SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/25/11

[Shrykespeare]

This past weekend was a testament to the phrase “spread the wealth”. Five films (three of them new ones) broke $13 million in total earnings this weekend, though none of them had the mustard to break $20 million, thought Bradley Cooper’s new drama Limitless came the closest, earning $19 million. The rest of the field was very bunched, and this weekend promises to be no different. Hats off also to Win Win, which did exactly that in the PTA race.

The final weekend of March, in the past few years, has heralded the latest big-budget animated release from DreamWorks. However, that studio will not have an outing this year. Director Zack Snyder, on the other hand, is making his third March appearance in the last five years. In 2007, he walloped the box office with 300, the very stylized comic-book-looking tale of the Spartans and the Battle of Thermopylae. In 2009, he developed the graphic novel Watchmen for the big screen, to significantly less success and far more mixed reviews. In 2001, Snyder (who will be taking over the Superman franchise) brings us Sucker Punch, a story that Snyder also wrote and co-produced.

Described by Snyder as “Alice in Wonderland with machine guns” (as well as dragons, B-25 bombers and brothels), Sucker Punch takes place in a mental institution in the 1950s. A girl known as Baby Doll (Emily Browning) is committed by her stepfather against her will, and her only sanctuary is her vivid imagination, which provides an escape from the horrors of her reality. Sucker Punch is the story of Baby Doll’s adventures, which will fantastically blur the lines between the real and imaginary.

Also along for the ride are some of Baby Doll’s fellow inmates, who join her on her quest for “freedom”: the outspoken Rocket (Jena Malone), the street-smart Blondie (Vanessa Hudgens, also in Beastly), the loyal Amber (Jamie Chung), and the reluctant Sweet Pea (Abbie Cornish, also in Limitless). Also co-starring are Carla Gugino, Jon Hamm and Scott Glenn.

Sucker Punch’s run time, which has been wildly speculated about, has reportedly been trimmed to about two hours. However, the general consensus seems to be that this film will fall short of what even Watchmen did. Scheduled for release in over 3,000 theaters, BoxOffice.com predicts an OW of only $19 million and $48 million. I think it will do slightly better than that, making $21 in its first three days and $55 over its run, along with eight Top 5 points, three PTA and a Rating in the low 7’s. Despite how much I myself am looking forward to seeing this film, I know I’m in the minority. Therefore, I cannot recommend selecting this film, which has a rather hefty price tag of $19 in Ultimate ($21 in Box Office). Too bad, really.

Last year, the first film to be adapted from Jeff Kinney’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid books was brought to the big screen, earning a healthy $22 million on its OW and $64 million overall. This week, the second chapter in the series, entitled Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules, will debut in about 3,100 theaters.

The main character is Greg Heffley (Zachary Gordon), who along with his best friend Rowley (Robert Capron) are entering the seventh grade… being small for their age, it’s a struggle just to survive, as well as for Greg to try to impress Holly (Peyton List), a girl he’s crushing on. And if school wasn’t bad enough, Greg has to live with his domineering older brother Rodrick (Devon Bostick), and must find a way to cover for him when Rodrick decides to throw a party unbeknownst to their parents.

It’s really tough to gauge the potential of movies aimed specifically at kids. Even if I were still a kid, I don’t think I’d want to see Rodrick Rules any more than I wanted to see its predecessor, as it would appear that director David Bowers and his writers seem bound and determined to make life as humiliating and awkward for Greg as is humanly possible. And yes, if you care, pretty much all of the supporting characters are back for this second go-round.

This seems to be quite the season for kids’ movies. The question is, can Diary 2 find an audience in the wake of Rango’s success, an audience that Mars Needs Moms horrendously failed to capture? Or will audiences instead bypass this one in anticipation of friendlier-looking stories like Hop and Rio? Whatever the case, I don’t think Diary 2 will surpass its predecessor, earning $19 on its OW, along with six Top 5 points, perhaps two PTA, a middling Rating and about $52 million overall. I think that for $12 in Ultimate ($14 in Box Office), you can do better.

Only two limited-release features to talk about this week (a welcome respite after the plethora of indie films that have debuted in the last two weeks). The first is Miral, the first full-length feature from director Julian Schnabel since The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, for which he received almost universal acclaim and an Oscar nom for Best Director. The film stars as the title character actress Frieda Pinto, who you may remember was the leading actress in Danny Boyle’s Best Picture winner Slumdog Millionaire.

Based on the biographical novel by author Rula Jebreal, Miral chronicles the efforts of Hind Husseini (played by The Visitor’s Hiam Abbass) to establish an orphanage in Jerusalem following the establishment of the state of Israel just after the Arab-Israeli war of 1948. Thirty years after establishing the Dar Al-Tifel Institute (in 1978), a seven-year-old girl named Miral is sent there by her father following her mother’s death.

The meat of the story, I’m guessing, takes place when Miral comes of age when, at the age of 17, after having led a very sheltered life, she is assigned to teach at a refugee camp. There, she learns of the struggles of Palestinian refugees, and ends up falling for an activist named Hani (Omar Metwally), after which she must decide whether to remain a simple teacher or become part of the First Intifada (uprising) of the Palestinian people.

Despite the pedigree of this movie, which includes director Schnabel and a supporting cast that also includes Vanessa Redgrave, Willem Dafoe and Alexander Siddig, this film has singularly failed to resonate with critics. Only three of fifteen reviews at RT have been grudgingly positive, and pretty much every facet of this film has been cited as the reason for its failure. It will be debuting on four screens this weekend, but I think that for $5 in Ultimate, you’d best proceed with caution. Miral’s User Rating, currently at 6.0 with over 300 votes, is not likely to improve, nor is it likely to help you much. Oh, I’m not saying that it can’t possibly win the PTA race, I’m just saying that there are too many “ifs” attached to take that big a risk.

