SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/18/11

[Shrykespeare]

So, despite its many detractors, Battle: Los Angeles proved up to the challenge, dominating the box office this past weekend with a very respectable $36 million, squashing Rango in that film’s second weekend. Red Riding Hood finished third despite a rather limp opening, and Mars Needs Moms became the latest animated motion-capture film to fall flat on its ass. In the PTA race, kudos go to Jane Eyre, Kill the Irishman and Certified Copy, which finished at first, second and third, respectively.

The movies coming out this Friday are a mixed bag, to be sure; we have a screwball comedy, a stirring courtroom drama and an action/thriller. None of them are getting exceptionally large release platforms, but they have all been at least decently advertised. Still, two of them are rated R, and more often than not, that tends to hurt a film’s box office chances. The only one of the three that earned a PG-13 rating was Limitless, the latest outing from Relativity Media and director Neil Burger, who scored a critical hit with The Illusionist (the one with Edward Norton) five years ago.

Limitless stars Bradley Cooper as Eddie Morra, a down-and-out writer who has just been dumped by his GF Lindy (Abbie Cornish, who also stars in Sucker Punch, due out next week) and believes he has no future. However, when one of his friends introduces him to an experimental drug called NZT, his life takes a rapid upswing. You see, NZT vast enhances one’s ability to focus, as well as memory, reason and most other higher brain functions. Before long, Eddie makes a killing in the financial world, which brings him under the scrutiny of business mogul Carl Van Loon (Robert DeNiro), who wants to use Eddie’s newfound abilities for his own gain. But that’s not all, as Eddie is soon pursued by many more nefarious parties; scrambling for his life, he begins to realize that NZT has some nasty side-effects as well.

Based on the novel The Dark Fields (the original title for the film) by Alan Glynn, Limitless will be debuting in about 2,500 theaters this Friday. Cooper has been riding on his popularity following the success of The Hangover (the sequel for which will be out in May), but is it enough to make this a hit? BoxOffice.com thinks that Limitless will garner a $17 million OW on its way to over $50 million. I think it has an outside chance at hitting those numbers, but that may be pushing it. For $11 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office), you’re looking at perhaps six Top 5 and maybe two or three PTA. I would give this film a marginal thumbs-down for game purposes.

Up next is The Lincoln Lawyer, which also was adapted from a best-selling novel, this one by author Michael Connelly. It stars Matthew McConaughey as Mickey Haller, a hotshot L.A. defense attorney who, rather than spend money on posh office spaces, prefers to operate out of his swanky Lincoln town car.

After making his living defending run-of-the-mill baddies, the case of his career lands in his lap, defending a Beverly Hills playboy (Ryan Phillippe) who is accused of rape and murder. At first excited for the chance to elevate his status, Mickey becomes embroiled in a case that could spell danger for himself and his family. Marisa Tomei, William H. Macy, John Leguizamo, Michael Pena and Bob Gunton co-star.

The Lincoln Lawyer costs exactly the same as Limitless ($11 Ultimate, $12 Box Office) and will be shown on roughly the same number of screens (2,500). And while it’s good to see McConaughey in a serious, shirt-wearing role, especially a courtroom drama (his first since A Time to Kill), I don’t think a release date in a very crowded March will do it any favors. I will predict only one Top 5 point and an OW of $11 million on its way to $34 million. Very not worth it.

It’s usually a good thing when British actors Simon Pegg and Nick Frost team up. Their previous collaborations under director Edgar Wright, Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz, earned them a following in the U.S. even though those movies only met with mild financial success. However, their third major film together will be under an American director and will be set on American soil, so Paul might have a chance at succeeding to an even greater degree.

Greg Mottola (who helmed the smash hit Superbad) is behind the camera for Paul, a sci-fi comedy featuring Pegg and Frost as Graeme and Clive, two British comic-book nerds who are in the U.S. to attend a Comic-Con and visit various sites famous for extra-terrestrial activity. During their sojourns, they happen to cross paths with an actual alien – like, the big-eyed, bulbous-headed kind of alien that has been the template for E.T. sightings – who is on the run and needs their help. He introduces himself as Paul (voiced by Seth Rogen), and together, the three of them have what is sure to be a non-stop series of wacky misadventures. Jason Bateman, Kristen Wiig, Bill Hader, Sigourney Weaver (awesome!), Jane Lynch (awesomer!) and Blythe Danner co-star.

Rated R for “language including sexual references, and some drug use”, Paul will be debuting in over 2,700 theaters this Friday. I think, given its premise and its cast, it has a strong chance to succeed. I will predict a $15 million opening, along with four Top 5 points, two PTA, a very decent Rating (currently at 7.5 with over 2,000 votes) and $51 million. It’s cheaper than the previous two films ($8 Ultimate, $11 Box Office), so it’s probably the worthiest pick among the wide-release films this weekend.

