SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Bridesmaids - 2,917
Priest - 2,864
Everything Must Go - 218
The First Grader - 3
Skateland - 2


Estimates for next week:

POTC 4 - 4,000
Midnight in Paris - N/A (NY/LA)
Ranchero - N/A

[Buscemi]

I've been reading Midnight in Paris will open in two theatres. That combined with good early word from Cannes (some have called it his best since Match Point, others have called it his best since Deconstructing Harry) should mean many PTA points.

[Chienfantome]

Reviews and word of mouth from Cannes are excellent for Midnight in Paris.

[numbersix]

76% on RT. I read the Guardian review and it sounds along the lines of his last film, in that it's above-average when comparing to his last decade of output. If it comes out in 2 theatres it should do well enough, though 5 PTA poins could be all it earns (4 OW, 1 the next weekend)

[Chienfantome]

The reviews are nothing like "You will meet a tall dark stranger". They were nice at best for that one, while the new one, there is true enthusiasm. It could do very good.

[numbersix]

Is there true enthusiasm, though. From what I've been reading people have been saying it's "good, but not great". Maybe the French critics just like seeing beloved Woody film Paris I expect the RT rating to drop over the next 2 weeks but we'll see

[Chienfantome]

You'd be surprised Six how most french critics expected nothing much of Midnight in Paris, and were more ready to debunk it because of Carla Bruni appearing in it. So I think they genuinely loved it. And they really LOVED it, and not just liked it. I'll try and catch the film in the coming days to see

[Buscemi]

Early numbers from Deadline:

Thor $25 million (I'd be surprised if it dropped this hard, since the Cinemascore was an A- and there isn't much else in the market right now)
Bridesmaids $20 million
Priest $17 million

However, Box Office Guru has conflicting numbers on Bridesmaids (he's saying $8 million Friday, $23 million weekend) and Priest ($5 million Friday, $13 million weekend). He probably has different numbers on Thor too.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

Thor, $9.1M
Bridesmaids, $7.8M
Fast Five, $5.9M
Priest, $5.6M
Something Borrowed, $2.3M
Jumping the Broom, $2M
Rio, $1.6M
Water For Elephants, $1.2M
Madea's BHF, $600K
Soul Surfer, $475K


Weekend Estimates (BoxOffice):

Thor, $31.5M
Bridesmaids, $22M
Fast Five, $18.5M
Priest, $14.3M
Something Borrowed, $7.3M
Jumping the Broom, $6.8M
Rio, $6.5M
Water For Elephants, $4M
Madea's BHF, $2M
Soul Surfer, $1.7M

[Buscemi]

There weren't many people at the showing of Priest (which was on two of their five biggest auditoriums) I went to today. Expect a big Saturday drop.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Thor, $34.5M ($119M total)
4 points - Bridesmaids, $24.4M
3 points - Fast Five, $19.5M (only a 39% drop this weekend) ($168M total)
2 points - Priest, $14.5M
1 point - Rio, $8M
Jumping the Broom, $7.3M
Something Borrowed, $7M
Water For Elephants, $4.1M
Madea's BHF, $2.2M
Soul Surfer, $1.8M

PTA (Mar, Apr):
5 points - Thor
4 points - Bridesmaids
3 points - The First Grader
2 points - Born to Be Wild
1 point - Fast Five

PTA (May)
5 points - Thor
4 points - Bridesmaids
3 points - The First Grader
2 points - Priest
1 point - Jumping the Broom

Everything Must Go made $714K in 218 theaters, for a $3,394 PTA. Skateland managed only a $2,583 in 2 locations.


User Ratings;

Bridesmaids - 6.2
Priest - 5.6
Everything Must Go - 6.5
The First Grader - 7.5
Skateland - 4.2

[Chienfantome]

I'm glad about Bridesmaids numbers. I have it on quite a few slates.

[undeadmonkey]

those are some really strong holds for most in the top ten. Rio went down only 6%

[numbersix]

BOM now says Everything Must Go has a PTA of 3784, meaning it'll get 1 precious point in May leagues. I hope I dropped it from all of my leagues

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Actuals:

Top 5:
5 points - Thor, $34.7M (-47.2%)
4 points - Bridesmaids, $26.2M
3 points - Fast Five, $20.4M (-37.0%)
2 points - Priest, $15.0M
1 point - Rio, $8.3M
Jumping the Broom, $7.1M
Something Borrowed, $6.9M
Water For Elephants, $4.2M
Madea's BHF, $2.2M
Soul Surfer, $1.8M

PTA (Mar, Apr):
5 points - Bridesmaids, $8,995
4 points - Thor, $8,757
3 points - The First Grader, $6,812
2 points - Born to Be Wild, $5,682
1 point - Fast Five, $5,390

PTA (May)
5 points - Bridesmaids, $8,995
4 points - Thor, $8,757
3 points - The First Grader, $6,812
2 points - Priest, $5,221
1 point - Everything Must Go, $3,784