SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/28/11

[Shrykespeare]

Okay, I’m surprised. No Strings Attached debuted considerably higher than I anticipated, earning $20 million in its OW and dethroning The Green Hornet from the #1 spot after only one week. This marks one of the more impressive debuts for any romantic comedy in several months of failed attempts. Who’da thunk it? Hats off, once again, to Paul Giamatti and Barney’s Version, which dominated the PTA chart for the second straight week, and to The King’s Speech, which just continues to pick up steam as we barrel towards Oscar night.

The last week of January has been host, for the past three years, to a common theme. Films have debuted on that weekend that can best be described as action movies with dark overtones, or dark dramas with a fair amount of action. Films like Rambo, Taken and Edge of Darkness have made this particular weekend a playground for dark-tinted dramas, and 2011 brings with it… a gritty action movie and a dark, dramatic horror/thriller.

In the past few years, horror films that feature exorcisms have become so prevalent that one could almost consider it its own sub-genre. Films like The Last Exorcism, Drag Me to Hell, One Missed Call, Requiem and The Exorcism of Emily Rose have continued what the original classic The Exorcist movie started in 1973, but I can’t help but wonder if this section of horror/thrillers is starting to become over-diluted.

The last time Swedish director Mikael Håfström ventured into horror, it was with the 2007 summer outing 1408, which made a very respectable $72 million on the backs of its starts, John Cusack and Samuel L. Jackson. Can New Line’s The Rite continue the trend? I’m skeptical, to say the least. Based on the book The Rite: The Making of a Modern Exorcist by Matt Baglio (who co-wrote the script with Michael Petroni, who himself wrote the screenplay for the most recent Narnia film), The Rite would have us believe that, not too long ago, the Vatican sought to make the teaching of exorcisms to clergy around the world more common, though they would later “deny the story”. The movie centers on a young, disillusioned priest named Michael Kovak (Irish actor Colin O’Donoghue) who travels to Rome to learn how to become an exorcist under the tutelage of a veteran priest, Father Lucas (Oscar-winning actor Anthony Hopkins). In confronting "demons", including his own, Michael will find his waning faith tested. The impressive supporting cast includes Alice Braga, Toby Jones, Ciaran Hinds and Rutger Hauer.

The real question, I have to wonder – as I tend to with most thrillers of this nature – is whether the source of the horror comes from mere fear combined with superstition and religious fervor or whether something actually supernatural or otherwordly is actually afoot. The Rite is rated PG-13 for “disturbing thematic material, violence, frightening images and language”, but is probably tame enough for slightly younger audiences, which is a probably the right way to go from a financial perspective.

But will audiences line up for this? I just don’t know. Hopkins is a veteran, of course, capable of elevating almost any film, though it should be said that even he couldn’t elevate 2010’s The Wolfman to a level where it didn’t end up being my least favorite film of the year. There are plenty of recognizable names in the cast, but O’Donoghue isn’t one of them, and I think that only the more mature horror enthusiasts will be, erm, enthusiastic about seeing The Rite.

Scheduled to debut in nearly 3,000 theaters this Friday, despite my misgivings, I will peg The Rite to win the weekend with $16 million, based solely on its lack of competition. No Strings Attached and The Green Hornet should lose about half of its totals from this past weekend, and I don’t think that The Mechanic has quite enough juice to outdo it (more on that in a minute). The good news is, it’s only $7 in the January Ultimate contests, and for that, you might get decent numbers in the User Rating and Top 5 categories… say, 6.8 and seven Top 5 points. You may even scratch out a couple of PTA. However, most horror films tend to drop off sharply after its OW, and with other horror fare like The Roommate and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (sorry, couldn't resist) coming up, I don’t envision much more than $37 million for The Rite. For $8 in Box Office, it’s an iffy pick at best.

I came of age in the late 1970’s and 1980’s, which was rather too late to truly appreciate the heyday of classic tough guys like Charles Bronson. In 1972, Bronson starred in a film called The Mechanic, which co-starred Jan-Michael Vincent, Keenan Wynn and Bronson’s wife Jill Ireland. I am unable to discern whether the film was a success, but apparently CBS Films has deemed it worthy of a remake nearly 40 years later.

