SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/6/11

[Shrykespeare]

$83 MILLION?! Wow. Even the most optimistic prognosticators didn’t predict such an outrageously inflated OW for Fast Five. It’s official, folks: the summer season is under way. The high-octane actioner also claimed the PTA crown, the first to do that since Hop. Kudos also to Incendies for holding on for four more PTA points (now with nine total), and to Rio for bringing its Top 5 total to a whopping fourteen points, as well as achieving blockbuster status this past weekend.

If history – or, more specifically, Fast & Furious – taught us anything, it’s that we can probably expect Fast Five to drop more than 50% in its second weekend. Given that this first weekend of May heralds the latest Marvel superhero epic, it may drop even more. But the question this week is: what can we reasonably expect from Thor? Well, that’s why I’m here.

Following Iron Man, Iron Man 2 and The Incredible Hulk, Thor is the latest chapter in Marvel’s Avengers tie-in. This “series” will continue in July with Captain America: The First Avenger and conclude in the Avengers movie next year. Now, the first weekend of May has belonged to Marvel for quite a few years now (five, to be exact); Spider-Man 3 and both Iron Man films were able to pound out over $300 million in total earnings, whereas 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine, while it did open to an impressive $85 million in its first three days, dropped off horribly in the ensuing weeks, earning just under $180 million total.

The story: in the realm of Asgard (the realm inhabited by the gods in Norse mythology), an uneasy truce exists between the gods of Asgard and the Frost Giants of Jotunheim; when Thor (Chris Hemsworth), who is on the cusp of ascending to the throne, does battle with the Frost Giants – against the wishes of his father Odin (Anthony Hopkins) - in order to retrieve a casket that is the source of the giants’ power, Odin is forced to strip Thor of his godly powers and exile him to Earth, along with his hammer Mjolnir, the source of Thor’s power that is now protected by a spell which makes the hammer only usable by those worthy to wield it. In New Mexico, Thor is found by scientist Jane Foster (Natalie Portman), while Mjolnir is found by Agent Coulson of S.H.I.E.L.D. (Clark Gregg). Eventually, Thor must regain his honor before the war between the Giants and the Asgardians comes to Earth. Stellan Skarsgard, Kat Dennings, Idris Elba and Tom Hiddleston also co-star.

The main concern for Thor is that its main character is simply not as relatable as Peter Parker or Tony Stark; being an immortal, he may come off as overly arrogant or cold, without that vulnerable or humorous side that Robert Downey Jr. brought to Iron Man. However, while I do not believe that Thor will anywhere near enough juice to top $300 million, I don’t think it’ll fall off a cliff like Wolverine did either.

Because of the Avengers angle, Thor will likely bring in all who are interested in following the series, so there’s that. But also, Wolverine had the extreme misfortune to run smack-dab into J.J. Abrams’ Star Trek in its second week, and all Thor will have to contend with are Priest and Bridesmaids, which put together won’t offer one-fifth as much competition. Thor’s returns may indeed drop off in the latter half of May, but by that time, it should be well on its way to fifteen Top 5 points, six or seven PTA, a terrific rating (currently at 7.7 with over 7,000 votes) and $210 million.

Thor will run you $29 in the May Ultimate leagues and $31 in Box Office. Now, on sheer dollars earned, it’s safe to say that Thor will, in the end, not hold a candle to Kung Fu Panda 2, Pirates 4, Transformers 3, Cars 2 or the final Harry Potter film. But, for what it’s worth, it is one of the few summer films guaranteed to repeat at #1, which has to count for something. Therefore, it is easily a better pick in Ultimate than in Box Office. (Final note: early reviews have been stellar, with 49/52 positive so far at RT, or 94%. FYI, Wolverine only managed 37%.)

Opening a romantic comedy against a certified blockbuster hit can often work, but many of them tend to be little more than a tiny blip on the radar. There are two comedies opening this weekend, and the first is Warner Bros.’ Something Borrowed. Director Luke Greenfield (The Girl Next Door) is behind the camera for this rom-com (based on the best-selling novel by Emily Griffin) that stars Kate Hudson, Ginnifer Goodwin and John Krasinski. Interesting note: Oscar-winning actress Hilary Swank is listed as a co-producer.

