SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/26/11, 5/27/11

[Shrykespeare]

It should not come as a much of a shock that Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides raked in just over $90 million this past weekend… after all, I predicted as much, and you should always listen to me. Well, maybe 60% of the time, anyway. (Wink.) However, I would wager that before the summer is over, Pirates’ huge OW will be no higher than fourth on the list, as there are at least three other films coming that I expect to eclipse $100 million on their OWs… but all in good time. Having actually seen the fourth Pirates film, I doubt that many people will remember much about it by the time July is done. And kudos to anyone with the foresight to pick Midnight in Paris, which dominated in the PTA race this weekend with nearly $100K per theater, an all-time high for a Woody Allen film, and a shoo-in to earn more points this week, one would think.

There are three film coming out this weekend, the weekend that encompasses the Memorial Day holiday: two huge big-budget films that are much-anticipated sequels to highly successful films, and one limited-release film from a critically-acclaimed director that has already begun to rake in the kudos. Jack Sparrow and Woody Allen had better watch their backs.

(Note: If you are reading this, please be sure to watch your e-mail inboxes for word of the creation of the 2nd-half HY Super Leagues, which will start with the June-August leagues. I will be creating them this week, so do yourselves and me a favor by getting in early. This will probably happen no later than Wednesday of this week.)

Both of this week’s wide-release films will be opening on Thursday, May 26th, in order to have its debut comprise a five-day opening weekend. The first of these is Kung Fu Panda 2, the sequel to the highly successful Kung Fu Panda, the 2008 DreamWorks animated hit that earned over $215 million domestically and $631 million internationally, making it the studio’s fourth-largest gross in their history (after Shrek 2, 3 and 4). In that film, the world was introduced to Po the Panda (Jack Black), the clumsy, overweight panda bear who was selected to be the “Dragon Warrior”, the chosen one who would eventually defeat the evil snow leopard Tai Lung.

Now a kung fu master, Po serves as protector to the Valley of Peace along with Master Shifu (Dustin Hoffman) and the “Furious Five”, comprised of Tigress (Angelina Jolie), Monkey (Jackie Chan), Viper (Lucy Liu), Mantis (Seth Rogen) and Crane (David Cross). A new enemy arises to challenge them in the form of an emperor albino peacock named Lord Shen (Gary Oldman), who threatens to take over China, while armed with a weapon that is said to be so powerful that it “threatens kung fu itself”. James Hong returns as Po’s father Mr. Ping, and other familiar, er, voices joining the cast include Michelle Yeoh, Dennis Haysbert, Danny McBride, Victor Garber and… Jean-Claude Van Damme?! Okay, this film just got EVEN COOLER…

As I said earlier, there are a few films this summer that I fully expect to break $100 million in its opening weekend, and this is one of them. It is one of the few DreamWorks films that has held up remarkably well since its original release, and the sequel should have no trouble eclipsing the original’s dollar total. I look for Kung Fu Panda 2 to earn $107 million between Friday and Sunday this weekend, a total of $153 million in the five-day weekend, and $320 million overall.

This film, which will debut in over 3,500 locations, will run you only $29 in the May Ultimate leagues and $31 in the Box Office. Will its eventual total intake be as high as that of the next Transformers movie or the last Harry Potter film? In the long run, perhaps not. But in the May leagues, you will have those two films for only a month or less, and there is nothing coming in June, save perhaps Cars 2, that has a chance to do as well as Kung Fu Panda 2. Apart from the sheer volume of dollars it will earn, I think it will also bring you thirteen Top 5 points, six PTA and a very respectable User Rating, somewhere in the high 7’s (the original’s UR was 7.7). How would I rate this as a pick for your slates? To quote Po himself: “Awesome.”

One year (almost to the day) after the debut of Kung Fu Panda came a little film called The Hangover. I remember thinking, before its release, that it could indeed become a sleeper hit and enjoy modest success, perhaps earning $60-$70 million. Turns out, I wasn’t even freaking close. And neither was anyone else. Honestly, NOBODY could have predicted that The Hangover would earn $277 million domestically ($467 million worldwide), become the sixth-biggest film of the year, and become nothing short of a phenomenon, still regarded as one of the funniest films ever made… and all on the backs of a somewhat-no-name cast and a budget of $35 million.

