SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/8/11

[Shrykespeare]

After all these years, it never ceases to amaze me how lame-looking kids’ movies always seem to charm the pants off of moviegoers. Despite the lackluster reviews, Hop bounded to an impressive $38 million OW, a true testament to harmless fluff in cinema (both metaphorically and actuality). Hop also became the first weekend box-office champ to win the PTA race in a while, which is also a feat in itself.

And it’s very possible, even likely, that Hop will repeat as champion this week, since it doesn’t look like any of the four big films coming out this weekend will even be able to crack $15 million. Given that kids’ movies tend to have great legs (insert your own rabbit’s feet joke here), you can expect a Hop drop somewhere in the 25-35% range.

There’s a lot of ground to cover today (four wide and three limited releases), so I won’t dawdle any more. The film with arguably the most potential of the four wide releases is Your Highness, the latest adult-centric comedy from Universal and director David Gordon Green (Pineapple Express, Snow Angels). The film stars Green’s longtime friend, comedian Danny McBride (Eastbound & Down), along with recent Oscar winner Natalie Portman, Oscar nominee and host James Franco, Zooey Deschanel, Toby Jones, Justin Theroux, Michael Clarke Duncan and Charles Dance (haven’t seen him for YEARS!).

Taking place in medieval times, Your Highness appears to incorporate modern humor, creating a rollicking, raunchy story in a very tongue-in-cheek (or tongue-in-ass, actually) manner. The story: McBride plays Thadeous, a lazy, arrogant prince who must go on an “epic quest” with his brother Fabious (Franco) in order to save their father’s kingdom from evil wizard Leezar (Theroux), who has also captured Fabious’s virginal bride Belladonna (Deschanel). Along for the ride is Isabel (Portman), a warrior princess who is also Thadeous’s love interest.

Rated R for “strong crude and sexual content, pervasive language, nudity, violence and some drug use” (the mother lode!), Your Highness will be debuting in roughly 2,600 theaters this Friday. It’s only $12 in Ultimate leagues ($13 in Box Office), but – and this will be a recurring theme this week – I really wouldn’t take it. Unfortunately sandwiched between bigger, better films like last week’s Hop and next week’s Rio and Scream 4, Your Highness may indeed top the rest of a very mediocre field and grab #2, garnering six Top 5 points, $35 million and a so-so Rating, but that’s honestly all you will get out of it. I’d pass.

In 1981, Dudley Moore’s Arthur was a smash hit, earning $95 million (that would be around $250 million at today’s prices). His portrayal of Arthur, a drunken billionaire playboy who stands to lose his vast fortune if he doesn’t marry a wealthy heiress that he does not love, was one of Moore’s most famous roles. Three decades later, rising comedic star Russell Brand (Get Him to the Greek) steps into Moore’s shoes in this remake, which is helmed by Jason Winer.

The supporting cast of this version of Arthur is also very impressive; it includes Jennifer Garner as the reluctant Arthur’s betrothed, Helen Mirren as his overprotective nanny, Luis Guzman as his chauffeur/best friend and Greta Gerwig as Naomi, a tour guide who Arthur becomes enamored of against his family's wishes.

So the big question is: can Russell Brand strike gold two weeks in a row? It’s hard for me to believe so. Warner Bros. has only done a so-so job marketing this film, which is rated PG-13 and is bowing in over 3,200 theaters nationwide. It will run you only $10 in both leagues, but for that, you won’t get near enough in any category to make it worth it. Pass on this one as well.

Up third this week is Focus Features’ Hanna, the latest outing from acclaimed British director Joe Wright, who has helmed dramas like Pride & Prejudice, Atonement and The Soloist. Hanna promises just as much drama, but also far more action and adventure as those films. It, too, is rated PG-13 and will be premiering in roughly 2,500 theaters starting Friday.

The main character, the titular character Hanna, is played by Atonement star Saoirse Ronan (who just turned 17). She is a teenage girl raised – and trained – by her father Erik (Eric Bana), an ex-CIA agent in the snowy wilds of Finland. One day, Erik decides to make his presence known to his superiors, especially the ruthless Marissa Wiegler (Cate Blanchett), but when agents show up, all they find is Hanna, who they do not know has been molded into the perfect assassin. I won’t reveal much more about the plot, because, honestly, I have no idea what it is. Olivia Williams and Jason Flemyng costar.

The idea of a teenage assassin seems like a cool one on paper, and, in the hands of a better marketing department, this might have had a chance to prosper. But it didn’t, and it won’t. Despite the terrific early reviews (6/7 positive on RT), I fully expect this film to disappear with barely a blip by the time the summer films roll into theaters. Hanna, like Arthur, is priced at $10 in both leagues, but its prospects are so limited in every category (save perhaps Rating) that I’ll just say “pass on it” and leave it at that. (For the record, I’ll predict $8/$19.)