Rachel White (Goodwin) is an talented yet unhappy single New York attorney. On her 30th birthday, she gets drunk and winds up in bed with Dex (soap star Colin Egglesfield), a man whom she has had a crush on since law school, who also just happens to be the fiance of her best friend Darcy (Hudson). Uh… whoops? Krasinski plays Ethan, Rachel’s long-time friend and confidant.

From the trailer, it looks like a more heart-warming version of Bride Wars with fewer cat-fights. I have seen very little advertising for Something Borrowed (though, for what it’s worth, it could be that I’m just watching the wrong programs). Still, it is being released in nearly 3,000 theaters, so I will predict a $14 million OW and a #3 finish. For $9 in Ultimate ($10 in Box Office), I think you can expect four Top 5 points, one PTA (in the May leagues only), $33 million and a middling rating. In other words, not worth it.

Third up is Jumping the Broom, an African-American comedy from TriStar that will be debuting in just under 2,000 locations this Friday. It stars notable African-American actresses like Paula Patton, Angela Bassett and Loretta Devine, as well as Laz Alonso, Meagan Good, Mike Epps and Gary Dourdan.

This, too, is a wedding-themed movie, centering on the union of Sabrina (Patton) and Jason (Alonso), whose families come from completely different social circles – she’s well-to-do, he’s working class. From the trailer, I’m sure it will be riddled with clichés, starting with relatives that are hell-bent on squashing this ill-conceived romance before it’s too late. (The title, in case you were wondering, refers to the tradition of a bride and groom jumping over a ceremonial broom after being married.)

There was a time when TriStar was one of the big dogs, but sadly, it is but a shadow of its former self. Between this and the latest Madea film (which will be in its third week), I’m not sure which film to pick. Jumping the Broom will only cost you $6 in either league, but you are not going to get much in any category for that amount, especially User Rating. I foresee one or two Top 5 points, one or two PTA, a $9 million OW and $23 million overall. I have to believe you can do better.

The first of two limited-release films this week is The Beaver, which is the third major directorial project for actress Jodie Foster (and her first in sixteen years). No, it’s not a biopic of 50’s child star Jerry Mathers; in fact, it stars controversial actor Mel Gibson as Walter Black, the majorly-depressed CEO of a toy company who has seemingly lost the ability to effectively communicate with his wife (Foster) and sons Porter and Henry (Anton Yelchin, Riley Thomas Stewart). In desperation, he finds an old beaver hand-puppet and chooses to speak through it. Crazily enough, it starts to work. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone) costars as Porter’s girlfriend.

I honestly never thought I’d use the words “Mel Gibson” and “hand puppet” in the same paragraph unless I was describing some kind of prison workshop project, but there we are. The Beaver will run you $5 in Ultimate leagues, and for that, you may pick up three or four PTA and a Rating in the high 6’s. Which isn’t horrible, but for $5, you’d like to pick up a film that has a chance at multiple weeks in the PTA Top 5. I don’t think this is it. And $4 in Box Office is way too much. Pass.

Last up is Octubre (aka October), a Peruvian drama that will be bowing on two screens this Friday. It won the “Un Certain Regard” pize at the 2010 Cannes Film Festival, and currently sports a Rating of 6.9 on IMDb (with only 131 votes). It was directed by brothers Diego and Daniel Vega Vidal.

The film tells the story of Clemente (Bruno Odar), a moneylender who is now the single father of a newborn baby, whose mother – a prostitute – is nowhere to be found. He is helped in this regard by his neighbor Sofia (Gabriela Velasquez), a devout Catholic. She, along with a few other interesting characters in his life, help Clemente to “reconsider his emotional relations with people”.

Well, it’s not the kind of movie I would even considering seeing, but since it is debuting on the first weekend of the month, Octubre is guaranteed at least one PTA point. For $3, it may even surprise and nab three or four. And for that reason, I would recommend it in the May Ultimate leagues only.


My predictions for the weekend of May 6-8, 2011:

1. Thor - $74 million
2. Fast Five - $40 million
3. Something Borrowed - $14 million
4. Jumping the Broom - $9 million
5. Rio - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the second week of May, which may be the only week this entire summer that will not feature a film with any blockbuster potential at all. Up instead are five movies, including: Priest, a post-apocalyptic vampire movie starring Paul Bettany; Bridesmaids, a raunchy adult comedy starring Kristen Wiig; and limited-release films Everything Must Go (starring Will Ferrell), The First Grader and Skateland.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

George Clooney (coming up in The Descendants and The Ides of March) (50 on 5/6)
Willie Mays (baseball legend) (80 on 5/6)
Phillip Bailey (Earth, Wind & Fire singer) (60 on 5/8)

Later!

