SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/4/11

[Shrykespeare]

It’s rare that a film remains in the Top 5 more than two calendar months after its original release, but that is the case with The King’s Speech. The Oscar hopeful placed fifth this past weekend, and has an excellent chance to finish even higher this week due to its incredible momentum, its ever-increasing theater count and its relatively lackluster competition. However, it’s worth noting that since The King’s Speech was released in November, its stats will now no longer count toward any current leagues. Any Top 5 points it gets from here on out simply means that other films DON’T get them.

As we move into 2011’s second month, a month that is three days shorter than January but will see (for game purposes) the release of six more films (19 as opposed to13), we start to wonder in earnest about what 2011 will bring us. In only one short month, we will begin the March-May leagues, the league that will feature, for the first time, the beginning of the summer blockbuster season. Weird, isn’t it, considering that Christmas was only one short month ago?

Four movies will be debuting in theaters this weekend, and the first title on the list is Sanctum, an action-thriller that has been heavily advertised with James Cameron’s name attached to it. No, the guy who shattered the box office record books with Avatar last year is not directing, but he is in fact the executive producer, and Sanctum was also reportedly shot using the same 3D camera system that was using to film Avatar (though with significantly less blue screen, I’d wager).

Based on true events, Sanctum tells the tale of Australian underwater expert Andrew Wight (who also co-wrote the screenplay), who nearly perished a few years ago when he led a diving expedition into a system of underwater caves on the Gold Coast of Queensland, Australia. After a freak storm caused the entrance of the caves to collapse, the small band of explorers had to find another way to reach the surface without drowning.

It was an interesting decision by Cameron and director Alister Grierson to keep the cast of the film almost completely Australian for this story; one can only hope that the accents are not so pronounced that subtitles are required. The aforementioned cast includes Richard Roxburgh (Van Helsing), Ioan Gruffudd (Fantastic Four), Alice Parkinson (Where the Wild Things Are), Allison Cratchley and Rhys Wakefield.

Obviously, the name that will draw most of Sanctum’s American audience is that of Cameron, one would think. One would also think that it is the 3D aspect that will give moviegoers the most oohs and aahs, much more so than the relatively unknown cast and what looks to be an inspirational but rather routine man-vs.-nature rescue film.

Sanctum is slated four roughly 2,700 theaters this Friday, and I’m not sure if that number includes 3D and 3D IMAX theaters or not. In any case, I would be surprised if this film made any kind of breakout in theaters. I know Cameron loves his underwater stories, having helmed numerous undersea documentaries in between billion-dollar projects, but I have to believe that even with his name above the title, the fact that this film involves no futuristic killer robots, gigantic sinking boats or blue-skinned aliens means very little overall business.

This film will run you $11 in the February Ultimate leagues and $12 in Box Office. There is a very good chance that Sanctum will win the weekend because of its light competition, but with four wide-release films coming next week (and three more the week after that), the odds of Sanctum remaining in the Top 5 for more than two weeks are exceedingly low. In all, I predict a $14 million OW, six Top 5, two or three PTA (it’s guaranteed at least that much in the February leagues), $35 million total and a rating in the 6’s (it’s currently at 6.3 with just over 300 votes). I would probably pass on this one.

Up next is The Roommate, a horror film from Sony Screen Gems and Danish director Christian E. Christiansen. It features a bevy of young, recognizable stars in its cast, including Minka Kelly (Friday Night Lights), Leighton Meester (Country Strong), Danneel Harris (The Back-Up Plan), Cam Gigandet (Easy A) and Alyson Michalka (also from Easy A). Billy Zane and Frances Fisher (both from Titanic, ironically) also co-star.

The plot: college freshman Sara Webber (Kelly) show up to begin her college years and is randomly assigned a dorm room, which she will share with a girl named Rebecca Woods (Meester). The two hit it off almost immediately, and are BFF’s before you know it. Unfortunately for Sara, it turns out that Rebecca is a deeply disturbed (actually, batshit crazy) individual who has now developed a truly unhealthy obsession with her, to the point where violent confrontations can almost certainly be expected.

