This Friday marks the last Friday before the Thanksgiving holiday, which means, like those NFL teams forced to play a Thursday night game, it’s a short week. Only five days (instead of the customary seven) before this week’s films get more competition for supremacy over Turkey Day weekend. There are three films scheduled for wide-release on November 20th, so here we go.
Every season has that one BIG one. Spring, summer, fall, winter. This spring it was supposed to be Watchmen, but it turned out to be Monsters vs. Aliens. This summer, it was supposed to be Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, and lo, it was. This fall, it was… well, there was no real BIG one, but there were a lot of good little ones. But for winter, there is no doubt in my mind that the box office champ-een will be Twilight: New Moon.
Yeah, I know, I’m treading on dangerous ground, especially given what’s coming in December. Avatar could zoom past the $250 million mark and keep going. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel could match or surpass the original’s jaw-dropping total of $217 million. But I honestly believe that New Moon is the must-have of the winter season.
The reason should be obvious: young teens and preteens, especially girls, have gone absolutely gaga for Twilight since the first book in the series hit stores. Ever since then, the series has sold millions and millions of copies, been read, re-read and dog-eared by every girl who owns it, and despite the fact that many of the more ardent enthusiasts agree that the movie adaptation of Twilight paled in comparison to the book, that didn’t stop it from bringing in $191 million last winter. And if anything, the series has picked up steam since then, not lost it.
For those of you who don’t know (and you should, even if you’ve meticulously avoided all forms of this series), the Twilight saga tells the story of two teenage star-crossed lovers, Bella Swan (Kristen Stewart) and the mysterious Edward Cullen (Robert Pattinson), who just happens to be a vampire. But not the MEAN kind of vampire, no, he’s actually quite nice, and Bella fell for him like a ton of bricks. However, the whole human/vampire thing rarely works out, and their relationship will hit a rough patch at the start of New Moon.
Without spoiling too much, an incident will occur that will force Edward and his family to leave the northwestern town of Forks, Washington, to protect Bella’s safety. Heartbroken at first, Bella decides to adopt a thoroughly reckless lifestyle, which includes getting closer to the just-as-mysterious Jacob Black (Taylor Lautner), who has a secret all his own. (Annnnnnddd… exhale!)
Pretty much all of the original cast members are back, including Billy Burke, Anna Kendrick, Michael Welch, Ashley Greene, Cam Gigandet and Justin Chon. Also making appearances in this chapter are Michael Sheen (Underworld: Rise of the Lycans... hmm, foreshadowing?) and former Hollywood wunderkind Dakota Fanning. The newest face in the bunch is definitely director Chris Weitz, replacing Catherine Hardwicke, who cited “time restrictions” as her reason for not returning. Let us hope, for the sake of the series, that New Moon fares a little better than Weitz’s last project, The Golden Compass, which was supposed to be an awesome, record-breaking start to the His Dark Materials literary series, but ended up fizzling out horribly with a domestic take of only $70 million, nearly 1/3 of its total budget. (It did end up turning a tidy profit overseas, but no plans were ever greenlit to adapt the next two books in the series.)
In the November Ultimate Leagues, New Moon will run you a hefty $36, and for this amount of money, you would and should expect a lot. I fully expect it to eclipse (
) the first chapter’s OW of $69.6 million, and given that it will be bowing in well over 4,000 theaters, I may see it going as high as $80 million. However, it is worth noting that Twilight suffered a 62% drop in its second week, and New Moon will need to have much stronger legs than that if it’s going to break $200 million. However, the films that are coming out in the next few weeks look fairly weak; Old Dogs may have strong legs alongside New Moon, but nothing else over Thanksgiving weekend looks to have that much power. December 4th weekend certainly has nothing that big; frankly, it’s not until December 11th, which will herald the release of Did You Hear About the Morgans?, Invictus and the wide release of The Princess and the Frog that I expect New Moon to tumble from the Top 5. Twilight managed 15 Top 5 points, and I expect at least that much from New Moon. I also expect six PTA, $210 million overall and a User Rating around 6.2 (just slightly above Twilight’s 5.9). For $38 in Box Office, this is a pretty safe bet, one that doesn’t have the huge question marks over it like Avatar has.Another pretty safe bet, judging by the blitzkrieg of advertising over the last few weeks – especially during NCAA and NFL games – is The Blind Side, a true-to-life heartwarming family sports drama from Warner Bros. Directed by John Lee Hancock (The Alamo, The Rookie) and based upon the 2006 book The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game by Michael Lewis, this film tells the story of Michael Oher, a homeless African-American teenager who comes from a broken home, only to be taken in by a well-to-do Caucasian family.