And now, a bit about this weekend’s four limited-release films.

Win Win ($5 Ult) – An apt title for a possible PTA champ. Directed by Tom McCarthy (The Visitor), starring Paul Giamatti (Barney’s Version), and debuting in five locations this Friday, this has all the makings of a multiple-week point-getter. Giamatti plays struggling attorney Mike Flaherty, who moonlights as the coach of a high-school wrestling team, who are struggling even more. However, when an athletic prodigy named Kyle (Alex Shaffer) drops into his lap, Mike decides to help the kid succeed where he failed. However, just on the cusp of turning things around, the boy’s drug-addict mother (Melanie Lynskey) shows up threatening to derail the situation. Amy Ryan, Burt Young and Jeffrey Tambor co-star.

Even on a weekend as crowded as this, it’s often easy to pick out the good ones. This is just such a case. It’s very well-reviewed (9/10 positive at RT) and was a Sundance favorite, and in addition to a very high User Rating (currently 7.9 with 162 votes), you are pretty much guaranteed at least a few PTA points. Maybe not as many as Barney’s Version, but even so, I would grab Win Win with both hands.

Desert Flower ($4 Ult) – This is a biopic about Waris Dirie, a Somalian nomad who was circumcised at the age of three, sold into marriage at the age of 13, and eventually fled Africa to the United States. There, she achieved fame as a supermodel, and is now a United Nations spokeswoman against female circumcision. Ethiopian actress Liya Kebede plays Dirie, and the movie also stars Sally Hawkins (Jane Eyre), Anthony Mackie and Timothy Spall.

Set to debut in five theaters this Friday, Desert Flower has a current Rating of 7.0 (with nearly 1,500 votes), which is good, but early reviews have not been that promising (only 2/5 positive at RT). I think that for $4, you’re much better off going for Win Win at only $1 more.

Winter in Wartime ($3 Ult) – Based on the novel by Dutch writer Jan Terlouw, Winter in Wartime is a 2008 film from the Netherlands (with dialogue in Dutch, German, Belgian and English) that has finally made its way across the pond. It tells the tale of Michiel (Martijn Lakemeier), a teenage boy who becomes involved with the Dutch Resistance during the last winter of World War II. Told as a coming-of-age tale, Michiel, after coming to the aid of a wounded British soldier, must learn the difference between fantasy and adventure and the stark realities and horrors of war.

Set to open in an unknown number of locations in New York and Los Angeles, Winter in Wartime has a very respectable Rating of 7.1 with over 2,500 votes, and has also gotten quite favorable reviews (6/8 positive at RT). I’m not certain that this film will make as big a splash as, say, Jane Eyre, but it could easily pull in a few PTA points. It’s certainly a bigger gamble than Win Win.

Cracks ($3 Ult) – The outing from IFC is a drama starring Eva Green (Casino Royale), Juno Temple (Greenberg), Imogen Poots (Jane Eyre), and Maria Valverde. It is the full-feature debut of Jordan Scott, who is the niece of Tony Scott (who is an executive producer along with the other Scott, Ridley), and was a selection at the Toronto and London Film Festivals. It is set to debut on six screens this Friday.

Taking place at an elite girls’ English boarding school in the 1930’s, the main character is Miss G (Green), the school’s charismatic swimming/diving instructor who holds all of her students in her thrall with her independent and fearless personality. When a Spanish girl named Fiamma (Valverde) arrives and becomes the focus of Miss G’s attentions, making the other girls very jealous, especially Di (Temple). What happens after looks to be a very disturbing story of adolescent and adult attractions, and the dire consequences that follow.

While I admire Scott for tackling what many view as a touchy subject in her first full-scale effort, nothing about Cracks screams “pick me!” in my opinion. Its current Rating is decent but not spectacular (6.7 with over 2,000 votes), and the reviews have been less than encouraging (8/22 positive at RT). If I were you, I’d let this title slip through the… ah, you know.


My predictions for the weekend of March 18-20, 2011:

1. Battle: Los Angeles - $19 million
2. Limitless - $17 million
3. Paul - $16 million
4. Rango - $14 million
5. The Lincoln Lawyer - $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out March and Round One of the Super Leagues with four films, including: Sucker Punch, the latest CGI-heavy action/adventure story from Zack Snyder; Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2: Rodrick Rules, the second chapter based on the popular series of kids’ books; as well as limited-release features Miral and the just-added Potiche.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Chuck Woolery (game show host) (70 on 3/16)
Kurt Russell (Death Proof) (60 on 3/17)
Hal Linden (TV’s Barney Miller) (80 on 3/20)


Later!

