SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/18/11

[Shrykespeare]

Sometimes my job is easy, sometimes it’s difficult. I was sure last week that Adam Sandler’s romantic comedy Just Go With It would dominate at the box office; and while it did win, it was by a much slimmer margin than I anticipated. Justin Bieber’s rockumentary Never Say Never came very close to being the upset winner, earning just over $30 million to Just Go With It’s $31 million. And let’s not forget Gnomeo and Juliet, which finished third with a very respectable $25 million of its own, proving that the combination of Disney and Elton John is still a potent one. And hats off as well to Ed Helms and Cedar Rapids, which handily won the PTA crown this past weekend.

Gird your loins, folks, because if you thought the outlook for this coming weekend (February 18) was murky, then you don’t know the half of it. Consider: Just Go With It is in roughly 3,500 theaters, and you can expect it to lose about half of its audience in its second weekend. Gnomeo and Juliet, in just under 3,000 locations, can expect to hold well as most kids’ movies tend to do. Bieber, however, can probably be expected to plummet out of the Top 5 entirely. What muddies the waters further this week is that there are three new films to talk about, and they are ALL debuting with roughly the same release platform (just over or under 3,000 theaters). Talk about confusing. It’s such a tough weekend to call, I would understand if you just gave the entire weekend a miss and saved your money for surer things. That’s probably what I’m going to do.

We’ll get things rolling this week with Unknown, an action/drama/thriller from Warner Bros. Led by Spanish director Jaume Collet-Serra (Orphan), Unknown stars the very busy and very capable Liam Neeson – who is pushing 60 and hasn’t slowed down one iota – as Dr. Martin Harris, who is attending a conference in Berlin with his wife (Mad Men’s January Jones) when he has the misfortune to be in a car accident that causes him to be in a coma for several days.

However, the plot thickens when he awakens to discover that his wife no longer recognizes him and another man (Aidan Quinn) has assumed his identity. Refusing to doubt his sanity or his senses, his attempts to prove he claims to be soon find him on the run from various authorities and mysterious assassins. His one ally comes in the form of a woman named Gina (Diane Kruger, always excellent), and together, the pair must unravel the mystery of just why Martin has been stripped of his entire life.

If any of the new films jump out at me at all this week, it’s this one. Not many people expected Taken to be the runaway hit in 2009 that it was ($145 million with a January release), and while I think Unknown may not earn QUITE that much green, I am somewhat loathe to underestimate it. I think that it will earn $23 million in its OW, taking first place by a narrow margin on this overly crowded weekend. For $12 (both Ultimate and Box Office), you could earn eight or nine Top 5 points, maybe a couple of PTA, and $58 million. And if its current User Rating is anything to go by (a stout 9.2 with over 500 votes already tallied), it won’t hurt you in that category either. If you have to pick a film from this weekend, make it this one.

I wish that the next film up, I Am Number Four, was given more notable release date, because I want it to succeed for no other reason than D.J. Caruso is directing it. The man behind the camera for two of Shia LaBeouf’s recent endeavors, Disturbia and Eagle Eye, is helming this one as well, but with the less-famous English actor Alex Pettyfer in the starring role. Will that have an effect? I have to believe so.

Based on the novel of the same name by James Frey and Jobie Hughes (which was on the New York Times bestselling kids’ books for six weeks), I Am Number Four follows the story of John Smith (Pettyfer), an alien being from the planet Lorien, who is one of nine teenagers currently hiding on Earth. They are being hunted by another alien race called the Mogadorians, and because of a special charm that protects each of them, the Lorians can only be killed in a set order. John is then informed by his guardian, Henri (Timothy Olyphant) that the first three have already been executed, and he is next.

Fortunately, Lorians can easily pass for human, and has found some comfort being a high school student in Paradise, Ohio. But the battle is coming to him, and he, along with the mysterious Number Six (The Sorcerer’s Apprentice’s Teresa Palmer), must use their extra-terrestrial powers to keep themselves alive. Dianna Agron and Kevin Durand also co-star as John’s would-be girlfriend and the Mogadorian commander, respectively.