This does seem to be a true “remake”, as the 2011 version of The Mechanic has kept the lead character’s name the same. Action star Jason Statham plays Arthur Bishop, an elite assassin (known in parlance as a “mechanic”) who has an impeccable reputation for covering his tracks after eliminating targets. However, after his mentor and friend Harry (Donald Sutherland) is murdered, Arthur decides to break his normal protocols in order to find and kill those responsible. To that end, he joins forces with Harry’s son Steve (Ben Foster), teaching him the ropes along the way.

For me, Statham films are a lot like Nicolas Cage films: they tend to be entertaining, as long as you put away any preconceived notions or high-falutin’ expectations at the door (and as long as the film isn’t directed by Uwe Boll or Neveldine/Taylor, gack). I fully expect The Mechanic, with its gun battles, chase scenes, slick stunts and fast pace, to be just as entertaining as previous Statham outings such as Death Race or the Transporter films.

However, I cannot recommend The Mechanic for your slates. First off, its release platform (2,700 theaters) just isn’t enough to justify $8 on it (in either league). Secondly, its R rating will likely shoo off any but hardcore Statham and action enthusiasts (such as myself). And thirdly, CBS Films’ track record thus far has been less than impressive. Heck, it’s been less than UNimpressive. Extraordinary Measures bombed ($12 million), Faster bombed in the middle of holiday season ($23 million), and its best outing thus far? The Back-Up Plan ($37 million). That’s just sad.

Statham action films – not including the ones where he is just one of an ensemble cast like The Expendables or The Italian Job - tend to peter out somewhere between $22 and $36 million. Heck, not one of his solo jobs has made more than $44 million. Therefore, I will split the difference and predict $28 million, six Top 5, no PTA, and a Rating around 6.0. Really not worth it.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release features:

Biutiful ($6 Ult, $3 BO) – This stirring R-rated drama from Mexican director Alejandro González Iñárritu (Amores perros, Babel) was a darling at last year’s Cannes Film Festival. It competed for the coveted Palme d’Or, and it ended up winning the Best Actor Award for Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men). It is Mexico’s entry for Best Foreign Film at this year’s Oscars, and could probably have been up for consideration in other categories if had debuted on December 29th like it was originally supposed to. Why it didn’t, I have no idea, but it’s hardly a factor as far as game play goes.

The plot, described as briefly as possible, is this: “The film follows Uxbal (Bardem), an underworld figure and devoted single dad, through his attempts to reconcile with a past love and secure a future for his children as his own death draws near.” The trailer shows quotes from many enthusiastic reviews, but I should point out that not all critics are as over the moon as those quoted: it currently has a score of 64% on 25/39 at RT. Many of the reviews there agree that Biutiful is a beautiful yet bleak film, featuring a tour de force performance by Bardem. Will it have enough oomph in 50 theaters to depose Barney’s Version, which has held sway on the PTA charge for the last two weeks? I would say it’s definitely possible.

Once we get into February, picking PTA champs will become considerably more difficult, considering that there are 20 films to choose from (compared to only 13 from January). I would definitely recommend Biutiful for your slates, because a film with a pedigree like this cannot be ignored, even for $6. The chances of it producing less than four PTA are low, and, if nothing else, it has a sterling Rating of 7.6 (with nearly 2,000 votes). Go for it.

From Prada to Nada ($4 Ult, $3 BO) – This film from Lionsgate stars Alexa Vega (Spy Kids) and Camilla Belle (10,000 B.C.) as sisters Mary and Nora Hernandez, two spoiled Beverly Hills brats who lead a vacuous, materialistic life. However, it all goes sour the day their father passes away: apparently he was up to his ears in debt, had a mistress (who had a son), and they are now dirt poor and must move in with an aunt that lives in East L.A. April Bowlby (Two and a Half Men) and Wilmer Valderrama (That 70’s Show) costar.

Yes, it’s a feel-good, fish-out-of-water, learning-to-value-family-over-material-wealth movie, with probably a dozen other clichés that you could put in hyphens as well. From Prada to Nada is scheduled to be released in 250 theaters, which, as you know, is the kind of number that effectively puts the final nail in this film’s coffin. I haven’t seen this movie listed on anyone’s slates thus far, so it would appear that my advice is unnecessary, to which I say: good call, Fantaverse.


My predictions for the weekend of January 28-30, 2011:

1. The Rite - $16 million
2. The Mechanic - $14 million
3. No Strings Attached - $11 million (ironically, the same total I predicted it would have in its OW)
4. The Green Hornet - $10 million
5. The King’s Speech - $8 million

PTA Champ: Biutiful

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we begin the February-April leagues with five more films, including: Sanctum, the latest 3D project bearing Avatar director James Cameron’s name; The Roommate, a horror movie starring Minka Kelly and Leighton Meester; and limited release films Around June, Waiting For Forever and Cold Weather.


Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Neil Diamond (70 on 1/24)
Wayne Gretzky (50 on 1/26)
Scott Glenn (70 on 1/26)
Elijah Wood (30 on 1/28)
Charles S. Dutton (60 on 1/30)
Phil Collins (60 on 1/30)
Carol Channing (90 on 1/31)


Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll predict:

1. The Rite $23 million (It's basically Hannibal Lecter in The Exorcist. Who isn't going to want to see that?)
2. No Strings Attached $10 million
3. The Green Hornet $9.5 million
4. The Mechanic $9 million (the marketing has been horrible on this, had Lionsgate picked it up then would be getting an easy $15 million on opening weekend since they can market)
5. The King's Speech $8 million

[undeadmonkey]

NSA's numbers weren't that surprising. I'm sure Portman's globe win helped a bit

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I'm positive No Strings Attached will win the weekend, it's getting great word-of-mouth. And The Rite has nothing going for it. The trailers and TV spots are boring and don't show it as a horror movie at all. And Anthony Hopkins is nowhere being a box office draw.

And The Mechanic will flop, just like all of Jason Statham's action movies.

I doubt either of the new releases will gross more than $13M this weekend.

[Buscemi]

The ads for The Rite don't show it as a horror movie? They are almost exactly like the ads for The Exorcism of Emily Rose. That opened to $30 million back in 2005 (and didn't have a big name like Anthony Hopkins).

Anyways, here are the early tracking numbers:

The Rite: $20 million
The Mechanic: high single digits

[BanksIsDaFuture]

All of The Rite's ads only show Hopkins' hand shaking or quick flashes of a woman with dark eyes. They don't have a shock factor like Emily Rose (her body cracking into unbelievable poses and the guy's eyes bleeding black) or the Last Exorcist (that girl jumping at the camera and seeming breaking her own neck).

I think exorcism horror films need to show a bit more to pull people in, and also present a story in its ads. The Rite does not do either. Plus not having the word "exorcism" in the title will take away from getting walk-in viewers to see it.

And, off-topic, but I think The Mechanic is one of the worst titles an assassin film could have.

[Buscemi]

Well, The Mechanic is a remake and the title seemed to work in the 1970's (it's considered one of Charles Bronson's better films and one of the few mainstream action films to have an existentialist theme). And the tagline for the remake fits the title well "Somebody has to fix the problems".

A mechanic fixes things for others. A hitman fixes trouble for others. Hitman = mechanic. It makes sense.

[numbersix]

I'd say The Rite is being marketed well enough. The longer trailers sell it well. It's basically The Exorcist gets possessed.

1. The Rite $20mil
2. NSA $10 mil
3. The Mechanic $9
4. The Green Hornet $7
5. The King's Speech $6

As for PTa, I think Biutiful should win the weekend but with a theatre count of 50 it won't be much of a earner in the following weekends.

[Buscemi]

New tracking:

The Rite $18 million
The Mechanic $12 million

[Geezer]

I couldnt even tell from the tv spots that the Rite is about exorcism

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

The Rite - 2,985
The Mechanic - 2,703
From Prada to Nada - 256
Biutiful - 57

And 127 Hours expands to 916.


I hope that 57 locations doesn't stretch Biutiful too thin, as I have it in most of my Ultimate leagues.

[Buscemi]

Early crowd reports and online sales are encouraging on The Rite. It's reportedly bringing in both teenagers and older couples and it's #2 on Fandango sales right now (behind The King's Speech).

[Buscemi]

Early Estimates:

The Rite $15 million (underperforming due to weather in the East Coast, Warner Bros. does expect a Saturday increase though)
The Mechanic $10 million

[Buscemi]

127 Hours got $600,000 in its first day of wide release. It probably didn't help that the studio announced the DVD release (where it will probably make most of its money since people watching will wonder what it is) a few days before.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday estimates:

The Rite, $5.3M
No Strings Attached, $4.3M
The Mechanic, $3.6M
The Green Hornet, $2.9M
The King's Speech, $2.8M
True Grit, $1.9M
The Dilemma, $1.7M
Black Swan, $1.4M (would never have pegged this as a possible $100M earner, but it could get there, esp. if it wins Oscars)
The Fighter, $1.0M
Little Fockers, $677K