SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/22/11

[Shrykespeare]

This past weekend, Rio got out of the gate very well. Maybe not as well as the $49 million I predicted, but still, anything near or above $40 million is very respectable. What was not respectable, nor even expected, was the fact that the supposedly much-anticipated fourth chapter in the Scream series barely made a splash at all, failing to earn even $20 million and having easily the weakest OW of any in the series. Guess ten years was too long to wait for a sequel, huh? Congrats go to Rio as well for winning the PTA crown this week, just ahead of new entry The Princess of Montpensier and returning hit Meek’s Cutoff.

Only two weeks until May and the official beginning of the summer movies season (though, with Fast Five debuting next week, an argument could definitely be made that the season will start a week earlier than usual). Thus far, April has seen hits come in movies specifically for kids (Hop, Rio) or with young actresses in starring roles (both Hanna and Soul Surfer have done quite well, considering). But with the exception of next weekend’s bound-to-underachieve Hoodwinked Too!, there really will be no kids movies out for a long time (unless you count Kung Fu Panda 2 as a kids’ movie).

That being said, this coming weekend is definitely a transitional one, with a couple of smaller films sandwiched in among the big ones. The first one I’ll be talking about is Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family, which is Perry’s eleventh major film and the sixth to feature the character of Mabel “Madea” Simmons (played by Perry), the indomitable, tough-as-nails, slaphappy matriarch of the Simmons clan. All you need to know about the plot you can glean from the trailer, as it seems to be just about Madea trying to whip her dysfunctional family back into shape. Loretta Devine, Bow Wow, David Mann, Lauren London and Isaiah Mustafa (yes, the Old Spice guy) co-star.

This is the sixth go-round for Madea, who is easily Perry’s most famous creation, and by now, I have to wonder… how much is enough? There has to come a time when even the most beloved of characters starts to grow stale, and watching Perry go upside the heads of most of his/her supporting cast has to lose its allure at some point. But is this that point? I might be wrong, but my first instinct would be yes. The film’s various posters, which are parodies of Oscar-winning films like Black Swan and The Godfather, smack of desperation, as if the people at Lionsgate were trying to wring every last cliché out of this character and this franchise before it’s too late.

Madea’s BHF will be debuting in 2,100 theaters, but don’t let that number fool you, because most of TP’s films have opened in around the same number of locations and still done very well. Using Madea’s last film, I Can Do Bad All By Myself from fall 2009: that film opened to $23.4 million on its way to $51.7 million. I believe that Madea’s BHF will fall just short of that mark, earning only about $21 million, which also means it will not earn enough to overtake Rio’s second week, given that that film will likely have only a small drop. In all, you can expect about six or seven Top 5 points, a few PTA, and about $48 million. And the Rating? Will be bad, no matter how good the film may be. Perry’s movies always take a beating at IMDb, but even if that were not the case, I would not spend $13 on it in the Ultimate leagues. Spending $15 in Box Office will probably not pan out either.

Up next is Water For Elephants, a romantic period drama from 20th Century Fox. Based on the novel of the same name by author Sara Gruen, the film is directed by Francis Lawrence (Constantine, I Am Legend) and stars Twilight hunk Robert Pattinson and Oscar-winners Reese Witherspoon and Christoph Waltz.

Taking place chiefly during the Great Depression, Water For Elephants is the story of an old man named Jacob Jankowski (Hal Holbrook) whose memories are poured out onto the screen, most of which feature himself chiefly as a young man (Pattinson – and just wryly grin to yourself that the guy known to millions of teens as "Edward" is now playing a guy named “Jacob”). Originally schooled to become a veterinarian like his father, his life takes a different turn after he is orphaned after a tragic accident and Jacob learns that his father had mountains of debt. In desperation, Jacob jumps onto a circus train, and eventually becomes the circus animals’ caretaker. Of course, this being the Depression, the circus is foundering, and its only hope comes in the form of Rosie the elephant and her charismatic but twisted trainer August (Waltz), and complications arrive when Jacob has a fling with August’s wife, equestrian star Marlena (Witherspoon).