A couple of years ago, I had incredibly high hopes for a movie called Push, another film that featured young people with super-powers, and also helmed by one of my favorite directors (Paul McGuigan, who was behind the camera for Lucky Number Slevin, one of my all-time faves). Unfortunately, it was a box-office disappointment ($31.8 million), and am leery of believing that I Am Number Four will share the same fate. Let’s face it, Alex ain’t Shia, and probably never will be. Still, if the lackluster Percy Jackson film can cobble together $88 million, maybe the outlook isn’t too bleak after all. Costing $13 in Ultimate leagues ($15 in Box Office), I envision a $20 million OW, six Top 5 points, a so-so Rating and $48 million. Like I said, probably not enough to pick it for your slates.

The least-welcome of the wide-release films this week is Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son, which is both a reboot of and a sequel to the once-popular Martin Lawrence comedies Big Momma’s House ($117 million in 2000) and Big Momma’s House 2 ($70 million in 2006). John Whitesell (who directed BMH2 as well as Deck the Halls) is back for this third installment, and, like many people, I have to ask… WHY?

To recap, Lawrence plays cop Malcolm Turner, who has been doing undercover duty for a while in the guise of Big Momma, an elderly obese woman who Malcolm transitions to using makeup, a fat suit and a extra-plus-sized wardrobe. This time around, he readopts the role in order to protect his stepson Trent (Brandon T. Jackson), who has the misfortune of witnessing a murder while visiting Malcolm; and so, not only must Malcolm once again be Big Momma, but Trent must go in drag as well, enrolling himself at a performing arts’ school for girls. Jessica Lucas and Faizon Love co-star.

Yes, it’s White Chicks meets Stakeout. I expect a horrible RT score for Big Mommas and an even worse IMDb score. Is it possible that I’m severely underestimating the “urban market” that represents this film’s key demographic? Possibly, but with another Madea film just around the corner, I have to believe that the male-actors-playing-old-ladies quota has been overly saturated. I will predict a 4th-place finish for Big Mommas, earning $15 million in its first three days on its way to two Top 5 points and $36 million overall. Just say no.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release films:

Vanishing on 7th Street ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – This post-apocalyptic horror/thriller from Magnolia Pictures will be debuting on only one screen this weekend (in New York), with a very slight expansion scheduled for next week. It stars Hayden Christensen, Thandie Newton and John Leguizamo, and is directed by Brad Anderson (The Machinist, Transsiberian).

The premise: a mysterious global blackout causes a huge section of the Earth’s population to simply vanish into thin air, leaving only their clothes and valuables behind. As people continue to disappear by the millions, so does daylight, forcing a handful of survivors to band together in a dimly-lit bar on 7th Street in Detroit, Michigan. Together, they must find a way to keep the lights on lest they vanish as well.

Vanishing has an excellent chance at PTA points, given its appearance on only one screen. However, before you blow $5 on it, consider its current, mediocre User Rating (5.4 with over 1,300 votes), which is not likely to move you up in the rankings much in that category. I’d probably use discretion on this film and leave it off my slates.

The Last Lions ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This is the first of three documentaries coming out this spring that center on animal wildlife, and the first of two that focus on lions (the other being African Cats, coming in April). This outing from National Geographic Entertainment is narrated by, ironically, Jeremy Irons (who voiced the villain in The Lion King, if you remember).

The film chronicles the life of a mother lioness called Ma di Tau (“Mother of Lions”) as she fights to protect her cubs against a wide variety of enemies and predators. Of course, the underlying message of the film is unmistakable; namely, that this species, the proudest members of the cat family, are perilously close to extinction (hence the title).

Scheduled to debut on four screens this weekend, I will peg The Last Lions as the marginal PTA champ this week. It should also scare up a reasonable User Rating (currently 7.5 with less than 50 votes), so, for $4, you could do a lot worse.


My predictions for the weekend of February 18-20, 2011:

1. Unknown - $23 million
2. I Am Number Four - $20 million
3. Just Go With It – $16 million
4. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son - $15 million
5. Gnomeo and Juliet – $14 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out February with four more films, which are: Drive Angry, the latest 3D B-movie actioner starring Nicolas Cage; Hall Pass, a comedy reuniting The Farrelly Brothers and Owen Wilson; Shelter, a horror/drama starring Julianne Moore and Jonathan Rhys Meyers; and, in limited release, French drama Of Gods and Men.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Hugh Downs (holds the world record for recorded hours on network TV) (90 on 2/14)
Jane Seymour (Wedding Crashers) (60 on 2/15)
Bonnie Wright (plays Ginny Weasley in the Harry Potter films) (30 on 2/17)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Inception, will next be in Live With It with Seth Rogen) (30 on 2/17)
Paris Hilton (now filming The World According to Paris for TV) (30 on 2/17)
Denise Richards (recently a semi-regular on Blue Mountain State) (40 on 2/17)

