SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/13

[Shrykespeare]

Seven weeks to go. Only seven short weeks to go before the year is over. Where did the time go? It’s been a year to remember, to be sure… When this year started, we were still reeling over the sudden demise of Fantasy Moguls, and it is only through the foresight and ability of BarcaRulz that we were able to have a place to call home while other steps were being taken to rebuild somewhere else. And now, thanks to the efforts of numerous outstanding individuals both at home and abroad, we are on the doorstep of a fantastic new age for the Fantaverse, an age that will feature a new name, a new game, a new purpose, a new sense of solidarity, and (knock on wood), a slow, steady expansion as we finally let the world know just how effing awesome this place is. (Yeah! Validation! Woo-hoo!) But I digress…

The winter season got into full swing this past weekend, with four new titles debuting in the Top 6. The weekend of November 13th features only two new major releases, and they are a curious pair. One is overly large (I count that as being 1 ½) and one is almost ridiculously small (that’s the other ½), but both look to be interesting films, albeit for very different reasons.

I just this morning read The Movie Fanatic’s list of the “10 Most Fascinating ‘End of the World’ Movies”, and it’s an interesting group, to be sure. Most of them have the world ending by means of viruses, by our own hand, by aliens or by other ephemeral means. Only one of those movies (The Day After Tomorrow) was directed by Roland Emmerich, who will be causing the destruction of modern human society for the third time with 2012, which will bow in 3,000-plus theaters this Friday.

http://themovie-fanatic.com/index.php/l ... rld-movies

In 2012, however, the near-total destruction of earth, and humanity, seems more certain than in his earlier attempts to extinguish mankind, in the passable Day After Tomorrow and the terrific actioner Independence Day. Doomsday is at hand, according to a prophecy foretold millennia ago by the ancient Mayan culture. According to their predictions, the world’s stopwatch will run out on 12/21/2012, the day of the winter solstice. (Damn…three years left… so much for paying off my mortgage…)

The film centers on divorced dad Jackson Curtis (John Cusack), who barely survives a rock shower while taking his kids to Yellowstone (this was in the trailer). He learns about the mass suicides in the Mayan jungles of Guatemala, and that California’s fault lines are beginning to show vast cracks. It would also seem that a secret government agency called the Institute for Human Continuity has been preparing for said disasters, and have been constructing humongous arks beneath the Himalayas in order to try to preserve a small percentage of the human race.

This being a Roland Emmerich film, you can guess how the rest of the movie plays out: destruction, destruction, destruction. Our hero, along with his kids and ex-wife (Amanda Peet) must try to make their way to China in order to survive the coming cataclysm. There is, of course, going to be some heavy-handed moral discussion as well, as government officials and men of the cloth huggermugger to decide who should survive and who should fend for themselves. Oliver Platt, Woody Harrelson, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Thandie Newton and Danny Glover (as the President!) co-star.

Sigh. I’m not one to poo-poo a good disaster movie, hell, wanton destruction can often be incredibly entertaining. But when you mix it together with ham-fisted soapbox morality, it usually just gives me an empty feeling in my stomach, as it usually involves people with power exercising it over the people who don’t, for their own gains. I very much enjoyed Independence Day, Armageddon and even The Core. But watching the world either end or almost end a dozen times over these many years, it just doesn’t hold the same allure, and now that technology can give the experience that extra dose of realism, I find it more disturbing than entertaining. (And besides, I already watched the world blow up once this year, in Knowing. Once is enough.)

One would think that such an enormously-budgeted film as 2012, given its pedigree, cast and release date, would be an absolute surefire hit. Independence Day made $306 million, but that had far more entertainment value due to its “us vs. aliens” storyline. I Am Legend made $256 million due mostly to the star power of Will Smith. Twister and Armageddon also broke $200 million, and The Day After Tomorrow just missed ($186 million). But there is something, I’m not sure what, that tells me that this movie will fall short of expectations.

Yes, the film has gotten decent early reviews (80%/5 reviews on RT), and given its $200 million budget, you be assured of one pulse-pounding action story. But considering the economy, and the rather grim situations many Americans are currently finding themselves in, I’m not sure watching our beloved planet bite the big one is something they’re really clamoring to see. And not only that, the running time for 2012 is a whopping 158 minutes (2:38), which means fewer overall showings than other recent releases.

