Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Buscemi2 »

With the leaves beginning to turn and the temperature on its way to dropping, we are now about to enter the Fall season. And with the first official weekend of Fall, we will get to cover three wide releases that hope to get people back into the theatres en masse and four limited releases hoping for some awards glory.

Last Week

To no one's surprise, It stayed in first with a $60.1 million gross, dropping a low for its genre 51%. Second was American Assassin with a $14.8 million weekend, which might not be good enough to start a franchise liked CBS hoped but with its B+ Cinemascore, should play okay in future weeks before it truly finds success on home video/VOD and pay cable. Third was the divisive mother!, which critics mostly liked but audiences roundly panned, getting the dreaded F Cinemascore, with a $7.5 million take. The result hampers any hope of future holds and awards (many had it contending in the Oscar race). Home Again took fourth with $5.2 million (40% drop) while The Hitman’s Bodyguard held steady in fifth with $3.6 million.

On the PTA scene, Brad’s Status won despite almost no pre-release buzz with a $22,480 average in four sites. The film expands to 450 theatres this weekend. The rest outside of It taking second was rather unspectacular.

This Week

"Circle" of Life

The week's most anticipated release is the heavily-marketed Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox), which opens in 3,900 theatres. I personally do not understand the success of these films, as all they seem to do is glorify Mark Millar's extremist views of the world where white English teenage thugs are a sort of master race and everyone else is inferior. Not helping is the fact that they are directed by Matthew Vaughn, producer of Guy Ritchie's earlier films and one who seems to fill his films with lots of casual racism.

Rant aside, the plot of the film (as etched into my mind from the constant showing of the trailer in theatres) is that the Kingsman organization has been destroyed by a terrorist attack, leading its members to lay low for a spell. In the process, this leads to an all-out war teaming the posh Kingsmen of the UK and the good ol' boy Statemen of the US against a bigger threat. The premise laid out by Millar, Vaughn, and screenwriter Jane Goldman suggests a story based on current events but knowing the material that Millar writes, I'm expecting nothing more than cheap stereotypes of everyone. Returning in the lead roles are Taron Egerton and Colin Firth. Additions to the cast include Julianne Moore, Halle Berry, Channing Tatum (continuing to take the roles Mark Wahlberg used to take before he became Mr. Savior of the Masculine American), and Jeff Bridges.

The first film was a surprise hit in February 2015, making $128 million despite heavy competition between Fifty Shades of Grey and a still-hot American Sniper. However, I believe this one will end up making less. The combination of a September filled with testosterone-filled fare (we have Tom Cruise's latest midlife crisis film opening next week after having been out for some time in Europe and Australia while October begins with the Blade Runner sequel) and a subplot that might not sit well with much of the first film's fans could allow for much shorter legs than the first film's long, smooth (perhaps muscular too, that Egerton seems to keep in shape) ones.

Box Office Potential: tracking has been in the $40 million range but I'm going to say it goes a bit lower, opening to $38 million before finishing out at $92 million. A good pick for sure but maybe not one to build your slate around.

"Lego" Mania

The second major title is not a sequel, but a spinoff. The Lego Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.), also opening in 3,900 theatres, is the third entry into the Lego shared universe developed by Warner Bros. and the first installment that does not connect with the events of 2014's The Lego Movie. Does the avoidance of characters like Emmet, Batman, Benny, and Unikitty hinder this film's potential with audiences? That after the synopsis.

The premise is more or less a mishmash of martial arts and kaiju films as a city is attacked by the villainous Lord Garmadon. His embarrassed son, Lloyd (both l's pronounced), seeks to hide from the sullied reputation of the Garmadon name until he is brought under the wing of Master Wu (voiced by Jackie Chan) to join a team of ninjas trained to defeat Lord Garmadon and bring peace to Ninjago. Much loud action ensues.

