SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/17/11

[Shrykespeare]

As anticipated, Super 8 won the box office crown this past weekend with a decent if unspectacular draw of $37 million. Meanwhile, The Hangover Part II was able to not only pass $200 million, but also passed Fast Five and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides to become, for the moment anyway, the highest-grossing film of 2011 thus far. (Cars 2, Transformers 3 and Harry Potter will probably all do better than that, however.) And Tree of Life just continues to steamroll its PTA competition, placing #1 on that chart for the third straight week, though last week’s The Trip was able to glean four points on its own.

The most anticipated section of the summer is coming up fast. With the aforementioned Cars 2, Transformers 3 and Harry Potter all opening in the four weekends following this one, the ticket counters will probably get that excited throng of filmgoers that it was supposed to get in May, but didn’t). Until then, however, we’ve got four more films to talk about, and two of them are coming in wide-release.

The most notable title coming this Friday is Green Lantern, the third of four superhero flicks to come out this summer (though the only one based on a character from DC Comics and not Marvel). It, too, is an origin story, and one I am actually glad to see. I was an avid comic-book collector as a youth, but for some reason, Green Lantern was one character I never really got into. I can’t even explain why… perhaps it just because he wasn’t as cool as Batman or as famous as Superman.

Director Martin Campbell has made his mark by being the driving force behind some very successful action franchises. He was behind the camera for both Zorro films starring Antonio Banderas, as well as arguably the two best Bond films in the last two decades (GoldenEye, Casino Royale). Though Green Lantern is his first venture into the supernatural, he seems an apt fit to bring this character, which has been around since 1940, to life.

The premise: for millennia, a secret force has kept tabs on the universe, made up of representatives from many different worlds. Called the Green Lantern Corps, they protect the universe and keep order from evil forces that threaten to destroy that balance. When a new enemy, known as Parallax, surfaces to threaten Earth and all of humanity, the Corps decides that the time has come, despite their innate dislike of Earthlings, to recruit their first human into their ranks.

Enter Hal Jordan (Ryan Reynolds), a cocky test pilot who finds the crashed wreckage of a spacecraft bearing a dying member of the Corps, who gives him a “Power Ring”, with which he may use to bring to life whatever is in his mind. Though reluctant at first, Hal is brought to the Lanterns’ world to begin his training, a training that he must complete before Parallax can complete its destructive mission. Co-starring with Reynolds are Blake Lively, Mark Strong, Peter Sarsgaard, Angela Bassett, Tim Robbins (good to see him again), and the voices of Geoffrey Rush and Michael Clarke Duncan.

Warner Bros. has done a terrific job in advertising this film. Billboards and posters are everywhere, trailers have accompanied pretty much every movie I’ve seen in the last two months, and there are even doing a cross-promotional tie-in with Subway, which has more outlets in the U.S. than any other fast-food chain. Does that mean I think Green Lantern will pick up the slack of every film that has underperformed thus far? Well… not quite.

First off, Green Lantern is not a known property like X-Men is. And viewership will probably depend on their opinion of the CGI they’ve seen in the trailers, which looks pretty decent (to me, anyway). I have not read any reviews, so that might also be a factor. It will run you only $19 in the June Ultimate Leagues ($20 in Box Office). I envision an OW of just over $50 million, on its way to eleven Top 5 points, three PTA (in over 3,600 theaters), a passable Rating in the low 7’s, and $145 million. A very worthy pick for its low price tag, if you can slip it into your studio in between the three big boys coming in the next month.

Coincidentally, the other wide-release film this weekend is also an adaptation of a literary work from the same era as Green Lantern. Though the film version of Mr. Popper’s Penguins probably resembles the 1938 original children’s book in name only, it might be worth taking note of because it’s really the only family comedy of the month, and it stars former comedic phenom Jim Carrey in the titular role.

Tom Popper is a divorced businessman whose biggest “problem” seems to be that he values his career far more than his family, consisting of his ex-wife (Carla Gugino) and kids (Madeleine Carroll, Dylan Clark Marshall). However, when he inherits six penguins from a father he barely knew, his world is turned upside-down… and his New York apartment is turned into a snowy winter wonderland. Filmed on a sound stage with real gentoo penguins, Mr. Popper’s Penguins is Carrey’s first attempt to woo the family-comedy audience since 2008’s modestly successful Yes Man.

Again, I have seen no reviews of this film as of yet, but Carrey’s name still does have some pop left in it (heh), though I have to wonder how much chagrin Fox Studios felt at having to give this film, which would clearly have been better as a winter release, a summer date, probably to avoid having it compete with Happy Feet 2, which comes out this November. Still, little comedies like this are often a welcome respite from the huge-budget action films, and Mr. Popper’s Penguins could indeed make a splash (heh again). I just hope that it is more of a return to form for director Mark Waters, who impressed with Mean Girls and Freaky Friday in the early part of the last decade but failed miserably with his last two films (The Spiderwick Chronicles and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past).

This title will run you $14 in both the Ultimate and Box Office leagues. But for that, I think you will only end up with six Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA, and $65 million. If you are determined to have a family comedy on your studio, I think you’re far better off spending the extra $4 to get Zookeeper, which looks to be the big family comedy of summer 2011.

With My Afternoons For Margueritte packing up and moving to September, there are only two limited-release films coming out this Friday. Here is a little bit about them.

The Art of Getting By ($4 Ult, $3 BO) – Formerly entitled Homework, this romantic comedy stars former child actor Freddie Highmore (now 19), who you may remember from such films as Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Finding Neverland and the aforementioned Spiderwick Chronicles. Here, he plays George, a high-schooler who would rather slack off and draw doodles than do his homework. While he attempts to explore a relationship with Sally (Emma Roberts), a girl he has a crush on, George must find a way to determine the path of his life. Alicia Silverstone, Blair Underwood, Sam Robards, Michael Angarano, Blair Underwood and Rita Wilson co-star. (An interesting connection between this film and Larry Crowne, given that it stars Tom Hanks’ wife and Julia Roberts’ niece, huh?)