2012 will run you $29 in Ultimate Leagues, and $32 in Box Office, and that’s a pretty hefty sum. It will certainly win its OW given A Christmas Carol's somewhat soft opening, and given its advertising campaign, I would expect huge numbers in its first three days, perhaps around $55 million. However, with Twilight: New Moon and Old Dogs, both potential blockbusters, coming in the next two weeks, I don’t expect 2012’s successive weeks to be all that stellar. Plus, Christmas Carol will probably incur smaller drops, due to its “Christmas” theme, as we approach the holiday season, so there’s that. For nearly 30% of your budget, you’ll wind up with 12-14 Top 5 points, a few PTA, and a User Rating in the mid-6’s. I seriously doubt it will earn more than $140 million, which makes 2012 a miss in my book.

The only other film being given a “wide” release is Pirate Radio, and, when you think about it, it may not even be that, given that “wide” means 1,000 screens or more, and BOM currently has this film debuting on only 900 screens. This film, which has been kicked down the road a couple of times and even undergone a name change (it is called The Boat That Rocked everywhere but in North America), and honestly, it does look very entertaining, but as its prospects go, it will probably sink like a stone.

Focus Features, if you’re unfamiliar, has a history of releasing very good “little” films, films that are often well-received but never really bring in bucket-loads of cash. In the last year, they’ve distributed Love Happens, A Serious Man, Away We Go, The Limits of Control and Sin Nombre. Their biggest success stories were their animated fare, 9 ($31 million) and Coraline ($76 million). Pirate Radio will bring in nowhere near those numbers.

Directed by Richard Curtis (Love Actually), Pirate Radio is a period comedy about a group of unconventional, ramshackle deejays who decide, when their beloved rock-and-roll music is banned by British censors in the 1960’s, to broadcast from a small boat on the high seas. The group is led by an American called “The Count” (Philip Seymour Hoffman), and also includes Gavin (Rhys Ifans), Dr. Dave (Nick Frost), lesbian cook Felicity (Katherine Parkinson), and their boss (Bill Nighy). Aboard the good ship “Radio Rock”, these pioneers at anti-establishmentarianism (I’ve always wanted to use that word in a column!) invade the airwaves and party hardy, incurring the wrath of a rather stodgy government minister (Kenneth Branagh).

Look, between you and me, this movie looks awesome. I love “based on true events” stories (which this is), I love rock-and-roll stories, and I love just about anything with P.S. Hoffman in it. This film is definitely going on my “must see” list. I’m hoping it will have the same humorous qualities that Good Morning, Vietnam and Talk to Me had, set against a backdrop of mid-60’s British rock, which includes some of the best music ever created: The Who, The Stones, The Kinks, Cream, and of course, The Fab Four.

But you already know what I’m going to say regarding this film as a pick. It’s bad. At least, in Ultimate, where it is priced at $7. Given its release platform, only its serious lack of competition would give it any chance to crack the Top 5 at all; it won’t beat Christmas Carol or 2012, and it would take an OW of around $8-10 million to perhaps scooch past the second weeks of The Fourth Kind or The Men Who Stare at Goats. For $7, you can do better – Ninja Assassin and Daybreakers have much better shots at multiple Top 5 points. In Box Office, it’s only $4, which might be worth thinking about, given that most titles under $5 won’t make anything at all for you, so if $4 is all you have left to spend, it might be worth going for it, unless you think the prospects of Case 39 and The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus are better.

(Final note: I find it curious that there is only ONE review for Pirate Radio on RT, when there are over 12,000 votes for it on IMDb. I know it was released in England seven months ago, but still…)

For my final film of the day, I want to say a few words about The Fantastic Mr. Fox. (I know, surfer, I’m stepping on your toes here, but I promise, no in-depth analysis, just my two cents. Call it an “overlap” if it makes you feel better.) I’m not sure just how wide this film will be going – I’ve heard rumors that it will expand everywhere over Thanksgiving, and I hope that’s true.

As a child, I adored the literary works of Roald Dahl. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, James and the Giant Peach, Danny the Champion of the World, I loved them all. But I think my favorite, the one I read the most, was The Fantastic Mr. Fox. It was story of a sly-but-whimsical fox, who creates an entire network of tunnels to burrow into the coops and storehouses of three truly horrible farmers, so that he can steal birds and other food supplies for his family and his entire community of animals (badgers, rabbits, weasels, etc.). I must have read it hundred times.

When I heard there was going to be a film version of this story, I was enthused. When I heard it was going to star George Clooney and Meryl Streep, I was enthralled. When I heard it was going to be directed by Wes Anderson (Rushmore, The Darjeeling Ltd.), I was… a little skeptical. I mean, I have nothing but respect for Mr. Anderson, but I couldn’t really picture him doing a kids’ movie. And when I saw the first trailer, I was turned right the hell off, as the people at 20th Century (sigh) Fox would seem to have included a lot of stuff not in the book, and completely modernized it.