Warner Animation Group is hoping that this will be the next big franchise in the Lego universe. However, nothing, not even Jackie himself, has swayed me into this one. The trailers have been very underwhelming, the cast is very low-rent (Justin "Jennifer Aniston's Husband/Screenwriter of Zoolander No. 2" Theroux, Dave "James' Brother" Franco, Fred "Lorne Michaels' Personal Asskisser" Armisen, and Olivia "How Long Before Hollywood Gives Up on Her?" Munn are some of the other names here), and its big stinger in some of the trailers is a tired gag about butt-dialing (which I'm sure is impossible on a smart phone as they turn off automatically). Sure, the target audience might not care (see The Boss Baby, where Alec Baldwin drug out his Glengarry Glen Ross character into a Baby Geniuses-type plot and the film made millions) but I'm not seeing this playing like other late September/early October family-friendly hits.

Box Office Potential: tracking has been in the mid $30 million range but I'm also expecting a lower opening despite the empty family-aimed market. I'm going to say $29 million with a total of $85 million. They probably should have put Emmet in this one.

You've Got a "Friend" in Me

The third release this week is the long-delayed Friend Request (Entertainment Studios), getting a surprising 3,000 theatres. Filmed more than three years ago, this German production (but shot in English in Cape Town, South Africa) is already been long available on Blu-ray and DVD in Europe (the UK Blu-ray is region free and can be had about as much as a ticket to see it in a theatre) but Entertainment Studios must believe lightning can strike twice after the success of 47 Meters Down, another film that was widely available through some quickly recalled discs and torrents before it opened in June.

Anyway, the plot focuses on a popular college student who has over 800 friends on Facebook. One day, she gets a friend request (that's the title!) from a fellow student. And before you can say "delete", she accepts the request. Before long, the girl begins to notice her new Facebook friend's odd behavior and after the girl is not invited to her birthday party, she takes her own life in a video posted on the account, vowing revenge to make her "lonely". Soon, the girl is in a race against time to fight the spirit from getting to her next.

Yeah, it's not too surprising why this has been delayed so many times. Take your typical "technology is evil" plot that's appeared in so many flops in recent years and combine it with a stalker premise seen in Ingrid Goes West (only she's a ghost and it's not a comedy) and you get this. The IMDb rating isn't too promising with a 5.4 rating after 14,000 votes, give or take, and I don't expect that to change with its belated US release.

Box Office Potential: I'm not expecting anything. $2.5 million opening, $5 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

This week, there are four limited releases to cover.

Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight) - based on the famous 1973 tennis exhibition, this film focuses on the build-up leading up to the match between women's champion Billie Jean King (Emma Stone) and hustler/male chauvinist Bobby Riggs (Steve Carell). Directed by the team of Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris, these two have some appeal with Little Miss Sunshine from 2006 but are in movie jail after the complete failure of 2012's Ruby Sparks. Will this be their redemption or just another speed bump in the road to oblivion?

Reviews out of the festivals have been mixed to positive, with some even putting Stone in the Oscar race. However, comparisons between the premise and current events could be its undoing. Audiences have not wanted to watch films that remind them of what's going on lately (look at Detroit) and even though it's a comedy, the sexual tension elements could lead audiences to become uncomfortable (and already, those men's rights activists with fragile egos hate the film without having seen it).

Opening in 20 theatres, I would have initially called this the week's big PTA pick but I'm unsure now. It should be able to get somewhere between 6-9 points before dying in wide release. The IMDb score likely won't go beyond a 6 due to said MRA's having already downvoted the film. There might be better picks around.

Stronger (Roadside Attractions) - after the audience indifference of last year's Patriots' Day, Lionsgate enters the well of movies inspired by the Boston Marathon bombing of 2013 again. This time, we have this film from indie vet David Gordon Green (who has the new Halloween coming after this one). Jake Gyllenhaal plays Jeff Bauman, a man who lost his legs as a result of the bombing, and must adjust to restarting his life and overcoming what was taken from him. Tatiana Maslany, Miranda Richardson, and Clancy Brown also star.