Shot on location at Los Angeles’s Loyola Marymount University, The Roommate will be playing in about 2,400 locations starting Friday. The young, good-looking cast and horror element may indeed lure young moviegoers into buying tickets, but I can’t see that happening in abundance. I will be generous and predict an $11 million OW for The Roommate, quite similar to the ho-hum OW enjoyed by The Mechanic last weekend. I also predict four Top 5 points, two or three PTA, a Rating in the high 5’s and $27 million. When you get right down to it, the film sounds just like Single White Female but with teenagers instead of twentysomethings. For $8 in Ultimate ($9 in Box Office), I would give The Roommate very little chance to actually help your slates.

I was originally going to be talking about this weekend’s three limited-release films, but since Around June was just postponed to a date somewhere, ironically, around June (I’m not making that up, it really was), there are only two films to talk about.

Waiting For Forever ($3 Ult) – This romantic drama from Freestyle Releasing is helmed by James Keach (yes, the same guy who played the evil cop in Moving Violations) and also features a group of recognizable young stars, including Rachel Bilson (The O.C.), Tom Sturridge (Pirate Radio) and Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray), as well as veteran actors Richard Jenkins, Blythe Danner and Jamie King.

Emma (Bilson) and Will (Sturridge) have been friends since childhood. Now that they are grown up, however, though Will’s feelings for Emma have blossomed into full-blown love, those feelings are unrequited. When Emma’s father (Jenkins) falls ill, Emma returns home, and Will – who has no home, no car, and no job to speak about save juggling for money – after becoming reacquainted with Emma, must find a way to prove to her that he is her one true love.

I have not much to recommend Waiting For Forever, but what I have may be more than enough to recommend spending $3 on it. Because it’s in a league’s lead-off weekend, it is guaranteed at least two PTA points, but, since its release platform is only four theaters, it has an excellent chance at at least five. And even if it only gets three our four, that’s still a very worthy investment, especially when you take into consideration its current Rating of 7.7 (with only 117 votes), a Rating that is unlikely to dip more than half a point. If I must recommend any film being released this week, it is most definitely this one.

Cold Weather ($2 Ult) – This outing from IFC films made its debut at the South By Southwest Film Festival in March of last year. Featuring a relatively unknown director, Aaron Katz, and an equally unknown cast, it will be debuting on only one screen this Friday.

It’s rather hard to discern the plot from the trailer, so I had to go to IFC’s website to get it, which reads: “After abandoning a promising academic career in forensic science, Doug (Cris Lankenau), returns to Portland to live with his more responsible big sister Gail (Trieste Kelly Dunn). He lands a dead-end job working in an ice factory, but soon finds an opportunity to use his passion and skill in detective work when his ex-girlfriend, Rachel (Robyn Rikoon) goes missing. Enlisting a team of ramshackle slacker-sleuths, Doug leads his team down a complex trail of clues and increasingly close to the discovering the mysterious truth about Rachel.”

Everything about this film seems to slant toward mediocrity. It has a so-so RT score (60% on 3/5 reviews), a so-so Rating (6.7/110 votes), and it is priced accordingly at $2. If you take this, you at least have the solace of knowing that you will end up with no fewer than two PTA points for your trouble, and it may even go as high as four. However, in a league when you can afford almost any combination of movies, I have to believe that there are slightly more expensive picks you can make that will yield more PTA points than this will.


