SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/24/11

[Shrykespeare]

June has proven to be a lot more consistent than May, to be sure. After the lackluster numbers of Thor and Kung Fu Panda 2 and the surprising numbers of Bridesmaids and The Hangover Part II, June has settled down and gone pretty much according to spec. In the last three weeks, X-Men: First Class, Super 8 and Green Lantern have all had decent if unspectacular debuts, leaving the door wide open for the heart of the summer lineup, which will be crashing into theaters over the next four weeks.

I won’t go into the long, amazing history of Pixar again. What more needs to be said? Two years ago, they produced Up, considered maybe the most Oscar-worthy venture they’ve ever had, and then followed that up with Toy Story 3, which not only ALSO won the Best Animated Picture Oscar as well as a Best Picture nod, but also became 1) The 11th film to hit $400 million, 2) the second-highest grossing animated film ever, behind Shrek 2, and 3) Pixar’s biggest film to date.

2011 brings us another sequel, in the form of Cars 2. Now, of the last seven films to be released by Pixar (Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Cars, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up and Toy Story 3), Cars was the third-least successful of the bunch domestically ($244 million) and the least successful internationally ($462 million). Plus, it had the lowest RT score of the group (74%, which is low for Pixar) and was the only one of the seven NOT to win Best Animated Picture (it lost to Happy Feet, gack). Makes me wonder why the folks at Pixar decided to green-light a sequel to it over, say, The Incredibles (which I have been clamoring for a sequel for since it came out).

In the original, we met cocky racecar Lightning McQueen (Owen Wilson), who learned the values of friendship and loyalty after being stranded in a Podunk town called Radiator Springs while en route to a big race. There, he made the acquaintance of the loveable but slow-witted tow truck Mater (Larry the Cable Guy), attorney Sally Carrera (Bonnie Hunt), and a host of other locals. All of those familiar characters (save one, Doc Hudson, voiced by the late Paul Newman) return, including Luigi (Tony Shalhoub), Sarge (Paul Dooley), Flo (Jenifer Lewis), Lizzie (Katherine Helmond), Mack (John Ratzenberger, who STILL hasn’t missed a Pixar film), and Fillmore (Lloyd Sherr, taking over for the late George Carlin).

Of course, the plot of Cars 2 is way different from the original; director John Lasseter has turned the sequel into a full-fledged action flick with explosions galore, not to mention an espionage thriller. Yes, you heard right: Mater, while accompanying Lightning to Europe for the World Grand Prix race, is mistaken as a spy, and finds himself embroiled in a very dangerous mission. Veteran British thespian Michael Caine voices master spy Finn McMissile, and Emily Mortimer plays sleek femme fatale Holley Shiftwell. Other notable actors joining the cast are Eddie Izzard, Jason Isaacs, Joe Mantegna, John Turturro and Vanessa Redgrave (playing the Queen of England, no less!).

After the monstrous success of Up and Toy Story 3, only a fool would bet against Pixar. But I would be surprised if, when all is said and done, Cars 2 isn’t viewed as a giant step down. I think, given its cast, Pixar’s hot streak, and the fact that it’s really the only animated film of the summer season (apart from Winnie the Pooh, which… well, never mind), Cars 2 should surpass its predecessor, both on its OW and overall. But can it break $300 million? I remain unconvinced.

I predict $84 million for Cars 2’s first three days (which will take place in 3,900 theaters). I expect it to drop quite slowly after that, because that is the norm for animated family films in general and Pixar films in particular. In total, I envision twelve Top 5 points, nine PTA, a Rating in the high 7’s (minimum), and $275 million. It is actually very reasonably priced at $27 in Ultimate ($28 in Box Office), so I would take this film for your slates with gusto. It probably won’t hold a candle to the final numbers of Transformers: Dark of the Moon or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt 2, but no Pixar film has EVER done worse than “quite well”, and I don’t think Cars 2 will be the first, no matter how lackluster the summer has been so far.

Well, if you are going to open the same weekend as a certified giant, you’d better be effective counter-programming. Now, a raunchy adult comedy is probably as different from the kiddie-centric Cars 2 as you can get short of a full-blown horror-slasher movie, and after bouncing up and down the roster, Sony/Columbia’s Bad Teacher finally settled on June 24th. Led by director Jake Kasdan, the film stars Cameron Diaz, Jason Segel, Justin Timberlake, Lucy Punch and Thomas Lennon.

The premise: Elizabeth Halsey (Diaz), a heavy-drinking, pot-smoking, foul-mouthed Chicagoan, is probably the worst person in the world to be shaping young minds. She curses at and verbally abuses her students (…she must have tenure), basically killing time until she can wed her wealthy fiancé (her goal in life). However, after he dumps her (I like him already), Elizabeth turns her sights on sexy sub Scott Delacorte (Timberlake), who is also independently wealthy. But to gain his attention, she has to fight off Amy (Punch), who also has the hots for Scott, as well as fighting off the advances of her school’s gym teacher (Segel).

