SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

With Thor pulling in $66 million in its first three days, the summer season is now definitely, OFFICIALLY underway. Fast Five suffered a (highly anticipated) huge drop but still finished in an easy second place, while new debuts Jumping the Broom and Something Borrowed made decent but unspectacular debuts themselves.

Just how good Thor’s overall legs are, well, that remains to be seen. Until I’m proven wrong, I will maintain that it will continue to perform decently, and hopefully stretch itself over the $200 million mark before all the other upcoming blockbusters chase it out of town. One thing’s for sure: it will finish #1 this week as well, though whether it makes $27 million or $37 million remains to be seen.

The second weekend of May is widely regarded as one of the weakest weekends of summer. Why is that, I wonder? Why are the films that are shoved into this time slot so much more inferior than the summer’s leadoff hitter(s)? Who knows. Oh, there will occasionally be a modest hit on the second weekend of May (last year’s Robin Hood opened to $36 million on its way to $105 million, though it was outshined by Iron Man 2 every step of the way). And, of course, you have exceptions to the rule, like in 2009, when Star Trek completely overwhelmed Marvel’s Wolverine film.

But for every modest hit and breakout spectacular, you have about four or five films that never really stood a chance. Speed Racer, What Happens In Vegas, 28 Weeks Later, Georgia Rule, Poseidon, Delta Farce, Daddy Day Care, A Knight’s Tale, the list goes on and on. This particular weekend in 2011 offers five new films, including two new wide-release films that even the most optimistic of prognosticators would agree will most assuredly NOT be setting the box office on fire, at least to the same degree as its major competition.

The first is Bridesmaids, from Universal, the third wedding-themed comedy in the last two weeks. But make no mistake: this is a far more attractive prospect than either of last week’s outings, and it might even possibly break out. Why? Well, because it’s rated R, for one, which tells me it’s crude, raunchy and very adult-oriented, something producer Judd Apatow knows a great deal about. And secondly, 11 of the 13 critics that have reviewed this film at RT have given it a thumbs-up, which I was not expecting.

Director/actor Paul Feig (Unaccompanied Minors) is behind the camera for this raucous tale, which centers on best friends/thirtysomethings Lillian (Maya Rudolph) and Annie (Kristen Wiig). Misery truly loves company, and both constantly commiserate over their interminable bachelorettehood. However, when Lillian becomes engaged and asks Annie to be her maid of honor – which involves planning the bachelorette party in Las Vegas – things don’t QUITE go as planned. Along with four other bridesmaids, Helen (Rose Byrne), Becca (Ellie Kemper), Megan (Melissa McCarthy) and Rita (Wendi McLendon-Covey), Annie cuts a swath of destruction somewhere north of Bachelor Party and south of The Hangover. Jon Hamm, Melanie Hutsell, Terry Crews and Nancy Carell (Steve’s wife) also co-star.

With Fast Five dropping like a stone, I fully expect Bridesmaids to manage a solid #2 showing, right behind Thor. Debuting in about 2,700 theaters, I expect Bridesmaids to open with $18 million, and exit with eight Top 5 points, four PTA and roughly $56 million. Its current Rating (5.8) isn’t that good, but it could definitely improve. For $11 in Ultimate ($13 in Box Office), you could certainly do a lot worse.

Up next is Sony/Screen Gems’ Priest, a horror/sci-fi film based on the Korean comic of the same name. Director Scott Stewart reunites with his Legion star Paul Bettany for this film, which will be debuting in over 2,800 locations, including many 3D screens. The cast also includes Karl Urban, Cam Gigandet, Maggie Q, Brad Dourif, Christopher Plummer and Madchen Amick.

Taking place in an alternate, post-apocalyptic world where humans and vampires have been at war for centuries. Humans live in huge walled cities while the vampires control the barren wastelands outside. Priest (Bettany), a veteran of the last Vampire War, lives in obscurity within the city. However, when his niece (Lily Collins) is kidnapped by the monsters, he must break his priestly vows and leave the city in order to save her, along with her boyfriend Hicks (Gigandet) and a warrior priestess (Q).

Priest has been very well-advertised, but that’s about the only good thing I can say about it. Most of the vampires are CGI-created, and they look about as convincing as the monsters in January’s Season of the Witch. Early reviews have been horrible (1/8 positive so far, and even that one was marginal), and every box office pundit predicts this is going to be the first major flop of the summer, so who am I to argue with them?