My predictions for the weekend of February 4-6, 2011:

1. Sanctum - $14 million
2. The Roommate - $11 million
3. The King’s Speech - $10 million
4. No Strings Attached - $9 million
5. The Green Hornet - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, six films take center stage as we scope the four-day weekend ending in Valentine’s Day, and they are: Just Go With It, a romantic comedy starring Adam Sandler and Jennifer Aniston; Gnomeo and Juliet, a comedic animated take on the Shakespearean love story featuring feuding clans of garden gnomes; The Eagle, a historical action film starring Channing Tatum and Jamie Bell; Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, a rockumentary about the teenage pop icon; as well as limited releases Cedar Rapids and In Her Skin.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Justin Timberlake (Yogi Bear, will be in Bad Teacher later this year) (30 on 1/31)
Michael C. Hall (plays the title role on Dexter) (40 on 2/1)
Rob Corddry (Hot Tub Time Machine, will be in Cedar Rapids next week) (40 on 2/4)
Tim Meadows (SNL, The Ladies Man, currently on Glory Daze) (50 on 2/5)
Rip Torn (Dodgeball, will be in Men in Black III next year) (80 on 26)


Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll go with it:

1. The Roommate $15 million
2. Sanctum $11 million (there's been almost no marketing on this and the R rating hurts it)
3. The King's Speech $9 million
4. No Strings Attached $8 million
5. The Rite $7 million

[undeadmonkey]

Is it just me or has it been an awful january so far. I haven't been interested in anything new thats come out since True Grit. Nothing interesting this week either.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I haven't seen much marketing for Sanctum OR The Roommate. Looks like another ho-hum weekend.

Is next weekend really considered a four-day weekend? Valentine's Day isn't an official holiday or anything...

And I agree with UDM, January has been slack this year after the last two January's being pretty damn good. If I had to pay for movies, I wouldn't even go to the theater until probably Sucker Punch. Or maybe The Adjustment Bureau or Unknown, but that's only if I was super bored.

[Buscemi]

The 18th will be a four day weekend (President's Day). The 11th is going more for the date market (what other weekend would you see two romance films and a new Channing Tatum movie?).

Meanwhile, the early Rotten Tomatoes rating on Sanctum is 67% (2/3). I wouldn't be surprised if it finished with a Fresh rating (due to the true story aspect and the use of the Fusion 3-D system).

[numbersix]

Tracking has The Roommate beating Sactum by a considerable amount! Marketing for Sanctum is all over here some maybe there's a priortising of foreign markets?

I'll say

1. The Roommate: 14mil
2. Sanctum $12 mil
3. No Strings Attached $8 million
4. The King's Speech $8 mil
5. The Rite $7 mil

I'm gonna say Cold Weather will beat Waiting for Forever in terms of PTa, but both will lose out to both The Roommate and Sanctum, and probably Barney's Version and Biutiful

[Buscemi]

It seems more like an international type of film, Six. James Cameron does better internationally and the film has no American actors. Also, 3-D movies have been doing better internationally lately.

[transformers2]

Here are my predictions for the weekend.
1.The Roomate $17 Million (teenage girls always see horror movies like this)
2.Sanctum $13 Million
3.The King's Speech $10 Million
4.No Strings Attached $9 Million
5.The Rite $7 Million

[Shrykespeare]

I still am completely incapable of accessing the game site. Is anyone else having the same problem? (This isn't a hypothetical question, FYI.)

[transformers2]

I'm having the same problem Shryke.

[undeadmonkey]

i can get on the website

[Brockster]

With the weather being so bad this weekend I wouldn't surprised to see the new movies perform worse than expected.

[undeadmonkey]

yup, although, i think the weather will get a bit milder by the weekend. it's about 15F degrees here (what is that, about -10C?), there is no way i'm going out in this.

[thswrestler160]

in good old indiana our entire city is expected to be out of power in about an hour, almost all businesses including my theater are closed. The only time we have ever closed in the 4 years I've worked there was when a state of emergency was declared due to the city being flooded. The weather is pretty bad at least in the midwest and I dont expect much of any business if we are able to open up for the weekend.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Yeah, it's bad but my theater wouldnt close as long as it had power. I've driven to work in Level 2 snow emergencies.

It'll def have an impact on box office, as neither of these movies are must-see.