However, that was several months ago, and successive trailers have turned me almost completely around. Nearly every critic that has seen it has loved it (92%/36 on RT) and I truly hope that this film’s expansion is enough to put it in my local AMC or Harkins. Its animation style is certainly far, far different from all the other animated fare this winter, given that it seems to rely on mostly “Claymation” technology, much like the collective works of Aardman Studios (Chicken Run, Wallace and Gromit). This could definitely be a dark horse of a pick.


My predictions for the weekend of November 13-15, 2009:

1. 2012 - $55 million
2. A Christmas Carol - $20 million
3. The Men Who Stare at Goats - $8 million
4. This Is It - $7 million
5. Pirate Radio - $6 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, three more movies are on tap as I chronicle the films of November 20th, including: The Twilight Saga: New Moon, Part Two in the enormously popular teenage-vampire-love-story series, as Edward (Robert Pattinson) and Bella (Kristen Stewart) struggle to keep their relationship intact despite sinister going-on in the vampire community; Planet 51, an animated romp from Sony/Columbia that features role-reversal of a classic scenario, when a world of little green men are invaded by… well, US, led by astronaut Dwayne Johnson; and The Blind Side, a heartwarming drama starring Sandra Bullock as a southern Mom who takes in a homeless African-American youth, who encourages him to overcome challenges by taking up football.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'm going to go with $24 million on A Christmas Carol. A 33% drop would be rather hefty for a movie of its type.

Also, I'd say between $3-4 million on Pirate Radio.

[Shrykespeare]

I almost agree with you. $6 million for PR is wishful thinking.

[Geezer]

I agree with Boush on ACC. I see it having an absolutely minimal drop, and think it should get about 24-25 as well.

[W]

I have somewhat bigger plans for 2012 than you, Shryke. The Day After Tomorrow was just as disposable, had less going for it than this and hit $186 M. This weekend is basically completely open and this film is everywhere. I'd like to say $201.2 M total, but it'll probably be closer to $180.

[Shrykespeare]

$201.2M. How poetic would that be?

[W]

poetic

That's the word I was looking for.

[Buscemi]

Here's something that I've been noticing: the declining estimate of theatres 2012 will be opening in. Initially, the estimate was 4,025 theatres. Then, it dropped to 3,550 theatres. Now the estimate is only 3,000 theatres. Are theatre owners telling us something?

[W]

No, I don't think so... I believe 3000+ means more than 3000, which is what I saw on Mojo. I don't put much stock into theater counts anyways (when they're over 3000) with my thinking being that when there's that many theaters, its not like anyone is going to miss the chance of seeing it. I mean, its going to be in a theater close by if there's any first run theater close by.

[Geezer]

You're right W, about that it will be in reach of anyone that wants to see it. However, I have to agree with Boush and say that if the people in charge have a lot of confidence in the film, the more theaters it will wind up in. That is why the biggest movies have humongous theater counts. The studios have confidence in them so they push out a ton of prints. I'd say that a film that should open massively and starts in less theaters than expected is a sign that the higher ups aren't too confident in their product.

[Shrykespeare]

Since theater counts and screen counts are not the same thing, I would imagine that showing the film on multiple screens would be the only way to guarantee success, especially given the film's 158 minute running time. If multiple prints are not being sold, that means an even lower OW.

Besides, it being the holidays and what with the economy, maybe this is not what people want to see.


On another topic, I've been hearing rumors that a TV series that will be a continuation from this movie is being developed, which will eventually take the place of Lost. Any truth to this, or is it all speculation?

[Buscemi]

Emmerich has confirmed that this is the case. He will produce the series with Mark Gordon and 2012 co-writer/composer Harald Kloser. The plan is to set the series in 2013, after the end of 2012 (bingo, Emmerich just gave away the end of the movie).

[Geezer]

LOL, Boush you just thought that everyone dies? This is Hollywood! We love happy endings!

[transformers2]

I think 2012 will also be pretty damn big. People love disaster movies plus this whole 2012 end of the world crises is everywhere. So i am expecting a 60-65 mill opening weekend and an overall grose of around 190 mill.

[W]

Something like that is my opinion on the subject. I grabbed both it an New Moon in most BO leagues instead of Avatar or whatnot (I think). I did grab Alvin 2 instead of it this time, though, I think.