SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/10/11

[Shrykespeare]

It’s been a strange, disappointing year, hasn’t it? I mean, I’m not saying that it’s been crap piled on crap, but there really haven’t been any spectacular films. And even the good ones haven’t broken out at the box office like they have in past years. Consider: so far, only one film has eclipsed $200 million as of this past weekend, that being Fast Five, which just today passed that milestone, and it is very likely that Hangover Part II and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides will get there in the next week. But Thor will not get there, Kung Fu Panda 2 will not get there, and X-Men: First Class will probably not get there either. Bridesmaids has been the only real surprise hit of the entire year, achieving blockbuster status and nearly doubling my predicted result.

When the year started – perhaps even as early as a couple of months ago – the films with the highest box office potential were Cars 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. These were the films, based on past history, that had the greatest possibility of hitting that vaunted $300 million mark. Oh, they still might, but with numbers down consistently and very nearly across the board, and with close to “surefire” hits tanking, I can only wonder if even the surest bets are not immune to poor performance.

What the future holds for future movies will have to wait. For the weekend of June 10th, five more movies will vie for superiority either in wide release or in limited release. Will any of them become world-beaters? Not likely. But one never truly knows when a surprise hit will spring up and vault your studios over your competition, which is why every film on the docket is worth mentioning here. The most notable film coming this weekend is Super 8, a film from Paramount joining the considerable abilities of director J.J. Abrams (Star Trek) and producer Steven Spielberg.

The film takes place in a small steel-town in Ohio in 1979. From the looks of the trailer, this setting, along with the youth of the primary actors in the cast, it would seem that Super 8 is an attempt to recapture some of the magic from Spielberg’s glory days, most notably E.T. The Extra Terrestrial. However, this is no cute, squashy alien coming a-calling. Something very sinister is about to cast a pall over this quiet town, and that has Abrams’ fingerprints all over it.

The main character is Joe Lamb (Joel Courtney, making his big-screen debut), who has just lost his mother in a steel-mill accident and is finding himself growing apart from his father Jackson (Kyle Chandler). He spends most of his time with his friends (including Elle Fanning, Dakota’s sister, playing Joe’s crush Alice), and as a group they have decided to film a low-budget zombie movie on an 8 mm film-camera – known as “Super 8”, hence the title. One night, while filming, an Air Force train derails near their town, and soon after, strange things start happening. People start disappearing, and before a heavy military presence rolls into town. It seems clear that something large and malevolent was on that train, and is responsible for all the mayhem that ensuesd.

I’ve read a couple of reviews for Super 8 (currently at 85% on 17/20 positive), and they agree that while the film does lack a little bit of the magic from Spielberg’s best work, it is a wonderfully-shot, superbly-acted film, which seems to be the norm for Abrams’ projects. However, I cannot shake the nagging feeling that Super 8’s final numbers will be less than even the less-than-stellar numbers put up by the two superhero flicks bookending it, X-Men: First Class and Green Lantern.

Super 8 – which is debuting on 3,200 screens – will run you $21 in both the June Ultimate and Box Office leagues. For that, however, I would expect only nine Top 5 points at the most. I think it will put up about $33 million in its OW, just enough to grab the #1 spot, but with some potent films coming down the line, I think Super 8 will fade fairly fast, though I expect a decent Rating. It may also grab a handful of PTA and $100 million, which makes it a so-so pick at best.

Up next is Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer, a kids’ flick from Relativity Media that will be bowing in 2,000 locations this Friday. Based on the popular book series by author Megan McDonald, the film stars Heather Graham, Jaleel White, and Australian newcomer Jordana Beatty in the titular role.

Judy Moody is a precocious third-grader who is determined to have the “best summer ever” with the help of her younger brother Stink (Parris Mosteller) and her free-spirited but accident-prone aunt Opal (Graham). She does this through a series of dares and acquisition of “thrill points”, which becomes a contest with her friends. Determined to end the summer with the most points, Judy, Stink and Opal must, through a series of misadventures, find a way to make Judy’s summer wish come true.

It looks like harmless enough summer fun, but Judy Moody has three things seeming to go against it: first, its 2,000-theater platform is not indicative of a high opening (unless you're Tyler Perry); secondly, from the reviews I’ve read, it seems like the kind of movie that will delight anyone under ten but bore the crap out of anyone over it; and thirdly, Relativity are not known for their terrific ad campaigns, and I have barely seen any plugs for this movie at all… though for all I know, they are showing trailers every five minutes on Nickelodeon and the Disney Channel.