Last up this week is Potiche, a film that was just recently added to the roster. Set to debut in eight locations this Friday (and expanding by a further 15-30 locations each of the next three weeks), Potiche is a French/Belgian comedy from director François Ozon (Le refuge, Swimming Pool) that stars notable European actors such as Catherine Deneuve, Gerard Depardieu, Fabrice Luchini and Sergi Lopez (remember him as the villain from Pan’s Labyrinth?).

Set in 1977 and based on the play of the same name, Potiche tells the story of Suzanne Pujol (Deneuve), a submissive trophy wife (which is the translation for “Potiche”) who must take control of her husband’s umbrella factory after the factory’s employees revolt against their tyrannical manager and take him hostage. Further complicating matters is the arrival of Suzanne’s ex-lover Maurice (Depardieu), a former union leader.

French films are quite often excellent sources for PTA, and given this week’s competition, I see no reason by Potiche can’t jump up and snag some PTA points for the low price tag of $3. It’s also got a decent Rating (7.0 with over 700 votes), so it won’t hurt you in that category either. It will have to compete with Win Win’s second weekend as well as Jane Eyre’s third, but Potiche could definitely be worth a look.


My predictions for the weekend of March 25-27, 2011:

1. Sucker Punch - $21 million
2. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules - $19 million
3. Limitless - $11 million
4. Rango - $10 million
5. Battle: Los Angeles - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we begin the fourth month of 2011 with, ironically, six films opening on April Fools Day; Hop, a live-action-and-animated film where James Marsden meets the Easter Bunny; Source Code, a sci-fi thriller starring Jake Gyllenhaal; Insidious, a horror film from the creators of Paranormal Activity and Saw; as well as limited-release features Super, Rubber and In a Better World.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Tommy Hilfiger (designer) (60 on 3/24)
Nathan Fillion (Serenity, TV’s Castle) (40 on 3/27)
William Shatner (Star Trek’s original Captain Kirk) (80 on 3/22)
Leonard Nimoy (Star Trek’s original Mr. Spock) (80 on 3/26)
(Quite a coincidence!)


Later!

[numbersix]

Man, I don't know what to make of this weekend. Months ago I just assumed that Sucker Punch would be a sure-fire win. It's an action movie with a bunch of sexy girls. It looks like a video game. Surely the 300 fans would flock to see this? Now I'm not so sure. The tracking industry isn't particularly high on this. Part of me still thinks it will surprise, but all signs are pointing to failure.

Wimpy Kid 2 should do quite well, like the last one. My predictions

1. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules - $24 million
2. Sucker Punch - $22 million
3. Limitless - $10 million
4. Rango - $9 million
5. Battle: Los Angeles - $8 million

As for PTA, I'm keeping well away from Miral. I saw it last week and despite comign from Scnabel, it's a terrible film, and the critics are already slating it. I can't see it beating Jane Eyre, Win Win, Diary or Sucker. And Potiche may surprise (although Ozon is rarely a PTA champ in the US).

[Buscemi]

Let's go with...

1. Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 $23 million
2. Sucker Punch $17 million
3. Limitless $11 million
4. Rango $10 million
5. The Lincoln Lawyer $8 million

[undeadmonkey]

surprised by the low tracking of suckerpunch. at first the idea of it looked awful to me. but the closer to release date and the more i see, the more i'm intrigued and i will definitely be checking it out the upcoming weekend.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I don't know, I was down on Sucker Punch too, but the more I think about it, why couldn't it top a $30M opening weekend?

It looks cool, and it's catered to young males and teens, which really is the prime market for movies nowadays. If Battle: LA can manage an opening of $35M with a great trailer, why can't Sucker Punch come close to that with an equally great trailer?

It probably won't have great legs though.

[Buscemi]

The teaser was considered great. A lot of people hated the final trailer (the one shown before Black Swan) and the TV spots don't even bother to show a coherent plot (possibly the worst since Grindhouse's TV spots at doing this).

Also, action films with female leads never do well unless they have an established action actress (the only women that can sell an action film to men are Angelina Jolie and Milla Jovovich). Emily Browning, Vanessa Hudgens and Abbie Cornish are not established action stars. Hell, they are not established stars (except maybe Hudgens but she appeals solely to 12 year old girls and none of her non-High School Musical vehicles have done well).

I'm keeping my $17 million prediction followed by a 65% second week drop (word of mouth will be worse than Watchmen and the fanboys that trashed Snyder for making Legend of the Guardians will be praising him for that one).

[Buscemi]

MTC Projections:

Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 $27 million
Sucker Punch $18 million

[Brockster]

27M? Wow, that seems a little high considering the first one made 22M in it's opening weekend. Last weekend and this coming weekend have been really hard to gauge.

[Buscemi]

Well, it is based on a popular book series and the first film got a lot of mileage in theatres and on DVD (word of mouth was also positive).

Fox was smart to get a sequel out immediately while the gravy train was still rolling.

[Brockster]

good points...would be a good pick in the BO game if it opened that high and has some legs.

[Buscemi]

RS Tracking:

Sucker Punch: high 20's
Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 : low 20's

And keep in mind that RS is often inaccurate (for example, they expected Limitless to only do single digits).

[undeadmonkey]

all tracking is frequently inaccurate

[numbersix]

True, but several comparisons have shown that RS is the least accurate on any future tracking/prediction sites. I'm still not sure what to make of Sucker Punch. Could it surprise?

[Buscemi]

From the marketing, no. It's nothing more than a higher-budgeted version of The Spirit.

[Buscemi]

Twitter tracking according to Box Office:

Sucker Punch: underwhelming
Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2: very positive