SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

As anticipated, Rango had the highest OW of the year so far, pulling in $38 million in its first three days. Johnny Depp’s latest, which has also gotten quite impressive critical reviews, will likely be in the Top 5 for several weeks to come. The Adjustment Bureau also opened over $20 million, which is more than I thought it would. And finally, kudos to Happythankyoumoreplease for winning the PTA crown.

There are eight, count ‘em, eight movies debuting this Friday, so I’ll waste no more time with pleasantries. Of the three films debuting in wide release, the one with the most hype and the largest amount of potential is Battle: Los Angeles, the latest film from Columbia Pictures. It is being directed by Jonathan Liebesman, whose only two notable titles (Darkness Falls and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning) involved a considerably lower budget than this, whose estimated costs have topped $100 million. But then, a huge budget did wonders for Guy Ritchie two winters ago, didn’t it?

Movies about alien invasions have been prevalent for decades. Some of the more recent success stories in that genre have been Independence Day, War of the Worlds and District 9 (yeah, I know District 9 didn’t involve an invasion of Earth per se, but I’ll group it in because the aliens themselves, the spacecraft and the special effects are similar to that of Battle: LA.) One can only hope that this latest invasion will play out in a much more interesting and lucrative fashion than last winter’s horrible Skyline.

Liebesman wanted Battle: LA shot in the style of a war film, almost documentary-like (like Black Hawk Down) to make it more stylized, gritty and realistic. However, they intentionally made the film with few enough gory images to merit a PG-13 rating, which was probably a smart idea. Shot on location in Louisiana (not California), Battle: LA centers on just one front of a full-scale global invasion, and stars Aaron Eckhart (The Dark Knight), Michelle Rodriguez (Avatar) and Bridget Moynahan (I, Robot). (Side-note for gamers: an Xbox game version of this film is expected to be released very soon as well, so look out for that.)

Battle: LA has been advertised very well, and will be debuting in 3,300 theaters this Friday. It will run you $18 in Ultimate leagues ($19 in Box Office), and I think it will perform quite well for that price tag. I think that the debut of Mars Needs Moms will pull just enough of Rango’s audience away for Battle: LA to cop the #1 position. It also has a chance to hold on to that top spot next week, since I don’t believe any of next week’s big films will be huge breakout hits. In all, I predict twelve Top 5 points, three PTA, a very good Rating and $87 million in total receipts ($30 million OW). If you didn’t take Rango and aren’t sure about the May movies just yet, I would take Battle: Los Angeles.

Up next is Mars Needs Moms, a 3D escapade from Disney based on the book by Berkeley Breathed (who also penned the comic strip Bloom County). It is the first directorial project for Simon Wells since 2002’s The Time Machine, and his first animated film since 1998’s The Prince of Egypt. It is also the latest animated film to employ the motion-capture process used in such films as Beowulf, The Polar Express and the recent Christmas Carol movie.

The plot: the planet Mars, having scores of alien-looking young with no one to care for them, has decided that abducting mothers from Earth is the best solution. In the process of taking the mother (Joan Cusack) of a nine-year-old boy named Milo (Seth Green), things go pear-shaped when Milo decides to stow away on the abducting spaceship. After reaching Mars, Milo must team up with a tech-savvy, underground Earthling named Gribble (Dan Fogler) and a rebellious Martian girl named Ki (Elisabeth Harnois), they must find a way to foil the plans of the Martian leader known as “The Supervisor” (Mindy Sterling) and get Milo’s mom back where she belongs.

Obviously, this film is aimed at small children, based on the pure silliness of the premise and the trailer. However, it has the disadvantage of going against Rango, which is better-advertised, better-looking and also in 3D. I believe that MNM will just slightly lose the battle with Rango’s second weekend, debuting with $20 million on its way to $62 million, six Top 5 points and a rating in the 6’s. If Gnomeo and Juliet is any indication, Mars Needs Moms could hold well for a few weeks (depending on the reception of Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2), and given that there won’t be another animated kids film coming out until late April, it could be worth the $16 price tag in Ultimate ($15 in Box Office). But I’d still use caution before picking it.

We all grew up listening to the fairy tale Little Red Riding Hood (or, I assume, most of us did). It has been readapted in many forms (Bugs Bunny cartoons and Hoodwinked!, to name a couple), but never as a full-scale horror film. When the trailer includes the line “from the director of Twilight”, you can bet on two things: lots of pretty young people in the cast, and fans of same in the audience. When you put together Catherine Hardwicke with producer Leonardo DiCaprio (yeah, I'm as surprised as you), you just might have a formula that works a lot better than it would with a smaller budget and no-name actors.