[Buscemi]

RS has:

Paul: low double digits
The Lincoln Lawyer: lower double digits (a few less than Paul)
Limitless: high single digits

As for the weekend, I'll predict:

1. Rango $14 million
2. Battle: Los Angeles $13.5 million (it's Cloverfield all over again)
3. Paul $12 million
4. The Lincoln Lawyer $11 million
5. Limitless $10 million
-- Red Riding Hood $6 million
-- Mars Needs Moms $3.5 million

[transformers2]

I don't expect Battle: LA to fall that hard. It's getting a pretty solid word of mouth. I think it will the weekend.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Paul will flop so hard, it'll be ridiculous. Simong Pegg has NEVER opened a film very well, and the sci-fi/comedy thing usually doesn't work. It doesn't help that the trailers and commercials are not funny in the slightest.

Limitless should do the best out of the 3 new movies, but none of them will do exceptionally well.

As much as I didn't like Battle: LA, it is being advertised well and should drop around 50% but still be close to #1.

[Buscemi]

Cloverfield had a far better reception (everyone acted as if it was the best thing ever when it opened) and still dropped hard (not even managing a multiplier of 2). Battle: Los Angeles is a similar one-quadrant film. The final gross should be around $80-90 million.

[transformers2]

Cloverfield had a pretty mixed reception If I remember correctly. On the topic of this weekends openings, I think Limitless will open the highest. I think The Lincoln Lawyer should do alright and Paul will tank(Banks hit the nail on the head Sc-Fi comedy+Simon Pegg=Box Office Failure).

[Buscemi]

Simon Pegg's last three movies hit $100 million. Most of his lead roles have been distributed by indie sub labels (and How To Lose Friends and Alienate People failed more because of Megan Fox than Simon Pegg, as most of the US marketing was focused around her).

[transformers2]

Yeah you do realize Simon Pegg had nothing to do with Star Trek,Ice Age or Narnia hitting 100 mill. His leading roles have done pretty much nothing in the US.

[Buscemi]

But they weren't major studio films (one was released by a company that had already folded before release) and his last lead role was promoted more for Megan Fox. He was a good enough bonus in those three $100 million films (and the best part of at least two of them) that more people are aware of him now (also his star-making role in Spaced wasn't released in the US until after Star Trek opened, a full ten years after its UK premiere).

To call him box office poison is a little unfair since none of those films hit 2,000 theatres. If he flops in a movie that opens in 2,500-3,000 theatres, then we can talk.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

No, he's box office poison. Any actor who gets FOUR films where he's the lead in wide release, and every single one opens to less than 7M is box office poison. True, he hasn't headlined a film that opened in over 2,000 theaters, but that's more so because many theaters know his movies will flop and nobody has faith in him.

Hell, you always say Michael Cera is box office poison, but at least he's had a few hits in Superbad, Juno, Nick & Norah, and Year One. Even Scott Pilgrim made more than any Simon Pegg film.

[Buscemi]

Year One was an enormous flop. Jack Black and him should not translate to only $43 million and it was clear proof that audiences are tiring of Cera (and Black as well). Nick and Norah was going to break profit no matter what (it cost just $10 million) and Superbad (which oddly enough has the same director as Paul) and Juno weren't sold on him (the former was sold on Apatow and Rogen, the latter was sold on Ellen Page and critical acclaim).

Cera headlined Youth In Revolt, Paper Heart and Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. All were flops (especially Scott Pilgrim, which bombed pretty much everywhere).

[numbersix]

A pretty weak weekend is coming up. I don't expect any of the three films to do much at the box office. Paul will be a disaster (very poor UK reviews means it's alreayd an uphill struggle). I don't think Lincoln Lawyer will get anywhere. I'm not convinced McConaughey has any appeal beyond rom-coms. I think Battle LA will drop hard. I don't think word of mouth has been particularly positive and films like this do tend to have a huge 2nd week drop

1. Battle: Los Angeles - $17 million
2. Limitless - $14 million
3. Rango - $14 million
4. The Lincoln Lawyer - $9 million
5. Paul - $8 million

As for PTA, Win Win will be a big win win, Cracks hasn't a hope and Winter in Wartime and Desert Flower will be battling against Jane Eyre and Kill the Irishman from last weekend, so 2 points is the best they can do.

[undeadmonkey]

Limitless has the most appeal of any film coming out this weekend, and to me it doesn't look much better than a $1 redbox rental.

[Buscemi]

In a weird inversion, my mother wants to see all three new movies opening this week.

[Buscemi]

MTC projections:

Limitless $15 million
Paul $15 million
The Lincoln Lawyer $13 million