[numbersix]

Hmmmm....

It's a tough call with Thor. Come people believe that it will underperform, open to 50mil and close at under 50 mil. But, as you pointed out the reviews are very good (can't figure that out, I think the film stinks!) and it is the first summer blockbuster. The other 2 wide films do indeed look like they'll play like this time last year.

As for the limited, I think you're a little harsh on The Beaver. Even though it opens on 20 theatres, it could indeed win this weekend. But even if it doesn't it'll come second and earn more next weekend, so I'd say 6 PTA points is the minimum it'll get. Octobre should get 2 PTA points.

Predictions

1. Thor - $68 million
2. Fast Five - $35 million (it's frontloaded and Thor will steal some of its audience)
3. Something Borrowed - $15 million
4. Rio - $9 million (should have a low drop as it'll be the only kiddie film until Kung Fu Panda 2)
5. Jumping the Broom - $8 million

[Buscemi]

I'll say:

1. Thor $80 million
2. Fast Five $29 million (this is frontloaded like the last one was)
3. Jumping The Broom $16 million (this will surprise and become T.D. Jakes's first hit)
4. Something Borrowed $13 million (Kate Hudson's in decline)
5. Rio $10 million
-- Prom $2.5 million
-- Hoodwinked Too $2 million
-- Dylan Dog $0.2 million

[Shrykespeare]

As for the limited, I think you're a little harsh on The Beaver.

I'm glad you didn't say "Ward, I think you were a little hard on The Bever today..."

[BanksIsDaFuture]

As for the limited, I think you're a little harsh on The Beaver.

I'm glad you didn't say "Ward, I think you were a little hard on The Bever today..."

pssst....(1:55)

[Buscemi]

He shouldn't have made that reference.

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Thor - 3,955
Something Borrowed - 2,904
Jumping the Broom - 2,035
The Beaver - 22
Octubre - 2

[Buscemi]

Early Reports from Deadline:

Thor $25-30 million Friday, $65 million weekend (I can't see it being that frontloaded, especially since reviews have been so good)
Fast Five $40 million weekend (this will end up being a little lower)
Jumping The Broom $16 million (selling out a lot of shows in the urban markets)
Something Borrowed $13 million

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Thor, $25.7M
Fast Five, $10.54M
Something Borrowed, $4.8M
Jumping the Broom, $4.2M
Rio, $1.9M
Water For Elephants, $1.6M
Madea's BHF, $1M
Prom, $794K
Soul Surfer, $600K
Insidious, $480K
Hoodwinked Too, $430K

The Beaver, $30K ($1,364 PTA)

[ColoredXIII]

kinda disappointing, isn't it? only 25M..

[Chienfantome]

The most disappointing stuff is The Beaver's PTA...

[Buscemi]

The Beaver was bombing in Los Angeles from what I read. I guess that May 20th wide expansion won't be happening after all.

[Shrykespeare]

Given that for the May leagues, every new film this week will earn at least one PTA point, I wasn't sure whether to get The Beaver, Octubre, Thor or none of the above. I mean, whatever Thor ends up making at the box office, it will get 1st place this week, 1st place next week, 2nd place in two weeks and fourth place in three weeks. That's a lot of Top 5 points, a total that probably won't be matched by many other summer films. I still think it's a good Ultimate pick, esp. when you factor in its Rating. In Box Office, not as good a pick.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Thor, $66M
4 points - Fast Five, $32.5M (-62.3%)
3 points - Jumping the Broom, $13.7M
2 points - Something Borrowed, $13.1M
1 point - Rio, $8.2M
Water For Elephants, $5.6M
Madea's Big Happy Family, $3.9M
Prom, $2.4M
Soul Surfer, $2.1M
Hoodwinked Too, $1.9M

PTA (Mar, Apr leagues):
5 points - Thor
4 points - Fast Five
3 points - Jumping the Broom
2 points - Incendies
1 point - The Beaver

PTA (May leagues):
5 points - Thor
4 points - Jumping the Broom
3 points - The Beaver
2 points - Something Borrowed

Don't know yet where Octubre figures into the mix.

[thswrestler160]

Octubre was estimated for 8300 at its 2 sites. 4150 pta so 1 point in may leagues