Warner Bros. version of Red Riding Hood takes place in the medieval village of Daggerhorn, where a young woman named Valerie (Amanda Seyfried) plans to elope with her lover Peter (Shiloh Fernandez) to avoid her arranged marriage to Henry (Max Irons, Jeremy’s son), a marriage that would nullify the debts that Valerie’s parents owe to Henry’s. However, when Valerie’s older sister is found slaughtered by a mysterious werewolf that has been terrorizing the village for years, a ruthless priest (Gary Oldman) is summoned to deal with the problem, and he warns that the werewolf could be any one of the villagers. Billy Burke, Julie Christie, Lukas Haas and Michael Shanks co-star.

I may be low-balling Red Riding Hood’s chances, but I think that, like all of the Twilight films, it will have a decent OW and then burn out rapidly after that. The thing is, RRH hasn’t been advertised anywhere near on the level of Twilight, so I’m not convinced that the turnout will be any better than any other horror flick with pretty young people in it. I’ll predict $18 million on its OW ($43 million overall), two Top 5 points, maybe a couple PTA and a middling Rating. Hardwicke’s name may carry some weight, but I think that, against all this fierce competition, it’s just a mirage as far as game purposes go.

And now, a little bit about each of this weekend’s five limited-release films:

Jane Eyre ($6 Ult, $5 BO) – Yes, it’s another Hollywood adaptation of Charlotte Bronte’s 1847 novel that many of you had to slog through in English Lit class. The titular character is played by rising young star Mia Wasakowska (Alice in Wonderland, The Kids are All Right), although the story begins with Jane a young orphaned girl growing up with a loveless childhood, and upon reaching adulthood becoming governess of a young French girl at Thornfield Hall, under the employ of the Byronic Edward Rochester (Inglourious Basterds’ Michael Fassbender), with whom she falls in love. Jamie Bell, Sally Hawkins, Imogen Poots and Dame Judi Dench co-stars, and the director is Cary Fukunaga (who also directed 2009’s critically-acclaimed Sin Nombre).

Unlike most limited-release films, this film appears to have NOT been screened at any previous festivals or locations: as a result, Jane Eyre does not have a User Rating at the moment, and only three critics have turned in a review at RT (though they are all positive, so there’s that). For $6, you would be taking a real gamble, but English period pieces like this are often great sources of PTA, and, as it’s only opening in four theaters, it could easily be for you. I’d leave it alone in Box Office, however.

Kill the Irishman ($3 Ult, $3 BO) – This is the second theatrical project for director Jonathan Hensleigh (2004’s The Punisher), and is based on the true story of Danny Greene (Ray Stevenson, who ironically was in the Punisher sequel), a “tough Irish thug working for mobsters in Cleveland during the 70’s.” Of course, mobsters don’t like it when someone they groom decides to go into business for himself, and they like it even less when that guy turns into an FBI informant, so it becomes an all-out war with Danny’s head as the prize. An all-star supporting cast includes Christopher Walken, Val Kilmer, Vincent D’Onofrio, Paul Sorvino, Vinnie Jones, Tony Lo Bianco and Bob Gunton.

This one is hard to read. Five theaters are a solid enough number for PTA, but again, there is no User Rating to go by, and barely any reviews in the can at RT (one positive, one negative). I would have a hard time recommending Kill the Irishmanover Jane Eyre, even for half the price.

Certified Copy ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This one has a truly international pedigree: it is a British film, from an Iranian director (Abbas Kiarostami), stars acclaimed French actress Juliette Binoche and takes place in the Tuscany region of Italy. Binoche plays Elle, a French antiques dealer who spends a day with the author of a new book on the value of copies in art (played by English opera singer William Shimell, making his screen debut). From what I’ve read, it is unclear as the movie progresses as to whether the duo have just met or whether they have been in a relationship for years. Beyond that, there’s not much I can tell you as far as the plot goes.

I can tell you that Binoche won the Best Actress award at Cannes last year for this role, and 29/34 reviewers at RT have given Certified Copy a thumbs-up. It has a very respectable 7.1 Rating with nearly 2,000 votes at IMDb, and when you combine that with a five-theater debut, you have what is probably the best bet for PTA among all the limited-release features this week. It may not have the allure on paper that a classic story like Jane Eyre does, but for only $3, Certified Copy may be one that you can afford to gamble on.