If you’ve seen the trailers (especially the red-band), you’ll know that this is probably a movie that the kids acting in the film will not be allowed to see for several years. Apart from drug use, sexual innuendo out the wazoo, and more profanity than any film this year, Bad Teacher is very appropriately rated R.

Thing is, we’ve already HAD a female-led adult comedy this summer, that being Bridesmaids, which, after six weeks, is still at #7, and is easily the surprise hit of the year, earning $136 million and counting. Can Bad Teacher compete with those numbers? In my opinion, no. I think it will only get four Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA, and a Rating in the mid-6’s. It’s only $10 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), but for that kind of money, I would hope for better stats than that. As for its total output, I predict a $17 million OW and $50 million overall. The worst news for Bad Teacher is, there are no fewer than four comedies coming in July: Larry Crowne, Zookeeper, Friends With Benefits and Crazy Stupid Love (though I suppose you could throw The Smurfs in there too). I’d think twice before selecting this, perhaps even three or four times.

And now, a little bit about this week’s three limited-release features:

A Better Life ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – Director Chris Weitz (New Moon) goes small again with this tale about an illegal immigrant named Carlos (Demián Bichir, who played Fidel Castro in Che), who does his best to scratch out a living as a gardener in East L.A., while trying to avoid immigration officers and to keep his young son (Eddie Sotelo) away from street gangs that want to recruit him.

Though it is being released in only four theaters, A Better Life comes from a fairly large distributor (Summit Entertainment), and is unusual in that respect because it features an almost entirely Hispanic (and largely unknown) cast. The early reviews have been quite good (3/4 on RT), with critics calling A Better Life “moving”, “simple and understated”, and “scrupulously structured”. It will have to do very well indeed to top Cars 2 in the PTA department, but now that Tree of Life has finally been toppled, it could certainly happen.

Around June ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – How appropriate that this film was given a June release date. It was actually supposed to come out months ago… several times… but it kept getting pushed back. In fact, this film has been sitting on a shelf for three years, and is only now being shoved into theaters. June (Samaire Armstrong) is a young woman who lives with her loving uncle Henry (Brad William Henke) and her abusive father (Jon Gries). When she meets a penniless illegal immigrant (Oscar Guerrero), she is given the courage and inspiration to “break free and live her own life”.

I won’t waste your time by giving you predictions here, because if you take it for your slates (other than Bankrupt), you will probably regret it, even for $3. It has a miserable Rating (4.8 with 46 votes), and I’d be amazed if it got any PTA points at all. It’s a three-year-old movie, the Rating sucks, the trailer is a disjointed mess. What else can I say?

The Names of Love ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This is a 2010 French comedy (entitled Le nom des gens in French cinemas) written and directed by Michel Leclerc. It won three Cesar Awards (the French equivalent of the Oscars), including Best Actress for Sara Forestier. The story: Bahia Benmahmoud (Forestier), a half-Algerian French libertine, is a young left-wing activist whose primary “weapon” is sex… that is, she sleeps with her political opponents in order to manipulate them to her cause. However, she may have met her match in Arthur Martin (Jacques Gamblin), who seems to live his life in near-total apathy.

The list of French films that have become purveyors of PTA is long, but given the sociopolitical aspects of this film, which may ring hollow to any non-French ears, I wouldn’t think that The Names of Love will be joining that list. It will be showcased in six theaters this Friday, and its Rating is quite good (7.5 with 600 votes), but I would purchase this at your own peril. (For more insight, you can PM Chien, as he's probably the only one here who is likely to have seen this film.)


My predictions for the weekend of June 24-26, 2011:

1. Cars 2 - $84 million
2. Green Lantern – $26 million
3. Bad Teacher - $17 million
4. Super 8 – $13 million
5. Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the box office heats up again, as we tuck into the juicy white meat of the summer season, with the release of Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which will likely become the first film of the year to top $300 million. Shia LaBeouf, Josh Duhamel and Tyrese Gibson return in this trilogy-capper from Michael Bay. Also on tap: Larry Crowne, a romantic comedy reuniting Tom Hanks (who also directs) with his Charlie Wilson’s War costar Julia Roberts; Monte Carlo, a teen comedy starring Selena Gomez; and, in limited release, The Perfect Host, a dark thriller starring David Hyde Pierce.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Josh Lucas (The Lincoln Lawyer, up next in J. Edgar this December playing Charles Lindbergh) (40 on 6/20)
Olympia Dukakis (Moonstruck, still doing a lot of acting) (80 on 6/20)
Joe Flaherty (SCTV, Happy Gilmore) (70 on 6/21)
Kurt Warner (NFL QB, recently on Dancing With the Stars) (40 on 6/22)
Ricky Gervais (now working on a TV show called Life’s Too Short) (50 on 6/25)

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

WHOO! From this weekend on, there's at least one movie I really want to see, so the summer is really starting, especially after being disappointed in The Hangover Part 2 and Super 8 (although X-Men was a great surprise).