Then we have Soul Surfer, a sports drama from TriStar pictures (who is, really, just a shadow of their once-powerful former selves). It tells the true story of Bethany Hamilton (played by Annasophia Robb), a surfing prodigy who tragically lost her left harm in a tiger shark attack in 2003. Director Mark McNamara (Bratz, yes, Bratz) seems to be tackling a more serious subject than usual, and has brought in acting veterans Dennis Quaid and Helen Hunt to play Bethany’s parents. (Country superstar Carrie Underwood also makes her big-screen debut here.)

I know many of you are fans of uplifting sports dramas (Geez, I’m looking at you), and I’m one myself. And I can’t imagine the fortitude it must have taken for Bethany to get back on the board mere weeks later, but that doesn’t mean I’m all that interested in revisiting her story. Perhaps I’m in the minority, but this seems to me like a Lifetime Hallmark Hall of Fame outing than a serious contender for big-screen bucks.

The good news is, Soul Surfer is cheap: only $6 in Ultimate and $7 in Box Office. But even so, can you see this film topping $30, $40 million? I sure can’t, especially not given its limited platform of only 2,100 screens. If you really need something similarly priced, Water For Elephants might be a better pick. (Accent on “might”.)

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited release films:

Born to Be Wild 3D ($4 Ult, $3 BO) – This is the second of three major nature documentaries to come out in a very short time, following March’s The Last Lions and preceding DisneyNature’s next Earth Day outing African Cats. But rather than focusing on gargantuan felines, Born to Be Wild is a story about orphaned orangutans and elephants, and it is narrated by, you guessed it, Morgan Freeman, maybe the most recognizable voice in the biz.

Rather than a mere overview, this documentary focuses on several teams of humans as well, dedicated people who rescued these animals as newborns and nursed them into adulthood. Shot in the lust rain forests of Borneo, Born to Be Wild looks to be a rousing real-world adventure… in 3D, no less. The trouble is, it will be shown in over 200 locations, which, unfortunately, puts it in that no-man’s-land where it won’t make enough money to be worth its price tag in dollars earned and is too widely distributed to be a viable source of PTA. Kind of a shame, really.

Meek’s Cutoff ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – Well, after five unrecommendable features, finally one I can give a thumbs-up to. It’s gotten great reviews so far (9/12 at RT) and has a pretty decent Rating (7.2/242 votes); it was also nominated for the coveted Golden Lion award at last year’s Venice Film Festival (and also appeared at Toronto, New York and Sundance), and it stars two-time Oscar-nominated actress Michelle Williams in the lead role.

Williams plays Emily Tetherow, one of a group of settlers traveling through the harsh terrain of Oregon in 1845. As conditions worsen, Emily begins to wonder if their guide (Bruce Greenwood) has deliberately led them into danger. The film was directed by Kelly Reichardt (Wendy and Lucy), and also stars Shirley Henderson, Will Patton and Paul Dano.

Meek’s Cutoff will be debuting in only two theaters this weekend. For $4, I think PTA points could indeed be likely, and I would definitely given this title the nod over Ceremony, which I’ll talk about in a bit. If there is one film worth its price tag this week, this is definitely it.

Ceremony ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This, the debut film from director Max Winkler (yes, Henry’s son), also premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. It, too, has a 7.2 Rating, and will also be bowing in two theaters, but the similarities between Ceremony and Meek’s Cutoff end there, most notably because the early reviews for Ceremony have been terrible (only 1/5 positive at RT).

Sam Davis (Michael Angarano) browbeats his estranged friend to spending a weekend together in a beachside town, though his real motive is do prevent Zoe (Uma Thurman), an older woman that Sam has a crush on, from marrying her fiancé (Lee Pace), a famous documentary filmmaker. Having seen the trailer and skimmed the reviews, I can’t imagine that this film is going to pack ‘em in, any more than Uma will make any strides towards relevance again. Does QT still have her number?


My predictions for the weekend of April 8-10, 2011:

1. Hop - $22 million
2. Your Highness - $13 million
3. Arthur - $12 million
4. Very close four-way race between Source Code’s second week, Insidious’s second week, Hanna and Soul Surfer.

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, things take a turn for the better with two very different films: Rio, an animated film from the makers of Ice Age; Scream 4, the long-awaited next chapter in the well-known horror franchise; as well as three limited-release features: The Conspirator (Robert Redford’s latest), A Screaming Man and The Princess of Montpensier.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Jamie Lynn Spears (Zoey 101) (20 on 4/4)
Michael Moriarty (Law & Order, won numerous other Emmy Awards) (70 on 4/5)
Steven Seagal (currently doing True Justice TV show) (60 on 4/10)


Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Hop $19 million
2. Your Highness $13 million (it will have a good Friday but drop quickly due to the film supposedly being nothing like the trailers and Franco and Portman having much smaller roles than the ads make them out to be)
3. Arthur $10 million
4. Source Code $9 million
5. Hanna $8 million
-- Soul Surfer $6.5 million (the film looks incredibly corny but Christian audiences are buying up tickets for some reason)
-- Insidious $5 million

And it's funny that you mention TriStar. I expected that Sony would reactivate that division full-time after District 9's success (and at one point, they were signed on to distribute all of FilmDistrict's titles but only got the US rights to Soul Surfer) but instead Sony continued to give all the good non-Columbia releases to Screen Gems (whose head thought it was a good idea to spend $55 million plus $40 million in prints and advertising on Burlesque) while TriStar got solely pickups and Christian films (the exception being the foreign rights to Faster).