Making the Boys ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This film was originally supposed to open the first weekend of November when it was summarily bumped to this date at the last moment. I’ll just cut-and-paste what I said the first time about this film, since my opinion about it really hasn’t changed:

This is a documentary from director Crayton Robey that celebrates the 40th anniversary of the Gay Rights movement by chronicling the creation, release, subsequent reaction to and undeniable influence of The Boys in the Band, Mart Crowley’s stage play that became, in turn, the first ever homosexual play (and then movie) to reach a mainstream audience. Though hardliners on both sides of the issue criticized the play for reinforcing gay stereotypes in a time when homosexuals were still social pariahs, it is largely viewed today as a watershed event in the social history of the U.S.

The film includes interviews with many notable figures; besides the original cast and crew of the play, there is also footage of interviews with writers and playwrights such as Edward Albee, Dominick Dunne, Tony Kushner, Terrence McNally and Dan Savage. It was showcased at such film festivals as Berlin and Tribeca, though only two reviews have been turned in to RT (both positive). It will be debuting this Friday at the Quad Cinema in New York, with several other selected locations showcasing it in the coming weeks. One-theater releases can often bring PTA, I think there’s just too much going on this week. I don’t foresee more than two PTA points for Making the Boys, if that, and its current Rating (7.8 but with only 35 votes) may not stay that high.

Black Death ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – This is a “historical horror” film from director Christopher Smith (Severance) that stars Sean Bean, Eddie Redmayne and Carice van Houten. Taking place in 1348 bubonic-plague-ridden England, a young monk named Osmund (Redmayne) who has fallen in love with a young girl who took sanctuary in his monastery but had to send her away to avoid the sickness, is tasked with leading a band a warriors, led by the knight Ulric (Bean), to a marshland village (near to where Osmund’s betrothed awaits) that has reportedly been completely spared of the ravages of the pestilence that has engulfed the land. Though all appears quite and serene upon arrival, it soon becomes clear that there are devilish forces at work.

Before you dismiss this film based on its premise and its Rating (6.6 with nearly 7,000 votes), note that it has gotten surprisingly stellar reviews (21/26) at RT, and the trailer has honestly gotten me interested in seeing it. Priced at the bargain-basement value of $2, Black Death is one of those long-shots that could jump up and surprise with some valuable PTA. With only two screens showing it, it is at least worth consideration.


My predictions for the weekend of March 4-6, 2011:

1. Battle: Los Angeles - $30 million
2. Rango - $24 million
3. Mars Needs Moms - $20 million
4. Red Riding Hood - $18 million
5. The Adjustment Bureau - $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, seven more films jump to the forefront, including: The Lincoln Lawyer, a courtroom drama starring Matthew McConaughey; Paul, a comedy with Simon Pegg and Nick Frost and Seth Rogen as the voice of a bulbous-headed alien; Limitless, a drama with Bradley Cooper and Robert DeNiro; as well as limited-release films Win Win, Desert Flower, Winter in Wartime and Cracks.


Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week (everyone’s turning 40!):

Peter Sarsgaard (An Education, Knight & Day) (40 on 3/7)
Emmanuel Lewis (TV’s Webster) (40 on 3/9)
Jon Hamm (The Town, Mad Men) (40 on 3/10)
Corey Haim (The Lost Boys) (40 on 3/10)
Johnny Knoxville (the Jackass movies) (40 on 3/11)


Later!








Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

Current Tracking:

Battle: Los Angeles $37 million (Boxoffice), mid 20's (RS)
Mars Needs Moms: $18 million (Boxoffice), mid teens (RS)
Red Riding Hood: $20 million (Boxoffice), low 30's (RS)

My Weekend Predictions:

1. Rango $30 million (outside of the C+ Cinemascore, which was only because most of the Friday crowd happened to be adults, it should hold well)
2. Battle: Los Angeles $27 million (Friday should be good but it will drop quickly once people realize it's the exact same film as Skyline)
3. Red Riding Hood $23 million
4. Mars Needs Moms $15 million
5. The Adjustment Bureau $9 million (the film's ending is getting a very mixed reception)
-- Hall Pass $4.5 million
-- Beastly $4 million
-- Take Me Home Tonight $1.5 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Buscemi wrote:2. Battle: Los Angeles $27 million (Friday should be good but it will drop quickly once people realize it's the exact same film as Skyline)
Huh? Barely anyone SAW Skyline!