Considering that there were no household names (at the time) in the cast (save perhaps Mike Tyson, whose career and public image resurged mightily after his hysterical cameo appearance), The Hangover became a tremendous exception to a well-traveled rule, that R-rated films just don’t do that well. It takes a concept as new and fresh as this one to grab a nation’s attention by the balls and not let go. And the concept was a brilliant one: three guys, preparing for their best friend’s upcoming wedding, treat him to a night’s debauch in Las Vegas. Flash forward to the next morning, when the three guys must find a way to piece together what happened, because they got so blotto that they can’t remember any of it. I won’t elaborate further, because I know for a fact that ALL of you saw the film. (You did, RIGHT???)

The question everyone is asking regarding The Hangover Part II is… can EXACTLY the same premise work a second time? That’s right, director Todd Phillips has brought together the same bunch of guys, and they will be waking up a second time with no memory of the night before. What has changed? Well, the location, for one… instead of Vegas, Phil (Bradley Cooper), Alan (Zach Galifianakis) and Stu (Ed Helms) find themselves in Thailand, and this time, it is Stu that is getting married, not Doug (Justin Bartha).

Not wanting a repeat-performance of Vegas, Stu has opted for a “safe, subdued pre-wedding brunch” to prepare for his upcoming nuptials. Of course, things don’t go as planned (and why would they? That would be no fun!) and Phil, Alan and Stu wake up in Bangkok the next morning. This time: Alan’s head has been shaved bald, Stu is sporting a Tyson-esque facial tattoo, and there is a monkey in their room. Missing? Is the 16-year-old brother of Stu’s fiancee Lauren (Jamie Chung). You’ll all be glad to know that there will be a return appearance of Leslie Chow (Ken Jeong), one of the funniest and most memorable characters from the first Hangover as well. (“So long, gay boys!”) Mike Tyson is also reported to be back as well.

What can you say, really? The Hangover earned millions of fans, and since Phillips and Warner Bros. apparently didn’t monkey (pun intended) with the concept, I’m sure they will be lining up in droves to see Part II, which is aptly placed on the docket two weeks after the highly-successful adult comedy hit Bridesmaids and late June’s Bad Teacher. The original opened to $44 million and just kept on going. This time around, I foresee a much higher opening but shorter “legs”. Friday-to-Sunday should bring in $72 million, while the five-day weekend should see it barely crack $100 million.

The Hangover Part II is excellent counter-programming to kids’ flicks like Kung Fu Panda 2 and action films like Pirates 4 and X-Men: First Class. However, I think the chances of The Hangover Part II topping Kung Fu Panda 2 at any point in its run are slim. In the end, I predict ten Top 5 points, four PTA, a solid Rating in the low-to-mid 7’s, and $260 million. For $24 in Ultimate leagues, those are very good stats. For $25 in Box Office, this would be an excellent pick as well, if you can squeeze it in among the heavier hitters.

The one limited-release film this week is The Tree of Life, which will actually be opening on Friday in four locations. The release of this film is timely, as it was just awarded the coveted Palme d’Or award at the Cannes Film Festival, a vote spearheaded by jury member and president Robert De Niro. Tree was directed by Terrence Malick, whose previous works include Days of Heaven, The Thin Red Line and The New World.

To describe Malick’s films as “complex” would be an understatement, as many of his stories venture into the surreal, which is not surprising when you consider that Malick did his doctoral thesis in the field of philosophy, a subject he has previously taught at M.I.T. The Tree of Life seems to be no different, so I’ll have to paraphrase someone else’s words to describe the actual plot of the film.

The story centers on an 11-year-old Midwestern boy named Jack, who finds himself torn between the different philosophies of his parents (Brad Pitt, Jessica Chastain); dad wants Jack to adopt the attitude of always looking out for himself, whereas mom would prefer he travel down the road of compassion, love and mercy. At about this time, Jack is given his first glimpses of sickness and death, casting a dark shadow over his life.

We are then introduced to Jack as an adult (Sean Penn), a “lost soul” who is desperately looking for meaning in a modern world. Over the course of the film, Jack begins to find his life’s path as he begins to appreciate the miracle and beauty of birth, life, and death. From the trailer, it looks like the story is interspersed with images of astronomical phenomena, thus adding a more universal and cosmic angle to the story. (God, I hope I’m doing this film justice by this description.)

Does The Tree of Life have the chance to win the PTA crown over a behemoth like Kung Fu Panda 2? Well, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides opened with $90 million and still got its proverbial clock cleaned by Midnight in Paris. So the answer, in short, is yes, though I would be surprised if the margin between those two films is as great as it was this past weekend. Tree, like Midnight, should easily hold on for additional points in ensuing weeks. You should also know that critics have gone gaga for this film, which currently holds a tremendous 90% score at RT (on 28/31 positive reviews).

