SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/20/11

[Shrykespeare]

Not surprisingly, Thor wore the box office crown by default this past weekend. However, whatever dollar amount it ends up at, it’s looking like a pretty good pick, since it also repeated as the PTA champion. Given that only one major film comes out this week, it’s pretty safe to say that four more Top 5 points will be on tap this coming weekend, as well as perhaps more PTA points. Even if it fails to reach $200 million, no one can say that it hasn’t produced in every other category (even User Rating). And to those of you who picked Bridesmaids: good call. The female-centric comedy had a fairly impressive debut with over $24 million as well.

Last week, I thought that I was only going to have three films to talk about today. But with the 463rd postponement of the 2008 film Ranchero to July, it seems I will only have a miniscule two titles to discuss. Not that it really matters… I don’t think I’ve seen anyone brave enough to actually TAKE Ranchero, so I don’t have to worry about anyone not being able to reap its (ahem) benefits.

Obviously, any movie that has a summer weekend all by its lonesome is something that is worth examining. With Thor and Fast Five waning fast, the #1 spot is ripe for the picking, and look for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides to not only grab it with both hands, but look for it to have the highest OW of any film so far this year.

Interestingly enough, this fourth chapter of the POTC series is based loosely on a book, not a Disney theme park ride. In 1987 a historical fantasy novel called On Stranger Tides, penned by Tim Powers, hit the bookshelves. It did quite well and was nominated for several awards. And when I say “loosely”, I mean it. The story does involve the legendary Fountain of Youth and the notorious pirate Blackbeard, but there the similarities end.

It was four years ago that the last chapter, At World’s End, brought the overblown trilogy to an end. It also concluded the storyline of Will Turner and Elizabeth Swann, who – many of you will be glad to know – will not be appearing in this unexpected fourth chapter, which also featured a handing over of the directorial reins from Gore Verbinski to Rob Marshall, who thus far has made his bread and butter by directing mostly musicals and dramas (the Oscar-wining Chicago, Memoirs of a Geisha and Nine). An interesting choice by Disney, to be sure.

Of course, the main selling point of the Pirates movies has always been Johnny Depp and his colorful portrayal of Captain Jack Sparrow. In On Stranger Tides, we rejoin Jack’s escapades as he is reunited with a mysterious woman from his past named Angelica (Penelope Cruz), who talks him into joining forces with the pirate Blackbeard (the always-awesome Ian McShane) in searching for the Fountain of Youth. And naturally, it just wouldn’t be the same without Cap’n Jack’s piratic rival Barbossa (Geoffrey Rush) along for the ride, a ride that will also include mermaids and zombies. Note: the only other characters that return from the last chapter are Captain Teague (Keith Richards, who Depp based his character’s quirky mannerisms on) and stalwart sailor Gibbs (Kevin McNally).

Early reviews of On Stranger Tides have been somewhat mixed, with only 9/17 reviews in the can at RT being positive so far. Not that it matters: It would take simply horrible word-of-mouth to even put a dent in this May monster, a sequel that fans of the series probably wanted but never knew they needed until now. Hopefully this fourth installment can keep it simpler than the last two chapters and recapture the magic of the original. If it becomes widely accepted by the fans of the series, who knows how many more sequels there might be?

On Stranger Tides will be showcased in over 4,000 locations, including 3D. I look for it to earn a whopping $96 million in its first three days, on its way to $245 million (a conservative estimate, I know, but there will be a lot of competition coming in the next month), ten Top 5 points, six Top 5 points and a Rating around 7.7 (it’s currently at 8.1 with over 2,000 votes). For $29 in the May Ultimate leagues, there’s no doubt that this film will pay dividends. Will its final numbers be as impressive as similarly priced films Kung Fu Panda 2 and Transformers: Dark of the Moon? I honestly don’t think so. For $31 in Box Office, I must admit to having the same reservations, and only because even the best franchises show some signs of wear by the time it reaches its fourth chapter.

The only limited-release film that dares to take on Cap’n Jack and his crew is Midnight in Paris, the latest project from Hollywood icon Woody Allen. It is a romantic comedy of sorts, but there is also a tinge of fantasy – even science fiction, when you think about it – woven in. The film centers on Gil Pender (Owen Wilson), a struggling screenwriter who is visiting the French capital with his fiancée Inez (Rachel McAdams). When they just happen to run into Paul, an intellectual know-it-all who Inez once had a crush on (and still does, apparently), and his presence threatens to overwhelm their quality time, Gil decides to walk the streets of Paris both as a reprieve and as an escape. And boy, does he get it.

Turning a corner, Gil suddenly finds himself in Paris of the Roaring 20’s, where he is suddenly rubbing elbows with some of his artistic idols, including Salvador Dali (Adrien Brody), F. Scott Fitzgerald (Thor’s Tom Hiddleston), Ernest Hemingway (Corey Stoll), Gertrude Stein (Kathy Bates) and Pablo Picasso (Marcial Di Fonzo Bo). In this world, Gil is an equal, and he finds himself returning to it after midnight on a regular basis. This worries and perplexes Inez, especially after Gil becomes taken with a French woman named Adriana (Marion Cotillard).

Given an appropriate theater count, Midnight in Paris could be a PTA giant. Allen’s previous outing, You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger, managed three respectable weeks of PTA-gleaning. I do not have an exact number of screens that will be showcasing Midnight in Paris, but I can tell you that it will be debuting this Friday in only a handful of theaters in New York and Los Angeles. It will probably expand in the ensuing weeks, but how much is unknown.

