SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/26/11, 5/27/11

[silversurfer19]

Currently at 36% on RT and dropping too...

[Geezer]

Remember, Boush thought the first Hangover would be the biggest flop of the century...

He's still holding the grudge

[W]

Currently at 36% on RT and dropping too...

It's got a 66% on Metacritic, the reviews on both sites say "more of the same." KFP2 is 92% RT and 77 MC.

[silversurfer19]

Take note though that for the moment at least it seems to be the movies which have been best reviewed that are performing well in BO. And while I'm hardly saying The Hangover will underperform, I have found it interesting that audiences seem to be responding to critical reviews. Maybe the suggested poor word of mouth will put off viewers and possibly drive them to go see Bridesmaids (in the comedy genre) or to hang around and wait for X-Men (which seems to have received very good reviews so far).

[numbersix]

I think the only real impact critical consensus has is on the legs of a film. Even with these reviews The Hangover will open high, but if the reviews are as bad as they seem to be so far, I wouldn't expect it to make beyond $200 mil cume.

[Buscemi]

I'm really not getting how The Hangover Part II is tracking much higher than Kung Fu Panda 2, seeing how Kung Fu Panda 2 is getting much better reviews (since they actually advanced the story and came up with new elements and obstacles for the characters to face) and has had more marketing. Also, The Hangover Part II isn't a four quadrant film since no parent of a young child would take their kid to watch it.

[Brockster]

I think kids movies have been historically hard to track...that's the only conclusion I can come to.

[numbersix]

Yeah look at the tracking of Gnomeo and Juliet (tracking was way under) and Mars Needs Moms (way over). I still think KFP2 will win the weekend.

[Brockster]

According to the forums over at HSX The Hangover II made about 8-9M last night at the midnight shows.

Meanwhile, KFP2 did 35% less in it's midnight shows than KFP1 did. Although we do need to take into account that KFP1 came out on a Friday, not Thursday, for what its worth.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater Counts:

Kung Fu Panda 2 - 3,925
The Hangover 2 - 3,615
The Tree of Life - 4

[Brockster]

I'm loving the low theater count for TTOL

[Shrykespeare]

According to BoxOffice.com, The Hangover 2 pulled in over $31M on Thursday, while Kung Fu Panda 2 only pulled in $5.8M.

That's pretty underwhelming, but look for KPF2 to have a terrific Fri-Sun. It's a family film, so expect parents to take their kids to see it droves (I don't imagine Thursday works into people's schedules quite as well).

Their predictions for this weekend:

Hangover 2, $100M
KFP2, $90M
POTC 4, $42M
Bridesmaids, $17M
Thor, $8M
Fast Five, $6.2M
Rio, $2.6M
Jumping the Broom, $2.4M
Something Borrowed, $2.2M
Midnight in Paris, $2.0M (expanding from 6 to 58 locations)


Estimated theater counts for next week:

X-Men: First Class - 3,400
Beginners - 5
Beautiful Boy - 4
Submarine - 4
Love, Wedding, Marriage - 2

[W]

Wow... That Thursday just gave me a shot in the Regular BO league. Does the 90 M include the four day weekend? And does the league include Monday stats?

[Brockster]

It's going to be really close, but I think you may have it W...I switched to the Hangover last second too.

[Buscemi]

And Bridesmaids actually went up on Thursday. Good counter-programming?