All this negativity is why Priest costs only $9 in Ultimate Leagues ($10 in Box Office). Despite the 3D, expect a soft opening, say, $14 million, which will probably be good enough for #4 (possibly #3 if Fast Five takes another huge hit). When all is said and done, Priest will earn $31 million, four Top 5 points, one PTA and a rating in the low 6’s. I would really stay away from this title… except in the Bankrupts leagues, that is.

The most notable of this weekend’s three limited release films is Everything Must Go, a dramedy from fledgling director Dan Rush that features boisterous comedic actor Will Ferrell in a very against-type role. Ferrell plays Nick Halsey, an executive whose alcohol problem causes him to lose his job of sixteen years and his wife… all on the same day. Coming home to find that his soon-to-be ex has deposited all of his belongings on his front lawn, Nick decides to not only live on his lawn but sell everything he owns in an effort to start over. Rebecca Hall, Laura Dern, Michael Pena, Stephen Root and Christopher Jordan Wallace (Biggie Smalls’ son) all co-star.

Filmed mostly in Arizona (shout-out!), Everything Must Go was showcased at last year’s London and Toronto Film Festivals. It has gotten terrific reviews so far (12/14 positive), and has a very good Rating as well (7.0 with nearly 300 votes). And honestly, this is the side of Will Ferrell that I long to see more of, when he’s not playing his typical loud, obnoxious misogynistic roles.

This seems exactly like the kind of movie that might come along and snap up some PTA points, except for one glaring problem: its release platform of 225 locations. Getting a PTA of over $5,000 is a pretty tall order when spread across that many theaters, so it would seem unlikely that more than one or two points will be possible, no matter how awful the competition is. For $5, I would probably eschew Everything Must Go for next week’s Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen’s latest.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two other limited-release films:

The First Grader ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This is a British film based on true events that takes place in Kenya in 2002. At that time, the government announced that public education would become freely available to everyone. At one school, led by principal Jane Obinchu (Naomie Harris), there are only 50 desks for 200 children, but she makes do. Enter Kimani N'gan'ga Maruge (Olive Litondo), an 84-year-old farmer who points out that “everyone” means “everyone”, and wishes to be enrolled as a first-grader so he can learn how to read. At first, Jane turns him away, but his dogged persistence eventually wins her over, and she relents.

However, many of Jane’s colleagues and superiors – not to mention many of the parents of Maruge’s five-year-old classmates – are less enthused about the prospect, particularly when he begins relating stories of his harrowing past, including brutality at the hands of the British government during the Mau-Mau Rebellion. But this is, in the end, an uplifting, emotional story, with the clear message that one can never be too old to learn.

Early reviews for The First Grader, which was directed by Justin Chadwick (The Other Boleyn Girl), have been mixed, but the Rating on IMDb, such as it is, is decent (7.5 with 89 votes). On a week full of question marks, this might be the brightest star. It will be debuting on three screens, which makes it a very good candidate for PTA points. For $3, it might be worth the gamble.

Skateland ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This title from Freestyle Releasing will also be bowing on three screens, but I can find very little to recommend it. Taking place in a small town in Texas in 1983, Skateland tells the story of Ritchie (Shiloh Fernandez), who spends most of his time hanging out at a roller rink where he works. After a tragedy occurs in his life, he must figure out what direction to take with the rest of his life. Ashley Freeman, Taylor Handley, Haley Ramm and Brett Cullen costar.

Actually, I take it back… Skateland was, in fact, nominated for the Grand Jury prize at Sundance last year, and has been showcased at numerous other film festivals. But honestly, substitute a roller rink for an amusement park, and Skateland looks exactly like Adventureland to me (same time period, both with actors from Twilight), only with more coming-of-age teen angst and less quirky romantic comedy. And, if you remember, Adventureland didn’t do that well either. If nothing else, the current Rating of 4.5 (186 votes) should tell you all you need to know, which is… stay away.