Early reviews are quite encouraging (15/19 positive at RT), with many critics calling the film a “return to form” for Allen, who has struggled a bit in the last decade. Its current Rating is also very encouraging, with a score of 8.0 on 306 votes. It will cost you only $5 in the Ultimate leagues, and I daresay, if Pirates doesn’t win the PTA crown this week, Midnight in Paris will. I would venture that it has even more long-term PTA potential than Pirates does, but with three potential PTA giants coming next week, it’s tough to say for sure.


My predictions for the weekend of May 20-22, 2011:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $96 million
2. Thor - $18 million
3. Bridesmaids - $14 million
4. Fast Five - $10 million
5. Rio - $6 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out May with three films that will certainly be turning a lot of heads, though for very different reasons. First off, DreamWorks trots out Kung Fu Panda 2, which brings Jack Black’s ursine hero Po back to the big screen, and returning with him are all of the major characters (and voice actors) from the original. Also out is The Hangover Part II, the sequel to the surprise smash-hit of 2009 featuring Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms and Zach Galifianakis taking their drunken-bender-exploits to the foreign country of Thailand. And finally, notable director Terrence Malick brings his latest project, The Tree of Life, to theaters, with a cast topped by mega-stars Brat Pitt and Sean Penn.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Enya (Welsh singer) (50 on 5/17)
Al Franken (longtime SNL writer/comedian, known his character Stuart Smalley) (70 on 5/21)

Later!

[numbersix]

Only 2 films this week. That is slim. For Pirates I think the franchise is starting to sag, and this will earn lower than all of the first three, so about 250 cume is about right. As for Midnight in Paris, looking over Woody's past few films, they tend to open with a PTA of about 25k OW. So that means that if Pirates 4 doesn't earn $100+ mil in its opening weekend, Woody will. Still, considering next weekend it could only get a max of about 7 PTA points, so there may be better.

Predictions
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $100 million
2. Thor - $18 million
3. Bridesmaids - $17 million
4. Fast Five - $10 million
5. Priest - $6 million

PS Enya is Irish, not Welsh

[silversurfer19]

I kind of agree six, although I don't think Pirates will have any problems of reaching $100m in it's opening weekend, it will probably struggle to make a 3x multiplier. I'm still not sure if I should be kicking myself for dropping Bridesmaids at the last minute from all my slates. It has had a good opening weekend, but when all the big movies come out I think it will begin to drop quite solidly so will still probably stuggle to make $90m which in the BO leagues isn't good enough to make a winning slate, and in ULT will probably only garner 8 top 5's and 5 PTA. I guess that is solid, but I think I've managed to rearrange my slates enough to make more in all categories. Also, I'm not sure Thor has been that great a pick in BO. It won't get near $200m, so for it's cost it's definitely not worth it. In ULT though it's been a success in 3 of the 4 categories at least, but hopefully my decision to go with Kung Fu Panda instead holds out better as most animated movies have been (still surprised to see Rio picking up another point again this weekend!)

[Buscemi]

I can't see Pirates of the Caribbean taking in $100 million opening weekend. A lot of people hated the last movie and this sequel seems to scream cash grab (especially since the last movie tied up all loose ends). I'm going to say $90 million before a very fast drop.

[numbersix]

SS, I think picking Kung Fu over Thor is a wise decision. I dropped Thor from all of my BO Slates (usually replacing it with Pirates) but kept it on some Ultimate and I'm glad of my decision.

[Brockster]

I'm suprised The Beaver is still expanding this weekend (insert joke here), based on it's limited performance.

[Buscemi]

I noticed that the only theatre in St. Louis running it is already reducing it to two shows a day (paired with The Conspirator).

[undeadmonkey]

darn, i was hoping to see it.

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

POTC 4 - 4,155
Midnight in Paris - 6


Estimates for next week:

Kung Fu Panda 2 - 3,800
The Hangover 2 - 3,500+
The Tree of Life - 4

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

POTC 4, $35M
Bridesmaids, $6.4M
Thor, $4.4M
Fast Five, $3.1M
Priest, $1.4M
Something Borrowed, $1.2M
Rio, $1.1M
Jumping the Broom, $1M
Water For Elephants, $660K
Madea's BHF, $280K
Soul Surfer, $275K

Midnight in Paris, $171K ($28,500 PTA in one day... looked for the final PTA to be about $60-$70K, which will totally dominate all others)

[W]

The number that caught my eye was Bridesmaids. Mojo says that's only an 18.5% drop from last Friday.

[Chienfantome]

I'm definitely glad I put Midnight in Paris and Bridesmaids in most of my slates.

[undeadmonkey]

i really wish i had bridesmaids in more slates, but i'm just glad i dropped it from bankrupts. i think i have midnight in one or two slates as well.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Pirates 4, $90.1M
4 points - Bridesmaids, $21.1M
3 points - Thor, $15.5M
2 points - Fast Five, $10.6M
1 point - Rio, $4.6M
Priest, $4.6M
Jumping the Broom, $3.7M
Something Borrowed, $3.4M
Water For Elephants, $2.1M
Madea's BHF, $990K
Soul Surfer, $950K

PTA (Mar/Apr):
5 points - Midnight in Paris, $96K
4 points - Pirates 4, $21.6K
3 points - Bridesmaids, $7.2K
2 points - Born to Be Wild, $5K
1 point - Thor, $4K

PTA (May):
5 points - Midnight in Paris, $96K
4 points - Pirates 4, $21.6K
3 points - Bridesmaids, $7.2K
2 points - Thor, $4K
1 point - Jumping the Broom, $2.5K

[numbersix]

Midnight in Paris was Woody Allen's highest PTA opener of all time! Will be interesting to see its legs