BoxOffice.com predicts that Water For Elephants (which debuts in 2,700 theaters this Friday) will open to $24 million on its way to $65 million overall. Based on what, I wonder? I haven’t seen THAT much advertising for it, and its cast is not guaranteed to put butts in seats – Pattinson’s last non-Twilight romance, Remember Me, didn’t even make $20 million total, and Witherspoon’s last film, How Do You Know, flopped with only $30 million despite a Christmas release and a stellar cast. I’ll increase my original projection based on BoxOffice’s apparent inside information, but only so far as to predict a $16 million OW and $41 million overall, along with four or five Top 5, maybe one or two PTA and a Rating in the high 6’s (it’s currently at 6.8 with almost 400 votes). These are not bad stats for only $7 (in both leagues), but I can’t help but feel that you can do better.

Third up this week is African Cats, the third consecutive nature documentary film from DisneyNature to bow on Earth Day (following Earth and Oceans). It is brought to us courtesy of directors Alastair Fothergill (who co-directed Earth) and Keith Scholey, and is narrated by Hollywood icon Samuel L. Jackson… probably because Morgan Freeman was busy doing Born To Be Wild, I guess. It also features a new song called “The World I Knew” by former American Idol winner Jordin Sparks.

Using real-life footage, African Cats focuses on several different animals: a young lion cub named Mara, being raised by his mother Layla; Sita, a mother cheetah raising five newborns; and Fang, the leader of a lion pride defending his family from a banished lion (no, not Scar). Most of the film was shot on-location at the Maasai Mara National Reserve in southwestern Kenya, one of the few places left on Earth where lions, cheetahs and leopards live in close proximity and in large numbers.

African Cats will be meowing… er, bowing in around 1,200 theaters this Friday, which is proximate with the release platforms of both Earth and Oceans. I predict an opening of $8 million – just good enough for #5 – on its way to $28 million. You can also expect a very good Rating (both previous DisneyNature films ended above 7.0) and maybe even a PTA point or two. For $5, this is just an okay pick in Ultimate, but it is an absolute steal for $2 in Box Office.

This week’s only limited-release film is a big one. It is Incendies, a French-Canadian film from director Denis Villeneuve that was nominated at last month’s Oscars for Best Foreign Film, and it was many critics’ favorite to win that award (though it ended up losing to Denmark’s In a Better World). It is based on Wajdi Mouawad’s play Scorched, and it has taken home scads of awards at many notable film festivals, including Venice, Toronto, and Vancouver.

The story: when mother of two Nawal Marwan (Lubna Azabal) unexpectedly passes away, her two children, twins Jeanne (Mélissa Désormeaux-Poulin) and Simon (Maxim Gaudette) learn that Nawal had a very mysterious past about which they knew next to nothing. They learn that their father did not die as they were told, and that they have an older brother about which they also knew nothing. Jeanne’s journey to discover their mother’s past takes her back to Nawal’s homeland in the war-torn Middle East, and digging into her family’s history causes a tremendous amount of upheaval.

I wish I knew just how many theaters will be showcasing this film, but if it’s less than fifty, grab onto Incendies with both hands. Its Ultimate price tag of $5 seems paltry given its pedigree; in addition to all its many kudos and accolades, it has a tremendous RT score of 96% (23/24 positive) and an awesome rating of 8.2 (with well over 2,000 votes). I fully expect Incendies to hang around in the PTA Top 5 for two, maybe three weeks, and could very well be the best PTA provider since Win Win. Thumbs WAY the hell up on this one.


My predictions for the weekend of April 22-24, 2011:

1. Rio - $26 million
2. Madea’s Big Happy Family - $21 million
3. Water For Elephants - $16 million
4. Scream 4 - $10 million
5. African Cats - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, summer gets an early jump with five new films that close out the month of April, including: Fast Five, the latest in the action series starring Paul Walker and Vin Diesel, and now throwing Dwayne Johnson into the mix; Prom, a teen comedy; Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil, a sequel to the animated 2005 “fractured fairy tale” kids’ movie; as well as limited-release features The Arbor and 13 Assassins.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Hayden Christensen (Takers, Vanishing on 7th Street, up next in Money For Nothing) (30 on 4/19)
Ryan O’Neal (Barry Lyndon, Paper Moon, recently on TV’s Bones) (70 on 4/20)
Tony Danza (TV’s Taxi, Who’s the Boss?) (60 on 4/21)
George Lopez (Rio, George Lopez Tonight) (50 on 4/23)

Later!

[Buscemi]

Friday is Good Friday, which means that many children will be getting the day from school. This could help Rio, African Cats and Hop at the box office.

