SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

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Shrykespeare
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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Props to Rio for becoming the second film this month to repeat as box office champion, as well as to Hop (the other film to repeat), for having an impressive Easter weekend of its own. New debuts Madea’s Big Happy Family and Water For Elephants also had very decent OW’s, and to no one’s surprise, critical darling Incendies easily took the PTA crown this week.

Normally, the summer season officially begins the first weekend of May. However, with the first big-budget, rollicking action flick rolling off the assembly line and hitting theaters this week, it seems the festivities will begin one week earlier this year. Anyone who has seen any chapter of the Fast & Furious franchise know pretty much what to expect: hot chicks, souped-up cars, chase scenes out the wazoo and ball-busting action. Going into Fast Five, audiences should probably expect nothing less.

This chapter begins pretty much where the last one ended: ex-cop Brian O’Conner (Paul Walker) succeeds in freeing his friend Dominic Toretto (Vin Diesel) from a prison transport bus, and everyone involved eventually splits up and reconvenes in Rio de Janiero (don’t worry, there are no blue macaws in this film… I think). Almost immediately, a job is lined up wherein they steal some cars from a train, but things go badly wrong, and soon the gang is being hunted both by a corrupt businessman (Joaquim de Almeida) and DSS agent Luke Hobbs (Dwayne Johnson), who are determined to bring them in – particularly Dominic – dead or alive. Jordana Brewster, Tyrese Gibson and Chris “Ludacris” Bridges co-star.

The last installment, Fast & Furious, powered to a $70 million opening and $155 million overall in April of 2009, but Fast Five could easily top those numbers. The franchise has many fans, and this is the kind of movie that lends itself well to repeat viewings. I’m sure the inevitable throwdown between Diesel and Johnson alone would be worth the price of admission. It’s worth noting that early reviews for Fast Five have been extremely positive, as it currently has an RT score of 78% (21/27). It also currently boasts a tremendous Rating on IMDb of 8.2 with over 1,700 votes, so that number is unlikely to drop much below 7.5.

The thing is, with summer powerhouses like Thor just around the corner, I think it’s unlikely that Fast Five is going to have more than three good weeks (if even that). Fast & Furious dropped 61% and 57% in its second and third weekends, respectively, and if Fast Five is unable to break that trend, it will have all but petered out by the time the fourth Pirates movie comes out.

Fast Five will run you $20 in the April Ultimate Leagues ($22 in Box Office), and for that, I would expect a $75 million OW, on its way to eleven Top 5 points, five PTA and $170 million overall. With summer being an assembly line of potential hits, I would deem this a decent pickup. Probably not the best, but definitely decent. A worthy way to kick off the summer season (in over 3,500 theaters).

To go up against a film with this much horsepower, you’re only hope is to appeal to a completely different demographic. Which is why I’m wondering why Prom, which you’d figure is geared towards only teenagers, would choose to go toe-to-toe with Fast Five, which is also primarily geared towards teens and action junkies. If you were a teenage guy, which would you rather see? Well, I guess if they had to bring a date…

From director Joe Nussabum (Sydney White) and Walt Disney Pictures comes this teen dramedy about a bunch of high-schoolers preparing for one of the most important and memorable nights of their young lives: prom night. The story is told as several intersecting stories about the teens and the drama that unfolds as the big night approaches. The primary story features Nova Prescott (Aimee Teegarden, who is also in Scream 4) who finds herself drawn to the “bad boy” (Thomas McDonell) who threatens to ruin her perfect day. Prom also stars DeVaughn Nixon, Danielle Campbell and a bunch of other young actors and actresses that I have never heard of.

Scheduled to hit about 2,700 theaters this Friday, I look for Prom to open to a very small crowd, managing only $9 million on its way to $25 million overall, earning only one Top 5 points and a so-so Rating. For $8 in Ultimate ($9 Box Office), I would stay away from this film… much like I should have stayed away from my prom. I won’t even tell you how bad that night was for me (so don’t ask).

Five years ago, The Weinstein Company put out a little animated film called Hoodwinked!, a filmed that presented a very interesting skew on the classic Red Riding Hood fairy tale (and other fairy tales as well), setting it up as a police investigation and telling the story Rashomon-style. The quality of the animation quality was vastly inferior to just about every other major cartoon movie out there, but against all odds, it became a hit, earning $165 million internationally (on a $10 million budget), which ain’t too shabby.

