SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

It would appear that the bloom is off the proverbial rose for Zack Snyder, whose latest outing Sucker Punch could only manage $19 million and a second-place finish in its first three days. The swords-and-machine-guns CGI film simply couldn’t compete with 12-year-olds getting themselves in awkward situations, as Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules debuted with an impressive $24.4 million, easily taking the box office crown. And how about Paul Giamatti’s latest vehicle Win Win, which repeated as PTA champion just ahead of new releases Miral and Potiche.

This Friday is April Fool’s Day, and should you survive the first cuts of the Super Leagues, now is the time that you really want to build up some momentum. The April-to-June leagues start this weekend, and I know a lot of you are of the mindset that most April films won’t even hold a candle to those coming out in May (or even June), and you may very well be right. But given the huge prices attached to the May blockbusters, you simply cannot fill out an entire roster with biggies (well, not in Ultimate, anyway)… the seasoned players will remind you that you need 1-2 high-dollar films, 2-3 mid-range films, and the rest of your roster filled out with worthy PTA picks. The next four weeks will see 23 films come out, all less than $20, so if you’re not one for back-loading your slate, this could be the part of the season that makes or breaks your chances of advancing.

Christmas-themed movies are nothing new. Every winter, we expect several films to hit theaters directly related to the spirit of the Christmas holiday, which may or may not feature Santa Claus as a central or peripheral character. Speaking of which, nearly every facet of Santa’s mythos has been explored in movie form, usually for comedic purposes. But the Easter Bunny? Has hardly been touched. And I suppose it’s understandable… unlike Christmas, Easter is one of those holidays that tends to pass unnoticed (except for its religious significance) by all but children who look forward to devouring rabbit- and egg-shaped chocolates and painting and hiding hard-boiled eggs for fun.

The legend of the Easter Bunny traces its origins back to the Holy Roman Empire (which was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire, discuss!), but I doubt that anyone back then would have envisioned that the legend would eventually spawn the notion behind Hop, which will debut in 3,400 theaters this Friday. Directed by Tim Hill (Alvin and the Chipmunks), Hop tells the story of E.B. (voiced by Arthur star Russell Brand), a “teenage” rabbit who, on the eve of taking over the exalted position of Easter Bunny from his father (Hugh Laurie), decides to leave his home on Easter Island (heh) to pursue his dream of becoming… a drummer. Hmm. Well, it sounds cooler than singing in high-pitched, squeaky voices.

Fate takes a turn when E.B. has a brush with a car driven by unemployed slacker Fred (James Marsden). Feigning an injury, E.B. manipulates Fred to take him in while he “recovers”. While the two attempt to coexist despite numerous household hijinks, plots are being woven by a nefarious chick named Carlos (Hank Azaria), who thinks that chicks, not rabbits, should be in charge of Easter. Bwaahaaahaaa!

Now, I very much doubt that Hop will enjoy as much success as last summer’s hit Despicable Me (despite having the same screenwriters), but it should do okay. It will have to contend with Wimpy Kid 2’s second week, but Hop feels more good-natured and cutesy by comparison, despite being rated PG for “mild rude humor” (which certainly didn’t harm Alvin’s potential in the slightest). It will run you $16 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues for the Apr-Jun season, which means it would really have to earn $80 million to make it a truly worthwhile pick. I think it could get there, but that might be a stretch. I predict $23 million on its OW ($74 million overall), along with ten Top 5 points, two or three PTA and a so-so rating. In the end, I would have to give Hop a marginal thumbs-down for game purposes.

I am a big fan of thrillers, especially if they have sci-fi elements, so I found the premise behind Source Code to be intriguing as soon as I heard about it. Combining elements from past TV shows like Quantum Leap and Seven Days, Source Code centers on the character of decorated airman Capt. Colter Stevens (Jake Gyllenhaal), who is taking part in a government mission to discover who bombed a Chicago commuter train and possibly thwart another terrorist plot as well.

He does this by entering a machine that “beams” his consciousness into the body of a passenger on that train, where he only has eight minutes to glean whatever information he can before the train explodes… and then start the process over again. Along the way, he develops a bond with another passenger (Michelle Monaghan), and Colter must decide whether to cross the line from information-gathering to changing events in order to save her life. Vera Farmiga and Jeffrey Wright also co-star.

I like this idea, and the fact that Source Code is directed by Duncan Jones, who helmed the exceptional sci-fi film Moon a couple of years ago, is another point in its favor. Most critics have loved it so far (22/26 positive reviews on RT), and its early Rating is awesome (8.0 with 470 votes). The downside is, Summit Entertainment has had a hard time generating hits that don’t have the word Twilight in the title. I would wish that Source Code could at least eclipse (heh) the 2009 sci-fi thriller Knowing, which looked so good in the trailers and turned out to be a horrible movie, but I won’t hold my breath.

BoxOffice.com predicts $16 million for Source Code’s first three days, and that sounds pretty good to me. In all, I predict seven Top 5 points, one or two PTA and about $47 million in total take, along with a very good Rating in the low-to-mid 7’s. For $11 (in both leagues), once again, I have to give Source Code a marginal thumbs-down.