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Unknown $24 million ($29 million four-day) (I imagine people will show up thinking it's Taken 2 while waiting for the real Taken 2, which is in pre-production)
2. I Am Number Four $18 million ($22 million four-day) (I don't think many people will turn up for this Twilight clone)
3. Just Go With It $17 million ($22 million four-day)
4. Gnomeo and Juliet $15 million ($19 million four-day)
5. Big Mommas $13 million ($16 million four-day) (this is a franchise even more tired that Meet the Parents, you think that Fox would have stopped after the badly-received second film)
6. Justin Bieber $10 million ($13 million four-day)

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I'm not sure how they'll do going head to head, but I really want to see both Unknown and I Am Number Four. If I didn't see movies for free, those two would be the first movies I'd pay to see so far this year.

And Ginny Weasley is 30? Are you sure you don't mean 20?

[numbersix]

Current tracking (but remember they said Gnomeo would make 10-15mil) has I Am No. 4 earning into the 30's for the 4-day weekend. I think it being a Twilight wannabe, as Buscemi claims, is the reason why people will flock to see it. It's the cloest to a tentpole for the rest of the month.

Again, I agree with Shryke and Bousch in that Unknown will do well due to the Taken comparisons, and should impress. Big Moma 3 is too desperate, too late.

I've no real faith in either limited movies in terms of PTA. Don't think either will beat Cedar Rapids, I Am No. 4, or Unknown.

My guesses for the 3-day

1. I Am Number Four $25 million
2. Unknown $20 million
3. Just Go With It $16 million
4. Big Mommas $15 million
5. Justin Bieber $15 million

[Shrykespeare]

RT scores so far:

The Last Lions 88% (7/8)
Vanishing on 7th Street - 55% (12/22)
I Am Number Four - 33% (5/15)
Unknown - 30% (8/27) (But still at 9.2 on IMDb)
Big Mommas: 0% (0/10)


Here are some quotes from reviews of Big Mommas:

Anna Smith of Empire Magazine on Big Mommas: "Whoever demanded a third instalment of Lawrence's mirthless mash-up of weak gags and cross-dressing horrors should be imprisoned and forced to watch it on repeat until they repent. Avoid."

Roz Laws, Birmingham Post: "The movie is at least 20 minutes too long. Actually, it's 107 minutes too long."

Matthew Turner, ViewLondon: "The world's least funny comedian returns in this lazily written, pointless and painfully laugh-free threequel to the Big Momma's House franchise that should be avoided at all costs."

Derek Adams, Time Out: "Quite how this flaccid, one-joke crime-comedy franchise even got off the ground is a mystery."


Music to my ears.

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

I Am Number Four - 3,154
Unknown - 3,043
Big Mommas - 2,821
The Last Lions - 4
Vanishing on 7th Street - 1


Next week:

Hall Pass - 3,000+
Drive Angry - 2,200
Of Gods and Men - N/A

[Buscemi]

Surprised by the low count on Drive Angry. I figured that would get 3,000 theatres showing it in both flat and 3-D. I'm guessing it will be similar to Sanctum with all but 200 prints being in 3-D.

[Buscemi]

Turns out Drive Angry will have 500 2-D prints in circulation, according to HSX. Summit wanted to release it 3-D only but exhibitors refused to book it if 2-D versions weren't made available.

Anyways, here are the Friday numbers.

