Blind Side - $18 million ($28 million 5-day)
4. Ninja Assassin - $17 million ($26 million 5-day)
5. The Road - $13 million ($22 million 5-day)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we break in the month of December, as we prepare to go down the home stretch on the way to 2010. There will be four films debuting on the weekend of December 4th, including: Armored, a tense drama about armored-car drivers who decide to steal their own stash; Brothers, a tense (coming-home-from) war drama starring Tobey Maguire and Jake Gyllenhall; Everybody’s Fine, a family dramedy starring Robert DeNiro who decides to visit his kids for the holidays after they all mysteriously opted out of visiting him; and Transylmania, a National Lampoon-ish-looking comedy about college kids who vacation in the heart of vampire country, only to find a few things they weren’t expecting.

Later!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Buscemi »

My best guess is that The Road will open in four theatres, then go wide on December 18th.

Meanwhile, I'd put New Moon's second week numbers at $40 million 3-day (a 71% drop) and $55 million 5-day. One quadrant movies drop quickly and this is no exception.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Geezer »

To be honest Shryke, I'd be surprised if Ninja Assassin grosses 26 million total. It just seems like a throwaway to me, even with the Wachowski's involved.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Buscemi »

Amazingly enough, two of the theatres around here are running Ninja Assassin on two screens. Meanwhile, none of the theatres are playing Old Dogs on multiple screens.

And still no Precious here.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by transformers2 »

I think Ninja Assassin will do decent numbers. It's getting advertised quite a bit and I think there is a thirst for a film like this right now. On a side note it looks awesome and will proably be the last film i see in theaters this year.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Geezer »

It reminds me of Shoot Em' Up. I think it will do similar numbers.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Buscemi »

Ninja Assassin reminds me of The Spirit mainly due to the lack of a name lead, the Holiday weekend release and the niche appeal of the film.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Buscemi »

The markets that are releasing The Road tomorrow:

Atlanta
Austin
Baltimore
Boston
Chicago
Dallas-Ft. Worth
Denver
Detroit
Erie
Houston
Kansas City
Los Angeles
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
Minneapolis-St. Paul
New York (in only one theatre)
Oklahoma City
Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne
Palm Springs
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Pittsburgh
Portland, OR
Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto
San Antonio
San Diego
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Santa Barbara-San Marcos-San Luis Obispo
Seattle-Tacoma
St. Louis
Tampa -St. Petersburg – Sarasota
Washington, DC

The Weinstein Company plans to add more markets in the next few weeks but considered their track record with limited releases like this, I don't see it happening.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Leestu »

"Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne"

I didn't know there was a Melbourne in USA. Is it in Florida?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Buscemi »

Yes, it is in Florida.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Buscemi »

What it looks like from crowd reports...

-Old Dogs is a hit. Not a big surprise there.
-Ninja Assassin is actually doing well. I guess the V For Vendetta factor played into it.
-Fantastic Mr. Fox is a flop in wide release. Looks like another case of Fox dumping something that doesn't meet their standards.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Well, based on complete and utter guesswork, here is how the final cuts in the Super Leagues will shake out.

Ult FY R9

Definitely out: mutard7
Most likely out: W, Walleye, A_Roode, chugsthemonkey
Which leaves one spot shrouded in mystery.


Ult HY R4

Definitely out: englishozzy, Nycguy84, akibaali, chugsthemonkey, Ron_Burgundy
Most likely out: Joko, Aquamann, Donte, undeadmonkey
The other two spots will be occupied by people with IMs.


BO FY R9

Definitely out: JackO, SuperShaan, thswrestler
Uses his IM: undeadmonkey
The other two spots in the RZ are too close to call right now.


BO HY R4

Definitely out: Buscemi, delfinasu, thswrestler, SuperShaan
Most likely out: SAMIAM1000, mutard7, JackO
Uses his IM: undeadmonkey
Which leaves three spots unpredictable.


If these predictions come true, the following players will have all their remaining slates eliminated right before the final round:

Buscemi
delfinasu
SuperShaan
akibaali
Nycguy84
englishozzy
chugsthemonkey
Joko
SAMIAM1000
Walleye413


And only five players will have successfully made it to the final round in all four tournaments:

codeslinger
Geezer
jas_8382
Scripps
Shrykespeare


Well done, all of you!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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