A sequel has been in the works for years, and now Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil is at long last hitting theaters, after numerous delays and postponements. All of the film’s writers and most of the original voice cast has returned from the previous film, with Hayden Panettiere taking Anne Hathaway’s place in the central character of “Red”. Patrick Warburton, Glenn Close, Andy Dick and David Ogden Stiers reprise their roles as The Wolf, Granny, Boingo and Detective Nicky Flippers, respectively. Bill Hader, Joan Cusack, David Alan Grier and Heidi Klum also join the fun.

I won’t go into the plot: you can watch the trailer to try to figure that one out. And though the original film somehow earned $50 million, I look for Hoodwinked Too! to earn substantially less. It will only cost you $6 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office), but given how little advertising I’ve seen for it, I’d be surprised if it even cracked the Top 5 at all. I predict $8 million in its first three days and only $27 million overall, which means that you should definitely NOT take this film.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release features:

The Arbor ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This is a documentary from director Clio Barnard about English playwright Andrea Dunbar, whose turbulent life was cut short when she died of a brain hemorrhage in 1990 at the age of 29. The film won the award for Best New Documentary Filmmaker at last year’s Tribeca Film Festival.

Dunbar lived in a residential area of London called the Buttershaw Estate, and apparently racism was a very significant problem. She grew up there, and ended up having three children by three different men (one of them being a mixed-race child), and when her play Rita, Sue and Bob Too was adapted into a movie in 1985, it created a lot of controversy. The Arbor actually refers to Dunbar’s first play, which she wrote at the age of 15 and deals with the experiences of a pregnant teenager with a drunken abusive father.

Set to debut in an unknown number of theaters on Wednesday (though I would imagine that it would be a very small number, perhaps even only one), The Arbor has gotten exceptional reviews thus far (18/19 positive on RT), though its User Rating is only fair (6.7 with 265 votes thus far). $3 is as cheap as it generally gets for an Ultimate pick, and if I only had $3 to spend, I would probably choose one of the other ones with the same price tag.

13 Assassins ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This is a Japanese period drama directed by Takashi Miike, who is well-known in Japan as a director of horror films. It’s also worth noting that it was produced by Toshiaki Nakazawa, who won the 2009 Best Foreign Language film for Departures. Based on true events, it is scheduled to be released in four theaters this Friday, with expansions into other markets coming gradually over the next month.

Taking place in the very popular time in Japanese history known as Feudal Japan at a point when the era of the samurai is waning, 13 Assassins is the story of a sadistic young lord named Naritsugu, who rapes and kills at his whim, but because he is the Shogun’s brother, nothing can be done. However, one senior government official comes to the realization that Naritsugu’s crimes will only escalate should he reach a position of actual power, and decides to hire a veteran samurai named Shinzaemon to assassinate the lord. Shinzaemon then gathers twelve other of his fellow samurai to assist him in overcoming the impossible odds of defeating Naritsugu’s legions of bodyguards to complete their task.

I really like the ultra-violent look of the 13 Assassins, but Asian films of this nature tend to not be great for PTA (The Good, the Bad and the Weird only managed one PTA, if I remember correctly). But stranger things have happened… it, too, has been fantastically reviewed (12/13 positive on RT), and if nothing else, you can always choose it just for its Rating (currently at 8.2 with over 1,500 votes), which is unlikely to change much.


My predictions for the weekend of April 29-May 1, 2011:

1. Fast Five - $75 million
2. Rio - $17 million
3. Madea’s Big Happy Family - $13 million
4. Water For Elephants - $11 million
5. Prom - $9 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the summer REALLY gets going with five new films that will open up the May-July season, including: Thor, the latest Marvel superhero film and the next in the Avengers series; Something Borrowed, a romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and John Krasinski; Jumping the Broom, an African-American comedy starring Paula Patton and Meagan Good; The Beaver, a dramedy starring Mel Gibson and Jodie Foster (who also directed); and Peruvian drama Octubre.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Ace Frehley (KISS guitarist) (60 on 4/27)
Jessica Alba (Machete, Little Fockers, next up in Spy Kids 4) (30 on 4/28)
Bridget Moynahan (I, Robot, Battle: Los Angeles, currently on TV’s Blue Bloods) (40 on 4/28)
Ann-Margret (Tommy, Grumpy Old Men) (70 on 4/28)

Later!