Sandra Bullock (sporting a cute Southern drawl) plays Leigh Anne Touhy, a strong-willed woman who gives Michael a home, a bed, and a reason for being. Leigh’s husband Sean (country music star Tim McGraw) is skeptical at first, but Michael’s presence soon begins to uncover a wellspring of self-discovery for their entire family. Encouraged to become a good student, Michael also finds that he has a knack for football, given his large size and linebacker-like build. Oscar-winner Kathy Bates also co-stars as Michael’s tutor.
You know, I really do like Sandra Bullock. Most actresses seem to find that once they hit middle age, the roles that flowed so plentifully toward them begin to decrease tremendously. I mean, seriously… have you noticed that incredibly popular actresses from, say, ten to fifteen years ago, are working substantially less now? Meg Ryan, Rene Russo, Halle Berry, even Jodie Foster rarely sees the big screen any more, and even then, not in substantial roles. But Sandra (now 45), just keeps chugging merrily on.
And it’s not like she’s done stellar work… All About Steve, Premonition, The Lake House, Miss Congeniality 2, Loverboy, and that’s just the last four years. Oh, sure, she’s managed to sprinkle in a few hits (The Proposal, Two Weeks Notice, Miss Congeniality and the Best Picture-winner Crash), and I guess that’s enough to keep her fanbase intact. And don’t expect her to slow down – she’s got five more projects in development, according to IMDb. But I digress…
Honestly, I’m really looking forward to The Blind Side. It looks exactly like the kind of heart-warming sports story that I like, and judging by the praise that’s already being heaped upon it, I’m not alone in that mindset. BOM has it coming out in over 3,100 theaters, and for $9 in Ultimate ($10 in Box Office), this could be a great sleeper pick for your slate. I think it could definitely surprise and take in over $20 million in its first three days. However, that would still only put it at #3, barring a 75% drop for 2012 in its second week, and all told, I wouldn’t expect much more than five Top 5 points out of it. The User Rating should be very good, however.
The final wide-release movie on the weekend of November 20th is Planet 51, an animated romp from Sony/Columbia. Coming in roughly 2,600-plus theaters, this story looks to be a twist on a familiar theme. We’re all familiar with the sci-fi cliché of Earth being invaded by little green men from outer space, but Planet 51 turns that chestnut on its head. To wit, a whole planet of “little green men”, who are very similar to us in mannerisms, culture and, apparently language (but not pigmentation), is shocked and dismayed when an alien spacecraft lands, and discharges its one occupant who claims provision over the planet. The twist? The occupant is, in fact, an American astronaut named Capt. Charles Baker (Dwayne Johnson), who is rather shocked to find a whole suburban community of green-skinned aliens staring at him, and even more alarmed to find that they are more scared of him than vice versa.
The supporting voice cast includes Justin Long, Jessica Biel, Seann William Scott, Gary Oldman and John Cleese, and is being distributed by the as-yet-unknown Ilion Entertainment. Trailers, posters and commercials have abounded for the last few months regarding Planet 51, but will it be enough? It is one of only two animated films remaining for the entire year, but the other one is The Princess and the Frog, which is a throwback to the glory days of hand-drawn Disney classics, and you can bet your bottom dollar that the House of Mouse will be pulling out all the stops to make THAT one a hit. Planet 51 has only a few short weeks to make its bones before it gets washed away in a flood of holiday movies.
$13 in Ultimate ($15 in Box Office) would seem way to steep a price to pay, unless you think this film has $75 million, eight Top 5, four PTA and a good User Rating in it. Personally, I don’t. I am more inclined to believe $50 million (tops), four Top 5 points, and a fair User Rating, but that’s it. Animated movies tend to have decent legs, but Planet 51 seems more like Astro Boy than Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs to me. (And no, this one AIN’T coming in 3-D.)
My predictions for the weekend of November 20-22, 2009:
1. Twilight: New Moon - $76 million
2. 2012 - $30 million
3. The Blind Side - $23 million
4. Planet 51 - $16 million
5. A Christmas Carol - $15 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, three more films hit theaters at roughly the same time frozen turkeys will be flying off the shelves of your local supermarket. Coming out on Wednesday, November 25th, will be: Old Dogs, a silly-looking slapstick comedy starring John Travolta and Robin Williams; The Road, a post-apocalyptic drama based on the Cormac McCarthy book and starring Viggo Mortensen; Ninja Assassin, the latest cool-looking actioner from The Matrix creators the Wachowski Brothers; and I will also say a few words about The Princess and the Frog, which will be opening in limited release before it goes wide on December 11th.
Later!