My predictions for the weekend of May 6-8, 2011:

1. Thor - $34 million
2. Bridesmaids - $17 million
3. Fast Five - $15 million
4. Priest - $14 million
5. Something Borrowed - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, it’s a very light week in terms of the number of titles coming out, but it’s huge when you consider that the one big-budget film is Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, featuring the return of Johnny Depp as Captain Jack Sparrow. Also on tap is Woody Allen’s latest film Midnight in Paris, starring Rachel McAdams and Owen Wilson, and Ranchero, a three-year-old drama finally being given a release date.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Dennis Rodman (NBA great) (50 on 5/13)
Sofia Coppola (director of Somewhere) (40 on 5/14)
Tim Roth (currently on TV’s Lie to Me) (50 on 5/14)
Robert Zemeckis (director of Back to the Future, currently producing Reel Steel) (60 on 5/14)
Jamie Lynn Sigler (TV’s The Sopranos) (30 on 5/16)

Later!





Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by numbersix »

Pretty accurate estimates this week. Can't say I disagree. I think Bridesmaids could surprise and do even better though. Priest feels like a stinker.

1. Thor - $36 million
2. Bridesmaids - $20 million
3. Fast Five - $17 million
4. Priest - $12 million
5. Something Borrowed - $7 million

As for PTA, I'm keeping away from the all to be honest.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by Buscemi »

I'll predict:

1. Thor $37 million
2. Bridesmaids $19 million (this will more likely confuse audiences rather than bring them in)
3. Fast Five $13 million
4. Priest $11 million (still can't believe Bettany turned down The King's Speech to make this)
5. Jumping The Broom $7 million
-- Everything Must Go $1 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

your numbers look about right, i think thor might drop a little harder though. and just to nitpick a bit ;) what happens in vegas did pretty well actually, it had a 4x multiplier from it's opening weekend, making $80M domestic and $200M worldwide on a $35M budget.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by W »

Little low on Bridesmaids. I'd say $20-22 M is more likely. And I think Priest downright bombs.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by Buscemi »

W wrote:Little low on Bridesmaids. I'd say $20-22 M is more likely. And I think Priest downright bombs.
I can't see that on Bridesmaids. Male-oriented movies with female leads confuse audiences into thinking who it is for. Also, Judd Apatow is in a slump and Kristen Wiig has a strong hatedom.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by Buscemi »

Both RS and MTC are favoring Priest.

RS: Priest $20 million, Bridemaids $13-16 million
MTC: Priest $18 million, Bridesmaids $11 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by numbersix »

Priest opened in the UK and it bombed. Came in 8th behind openers Hanna, Something Borrowed, and Water for Elephants, as well as Rio on its 5th week and Insidious on its 2nd. That said, Legion also bombed in the UK.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Guess Paul Bettany isn't the megadraw in his homeland, eh?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Legion was awful and bombed hard, as Priest will also be awful and bomb hard. 3D will probably hurt the movie more than help it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

What are everyone's feelings on Bridesmaids? It's currently certified fresh on RT with about 90% (the highest of the year)while on IMDB it's only at 5.8 (granted only from 368 votes). Can this actually break out due to good word of mouth and be this year's Knocked Up, or will it get swallowed up by The Hangover 2? I'm really on the fence over it, it's usually the opposite with reviews and audience votes for gross out comedies, but will the critical reviews actually get people in? Will guys go see a gross out comedy headed by females? Do girls want to see gross out comedies starring females? Some are suggesting only a $14m weekend, while others are suggesting even something approaching $25m, on it's way to over $100m. I really just cannot guage how it will perform.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by numbersix »

From what I've been reading, the marketing campaign hasn't been great, so I'm starting to think this will get swallowed up completely. I'm now thinking it'll be a sub 20mil opening.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

Yeah, I've heard the trailers are turning people off, and that in actual fact it misrepresents the movie. But I think most audiences do respond to critical praise so maybe once word gets out it will do okay?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by Buscemi »

Not always. Horror movies tend to do worse when critics like them. But on Bridesmaids, the problem is really that the film confuses audiences into who it's aimed for (and female-aimed gross out comedies have been a dead sub-genre since The Sweetest Thing flopped in 2002). Also, Kristen Wiig has been suffering from overexposure lately (they even devoted an entire episode of Saturday Night Live a while back to one of her characters).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/13/11

Post by Buscemi »

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Legion was awful and bombed hard, as Priest will also be awful and bomb hard. 3D will probably hurt the movie more than help it.
Actually, Legion made its money back. It grossed $40 million on an $18 million budget. Priest cost just $35 million so it will eventually break even.
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