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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Buscemi »

1. Fast Five $60 million
2. Rio $19 million
3. Hoodwinked Too $10 million
4. Water For Elephants $9 million
5. Madea's Big Happy Family $9 million
6. Prom $8 million (I don't understand why Disney decided to upgrade this from a TV movie to a theatrical release, the film has no stars and is too squeaky clean for its target audience)
-- Hop $5 million
-- African Cats $4 million
-- Dylan Dog: Dead of Night $1.5 million (there's been almost no marketing and it's based on an obscure comic book, also horror comedy almost always flops)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by numbersix »

Fast Five... don't know how to explain how well it did last time (I know the original cast came back, but seriously!) I'm thinking this is a poor weekend and Rio is still going strong, and with the summer really starting the week after, I dont' think it'll do as well.
Hoodwinked 2: Poorly marketed and dumped in a bad weekend is a problem.
Prom looks DOA

As for limited, I could see The Arbour getting 4 points after Fast 5's 5. The reviews over here and it went down really well with the arthouse crowd. expect it to do really well.

Predictions

1. Fast Five $62 million
2. Rio $17 million
3. Madea's Big Happy Family $11 million
4. Hoodwinked Too $9 million
5. Water For Elephants $9 million

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

No way Fast Five does under $80 this weekend. It has zero competition, and fans of the franchise liked the 4th one, so why wouldn't they come out for this one?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Buscemi »

Because this is basically another unneeded sequel. It's to Fast and Furious what 2 Fast 2 Furious was to The Fast and the Furious: a disappointment.

Audiences are saving their money for Thor and Pirates of the Caribbean.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

aren't all sequels 'unneeded'? I don't see any reason either, that this won't be just as successful as the last one. it's already proven so in other countries.

now your second statement at least makes some sense, as i, personally, am saving my money for Thor and Pirates. But that's not to say everyone else will, i know a ton of guys who would instantly shell out cash for Fast Five over Thor and Pirates.

It's been too long from the time Hoodwinked came out for the sequel to make an impact, even if the movie has been playing constantly on cartoon network. I haven't seen one trailer or tv spot for prom, i don't even know what it's about, other than 'prom'.

Personally if i would go see a new release this next weekend, i would go see Dylan Dog Dead of Night, it looks funny. I don't think it'll do well, but i think it looks interesting.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I doubt the young guys/teenagers are really pumped about another Pirates movie. That's more kids and women.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by transformers2 »

Fast Five is a pretty much surefire hit. The last one was really well-recieved, it has zero competition, and the advertising is everywhere. I say it makes 75-80 mil this weekend.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Current User Ratings (as of Monday):

Fast Five - 8.1 (2067 votes) - the number of votes will probably increase ten- to twentyfold by next Monday, but that's still pretty good)
The Arbor - 6.7 (266 votes)
13 Assassins - 8.2 (1602 votes)

No votes yet for Prom or Hoodwinked Too.


By the way, I am waiting for donnie (Manuela) to add the July movies to the master list. When that happens, I will be creating the May-July leagues immediately.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official theater counts:

Fast Five - 3,643
Prom - 2,730
Hoodwinked Too! - 2,505
13 Assassins - 3
The Arbor - 1

Also:
Dylan Dog - 862


Estimates for next week:

Thor - 3,500
Something Borrowed - 2,900+
Jumping the Broom - 2,000+
The Beaver - 20
Octubre - N/A
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Buscemi »

Early Friday numbers:

Fast Five $30-35 million Friday, $75 million weekend
Prom $2-2.5 million Friday, $7 million weekend (this should have stayed as a made-for-TV movie like it was supposed to be)

Also, Rio and African Cats are reportedly Number 2 and 3.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Buscemi »

Updates from Deadline

1. Fast Five $34 million Friday, $80 million weekend (you suck, filmgoers)
2. Rio $3.4 million Friday, $14.6 million weekend
3. Madea's Big Happy Family $3.1 million Friday, $9.6 million weekend
4. Water For Elephants $2.7 million Friday, $8.1 million weekend
5. Prom $1.8 million Friday, $5.4 million weekend (I bet Disney wants Dick Cook back now as Rich Ross's first project will struggle to get above $2,000 per theatre, also it doesn't help that this was actually made-for-TV)

Hoodwinked Too and Dylan Dog finish outside of the Top Five. They also had Rotten Tomatoes scores of 11% and 9%, respectively.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Jeez, let up, Boosh. Fast Five was, in some ways, the best of the series, because it stopped being about racing and it became a heist movie, which is much cooler. They dressed it up with girls in bikinis and the usual testosterone, but I think it stands pretty well on its own.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

i want to see it, but i'll probably wait till dvd

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/29/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Fast Five, $33.2M
Rio, $3.6M
Madea's BHF, $3.1M
Water For Elephants, $2.9M
Prom, $1.85M
Hoodwinked Too, $1.1M
Soul Surfer, $1M
Insidious, $1M
African Cats, $961K
Source Code, $810K
Scream 4, $800K
Hanna, $685K
Hop, $667K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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