SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Jeez, it’s been a weak year so far. Only one 2011 film (The Green Hornet) has debuted higher than $20 million, and only two others have managed an OW higher than $15 million. Not that that’s a terribly unusual happenstance, mind you, given that January films are supposed to be weak, but one can only hope that things pick up in the next few months. After all, we’re still thirteen weeks away from the summer season and the debut of Thor; there has to be something worth our while in the interim!

There are four wide-release films debuting this Friday (February 11th), and I am of the belief that one of them will be 2011’s first blockbuster (yeah, The Green Hornet still has an outside chance, but it’s not there yet). Valentine’s Day weekend last year, as a yardstick featured impressive debuts from its three major films: Valentine’s Day debuted with an incredible $56 million OW, with The Wolfman ($31.4 million) and Percy Jackson ($31.2 million) also impressing. The aggregate star power on that weekend, however, isn’t quite as prevalent as it is here, and that makes me believe that these big numbers will not be duplicated this year.

It’s a fact that there are many directors who just seem to have that one actor who clicks with them. Just ask Tim Burton and Johnny Depp, or Tony Scott and Denzel Washington. This also seems to be the case with Dennis Dugan and Adam Sandler, who teamed up for the first time with 1996’s Happy Gilmore and have worked together five more times since. Their latest collaboration, Just Go With It, looks to be the big Valentine’s Day weekend rom-com, courtesy of Columbia Pictures and Happy Madison. It will be debuting in 3,400 theaters this Friday.

This time out, Sandler plays Danny, a successful plastic surgeon who employs an interesting tactic to meet single women; he pretends to be in a loveless, painful marriage. Which has worked fine until now, but when Danny meets a woman who he thinks could be “the one” (played by SI swimsuit model Brooklyn Decker), he has to expand on his lie. More specifically, he has to prove to her that he is getting a divorce, and must therefore find someone to fill the role of his soon-to-be ex. Enter his office manager Katherine (Jennifer Aniston), who grudgingly agrees to help Danny, but (as is wont to happen) the lies soon snowball out of control, involving Katherine’s kids and a fateful trip to Hawaii. Among the supporting cast is Nick Swardson, Kevin Nealon, Mario Joyner, Minka Kelly (two movies in two weeks!) and Dave Matthews. Nicole Kidman is also supposedly in this movie, but if that’s the case, why can she not be seen in even ONE of the trailers? And, also, even more curiously… no Rob Schneider?!

Adam Sandler is hit-or-miss with me. I’ve enjoyed some of his stuff and loathed others, but this one looks like it could be a winner. If any February movie has any shot at all of $100 million, this is it. With that in mind, is it worth spending $20 on it in Ultimate ($21 in Box Office)? I would have to say yes. Its upcoming competition is capable but not overly so, so I think that for your money, you will end up with ten Top 5 points, four PTA, a rating of 6.8 and an OW of $41 million (on its way to $105 million overall). Sandler/Dugan entries tend to top $100 million no matter when they are released, and Just Go With It seems your surest bet until Rango is released in early March.

Every few years a new, very young singer or group comes out that becomes a huge pop sensation. Their albums sell like hotcakes, their YouTube videos get millions of hits, and their posters adorn the walls and lockers of middle-school girls the world over. It also seems to be a pattern that after a certain measure of success is achieved, a documentary is made about their rise to stardom. This can be done well, and meet with much success (Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, $65.2 million), or it can be done badly and flop (Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience, $19.1 million). So what does that bode for Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, a rockumentary featuring excerpts of the 16-year-old pop star’s rise to fame as well as a behind-the-scenes look of his latest tour? Who can say? (And WHY is it in 3D? I mean, WHY?)

Look, I’m way out of my element in this case, and I’ve honestly got nothing against the kid. He seems like a good guy, clean-cut, with his head screwed on straight, and without that creepy Mormon aspect that the Jonas Brothers had (and they’re all gone now, aren’t they?). I have no idea whether his career will last five years or fifty, but in the meantime, I’m going to assume that his fan-base is quite substantial, and it is this film more than a grown-up Adam Sandler comedy or an animated take on Shakespeare (more on that in a sec) that will be brining girls between the ages of 8-18 to theaters this weekend.