[undeadmonkey]

I think your mostly right, except that Your Highness and Arthur will be flipped. not that it matters for the game, but i will definitely be seeing Hanna next weekend. It look intriguing.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I think Your Highness actually has the least potential of anything, it looks awful, and has a Knights-of-the-Roundtable/sword-and-armor comedy ever worked? I love Danny McBride but this looks so retarded, I would never pay to see this. Hell, I see movies for free, and I'm still not sure I want to see it.

Hanna looks the best, but money-wise, I think nothing will bring in any big bucks.

[numbersix]

I think Your Highness actually has the least potential of anything, it looks awful, and has a Knights-of-the-Roundtable/sword-and-armor comedy ever worked?

Monty Python and the Quest for the Holy Grail?

[Buscemi]

Banks doesn't know how good a swashbuckling adventure feels.

[numbersix]

Hmmm, it's a tough weekend to call. They all seem like somewhat underwhelming releases. Part of me thinks Your Highness may surprise as it's not exactly the norm, and may become a bit of a cult film. But I can't see it do any better than, say, Kick Ass.
Arthur was being hyped mon ths ago but I don't know why. I'm not convinced Brand can lead, and it looks like a poor Adam Sandler movie (yes, I know it's a remake of a Dudley Moore film). Hanna has promise but as you say Shryke Focus Features are a bit too weak to sell something like this. Might have legs if the reviews and public perception remains strong. Soul Surfer will sink.

On the PTA front I think Meek's Cutoff will do well. Reichardt is becoming an interesting director and Wendy and Lucy did get some PTA points. I'm not going near the other two.

My guesstimates

1. Hop - $23 million
2. Your Highness - $17 million
3. Arthur - $10 million
4. Hanna - $9.5 million
5. Source Code - $8 million

[Buscemi]

I can see Born To Be Wild opening to $1.5-2 million. Warner Bros. promoted it heavily during the Christmas season (nearly every kids' movie released in that period had a trailer for it) and there will be a lot of showings on it due to the short run time. And like most IMAX films, it will have legs.

[numbersix]

True, IMAX films have legs, but the problem is if that will translate into any worthy points for the game. To open to 1.5mil it'll need a PTA of $7500-$8000 which is quite a lot for a film opening in 200+ theatres, especially when HD nature documentaries are so abundant on TV. Deep Sea 3D kicked ass, that's true, but it never opened in more than 50 theatres ever.

[transformers2]

I don't know this weekend will pan out. Although I really want to see Your Highness(due to the cast and the red-band trailer), the commericals looks pretty stupid. I think Arthur will end doing better. Hanna looks like a bomb and I don't Soul Surfer will do much either.

1.Hop $24 Mil
2.Arthur $15 Mil
3.Your Highness $12 Mil
4.Source Code $ 10 Mil
5.Insidious $8 Mil

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Arthur - 3,276
Your Highness - 2,769
Hanna - 2,535
Soul Surfer - 2,214
Born to Be Wild - 206
Meek's Cutoff - 2
Ceremony - 2

At the last moment, I decided to remove Meek's Cutoff from my April Ultimate slates. The declining User Rating is starting to worry me.


Estimates for next week's releases:

Rio - 3,800
Scream 4 - 3,300
The Conspirator - 550 (and there goes any hope for PTA for this one...)
The Princess of Montpensier - 3
A Screaming Man (Wed.) - N/A


So without Meek's Cutoff and The Conspirator, I'm torn between which PTA-likely films to choose. Incendies seems like a given, as does Midnight in Paris, but I need one more. I'm torn between Everything Must Go, Beginners, Submarine or maybe even The First Grader. (I can't afford Tree of Life, I'm $1 short.)

[Buscemi]

The Conspirator was always meant to go that wide (with Redford paying for some of the prints and advertising). However, Box Office Mojo never listed it as such.

Interestingly enough, the estimate was 700 theatres earlier. However, the final number could be that high since I've noticed several theatres are doing pre-sales.

[W]

Deadline says that Soul Surfer is, as of early tracking, #2 but believes it will change before it's all said and done. Hop is #1 in the low $20's and Hanna "is a little better than where the studio expected for matinees."

[Buscemi]

What is with Christians loving extremely cheesy movies while good films about Christianity (such as Amazing Grace) don't do much?

[W]

You say cheesy, they say uplifting.