And unless the aliens in B:LA are on earth specifically to suck our brains out in order to create one giant mega-brain, it's NOT the exact same film.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

Battle LA looks nothing like Skyline, skyline was almost totally in an apartment and all they were doing was arguing about whether they should stay or leave. This looks like at least something is happening
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

But the plot of Skyline was ripped from Battle: Los Angeles and rushed into production to beat it into theatres. Remember that debate?

And though Skyline was a flop in the US (grossing only $21 million), it did make enough internationally to get a sequel greenlighted (most likely a straight-to-DVD affair with the same budget as the first). And with all the people that panned Skyline, Battle: Los Angeles has to be several magnitudes better than that film to not suffer the same effect as that film. Honestly, I can't see it due to the jingoistic themes, the obviously inspired by Transformers factor (while made by people who saw District 9 and obviously missed the point) and the director's awful track record. The script was also panned by script reviewers.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Yeah, I do remember that debate. I've even heard that Skyline directors The Strause brothers may face litigation because of it.

And what "point" about District 9 are you referring to?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

That it was a film with an anti-prejudice message. The filmmakers of this probably saw that it had some good moments of violence (many of the people that saw the film didn't come away enlightened or having learned a message against racism but instead liked the film for having good action scenes and body horror) and then decided to ramp up the violence and add blatant Americanism and pro-military elements for their film. Also notice that while District 9 was a pickup distributed by TriStar, this is a studio production by Columbia with over three times the budget.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Chienfantome »

Man I've seen Skyline, and I've seen the trailer for Battle LA, and it looks like it wil be two very different films, only tackling the same genre and theme. But they look nothing like the same. It seems Battle has everything Skyline lacked : action. Like Monkey said, all Skyline had was a bunch of annoying characters asking themselves whether they should leave the appartment. Battle has Eckhart and a huge battle in LA. I'm sure it will be lightyears better than Skyline. And I'm sure it got the audience lightyears much more curious than for Skyline.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Geezer »

I don't think I've ever even HEARD of Skyline. Can't freaking wait for Battle: LA.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by numbersix »

Latest tracking has more sensible figures for all


1. Battle: Los Angeles $30 million (regardless of Skyline, this is an obvious tentpole that will open well)
2. Rango $22 million (Mars will take some of its audience)
3. Red Riding Hood $17 million (a bit niche and the high tracking never made sense to me)
4. Mars Needs Moms $14 million (tracking low but so did Gnomeo)
5. The Adjustment Bureau $10 million

As for PTa, Jane Eyre is guaranteed PTA points (probably full points), as is Battle LA and possibly Red Riding Hood. I could see Certified Copy getting a point or two, and not sure about Making the Boys and Kill the Irishman.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by silversurfer19 »

I think it's hard to compare Mars with Gnomeo, as the latter was released at a time barren of animated kids movies, and so opened strongly and held well. Mars, on the other hand, is opening opposite a still strong Rango which has had some great reviews and so will hold well against it. Also, is Rango in 3D in the US? It isn't over here, and if that is the case then surely many of Mars' screening would be in 3D and so not affect Rango's performance? Anyway, I think Rango will hold very well, possibly $26m, while Mars will struggle to hit $15m.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Rango IS available in 3D in the US. It's appeal is that it has a simplistic enough plot so that young kids can follow it, enough action and adult-ish humor to appeal to teens, and enough weirdness and references to classic films to satisfy adults. Mars Needs Moms, on the other hand, seems geared towards preteens and that's it. And I have yet to see a motion-capture film that was actually worth the price of admission (I'm hoping like hell that Tintin breaks this trend).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

I'm pretty sure Rango is 2-D only in the US, as I remember Paramount canceled the 3-D run. Also, family films usually perform better in 2-D than 3-D.

As for Mars Needs Moms, animated sci-fi doesn't do well (unless it's Pixar or DreamWorks doing it) so I don't see this doing any better. My mother (who usually doesn't like sci-fi) wants to see it though.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

More tracking:

Battle: Los Angeles $28 million
Red Riding Hood $18 million
Mars Needs Moms $10 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/11/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Shrykespeare wrote:Rango IS available in 3D in the US. It's appeal is that it has a simplistic enough plot so that young kids can follow it, enough action and adult-ish humor to appeal to teens, and enough weirdness and references to classic films to satisfy adults. Mars Needs Moms, on the other hand, seems geared towards preteens and that's it. And I have yet to see a motion-capture film that was actually worth the price of admission (I'm hoping like hell that Tintin breaks this trend).
Rango is not in 3D.

As for The Jar Jar Binks Movie, it looks goddamn terrible, and I only hope it does well to help my chances in the Full Year League. Otherwise, I'd hope it flops.
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