Discounting the fact that The Art of Getting By sounds a lot like an American version of the just-released English film Submarine, as well as the fact that it was showcased at Sundance to mixed reviews, you should know that it will be debuting in upwards of 500 theaters this Friday, which makes it an absolute no-no. That is too big a number to expect any PTA at all. If you decide to spend the $4 on it in Ultimate, you’ll be getting its 7.2 Rating and not much else. $3 in Box Office is more tempting, but I seriously doubt it will end up earning more than a few mil when all is said and done, which is just not enough.

Buck ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – Another Sundance entry, Buck is a documentary about the left Daniel M. “Buck” Brannaman, a horse trainer who was one of the primary inspirations for the main character in Nicholas Evans’ best-selling book The Horse Whisperer, as well as the feature film that was adapted from that book. Brannaman, who has spent his whole life around horses, is a proponent of the idea that horses can be trained to feel safe and secure around humans without having to first be “broken”.

IFC Films will be showcasing Buck in four theaters this Friday. And though there are only three reviews in the can at RT thus far (two positive), it seems clear that Buck is in line for some PTA points. Now, I’m not sure where those theaters are, but I would hope they are in a part of the country where the horse-lovers can come out and support it. Otherwise, I think it will have a hard time competing with the longevity of Tree of Life, Beginners and possibly The Trip as well.


My predictions for the weekend of June 17-19, 2011:

1. Green Lantern – $51 million
2. Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $23 million
3. Super 8 – $19 million
4. X-Men: First Class – $13 million
5. The Hangover Part II – $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out the month of June and the first half of 2011 with five more films, set to debut on June 24th: Cars 2, the latest animated behemoth from the geniuses at Pixar; Bad Teacher, a raunchy adult comedy starring Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel; as well as limited-release films A Better Life, Around June and The Names of Love.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Chris Evans (Captain America: The First Avenger) (30 on 6/13)
Stellan Skarsgard (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo) (60 on 6/13)
Boy George (Culture Club lead singer) (50 on 6/14)
Marla Gibbs (Florence on TV’s The Jeffersons) (80 on 6/14)
Joe Piscopo (beefy comedian, former SNL alum) (60 on 6/17)

Later!

[Shrykespeare]

Anyone else think Green Lantern's got $50M in it?

[undeadmonkey]

I would say $40M at most. but i would go see it though.

[numbersix]

I think the Green Lantern looks awful. The design is terribly camp, and Reynolds has this idiotic expression throughout. I think at best it will perform like a Fantastic 4 film. Mr. Popper's Penguins seems like a disaster and I'd be surprised to see it open above 20 mil

As for PTA, avoid Art of Getting by, and as for Buck.... I'm not sure, but it could nab a point or two

1. Green Lantern – $42 million
2. Mr. Popper’s Penguins – $18 million
3. Super 8 – $17 million
4. X-Men: First Class – $13 million
5. Kung Fu Panda II – $11 million

[englishozzy]

Im with Six, i just dont like the look of the film and its got flop written all over it, i also think Mr. Popper's Penguins might do more than you guys think. Over here there is advertisment for the film everywhere i look.

1. Green Lantern - $39 million
2. Mr. Popper's Penguins - $25 million
3. Super 8 - $19 million
4. X-Men: First Class - $10 million
5. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $9 million

[transformers2]

I say Green Lantern does 35 mil at the best, the camp value is going to bring it down for sure. I say Mr.Popper's Penguins has a pretty good shot of winning the weekend. I really like it's odds as a surprise hit.

[undeadmonkey]

Green Lantern might not do great, but Mr Popper's is not going to to beat it. and not that it's ever been consistent or reliable, but Green Lantern is still tracking to open in the mid $50M.

[Geezer]

What a shitty weekend. Let's hope Super 8 makes a miraculous hold and beats these two stinkers.

[Chienfantome]

That would be fun indeed, Geez !

[Buscemi]

The first reviews are in for Green Lantern...and they're not good. Reviews point out many problems with the choice of lead (hopefully this means the end of Ryan Reynolds showing up in nearly every comic book movie), the script (headed by the incredibly stupid choice of Greg Berlanti, whose main credits are Grey's Anatomy and last year's Life As We Know It) and the direction.

But the good news is that the person at DC who greenlighted it is already gone (fired after Jonah Hex got massacred by critics). However, a sequel is being written...by the same guy mentioned above.

[Shrykespeare]

"Nearly every comic book movie"?

What besides Wolverine and Blade: Trinity has he done that was a comic book? Smokin' Aces was turned into a comic book, but not until after the release of the movie. Yes, he's got a Deadpool spinoff movie coming, but jeez, Chris Evans has been in way more comic book films than Ryan.

[Buscemi]

It's a slight exaggeration but Reynolds and Evans seem to be the only two people considered a lot of the time. Not helping is that Reynolds really did audition for every comic book lead until he got one.

Makes you wonder why they didn't give the role to Chris Pine like it was rumored.

[silversurfer19]

I get the feeling the reviews have been held off for as long as physically possible so that it will limit the damage to it's OW, as once the bad word of mouth kicks in I think the movie is gonna drop like a bomb. Still don't see it getting close to a $50m weekend which has been predicted in some quarters, especially considering a well known franchise like X-Men could only muster $55m, as well as the obvious comic book fatigue setting in.

[Chienfantome]

Anyone else being unable to login on mogul game site ?

[W]

I just tried and can't.