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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/13

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/13

Postby numbersix » October 11th, 2017, 3:41 am

The year of cinema continues to surprise… in a bad way. Both Blade Runner 2049 and My Little Pony were, at different stages, expecting to surprise but both underwhelmed and will struggle to count themselves as a success by the year’s end. Will anything surprise this weekend?




Your best chance is Happy Death Day (Universal), the only supernatural horror coming out between now and the prime-ghoul weekend that is Halloween. It’s a teen horror take on Groundhog Day, with a girl reliving her birthday, which also happens to be the day she’s murdered. With no major cast attached, its main appeal is its strong trailer, Blumhouse credentials (Split, Get Out), and its appropriate Friday the 13th release. That should give it enough to win the weekend, although It is still holding strong and may have sated that younger horror audience (although I’ve seen Lego that’s scarier than It). There’s also a crowded field next week to consider. So expect a high teens opening and a poor hold, giving you around $40m by the end. Not quite enough for the BO prices, although in Ultimate it’s not a bad choice for $11-13, when it could nab you 7 T5 points, 3 PTA, and a high 5s IMDB score.




Does Jackie Chan matter in the US anymore? STX are banking on it, with The Foreigner, Chan’s first lead role in a wide release in over 7 years. It’s a martial-arts actioner co-starring Pierce Brosnan, and directed by Casino Royale helmer Martin Campbell. It looks like the kind of film that should have come out in the 90s. So don’t expect much, certainly not enough to spend precious league dollars on it.




Marshall (Open Road) is the kind of film that should surprise. In this era of #BLM where politically and racially charged films help contribute to an ongoing cultural debate, this should be the next Hidden Figures. Chadwick Boseman plays Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall, the first African American to get that role, in one of his defining cases. Sadly, Open Road have decided to release it in 800 theatres, a bizarre choice that will result in it being of little value in BO and Ultimate.


And now, dear readers, comes the highlight of the weekend. I present to you:

BATTLE OF THE BORES!





That’s right, while limited independent films suggest something more niche, something more experimental, and this more exciting, in this instance we have two options that are more middle-of-the-road than a fucking Chicago album. One is about the dude who created Winnie the Pooh, the other is about the script-writer’s polio-inflicted father. Both are Oscar-bait that aim squarely for that older audience who want something more sedate and drama-focused. And both are getting somewhat damp responses by the critics after major festival screenings.

So who will win the PTA crown? Who cares! They’re both similarly priced, but those reviews might make more points from next week a less likely prospect, particularly when more exciting arthouse fare is coming out next week in the shape of The Killing of a Sacred Deer and Wonderstruck. And Victoria and Abdul is already catering for that older crowd. With 4 theatres instead of 8, Breathe (Bleeker St) might just edge out over Goodbye Christopher Robin (Fox Searchlight). But unless you’re expecting either to surprise, I’d look elsewhere for my $4 in ultimate and $1-3 in BO


My predictions for the weekend
1. Happy Death Day - $18m
2. Blade Runner 2049 - $16m
3. The Foreigner - $8m
4. It - $5m
5. The Mountain Between Us - $5m

- Marshall - $4m

PTA: Breathe, Goodbye Christopher Robin, The Florida Project, Happy Death Day, Dina

Next week Ron B comments on a demolition derby of wide releases, with Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, Geostorm, The Snowman, Same Kind of Different as Me, and Only the Brave all duking it out. And on the limited front, prestige pics The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Dealt, and Wonderstruck all vie for that PTA crown.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 11th, 2017, 3:59 am

I think Happy Death Day can hit $30 million this weekend. It's PG-13, it's a horror film opening on Friday the 13th, and it's from the (mostly) well-oiled Blumhouse machine. Plus, there hasn't been a movie for the younger teens in a while.

I'm expecting a big second weekend drop on Blade Runner 2049 despite the A- Cinemascore. All the fans showed up opening weekend and the word that it's all style has come out. The other two A- Cinemascore titles should hold a bit (The Mountain Between Us played well at my showing on Saturday until the ending).

I'm not expecting much with The Foreigner (IMAX missed a golden opportunity to split this* with Blade Runner this weekend before Geostorm and Only the Brave take all the screens) but I'll be there. Jackie Chan vs. James Bond sounds like a can't miss premise to me (and I think STX gambling on it has a lot to do with the Chinese money they get to make their movies).

Meanwhile, Only the Brave is getting sneak previews Saturday night. Sony must be banking on word of mouth to overcome the lack of promotion or awareness.

* - The Foreigner got an IMAX run in China two weeks early based on the success of Skiptrace there.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 11th, 2017, 6:43 pm

Funny you should mention James Bond, Boosh...


Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Kate Walsh turns 50 on 10/13 (now can be seen on 13 Reason Why)
Roger Moore would have turned 90 on 10/14 (Live and Let Die still kicks ass)
Linda Lavin turns 80 on 10/15 (I think the only cast member of Alice still kickin')
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Walleye413 » October 12th, 2017, 12:38 am

Seriously, are all the movies going to suck wind until Thor?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Walleye413 » October 12th, 2017, 12:39 am

Oh and I just re-watched For Your Eyes Only. It does not hold up! Live and Let die, on the other hand, oh yes.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 12th, 2017, 12:51 am

Walleye413 wrote:Seriously, are all the movies going to suck wind until Thor?


I expect the next three sequels opening before Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.5 to make money. But other than that...

Meanwhile, Only the Brave is supposed to be very good while The Snowman is apparently awful based on early reviews. Maybe the former will play okay after all.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby undeadmonkey » October 12th, 2017, 2:09 pm

Still annoyed about Blade Runner. Unless it's a brainless movie about superheroes nobody goes to see sci-fi/fantasy anymore. Watch Thor and Justice League have huge openings
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 12th, 2017, 3:30 pm

Thor's tracking in the $100-110 million range.

The thing with sci-fi is that audiences in the US just want it two ways: inspirational spaceman or military vs. aliens. Movies like E.T. or the original Alien would never get made nowadays as audiences would want shit blowing up or an astronaut discovering the meaning of life.

Edit: that Only the Brave preview I mentioned earlier is going to be a stay-and-see preview (a concept that faded away in the early 2000's due to the theatre chain bankruptcies). Just over 600 theatres will show Only the Brave followed by a free showing of Flatliners after. If this does well (and I think it will), I imagine we'll see more movies being sneaked this way.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 12th, 2017, 8:08 pm

Official theater counts:

Happy Death Day - 3,149
The Foreigner - 2,515
Professor Marston & the Wonder Women - 1,229
Marshall - 821
Goodbye Christopher Robin - 9
Breathe - 4



Next week:

Geostorm - 3,000+
Only the Brave - 2,400
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - 2,250 (pretty typical for a TP movie)
The Snowman - 1,800
Same Kind of Different as Me - Wide
Dealt - 1


Any idea what kind of count we might be looking at for Wonderstruck of Sacred Deer?
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 12th, 2017, 8:13 pm

Probably between 4-6 theatres. These are planned as big awards films and will be platformed accordingly (The Killing of a Sacred Deer is either expanding wide on November 3rd or November 10th, I've seen both dates listed).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 14th, 2017, 1:02 pm

Friday Estimatse

Happy Death Day, $11.6M
The Foreigner, $4.7M
Blade Runner, $4.3M
It, $2.0M
Mountain Between Us, $1.7M
American Made, $1.6M
Kingsman, $1.5M
Marshall, $1.0M
LEGO Ninjago, $1.0M




Weekend Projections:

Happy Death Day, $25M
Blade Runner, $13.6M
The Foreigner, $12.3M
It, $6M
American Made, $5.5M
Mountain Between Us, $5.4M
Kingsman, $5.1M
LEGO Ninjago, $4.4M
My Little Pony, $3.8M
Battle of the Sexes, $1.3M


PTA:

Happy Death Day, $8K
Christopher Robin. $6.4K
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 15th, 2017, 1:20 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Happy Death Day, $26.5M
4 points - Blade Runner 2049, $15.1M (-54%)
3 points - The Foreigner, $12.8M
2 points - It, $6.0M
1 point - The Mountain Between Us, $5.6M
American Made, $5.4M
Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $5.3M
The LEGO Ninjago Movie, $4.3M
My Little Pony, $4.0M
Victoria and Abdul, $3.1M

11. Marshall, $3.0M
14. Professor Marston and the Wonder Women, $737K



PTA:
5 points - The Florida Project
4 points - Happy Death Day
3 points - Breathe
2 points - Goodbye Christopher Robin
1 point - The Foreigner
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 16th, 2017, 6:49 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Happy Death Day, $26.0M (5)
4 points - Blade Runner 2049, $15.5M (9)
3 points - The Foreigner, $13.1M (3)
2 points - It, $6.1M (23)
1 point - The Mountain Between Us, $5.7M (5)
American Made, $5.5M
Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $5.4M
The LEGO Ninjago Movie, $4.3M
My Little Pony, $4.1M
Victoria and Abdul, $3.1M

11. Marshall, $3.0M
14. Professor Marston and the Wonder Women, $737K



PTA:
5 points - The Florida Project, $11,156 (10)
4 points - Happy Death Day, $8,269 (4)
3 points - Goodbye Christopher Robin, $6,435 (3)
2 points - Breathe, $5,571 (2)
1 point - The Foreigner, $5,214 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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