SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/8/11

[Buscemi]

Friday Numbers/Weekend Estimates

1. Hop (Universal) Week 2 [3,636 Theaters]
Friday $5.5M (-53%), Estimated Weekend $20M

2. Arthur (Warner Bros) NEW [3,276 Theaters]
Friday $4.5M, Estimated Weekend $13M

3. Hanna (Focus) NEW [2,535 Theaters]
Friday $3.8M, Estimated Weekend $11.5M

4. Soul Surfer (Sony) NEW [2,214 Theaters]
Friday $3.5M, Estimated Weekend $10.5M

5. Your Highness (Universal) NEW [2,769 Theaters]
Friday $3.5M, Estimated Weekend $9.5M

Wow, James Franco can't seem to buy a hit. Your Highness is a flop and Soul Surfer will outgross 127 Hours despite worse reviews and poorer quality filmmaking (though Fox is blame mostly for the latter since the marketing was horrible on it). Maybe he should have been let out of the Oscar telecast like he had asked.

[W]

Dang it! Beat me by a minute or so. Both Your Highness and Arthur were destined to fail by being put on the same date, choosing medieval times as a main theme, and making a Russell Brand comedy without an R rating.

[undeadmonkey]

Your Highness looked/looks awful. Arthur is still doing about what was expected, (not sure what you mean by fail) i'm no fan of brand but people seem to like him.

Going to see Hanna tomorrow, everything i've heard from it so far just makes me want to see it more, hopefully it stands up to the expectations. Glad that it and Soul Surfer are doing well, Ronan and Robb both seem like fantastic young actress (so far from the few films i've seen of them) hopefully this will lead them to bigger and better roles. I would definitely have them around rather than the likes of miley cyrus or vanessa hudgens.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Glad Your Highness is flopping. Maybe this'll show actors and directors you can't just fuck around with a camera and expect people to pay to see it.

Plus who did they think really wanted to see a medieval comedy?

I'm going to see Hanna on Sunday, and may check out Arthur if I'm really bored.

[Buscemi]

Fans of Monty Python?

[W]

Your Highness looked/looks awful. Arthur is still doing about what was expected, (not sure what you mean by fail) i'm no fan of brand but people seem to like him.

Going to see Hanna tomorrow, everything i've heard from it so far just makes me want to see it more, hopefully it stands up to the expectations. Glad that it and Soul Surfer are doing well, Ronan and Robb both seem like fantastic young actress (so far from the few films i've seen of them) hopefully this will lead them to bigger and better roles. I would definitely have them around rather than the likes of miley cyrus or vanessa hudgens.

Maybe it didn't fail if you look at expectations, but I don't believe it'll make it's money back and I think it could easily have done a lot better if they'd have let Brand do pretty much whatever the Hell he wanted, got an R rating, opened it in the summer, and made it feel a little more like Get Him to the Greek it'd have done some decent numbers, so on those two fronts it failed.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

Hop, $5.5M
Arthur, $4.5M
Hanna, $4.1M
Your Highness, $3.7M
Soul Surfer, $3.6M
Insidious, $3.3M
Source Code, $2.8M
Limitless, $1.7M
Wimpy Kid 2, $1.3M
Lincoln Lawyer, $1.3M

[Buscemi]

There were a lot of people at Soul Surfer and Insidious at the theatre I was at tonight.

[W]

Love the Grandpa Palledorous avatar Busc. The Sandlot is one of my favorites (literally).

BO Mojo has their weekend predictions :

1. Hop $29.696
2. Arthur $12.625
3. Hanna $12.323
4. Surfer $11.100
5. Insidious $9.739
6. Highness $9.520
7. Source Code $9.050

And it looks like I made a good choice with Meek's Cutoff and it'll take down the weekend's PTA with $12,000.

[Shrykespeare]

Actually, HERE are BOM's Sunday predictions

Top 5:
5 points - Hop, $21.7M
4 points - Arthur, $12.6M
3 points - Hanna, $12.3M
2 points - Soul Surfer, $11.1M
1 point - Insidious, $9.7M (only a 26% drop, very unusual for a horror film)
Your Highness, $9.5M

PTA:
5 points - Meek's Cutoff
4 points - Hop
3 points - Win Win
2 points - Soul Surfer
1 point - Hanna

Note: For the Feb/Mar leagues, remove Win Win and insert Born to Be Wild at #5 (so far).

Dammit, I ended up removing Meek's Cutoff from all my slates! (No word yet on Ceremony.)

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Sunday Actuals

Top 5:
5 points - Hop, $21.2M
4 points - Hanna, $12.4M
3 points - Arthur, $12.2M
2 points - Soul Surfer, $10.6M
1 point - Insidious, $9.4M
Your Highness, $9.3M
Born to Be Wild, $856K

PTA (Feb, Mar leagues)
5 points - Meek's Cutoff, $10,012
4 points - Hop, $5,890
3 points - Win Win, $5,089 (that's SIXTEEN total PTA)
2 points - Hanna, $4,880
1 point - Soul Surfer, $4,789

PTA (Apr leagues)
5 points - Meek's Cutoff, $10,012
4 points - Hop, $5,890
3 points - Hanna, $4,880
2 points - Soul Surfer, $4,789
1 point - Born to Be Wild, $4,156
Ceremony - $3,460


User Ratings:
Hanna - 8.1
Arthur - 4.9
Soul Surfer - 5.9
Your Highness - 6.3
Born to Be Wild - 6.4
Meek's Cutoff - 7.0
Ceremony - 6.7



So Meek's Cutoff and Hanna turn out to be the best picks of the bunch. The former is not a surprise, but the latter sure is. Opinions?

[Chienfantome]

I'm glad I've picked Win Win several times
Although picking Your Highness sure makes it even

[Shrykespeare]

Maybe we should call it "Your Lowness".

[Buscemi]

Early report on April 22nd releases: African Cats has made $1.7 million in pre-sales.

[silversurfer19]

I don't know if Hanna was so much off a surprise, it hit pretty much what expectations have been for it's OW all along. I think it's more a case that everything else underperformed, especially so Your Highness. Glad I dropped that at the last minute. Disappointed with Born To Be Wild though, I thought even with its 200 theatre opening it could bring in a couple of PTA this weekend. Maybe it will have more success in future weeks.