And I think Bad Teacher should be able to hit $20M this weekend, it's the legs that it has to worry about.

[Buscemi]

1. Cars 2 $80 million
2. Green Lantern $20 million
3. Bad Teacher $14 million
4. Super 8 $12 million
5. Mr. Popper's Penguins $11 million
-- The Art of Getting By $0.175 million (yes, there will be a movie with a bigger second week drop that Green Lantern)

[W]

I KNEW that I'd seen Joe Flaherty somewhere before when I watched Freaks and Geeks last year. He's the guy on Happy Gilmore that said "Ja-ckass!" all the time.

[Buscemi]

"You know who used to cut class? Jimi Hendrix. Know what happened to him? He died. Choking on his on vomit." - Mr. Weir, with that unmistakable Canadian accent.

Speaking about Freaks and Geeks, John Francis Daley (Sam Weir) co-wrote Horrible Bosses. And Sam will tell you that Elvis died sitting on the toilet.

[W]

"You know those Sex Pistols? They spit on their audience! Yep, that's what I wanna do. Spend my hard earned money to be spit on. Now that's entertainment."

"Korea. [sighs] Well, one day, I, uh, went into Seoul on a weekend pass. And I went to this bar. And I had a few too many. And I followed a couple of my buddies to the red-light district." "It was the worst $5 I've ever spent. And I wish I could get that $5 back."

I loved their parents. They reminded me a little bit of my favorite TV parents, Red and Kitty Forman.

[Chienfantome]

Indeed Shryke, I did see The Names of Love aka Le Nom des Gens, and let me tell you it was one of the finest french film I saw in 2010. It's a smart comedy about love and politics, which could seem like a strange mix, but feels natural in it. I don't really know how it could fare in the US, as it deals with the French view on politics, and especially the left wing politics... But it should garner very good reviews.

[numbersix]

Cars 2 will probably get the worst reviews of a Pixar movie in years, but it will still get over 70% overall. I suspect it won't have the same kind of legs as Pixar (HP8 and the Smurfs will put a dent in that).
Not sure about Bad Teacher, the marketing has been quite good, but I don't see it doing that well.

As for PTa, another week that's left me unsure. 4 theatres for a Weitz film might do well, although he's not a "known" director. I'd say it should get 2 or 3 PTA points, and the Names of Love getting something also.

1. Cars 2 $76 million
2. Green Lantern $21 million
3. Bad Teacher $20 million
4. Super 8 $13 million
5. Mr. Popper's Penguins $10 million

[englishozzy]

Were getting a load of exposure for Cars 2 over here and i must admit i will be one of the first in line to watch it. It's obvious it wont do as well as there previous outings but i still expect a good OW.

1. Cars 2 $82 million
2. Green Lantern $23 million
3. Bad Teacher $18 million
4. Super 8 $14 million
5. Mr. Popper's Penguins $9 million

[thswrestler160]

Shryke if you really were wondering why pixar green lit Cars 2 over the more obvious choices like Incredibles that would be because while the original Cars was kind of a low earner for disney and pixar at the box office it made in excess of 5 BILLION dollars in toys and merchandise. Low box office but the Cars property is almost as valuable as Avatar

[undeadmonkey]

Shryke if you really were wondering why pixar green lit Cars 2 over the more obvious choices like Incredibles that would be because while the original Cars was kind of a low earner for disney and pixar at the box office it made in excess of 5 BILLION dollars in toys and merchandise. Low box office but the Cars property is almost as valuable as Avatar

this.


I don't know how many of you have been in a toy store of late, as i know i hadn't been in years. but i was in Toys RUS about 6 months ago, before Cars 2 was even really being marketed, and there was Cars merchandise everywhere. From the obvious toy cars, to school stuff, clothing, all the way to a lightening mcqueen bed for kids, it was out of hand.

[Geezer]

Yeah, I've often wondered to myself while walking through Target why there is still so much Cars merchandise, years after its release. Answer has to be as simple as: the stuff just sells.

[Buscemi]

Disney and Pixar have made over $5 billion on Cars. The franchise prints money.

[Shrykespeare]

I still hope there's a sequel to The Incredibles someday. I'm guessing Pixar is waiting for the superhero craze to die down a little (assuming that ever happens).

[Chienfantome]

I have nothing against an Incredibles sequel, but there is too much sequels in the works at pixar right now, they need to give us some fresh air too. Why not space them more...