1. Unknown (Dark Castle/Warner Bros) NEW [3,154 Theaters]
Friday $6.7M-$7.2M, Estimated Four-Day Holiday $24M-$26M

2. I Am Number Four (DreamWorks/Touchstone/Disney) NEW [3,043 Theaters]
Friday $6M-$6.8M, Estimated Four-Day Holiday $20M-$24M

3. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son (New Regency/Fox) NEW [2,821 Theaters]
Friday $4.8M-$5.6M, Estimated Four-Day Holiday $18M-$21.4M

4. Just Go With It (Sony) Week 2 [3,548 Theaters]
Friday $5M-$5.2M (-47%/-45%), Estimated Four-Day Holiday $20M-$23M, Estimated Cume $65M

5. Gnomeo & Juliet (Disney) Week 2 [3,014 Theaters]
Friday $4.2M (-32%), Estimated Four-Day Holiday $24M-$26M, Estimated Cume $55M

6. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (Paramount) Week 2 [3,118 Theaters]
Friday $3.7M (-70%), Estimated Four-Day Holiday $14M, Estimated Cume $38.5M

7. The Kings Speech (Weinstein Co) Week 13 [2,086 Theaters]
Friday $1.3M, Estimated Four-Day Holiday $7M, Estimated Cume $104M

8. The Roommate (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 3 [2,160 Theaters]
Friday $1.3M, Estimated Four-Day Holiday $5M, Estimated Cume $33.6M

9. The Eagle (Focus Features) Week 2 [2,296 Theaters]
Friday $975K (-65%), Estimated Four-Day Holiday $4.5M, Estimated Cume $16M

10. No Strings Attached (Paramount) Week 5 [1,966 Theaters]
Friday $850K, Estimated Four-Day Holiday $3.3M, Estimated Cume $66.2M

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Friday Estimates


Unknown - $6.72M
I Am Number Four - $6.2M
Just Go With It - $5.2M
Big Mommas - $4.8M
Gnomeo and Juliet - $4.3M
Justin Bieber - $3.8M
King's Speech - $1.5M
The Roommate - $1.2M
The Eagle - $1.0M
No Strings Attached - $900K

King's Speech is now $1.8M away from $100M. Black Swan officially hit $100M on Thursday.

[Geezer]

Damn i was not confident in Unknown. I thought it would be too... well.. unknown. Just didn't see to much advertising and the ads I did see did nothing to distinguish it.

[silversurfer19]

Yeah, I think I did the right thing in dropping Unknown at the last minute in favour of Hall Pass. I just think Hall Pass can bring in a couple more top 5's and similar BO at least. With those largely average numbers I think it may even beat Unknown. I suppose that's what you get for trying to get away with releasing an entirely unoriginal movie which just steals from so many others and plays on the idea that it's an unofficial sequel to Taken.

[Buscemi]

Hall Pass will be just like all of The Farrelly Brothers' other attempts at copying There's Something About Mary. Also, Jason Sudeikis is not the next big thing even though New Line is trying to tell you otherwise. I'll give it a $14 million opening and a $35 million finish.

[silversurfer19]

No chance, it'll to much better than that. The trailers over here have been really well received and I have no doubt it will win it's OW. And what's wrong with trying to replicate your best and most successful movie? If they can come even close to Mary's numbers, heck even half of those numbers, and I'd be more than satisfied.

[Buscemi]

The problem is that they've replicated it in almost every film they've done since then. And their last attempt at it (The Heartbreak Kid) bombed. At least their next film (Movie 43) will be something different (since it will be an anthology film with a hidden treasure plot and several directors doing segments).

In the US, marketing has been rather limited (I've only seen one trailer and it was before the terrible Due Date, which probably ended Zach Galifianakis's time as the big comedic actor of the moment) and it's got Rango the very next week and Battle: Los Angeles the week after.

[Shrykespeare]

My predictions for the weekend of February 18-20, 2011:

1. Unknown - $23 million
2. I Am Number Four - $20 million
3. Just Go With It – $16 million
4. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son - $15 million
5. Gnomeo and Juliet – $14 million

BOM Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Unknown, $21.8M
4 points - I Am Number Four, $19.5M
3 points - Gnomeo and Juliet, $19.4M
2 points - Just Go With It, $18.2M
1 point - Big Mommas, $17M

So I was fairly close on most of them. Bravo to G&J for holding so well (down only 23.5%).


PTA:
5 points - The Last Lions
4 points - Cedar Rapids
3 points - Unknown
2 points - Gnomeo and Juliet
1 point - I Am Number Four

No word yet on Vainishing on 7th Street.


User Ratings:

Unknown - 8.0
I Am Number Four - 6.2
Big Mommas - 3.0
Vanishing on 7th Street - 5.3
The Last Lions - 7.5

Justin Bieber is now down to 1.1. Damn, the haters are out in full force.