It’s rare for a limited-release film to cost more than $5 in Ultimate leagues, but the pricing panel felt confident enough in The Tree of Life’s potential to make it worth $6. For that extra dollar, you will probably end up with no fewer than eight Top 5 points, and perhaps as many as fifteen. It may also be worth spending $4 in Box Office, but only if that’s all you have left to spend after spending the other $96 on the bigger films. I hear tell that Tree might eventually go wide, but that probably won’t happen until early July, and probably not nearly wide enough to earn more than $15 million. Still, when you get down to your last few bucks in Box Office, you can’t be too choosy.


My predictions for the weekend of May 27-29, 2011:

1. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $107 million ($153 million 5-day)
2. The Hangover Part II - $72 million ($101 million 5-day)
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $43 million ($63 million 5-day)
4. Bridesmaids - $14 million ($22 million 5-day)
5. Thor - $8 million ($14 million 5-day)


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we turn the page and begin the second month of summer with three films, which are scheduled to debut on June 3rd: X-Men: First Class, a prequel to the previous Marvel superhero trilogy that explains the origins of the characters Professor X (James McAvoy) and Magneto (Michael Fassbender); Beginners, a drama starring Ewan McGregor, Christopher Plummer and Melanie Laurent; and Submarine, a dramatic comedy starring Craig Roberts, Sally Hawkins and Paddy Considine.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Bob Dylan (music legend) (70 on 5/24)
Matt Stone (South Park co-creator) (40 on 5/26)
Paul Bettany (Priest) (40 on 5/27)
Melissa Etheridge (rock singer) (50 on 5/29)

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll go with (doing four-day here):

1. Kung Fu Panda 2 $98 million ($113 million five-day)
2. The Hangover Part II $70 million ($87 million five-day) (I expect a good opening followed by a fast drop when people realize it's the exact same film as the first)
3. Pirates of the Caribbean $41 million
4. Bridesmaids $21 million (this could increase as audiences may see it as the real Hangover Part II)
5. Thor $15 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

You think Bridesmaids will have a 0% drop?

[Buscemi]

I'd did a four-day, not a three-day.

[thswrestler160]

yeah i doubt with hangover that bridesmaids will hold THAT strong but I Really doubt Thor will make 3 million more than it did this weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

You're right, wrestler... I mean to predict Thor would have an $8 million weekend, not $18. I have made the change above.

[numbersix]

All fair points. Hangover might do even better initially as it will be frontloaded. Tree of Life will no doubt be #1 for PTA this week, and perhaps next week depending on its expansion.


1. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $90 million ($130 million 5-day)
2. The Hangover Part II - $80 million ($105 million 5-day)
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $40 million ($60 million 5-day)
4. Bridesmaids - $16 million ($23 million 5-day)
5. Thor - $10 million ($15 million 5-day)

[Brockster]

Wow, did anybody since MTC? It has Hangover at 125M and Panda at 76M (5-day totals). Huh?!?!?

[numbersix]

I think MTC is way low on Panda. It's the first truly kids movie of the summer. Its 5-day should be over $100

[W]

I do think the Hangover II will outgross Panda on their OW and total.

[Shrykespeare]

Note: Since I only had three movies coming out next week, and since there have been some worthy additions to the roster since then, I have added the following movies (with the following Ult/BO prices):

6/3 Beautiful Boy ($4/$1)
6/3 Love, Wedding, Marriage ($3/$1)
6/17 My Afternoons With Margueritte ($3/$1)
6/24 The Names of Love ($3/$1)

[undeadmonkey]

i really don't think hangover 2 will beat kung fu panda for the weekend.

[Buscemi]

The Hangover Part II will have toxic word-of-mouth. Doing the same thing twice rarely works.

[Brockster]

Busc,

What if the movie is good? What if it's just as hilarious as the first? You keep saying it will have bad word of mouth...have you seen it yet to know it's not good?

The mass public doesn't care if it's just like the first, as long as it makes them laugh, they enjoy the movie, and they think it was worth their ticket price. If someone came out of the theater and said to me, "man, that was just like the first one," I would automatically think they meant it was hilarious. AND I'd be more excited to see it.

Austin Powers called, he said don't be such a movie snob.

[Buscemi]

But when has a sequel where they didn't escalate the stakes or advance the plot ever worked? Doing a sequel where nothing new happens is never fun.