It’s rare that a horror film is well-reviewed by critics. Both the original Saw and Paranormal Activity films are just such a case. Now, the people who had a hand in both films, arguably the most famous and successful horror franchises of the past ten years, have teamed up to create Insidious, and it, too, has been very well-reviewed so far (8/11 on RT, 7.2/301 votes on IMDb). James Wan (who directed Saw) and Leigh Whannell (who co-produced Saw and starred in it as well) are together again, and that alone makes this worth a look.

The story: a young couple named Josh and Renai (Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne) become distressed when their young son Dalton (Ty Simpkins) becomes comatose after a fall. The become even more distressed when they learn that evil forces have begun to swirl around Dalton’s body, while his mind is trapped in a dark realm known as “The Further”. Don’t you just hate when that happens? Barbara Hershey, Lin Shaye and, whaddaya know, Leigh Whannell co-star.

Cleverly written, well-acted and well-directed Insidious MAY be, but the trailer, along with what few commercials I’ve seen of it, paint a picture of a very garden-variety haunted-house-slash-demonic-possession story. I’m very curious to know just what separates this film from stories like that, but I am having a hard time seeing potential moviegoers splitting that hair. And with only 2,300 theaters showing Insidious, it’s entirely possible that it will miss out on the Top 5 altogether. For $7 in Ultimate ($6 in Box Office), you will get a decent Rating and maybe one PTA point, but that’s about it. Pass.

Well, there were no recommendations I could make among the wide-release films. Fortunately, the limited-release features this week seem to look a lot better on paper.

Super ($4 Ult, $3 BO) – Superhero movies involving superpower-less individuals seem to be a growing trend, given the success of last year’s Kick Ass (whose sequel is in the works). Super is not an action film, however. Nor is it a drama about one man’s struggle with his identity like last year's indie film Defendor. No, Super is a dark comedy written and directed by James Gunn (Slither), and it stars Rainn Wilson, Ellen Page, Kevin Bacon and Liv Tyler.

The main character is Frank D’Arbo (Wilson) who decides to transform himself into a costumed hero called the Crimson Bolt after his wife (Tyler) leaves him for a smooth-talking drug dealer named Jacques (Bacon). With the help of comic-book nerd Libby (Page) and armed only with his trusty “wrench of justice”, Frank must find a way to take Jacques down and win back his lady fair.

Super debuted at last year’s Toronto Film Festival to mostly-favorable reviews (at RT, 9/13 positive have been tabulated). Set to debut in eleven theaters this Friday, Super is virtually certain to garner at least three PTA points (esp. in the April leagues), and it has a terrific Rating (7.5/445 votes), which makes it a very worthy pick.

Rubber ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This is a French film, from a French director (Quentin Dupieux), though it was filmed in English, with mostly-American actors, and takes place in California. It is also one of the most singularly bizarre premises you’re likely to find on a big screen this year. Why? Well, it’s a horror film, and most of its horrific moments derive from a killing spree being perpetrated by… a tire. With psychic powers. Named Robert. (I’ll let that sink in for a moment.)

You know, I’m all for creativity and ingenuity, and this is certainly an original concept, and from the trailer, Rubber seems to successfully tread the line between effective satire and sheer ridiculousness (like a certain movie involving killer tomatoes). But will anyone go see this film other than out of a sense of morbid curiosity? It’s only showing in five theaters, and it’s gotten good reviews (6/9), but I would say Rubber is too experimental to be an effective pick. Nothing about it screams “PTA champ” like Win Win or Jane Eyre, that’s for sure. Its 6.3 Rating is pretty solid with over 1,600 votes, and that’s not enough to take it either.

In a Better World ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – Well, if any film is going to outdo Super in this inaugural week of the April season, it’s probably this film, which copped the Best Foreign Film Oscar last month (as well as the Golden Globe in the same category). It was showcased at Sundance and Toronto and has gotten, as you would expect, terrific reviews (12/15 positive).

Shot in Denmark and in the Danish language (with English subtitles), director Susanne Bier (Things We Lost in the Fire) has also gotten much critical acclaim for this film, which tales the story of a Swedish doctor named Anton (Mikael Persbrandt) who splits his time between an idyllic Danish town and a Sudanese refugee camp. While facing the tragedies of Africa, Anton also faces family troubles at home; he is separated from his wife and his twelve-year-old son Elias is being bullied at school, and the violence of both worlds provide a very sharp contrast despite being eerily similar in many ways for Anton.

In a Better World will be debuting on American soil in an unspecified number of locations in New York and Los Angeles. It would seem to be a foregone conclusion that, given its position in the opening week of the month and its Academy Award, it has the best chance of any film this week to be PTA champ. Granted, not every film that wins this particular Oscar is a guaranteed PTA titan, but this could be one that is the exception rather than the rule. For $3, you could certainly do much, much worse. I would take either this film or Super; hell, I might even consider taking both.