I’ll predict a healthy opening for Never Say Never, in the neighborhood of $19 million. However, this is the kind of movie that burns out quickly, and by the end of February should have one foot out the door. Say, six Top 5, three PTA, and $36 million. Not great, but not bad. And what WILL be bad? The Rating. I’d bet the house on it. Consider that the Hannah Montana and Jonas Brothers movies both had User Ratings below 3.0 (2.8 and 1.3, respectively). And we all know why… trolls on IMDb that delight in bashing films like this without coming within ten miles of a theater that’s actually playing it. I would expect a Rating no higher than 4.0 for Justin’s movie, whether it’s deserved or not. Therefore, I would seriously think twice before spending $9 in Ultimate. $11 in Box Office is slightly more advantageous, but only if you think I’m low-balling its chances.

When the original Toy Story came out, it presented us with an interesting premise; what do toys do when nobody’s looking? Well, as we all know, they come alive, have very distinct personalities, and even form close-knit societies. More than a decade later, that same premise is being applied to a demographic that is largely ignored by Hollywood outside of Travelocity commercials: garden gnomes. And on top of that premise, these are modern-day gnomes who are paralleling the story of Shakespeare’s immortal love story, Romeo and Juliet.

I am betting that this made-for-kids animated comedic tale, entitled Gnomeo and Juliet, will not end nearly as tragically as Shakespeare’s version did. (Any takers?) Lest you were spared having to read the story in high school lit class, here it is in a nutshell: Blue gnomes (Montagues) and red gnomes (Capulets) have been feuding with each other for years (God knows why). But when blue gnome Gnomeo (James McAvoy) meets red gnome Juliet (Emily Blunt), the two become smitten with each other despite the fact that they are forbidden to see each other. And so, the two star-crossed lovers must find a way to find happiness and avoid tragedy amidst this blood feud.

The supporting cast brought together by director Kelly Asbury (Shrek 2) is quite impressive: Michael Caine, Maggie Smith, Jason Statham, Julie Walters, Ozzy Osbourne, and Patrick Stewart (who voices Shakespeare himself). There are also several classic songs in the soundtrack performed by Elton John himself, including a duet with Lady Gaga. It, too, is being showcased in 3D, but I expect that won’t make that much difference. Debuting in 2,700 theaters this Friday, I have to wonder about Gnomeo’s chances.

If you don’t count the Bieber movie, this is really the only pure kids’ movie in all of February. It’s also the first major animated film of the year, and could show decent legs, as kids’ movies often do… at least, until Rango comes out in three weeks, after which I suspect Gnomeo and Juliet will disappear rather quickly. That being said, I really wouldn’t spend $10 on it in Ultimate (nor $12 in Box Office). Three Top 5, maybe one or two PTA, $33 million and a Rating in the 5’s is so not worth that much money.

It’s rare to see four films going wide to debut in the same week, but this is one of those occasions. The one being given the smallest release platform is The Eagle, which will be bowing in roughly 2,150 theaters starting Friday. This historical epic from Focus Features parallels quite closely the events of the 2010 film Centurion, with a few minor tweaks. Normally, I’d be excited to see the latest venture from director Kevin Macdonald (The Last King of Scotland, State of Play), but nothing about The Eagle really screams excellence to me.

Taking place in the year 140 A.D., a young centurion named Marcus Aquila (Channing Tatum) attempts to uncover the truth about what happened to a legion of soldiers – led by his father – that disappeared in northern Britain twenty years before, along with the venerated symbol of Rome, “The Eagle”. Choosing a Scottish slave named Esca (Jamie Bell) as his guide, Marcus ventures deep into enemy territory on a quest to reclaim the Eagle and restore his father’s sullied name.

Filmed on location in Scotland and Hungary, The Eagle is based on the 1954 historical adventure novel The Eagle of the Ninth (which was also the original title of the film, a title I think I prefer to the shortened version) by Rosemary Sutcliff. As I said, it’s being given a very modest release platform, largely because: 1) Focus Features doesn’t seem to have the means to put its films out much wider than that, and 2) I have a sneaking suspicion that a movie set in the era of centurions and gladiators isn’t likely to attract much attention unless someone like Ridley Scott or Zack Snyder is at the helm, which isn’t the case here.

The Eagle will only run you $6 in Ultimate leagues ($8 in Box Office), but with this many movies coming out this week (and three more next week), Top 5 points will not be at a premium for quite a few films, including this one. I think it will only manage $10 million on its OW, and end up with two Top 5, no PTA, a Rating in the 6’s and $24 million. There are bigger and meatier fish to be had elsewhere, I think you’ll agree.