My predictions:

1. Rio $30 million (excellent word of mouth + holiday weekend = great hold)
2. Madea's Big Happy Family $25 million (The trailers and posters have been just awful on this and half the posters give a completely different title. At least the billboard being shown downtown here gives the correct title.)
3. Water For Elephants $15 million (the only thing that's helping this other than the best-selling book factor is Christoph Waltz as Witherspoon's husband)
4. African Cats $10 million (the film has already sold almost $2 million in advance tickets and like Rio, will benefit from the holiday weekend)
5 (tie). Scream 4 $8 million
5 (tie). Hop $8 million (Easter weekend will mean the first decent drop for this)
-- The Conspirator $3 million (it's expanding to 1,000 theatres so that should mean a small drop)
-- Atlas Shrugged: Part I $400,000 (other than Tea Party members, most people have hated this adaptation)

Also, Scream 4's opening wasn't the lowest in the series. The original opened to just $6 million in 1996 (but had insane legs and played in first-run all the way to June with an April reissue inbetween).

[thswrestler160]

uhh shryke you do realize that any movie with the word Madea in the title had opened alot stronger than the others. His last Madea movie was Madea goes to jail

Madea goes to Jail: 41/90
Madeas Family reunion:30/63

I'd be suprised if it doesn't win the weekend. The title alone should give it the bump

[Buscemi]

You haven't seen the marketing on this one. It's been horrible. And a lot of people probably won't even know the title of the film since the posters give like six different titles.

Also, this one doesn't have the added weight of a second familiar African-American actor that the other films had. It's just Tyler Perry...and no one else.

[silversurfer19]

I won't argue your very valid points boussh, but do you not think the name Tyler Perry alone is what sells 90% of the tickets? I would have thought so anyway, and so long as the audience know he has a movie out (which apparently is a big if) I would be fairly certain it will have a good turnout.

[Buscemi]

They tried to sell For Colored Girls on Tyler Perry's name...and it grossed less than $40 million. Also, the last Madea film (I Can Do Bad All By Myself) grossed just $52 million at the box office (much below Madea Goes To Jail's $90 million).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Big Happy Family may get up to the high 20s this weekend, but there's no way it's beating Rio's second weekend.

And I agree with Shryke, that Madea may have hit the saturation point and this will be the first one with Madea in the title to not do well. At least the other's had something of a plot - I'll give anyone $100 if they can decipher a plot out of the trailer for this one.

It's just Madea being Madea, stumbling all over the place and mispronouncing words - and is that enough for people to rush out and drop $9 a ticket?

(Madea really has become a loud, fat, black Mr. Bean.)

[Buscemi]

I wouldn't be surprised if African-American audiences were truly waiting for Jumping The Broom two weeks later.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I wouldn't be surprised if African-American audiences were truly waiting for Jumping The Broom two weeks later.

I actually think that doesn't look too bad.

But judging from last year's Just Wright, maybe black rom-coms really aren't big box office smashes?

Plus, I'm sure people will get Jumping The Broom, Something Borrowed, and Bridesmaids confused when they go to buy tickets.

[Shrykespeare]

Anyone think that Pattinson in WFE looks like a cross between a young Brendan Fraser and Topher Grace?

[Buscemi]

I think he looks like a less buff Dolph Lundgren.

[Shrykespeare]

I think he looks like a less buff Dolph Lundgren.

Naaaahhhhh.....

[numbersix]

Hmmm.... interesting arguements about Madea, but for me not enough evidence to suggest it will fail.
I've no idea about Water for Elephants but it being a successful book may help. It's also a romance and there hasn't been many of those this month, plus tracking has been high (well, too high probably). Shryke, for $7 it feels like a good pick. There's not many other similarly priced movies and it could get 4 T5 points.

As for PTA, I suspect Incendies will win even if it's opening in 20 theatres (I'd get worried at the 50 mark but because it's Canadian I think it'll do well in Canada regardless). Maybe I'm biased because it's the best film of the year so far, and it may not be beaten. I have it in a lot of leagues.

Predictions

1. Madea’s Big Happy Family - $29 million
2. Rio - $27 million
3. Water For Elephants - $15 million
4. Scream 4 - $19 million
5. African Cats - $8 million

[Buscemi]

Incendies opened in November in Canada (it did rather well there) and was released on DVD in March. You can import it on eBay (one store that has it even offers American shipping).

[Brockster]

I’ll increase my original projection based on BoxOffice’s apparent inside information

I wonder if this was the same inside information they used to predict a 45M opening for Scream 4? Stick with your guns Shryke! More often than not you are more accurate than the predicting sites we hover around.