With the May blockbusters cooling off, it’s possible that Judy Moody may crack the Top 5, but I don’t think it will happen. It’s only $7 in Ultimate ($6 in Box Office), but for that price tag, I’d expect a lot more than what Judy Moody will give you, which is basically nothing in all four categories. An $8 million OW and $22 million overall? Pass by this one at warp speed.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release films:

The Trip ($4 Ult, $2 BO)– Last November, a six-episode sitcom debuted on BBC entitled The Trip. Directed by Michael Winterbottom, it starred English comedic actors/impressionists Steve Coogan and Rob Brydon, basically playing fictionalized versions of themselves as they take a restaurant tour of northern England. Since then, the show, which is part-scripted, part-improvisation, has won a BAFTA award, and it has also been cobbled together into a feature film, which debuted at last year’s Toronto Film Festival. It has also been showcased at the Tribeca and San Francisco Film Festivals as well.

On paper, this film looks a damn sight better than Winterbottom’s previous outing, last year’s insipid The Killer Inside Me. I’m not sure how many theaters will be premiering it this Friday, but given that it is IFC Films that is distributing it, I would venture that it won’t be that many. It’s gotten mostly favorable reviews so far (5/7 at RT) and has a very decent Rating (7.2 on over 300 votes). I would be surprised if The Trip garnered no PTA points at all, so for $4, it might be worth the gamble.

The Troll Hunter ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This is a Norwegian film (renamed TrollHunter for American audiences) shot in mockumentary-form, like it was filmed for Norway’s version of Spike TV. It centers on a group of students who are out to make a documentary about a famed bear poacher named Hans, but things take a turn for the crazy when the entire group gets pursued by giant monsters that appear to be trolls, mythical creatures from Scandinavian folklore that do not like human beings (especially Christians), to put it mildly.

The trailer actually looks pretty cool, but will audiences think so? The Troll Hunter will be debuting on only one screen this Friday and slightly more in the upcoming weeks, and critics have been mostly favorable towards it (9/12 on RT). It also has a very good Rating (7.2 with nearly 7,000 votes) that is unlikely to change much. It seems iffy for PTA points, but you just never know about a wild-card pick like this one.

Viva Riva! ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – Though this film sounds Spanish, it was actually filmed in the African Republic of the Congo, and Music Box Features has it debuting in three theaters this Friday. The languages of choice are Lingala (Congo’s national language) and French, shown with English subtitles. Viva Riva! is a crime thriller that centers on a fuel shortage taking place in the Congolese capital of Kinshasa. Riva (Patsha Bay) hatches a plan to obtain a secret cache of fuel that he intends to sell for a huge profit, but standing in his way is Cesar, a crime lord who rules the streets of Kinshasa with an iron fist. Complicating matters is Nora, Riva’s old flame who now “belongs” to Cesar.

African films are tough to predict on American soil. Yes, The First Grader was able to nab a couple of PTA points, but that was mostly due to lack of competition. Viva Riva!’s competition is only slightly stiffer, but if it helps you make your mind up, the film received 12 nominations at Africa’s version of the Oscars, winning six, including Best Picture, Director and Cinematography. It’s few reviews at RT have all been positive, and its current Rating (6.8 with only 71 votes) may yet improve. If you’ve only $3 left to spend and one slot open on your roster, you may consider filling it with this.


My predictions for the weekend of June 10-12, 2011:

1. Super 8 - $33 million
2. X-Men: First Class - $29 million
3. The Hangover Part II - $15 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $14 million
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $10 million
6. Bridesmaids - $9 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the third Friday of June, and five more films that it will bring, including: Green Lantern, an adaptation of the DC Comics superhero starring Ryan Reynolds; Mr. Popper’s Penguins, a family comedy starring Jim Carrey; as well as limited-release features The Art of Getting By (formerly Homework), My Afternoons With Margueritte and Buck.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Anna Kournikova (tennis hottie) (30 on 6/7)
Bonnie Tyler (singer) (60 on 6/8)
Natalie Portman (Thor, no projects upcoming at the moment) (30 on 6/9)
Michael J. Fox (Back to the Future) (50 on 6/9)
Jackie Mason (comedian) (80 on 6/9)
Marv Albert (sportscaster) (70 on 6/12)

Later!

[Buscemi]

For the openers, I'll predict $35 million on Super 8 and $5 million on Judy Moody (is there even any interest for this movie?).

Weekend:
1. Super 8 $35 million
2. X-Men: First Class $31 million
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 $13 million
4. The Hangover Part II $12 million
5. Pirates of the Caribbean $9 million
6. Bridesmaids $8 million
7. Judy Moody $5 million

[Shrykespeare]

No comments yet? Wow...