This week’s only limited-release feature is Cedar Rapids, a comedy from Fox Searchlight that was showcased a few weeks ago at Sundance. Director Miguel Arteta (Youth in Revolt) has assembled a fairly impressive comedic cast that includes Ed Helms (The Hangover), John C. Reilly (Step Brothers), Stephen Root (Office Space), Rob Corddry (Hot Tub Time Machine) and Sigourney Weaver (You Again), as well as Anne Heche, Kurtwood Smith And Isiah Whitlock Jr.

The story centers on Tim Lippe (Helms, who also co-produced the film), an uber-naïve insurance agent who has never left his tiny hometown in Wisconsin, and has been dating his former 7th-grade teacher (Weaver) for years. However, Tim’s sheltered life is about to have its lid blown off when he is sent to an insurance convention in a “major metropolis”… Cedar Rapids, Iowa (pop. 120,000). Yeah, I know. Anyway, while Tim is there to save his struggling company’s life, he will be using it to let his proverbial hair hang down for the first time ever, with the help of a few more-colorful characters like party animal Dean (Reilly) and seductive minx Joan (Heche). Will there be alcohol? Yep. Prostitutes? You betcha!

Okay, it may not be The Hangover, but it does look quite amusing. For what it’s worth, the six critics that have sent a review to RT have all been positive. It will be debuting in 15 theaters this Friday, which makes it a likely candidate for PTA points. Enough to justify spending $6 on it? You’ll have to decide. The Rating should be quite reasonable.

Final note: the Australian drama In Her Skin (aka I Am You) was also scheduled to be released this weekend, but Box Office Mojo has changed its released date to the ever-popular “TBD”. I am not sure why this is… all other sources, including IFC Films’ own website, still have it coming out this Friday. However, since I have been unable to find any trace of a trailer on the Internet (and the film is two years old, what’s up with that?), I am inclined to believe it. (Boosh, any ideas?)


My predictions for the weekend of February 11-13, 2011:

1. Just Go With It – $41 million
2. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never – $19 million
3. Gnomeo and Juliet – $14 million
4. The Eagle – $10 million
5. The Roommate – $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, five new films take center stage, including: I Am Number Four, a sci-fi actioner starring Alex Pettyfer; Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son, the third chapter in the Martin Lawrence comedy series; Unknown, an action thriller starring Liam Neeson; and limited-release features Vanishing on 7th Street and The Last Lions.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Vince Neil (Motley Crue, recently on Skating With the Stars) (50 on 2/8)
Nick Nolte (will be a voice in Zookeeper this summer) (70 on 2/8)
Emma Roberts (It’s Kind of a Funny Story, will be in Scream 4 in April) (20 on 2/10)
Carey Lowell (Law & Order [1996-2001], married to Richard Gere) (50 on 2/11)


Later!






Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by numbersix »

That's a hell of an opening weekend for Just Go With It. I think 30 mil is more like what we'll see. Your Bieber figure seems about right, but it could go higher if advance ticket sales tell us anything. Gnomeo and Juliet buzz has been low, as has early tracking so I'm not sure if it'll even hit as high as 14mil, though it should have legs. And finally The Eagle looks DOA

Predictions

1. Just Go With It – $31 million
2. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never – $20 million
3. Gnomeo and Juliet – $10 million
4. No Strings Attached - $7 million
5. The Eagle – $6 million


Cedar Rapids should do relatively well but with 15 locations its future potential is limited. I'd say it'll get 4 PTA points (JGWI will get the top mark)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

I want to see Just Go With It. It's the first film i've been interested in seeing since True Grit and the first Adam Sandler film i've been interested in since 2004 when he came out with 50 First Dates and Spanglish. I will also probably see the Eagle when it comes out on dvd, Last King of Scotland is on my list and State of Play was very enjoyable, so i'll give this one a chance as well.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

I don't know anything about In Her Skin. IFC is usually a company that releases whenever they feel like it.

Anyways...

1. Just Go With It $37 million
2. Justin Bieber $16 million (the February 9th preview will hurt some of the box office)
3. The Eagle $9 million
4. Gnomeo and Juliet $7 million
5. The Roommate $7 million

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Cedar Rapids went wide on the 25th. It seems like the type of film with wide appeal. Also, trailer reception has been positive.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

And the reason why Nicole Kidman has been in none of the marketing for Just Go With It is that she is box office poison. People will absolutely not go see her in a movie. In fact, the Oscar nomination on Rabbit Hole didn't even help that film's middling numbers. It actually dropped after the nominations were announced.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

Early tracking:

Just Go With It $34 million
Justin Bieber $26 million
Gnomeo and Juliet $20 million (from mid single digits a week ago)
The Eagle $6 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Just Go With It - 3,548
Justin Bieber - 3,105
Gnomeo and Juliet - 2,998
The Eagle - 2,296
Cedar Rapids - 15


Estimates for next week:

Unknown - 3,000+
I Am Number Four - 3,000
Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son - 2,900+
The Last Lions - 4
Vanishing on 7th Street - 1


Wow... The King's Speech was the #1 money earner for Wednesaday. In its 76th day of release!!
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

Justin Bieber is looking at a $12 million opening day. I'm glad I picked this up in box office at the last minute.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Buscemi »

Friday Numbers:

1. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never 3D (Paramount) NEW [3,105 Theaters]
Friday $12.5M, Estimated Weekend $28M

2. Just Go With It (Sony Pictures) NEW [3,548 Theaters]
Friday $10M, Estimated Weekend $30M

3. Gnomeo and Juliet (Disney) NEW [2,994 Theaters]
Friday $5.8M, Estimated Weekend $22M

4. The Eagle (Focus Features) NEW [2,296 Theaters]
Friday $3M, Estimated Weekend $8.5M

5. The Roommate (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 2 [2,534 Theaters]
Friday $2.4M (-62%), Estimated Weekend $7.5M, Estimated Cume $25.2M

6. The King's Speech (The Weinstein Co) Week 12 [2,263 Theaters]
Friday $1.9M, Estimated Weekend $7M, Estimated Cume $93.4M

7. No Strings Attached (Paramount) Week 4 [2,756 Theaters]
Friday $1.7M, Estimated Weekend $5.5M, Estimated Cume $59.7M

8. Sanctum 3D (Universal) Week 2 [2,789 Theaters]
Friday $1.4M (-60%), Estimated Weekend $4M, Estimated Cume $16.5M

9. True Grit (Paramount) Week 8 [2,072 Theater]
Friday $1.1M, Estimated Weekend $4M, Estimated Cume $160.6M

10. The Rite (New Line/Warner Bros) Week 3 [2,207 Theaters]
Friday $975K, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $28.8M
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by numbersix »

A surprise from Gnomeo. Had it on all my slates and then dropped it due to tracking. I should have known!

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

BOM Friday estimates:

Justin Bieber, $12.4M
Just Go WIth It, $9.7M
Gnomeo and Juliet, $6.1M
The Eagle, $2.75M
The Roommate, $2.6M
The King's Speech, $1.8M
No Strings Attached, $1.7M
Sanctum, $1.4M
True Grit, $943K
The Green Hornet, $885K
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

BOM Sunday Estimates

Top 5:
5 points - Just Go With It - $31M
4 points - Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - $30.2M
3 points - Gnomeo and Juliet, $25.5M
2 points - The Eagle, $8.6M
1 point - The Roommate, $8.4M

So I was too hight on JGWI, too low on JB:NSN and GAJ, and pretty close on The Eagle. Wow. Didn't expect Gnomeo to do that well.


PTA:
5 points - Cedar Rapids
4 points - Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
3 points - Just Go With It
2 point - Gnomeo and Juliet
1 point - Cold Weather


Also: Black Swan is a hair's-breadth away from $100M. King's Speech will probably hit it sometime this week.


User Ratings:

Just Go With It - 5.5
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - 1.3
Gnomeo and Juliet - 5.0
The Eagle - 6.6
Cedar Rapids - 6.6

Wow, those are some crappy Ratings. And for those of you who took JB in Ultimate.... I DID warn you!
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

I'm really sorry i didn't take Gnomeo and Juliet

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by transformers2 »

I am so happy I swamped out Sanctum with Gnomeo and Juliet. One of the better moves I have ever made.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/11/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

BOM Sunday Actuals

Top 5:
5 points - Just Go With It - $30.5M
4 points - Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - $29.5M
3 points - Gnomeo and Juliet, $25.4M
2 points - The Eagle, $8.7M
1 point - The Roommate, $8.1M


PTA:
5 points - Cedar Rapids, $20,198
4 points - Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, $9,505
3 points - Just Go With It, $8,601
2 point - Gnomeo and Juliet, $8,469
1 point - Cold Weather, $6,500


Black Swan is now at $99.337M. King's Speech is at $93.675M. Green Hornet is at $92.405M. I think all will eclipse $100M. It looks like Yogi Bear ($96.6M) and The Fighter ($85.6M) will fall just short (unless The Fighter wins mondo Oscars and gets re-released).
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