My predictions for the weekend of April 1-3, 2011:

1. Hop - $23 million
2. Source Code - $16 million
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules - $15 million
4. Sucker Punch - $11 million
5. Limitless - $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, seven more movies hit screens, including: Your Highness, a medieval romp starring James Franco and Natalie Portman; Hanna, an action-thriller starring Cate Blanchett, Eric Bana and Saoirse Ronan; Arthur, a remake of the 1981 film with Russell Brand stepping into Dudley Moore’s shoes; Soul Surfer, a sports drama starring Annasophia Robb and Dennis Quaid; as well as limited-release features Born to Be Wild, Meek’s Cutoff and Ceremony.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Julia Stiles (Dexter, the Bourne trilogy) (30 on 3/28)
Ewan McGregor (next up in Soderbergh’s Haywire) (40 on 3/31)
Susan Boyle (Britain’s Got Talent phenom) (50 on 4/1)
Christopher Meloni (Law & Order: SVU) (50 on 4/2)
Eddie Murphy (next up in Brett Ratner’s Tower Heist this November) (50 on 4/3)


Later!






Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by numbersix »

Latest (and somewhat inaccurate) tracking:
Hop: low 30s
Source Code: high teens
Insidious: low double digits

I don't know what to make of Hop. I haven't seen or heard much, there's not much buzz, Wimpy Kid 2 is just out, Rio is coming soon... could this end up a lot worse than expected? Possibly.
Source Code doesn't seem like a sure-fire hit to me. Could do even worse than expected. And Insidious probably won't do well. Sure, it could be a Haunting in Connecticut but it's more likely another Ruins.

I'll go for

1. Hop - $23 million
2. Source Code - $14 million
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules - $12 million
4. Limitless - $10 million
5. Sucker Punch - $9 million
(Insidious - $8million)

As for PTA, I think it's a toss-up between Super and In a Better World. Super is out in 11, which may be a tad too much so the Oscar winner may take it. Rubber has been available to download for a few weeks so it may not make much of a mark.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by Buscemi »

1. Hop $25 million
2. Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 $15 million
3. Source Code $13.5 million
4. Limitless $10 million
5. Insidious $8 million
-- Sucker Punch $6 million

As for PTA, I'll give it to In A Better World. The superhero fanboys are claiming that Super is ripping off Kick-Ass (without even seeing the film) so that will hurt it. However, IFC and James Gunn releasing the film unrated (an NC-17 rating was expected from the MPAA) will keep it in a small amount of theatres (the four biggest cities in my state are getting it over a four week period though beginning April 15th).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by W »

Hop is everywhere. It's all over Wal-Mart and I keep seeing ads everywhere. My kid wants to see it. It reminds me of Alvin and the Chipmunks kind of. That said, I haven't grabbed it yet.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by Buscemi »

MTC Tracking:

Hop $21 million
Source Code $14 million
Insidious $8 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official theater counts:

Hop - 3,577
Source Code - 2,961
Insidious - 2,408
Super - 11
Rubber - 5
In a Better World - 4

Estimates for next week:

Arthur - 3,200+
Hanna - 2,500
Soul Surfer - 2,100
Your Highness - N/A
Born to Be Wild - 200+
Meek's Cutoff - N/A
Ceremony - 2
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by Buscemi »

You are probably wondering why Born To Be Wild is getting such a wide run. The reason is that Warner Bros. is having most theatres run it with Sucker Punch (Born To Be Wild is getting matinees, Sucker Punch is getting evenings) due to the latter's disappointing opening and weak word-of-mouth. This is similar to when Disney brought back I Am Number Four for evenings after Mars Needs Moms flopped.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by Brockster »

That bascially kills Born's PTA chances, no?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by Geezer »

That Rubber movie will either be the best or worst thing ever made, there is next to no in between. I sure am intrigued as hell by it though.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by numbersix »

Geezer wrote:That Rubber movie will either be the best or worst thing ever made, there is next to no in between. I sure am intrigued as hell by it though.
Hah, I pretty much think the same (and am intrigued). I suspect it is a better idea as a trailer and as a film it'll wear thin, excusing the pun.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by Buscemi »

I wasn't expecting the critics to be trashing Super like they are. And mostly for the same reason (they claim it's too violent). Could we be seeing a cult classic in the works?

And on Rubber: either way it goes, it will still have the distinction of having the cutest horror movie villain in history.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Funny enough, we had midnights last night for Source Code, Hop, and Insidious.

And I expected a lot for Source Code, but there was only around 15 people, while Insidious had almost 100!

Could Insidious be a surprise this weekend?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by W »

Deadline:

Hop $35 M weekend
Source Code $15 M weekend

that is all
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by W »

Deadline:

1. Hop $11.4 M Fri/$38 M weekend
2. Source Code $5.2/$14.5
3. Insidious $5/$12
4. Wimpy Kid 3/11 (-58%)
5. Limitless 3.2/10.5
6. Lincoln Lawyer 2.2/8
7. Sucker Punch 2/6 (-74%)
8. Rango 1.3/5
9. Paul 1.3/4.5
10. Battle: LA 1.1/4
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/1/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

thank goodness i picked up Hop in quite a few slates. Will definitely make up a bit for the stinker that is Suckerpunch. Also helping is that so few people have it. my only regret is that i didn't pick it up in all slates, it could very well repeat at number one next week.

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