SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Buscemi wrote:Year One was an enormous flop. Jack Black and him should not translate to only $43 million and it was clear proof that audiences are tiring of Cera (and Black as well). Nick and Norah was going to break profit no matter what (it cost just $10 million) and Superbad (which oddly enough has the same director as Paul) and Juno weren't sold on him (the former was sold on Apatow and Rogen, the latter was sold on Ellen Page and critical acclaim).

Cera headlined Youth In Revolt, Paper Heart and Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. All were flops (especially Scott Pilgrim, which bombed pretty much everywhere).
Year One was a flop in correlation to its budget, but $43M is a lot more than any Pegg film has done.

He DID headline Superbad and was the male lead in Juno - hell he takes up half the poster and got second billing behind Ellen Page.

No matter what way you spin it, Cera has had hits to his resume - movies where he's an integral character - while Pegg has not. And I repeat: Scott Pilgrim made more than ANY Simon Pegg starrer.

Universal knows this, and that's why Simon Pegg nor Nick Frost are on the theatrical poster for Paul.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official Theater Counts (the three new films are VERY close):

Paul - 2,801
Limitless - 2,756
The Lincoln Lawyer - 2,707
Cracks - 6
Win Win - 5
Winter in Wartime - 3
Desert Flower - 3


Estimates for next week's films:

Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 - 3,100
Sucker Punch - 3,000+
Miral - 4
Potiche - N/A


Current Rotten Tomatoes' scores:

Paul - 62% (48/77)
Limitless - 58% (31/53)
The Lincoln Lawyer - 81% (38/46) - Better than I expected. Looking forward to seeing it now.
Cracks - 38% (11/29)
Win Win - 89% (24/27)
Winter in Wartime - 85% (11/13)
Desert Flower - 50% (3/7)

Win Win should be the easy PTA winner. I think Winter in Wartime will get some as well.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by Buscemi »

The Lincoln Lawyer is tops in online ticket sales with 34% but only because of a promotion with Groupon that reduces ticket prices to $6. This could affect the box office.

As for next week's theatre counts, I'm not surprised Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 is getting more theatres than Sucker Punch. Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 is based on a popular book series and the last film was a hit. Sucker Punch has been testing horribly, had 50 minutes cut before release and Warner Bros. seems to be more interested in its other forthcoming films (Arthur, Something Borrowed, The Hangover Part II, Green Lantern).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by W »

How would it affect the box office? What would the BO statistics be based on, the $6 or whatever the theater charges?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by Buscemi »

The $6, most likely. The average ticket price is $8.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by W »

Deadline is saying that five films (Limitless, Paul, Lincoln Lawyer, Battle: LA, and Rango) are going to be between $12 M and $15 M and any one of them could win the weekend.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by W »

Limitless is Friday's definite #1. After that, no clue on the order.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

W was right. #2-#5 is going to be a toss-up.

Friday Estimates:

Limitless, $6.6M
Battle: Los Angeles, $4.5M
Paul, $4.4M
Rango, $4.25M
The Lincoln Lawyer, $4.1M
Red Riding Hood, $2.4M
The Adjustment Bureau, $1.8M
Mars Needs Moms, $1.5M
Beastly, $1.1M
Hall Pass, $840K
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by Buscemi »

I wouldn't be surprised if The Lincoln Lawyer turned out to be a legs film. The crowd reception at the showing I saw today was quite good (and had a good crowd for a morning showing).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Limitless, $19M
4 points - Rango, $15.3M
3 points - Battle: Los Angeles, $14.6M
2 points - The Lincoln Lawyer, $13.4M
1 point - Paul, $13.1M

PTA:
5 points - Win Win
4 points - Jane Eyre
3 points - Limitless
2 points - Kill the Irishman
1 point - Winter in Wartime

Desert Flower will not get any PTA. No word yet on Cracks.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

i so wish i had Jane Eyre in more than one slate. whats that, 9 PTA points now?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Actuals:

Top 5:
5 points - Limitless, $18.9M
4 points - Rango, $15.1M
3 points - Battle: Los Angeles, $14.5M
2 points - The Lincoln Lawyer, $13.2M
1 point - Paul, $13.0M


PTA:
5 points - Win Win, $30,072
4 points - Jane Eyre, $17,939
3 points - Limitless, $6,880
2 points - Kill the Irishman, $6,697
1 point - Certified Copy, $5,391
Winter in Wartime, $4,979
The Lincoln Lawyer, $4,879
Paul, $4,655
Desert Flower, $2,552

Still no word whatsoever on Cracks. Weird.


User Ratings:
Limitless - 7.3
The Lincoln Lawyer - 7.4
Paul - 7.4
Win Win - 7.6
Winter in Wartime - 7.1
Cracks - 6.7
Desert Flower - 7.0

Pretty good Ratings all the way around!
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Cracks only made $9,467 in six theaters for a PTA of $1,578. Bad news for anyone who picked it.
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