SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Brockster
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Brockster »

Fast 5 still has a 7.9 imdb score w/ other 5,000 votes...turning out to be a great pick in all areas

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Shrykespeare
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

BOM Weekend Estimates

Top 5:
5 points - Fast Five, $83.6M
4 points - Rio, $14.4M
3 points - Madea's BHF, $10M
2 points - Water For Elephants, $9.1M
1 point - Prom, $5M
Hoodwinked Too, $4.1M

PTA:
5 points - Fast Five
4 points - Incendies
3 points - Madea's BHF
2 points - Born to be Wild (?!)
1 point - Rio

No word yet on The Arbor or 13 Assassins.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

BOM Weekend Actuals

Top 5:
5 points - Fast Five, $86.2M
4 points - Rio, $14.8M
3 points - Madea's BHF, $9.9M
2 points - Water For Elephants, $9.3M
1 point - Prom, $4.7M
Hoodwinked Too, $4.1M

PTA:
5 points - Fast Five, $23,655
4 points - 13 Assassins, $15,285
3 points - Incendies, $6,462
2 points - Madea's BHF, $4,310
1 points - Born to be Wild, $4,202

The Arbor made $2,638 this weekend in one location ($3,571 since Wed.).


User Ratings:

Fast Five - 7.9
Prom - 4.8
Hoodwinked Too - 5.3
13 Assassins - 8.1
The Arbor - 6.7
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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undeadmonkey
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

Next weekends hold of Fast Five will show if picking it was good or fantastic. I think i have it on every slate.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Buscemi »

It will drop like the last one did. These films are very frontloaded. I'm predicting a 66% drop as it will fail to hit $200 million.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

Just out of interest I noticed that Fast Five only had a 43% drop in its second weekend with Thor opening in NZ. Don't know if that's an idicator of how it will perform in the US...

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Buscemi »

How much did Fast and Furious drop in its second weekend there?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

Just checked and it was 53% with NO competition. So obviously it's done better with this one, even when competing against Thor.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Buscemi »

Fast and Furious dropped 62% in the US (its main competition that week: Hannah Montana). In fact, all of the sequels have lost over half their audience in the second weekend (2 Fast 2 Furious: 63%, Tokyo Drift: 59%, Fast and Furious: 62%).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

I would suspect a heavier drop than over here then, but maybe not as much as previously, even with Thor, and with a good IMDB rating obviously it's been well received. Wish I'd picked it up in a few BO slates now.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

with equal drops matching the film before it, Fast Five would get to $180M-$195M, So if it gets even a little bit better holds than it's predecessor, it will get to $200M easily.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Buscemi »

$200 million is not very likely. Fast and Furious had terrible legs (it sputtered out at $150 million). $180 million is the ceiling.

Also, its main competition (Thor) will most likely have Batman Begins-type legs as the reviews have been excellent (even better than Fast Five's reviews).
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