SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/24/11

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Cars 2 - 4,115
Bad Teacher - 3,049
The Names of Love - 5
A Better Life - 4
Around June - postponed (you know what? fuck this movie)


Estimates for next week:

Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 3,900
Larry Crowne - 2,750
Monte Carlo - 2,400
The Perfect Host - 2


BoxOffice.com's prediction for the weekend:

Cars 2, $67M
Bad Teacher, $25M
Green Lantern, $18M (-66%)
Super 8, $12.5M
Mr. Popper's Penguins, $9.8M
X-Men: First Class, $6.3M
Hangover 2, $5.3M
Bridesmaids, $4.5M
Kung Fu Panda 2, $4.2M
Midnight in Paris, $4M

[thswrestler160]

Shryke your estimates seem to be much higher than anyone else's for Cars 2.

Shryke 84
weekend warrior 67.2
Box office 67
Boxofficemojo 59
BOM Derby is up to 76

Is anyone else disheartened by the constant under performance of "Sure fire" movies this year. I'm beginning to lose my faith in the domestic box office, If Cars 2 can't crack 70mil opening week then that is just more proof that we've started a downward swing. At the beginning of this year I thought this was going to be the highest grossing summer ever with Thor, Xmen, Cars, GL, TF3, HP8, HO2, KFP2.

I'm starting to wonder if Transformers 3 and HP8 cant hit 350 which would mean something is seriously wrong.

[silversurfer19]

I wouldn't call this year a write off yet, after all, is it not possible that rather than there being any huge movies, there have been a lot more decent sized ones. For a start, so far this year there has been 1 more blockbuster than this time last year, while in tickets sold we are not that far off this time last year with the biggest movies of the year still to come (worth noting also that this time last year the top three grossing movies had already been released, so to be not that far off isn't bad). I suspect come the year's end it will be fairly similar to last year, just that the gross will be shared out more than heaped with just a few movies.

[undeadmonkey]

yea, i wouldn't either, not yet anyway. also April had the highest numbers it's ever had. I think SS is right, it's just spread out more evenly, instead of any particular film being huge. I bet though that transformers and Harry Potter will be pretty big.

[numbersix]

I also think there's a lot of wide-release movies coming out this year, maybe more than ever before, so perhaps the audiences are being split across movies a little more, hence the disappointment on the bigger films.

[transformers2]

I also not writing this year off either. With the exception of Kung Fu Panda 2, I really don't think there is any of the blockbusters that have severly underperformed. Cars 2 should still pretty well, and Transformers/Harry Potter will be huge.

[Chienfantome]

In the New York Times, so-so review for Cars, and surpringly good one for Bad Teacher. Maybe Bad Teacher could generate solid box-office. I'm counting on it. After Bridesmaid, the girls may want to keep seeing an R-rated comedy adressed to them.
(hey, 999 posts, next one will have me cross 1,000 !)

[numbersix]

I think Pirates of the Caribbean 4 was disappointing in relation to the other movies, earning way less. I also think Thor was a disappointment. X-Men 4 will also make less than the original films, Super 8 wasn't the surprise original hit that some of thought it would be, so I do feel that either blockbusters are underperforming or studios are overestimating

[Buscemi]

Pirates of the Caribbean was a monster internationally though.

[undeadmonkey]

isn't it supposed to cross the billion mark soon?

[thswrestler160]

its at 967 as of Boxofficemojo's last update. it should cross the 1billion mark sometime this week. I'm still betting that transformers and hp will be huge, if not all my slates will be useless. Thank god that the international box office has been booming lately making up for all our slack. pirates will end up around 5th all time. Kung fu will finish about the same or above the first, thor and fast five made most of their money oversees and hangover has already passed the firsts total. I always kind of wished we did a worldwide or international version of the game probably b really fun. Almost impossible to do but fun

[Buscemi]

Early estimates:

Cars 2 $60 million
Bad Teacher high $20 million-low $30 million

I'm amazed on Bad Teacher. It looks fucking awful.

[undeadmonkey]

its at 967 as of Boxofficemojo's last update. it should cross the 1billion mark sometime this week. I'm still betting that transformers and hp will be huge, if not all my slates will be useless. Thank god that the international box office has been booming lately making up for all our slack. pirates will end up around 5th all time. Kung fu will finish about the same or above the first, thor and fast five made most of their money oversees and hangover has already passed the firsts total. I always kind of wished we did a worldwide or international version of the game probably b really fun. Almost impossible to do but fun

that's not a bad idea, we could do it manually. for one league that's not too hard to do. Although then we would have to do prices. Or we could just do a draft league, that could be fun.

Early estimates:

Cars 2 $60 million
Bad Teacher high $20 million-low $30 million

I'm amazed on Bad Teacher. It looks fucking awful.

deadline is saying $68M for Cars and $32M for Bad Teacher

if those numbers hold, it's not awful for Cars, but it's not particularly great either. As for Bad Teacher i'm surprised myself, I thought it looked funny, but never expected it to be a hit, So i didn't put it on any of my slates. It could probably get to $90-$100 now, which would have made it an amazing pick in Box Office.

[Buscemi]

Unless the American word-of-mouth is just as bad as the UK word-of-mouth. Word-of-mouth killed the last movie from the same writers (Year One).

[numbersix]

Deadline is now saying 31 for Bad Teacher and 75 (!) for Cars 2. It may not get that high but even if it makes 70 mil it'll be a huge success for Pixar (most of their movies open in the 60's)