Anyway, here are the official theater counts:

Super 8 - 3,379
Judy Moody - 2,524
The Trip - 6
Viva Riva! - 3
Troll Hunter - 1 (according to the film's official site)

Midnight in Paris expands to 944 locations, so further PTA points would seem to be unlikely.



Estimates for next week:

Green Lantern - 3,600+
Mr. Popper's Penguins - 3,200
The Art of Getting By - 500+
Buck - 4

[Ron Burgundy]

Super 8 will have a decent OW, i think people will hear about the positive reviews and start flocking late , prob Sunday. But for $21 ive taken it off all my slates, which might be a decision i regret, especially in Ultimate where the imdb rating will be 7.5+ and PTA can go for 7+, Top 5 should be around 10, but the real question is the final BO, where you said 100Mil, im thinking 150m+ if the WOM is good, which it will be.

1. Super 8 -39M
2. X-Men -30M
3. Hangover 2 -15M
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 -12M
5. Pirates -10M

Not much different apart from Super 8

[silversurfer19]

As much as I loved Super 8 , I just don't see that big a draw. It doesn't really have a great demographic, considering most of its audience will be the 25-35 range and they generally don't go the cinema all that often. And to top it off it's theatre count isn't huge, while I know they were doing free screenings on Wednesday and Thursday to boost awareness. I want it to succeeed, and I think it will have great legs despite its competition in following weeks, but it's OW will certainly struggle to top $35m, in fact I'm not even betting on it getting much past $30m.

Midnight In Paris, however, should prove to be a great pick, as it's already collected plenty of PTA and by the weekend it should have surpassed $10m in BO recepits with plenty more to come. Not bad for a $5 movie.

[Chienfantome]

Midnight in Paris will start collecting the $$$ indeed. I'm glad I put it in most of my slates.
As for Super 8, we will see if the great word of mouth the film could have will boost it along the weeks. I grabbed it in several slates.

[Shrykespeare]

Sadly, the only slate I have Super 8 on is Bankrupts. It seemed like one of the safest high-dollar films to take, and I had to pick at least two. The other was POTC 4, which, I know, has done pretty well, but when you think about it, 10 Top 5 and 5 PTA are not that good for a film that cost $29 bucks. I'm hoping Super 8 will pull in similarly disappointing numbers.

All of my other wide-release films (Priest, Judy Moody, Monte Carlo, Winnie the Pooh) are guaranteed to not win their weekend. Judy Moody won't even be in the Top 5), and my other two films are limited-release films that I'm hoping won't get any PTA.

[Buscemi]

Early Friday Estimates:

Super 8 $11 million ($30 million weekend)
X-Men: First Class $9-10 million

[W]

Deadline bumped it up to 11/35 for Super 8 and downgraded First Class's second weekend to 7.5/23. They have Hangover at a 6 M Friday, what's that, like a 18.5 M weekend?

[Buscemi]

The week's other opener, Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer, is estimated to have a $5.5 million opening weekend.

And Super 8 should make profit for Paramount. The reported budget is only $50 million.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

Super 8, $12.2M (+$1 midnight screenings from Thu)
X-Men: First Class, $7.6M
Hangover 2, $5.7M
Kung Fu Panda 2, $4.6M
Pirates 4, $3.1M
Bridesmaids, $3M
Judy Moody, $2.2M
Thor, $673K
Fast Five, $512K

Tree of Life, $229K (looks like another possible PTA win)


Weekend Projections (BoxOffice.com)

Super 8, $34M
X-Men, $24.5M
Hangover 2, $17.3M
Panda 2, $16.5M
Pirates 4, $10.8M
Bridesmaids, $10M
Judy Moody, $6M
Thor, $2.3M
Fast Five, $1.7M

[Chienfantome]

Yeah, The Tree of life keeps the PTA coming !!

[Ron Burgundy]

I hate predicting PTA, though somehow i knew Tree of Life and MIdnight in Paris would do well, but why didnt i put it on all my slates! Vicky Cristina Barcelona was basically a Template for Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen is PTA gold. But then again, how do predict something like Phil Ochs? I mean, you pretty much have to check the screen counts every Friday and prepare to change your slate and even then its no surefire guarantee.

[Buscemi]

Midnight in Paris had a $1.6 million Friday and should have a Saturday increase (the showing I went to yesterday was three-fourths full and it was only the first show of the day).

[numbersix]

Simple rule for PTA is to watch theatre count and reviews. If it opens ina few theatres and has stellar review chances are it'll get some PTA points.

Note Woody Allen isn't always a PTa Champ. Cassandra's Dream got poor reviews and made little in therm of PTA points from what I remember. You Will Meet... and Whatever Works did well in their opening weekends but again mixed reviews made them over-priced.