Opening in an unknown number of theatres (I’m expecting 200-300 with a wide expansion one week later), I'm not expecting much from this attempt at awards, despite strong reviews and a positive Toronto response, and Lionsgate doesn't seem to either, as they've also got better prospects in Wonderstruck, Last Flag Flying, and Wonder all coming shortly. The IMDb rating should be strong though as their user base eats up these kinds of movies (freaking Rush was in the Top 250 for a while).

Victoria & Abdul (Focus) - Stephen Frears continues to keep busy with awards fare as he reteams with the star of his 2013 film Philomena, Judi Dench, on this costume drama about the later years of Queen Victoria and her relationship with her servant, Abdul Karim (Ali Fazal). Eddie Izzard, Michael Gambon, and Olivia Williams lend support.

Planned for an expansion on October 6th, Focus has been promoting this one quite decently. With Dench's appeal and Frears having been behind some recent success, the four theatre opening should be a very strong one, despite mixed to negative reviews (though Toronto audiences seemed to have liked it), this weekend. It should manage at least 10 PTA points and a few million in box office. IMDb rating will likely be in the 6’s (the best comparable to this might be Paris Can Wait, mixed reviews and an iffy IMDb rating but strong box office).

Woodshock (A24) - Only three months after the release of It Comes at Night, which was shot in Woodstock, New York, A24 returns with another genre offering with a title that's clearly a pun on the town name that had a famous concert (despite the fact that this one was shot in California). Kirsten Dunst stars in this trippy drama about an emotionally damaged woman who is unable to tell the difference between reality and fantasy as the result of a hallucinogenic drug. Directed by a pair of fashion designers, the Rodarte team of Kate and Laura Mulleavy hopes to become the next Tom Ford (most likely Nocturnal Animals Ford rather than A Single Man Ford here).

Early word has been negative, which shouldn't be too surprising as it's from a sibling team (along with producers, such pairs often tend to make the worst directors, though there are exceptions with both), with the main problems laying in it being all style and often incoherent. However, a lot of the hardcore A24 fans probably won't care (I mean, they've found redeeming values in things like Barely Lethal and Equals). It will most likely manage 1-2 PTA points at best and an IMDb rating under 6.

Box Office: Kingsman, Ninjago, It, American Assassin, does it really matter?

PTA: Victoria & Abdul, Battle of the Sexes, Kingsman, anything can take the last two spots


Next Week: we will see two wide releases, American Made (Universal) and Flatliners (Sony/Columbia) and three limited releases, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (Sony Pictures Classics), Super Dark Times (The Orchard), and Take Every Wave: The Life of Laird Hamilton (IFC). The doldrums are almost over.

Box Office Memories

2007: Resident Evil: Extinction won the weekend with $23.7 million, assuring more sequels in the zombie saga to come. Second was fellow opener Good Luck Chuck with $13.7 million. Taking show was the previous weekend's champ, The Brave One, with $7.3 million (losing 46% of its previous weekend total). Eastern Promises has a nice wide expansion and takes fifth with $5.7 million while the other wide opener, Sydney White, finishes in sixth with $5.2 million. On the PTA scene, Into the Wild trounces the competition with $53,110. Future cult classic The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford took second with $29,562.

1997: The acclaimed Kevin Kline gay-themed comedy In & Out took first with $15 million. David Fincher's The Game fell to second, dropping 37% from opening weekend to finish with $9 million. Third and fourth were a pair of openers, Wishmaster ($6 million) and L.A. Confidential ($5.2 million) while A Thousand Acres premiered to sixth with $2.9 million. Winning the PTA title belt was The Myth of Fingerprints with $10,177 in three theatres (Julianne Moore had a hell of a 1997, didn't she?).

1987: The top ten was entirely based around holdovers as there was only one wide opener that weekend (The Big Town, which was anything but with a weekend under $800,000 in 762 theatres). Tops was Fatal Attraction with $7.7 million (an increase of over 1% from the first weekend). The Principal advanced from fourth the previous weekend to second with $3.5 million. Hellraiser stayed in third with $2.7 million while Stakeout moved to fourth in its seventh weekend with $2.6 million. Rounding out the top five with The Pick-Up Artist with $2.5 million. The PTA crown was given to The Princess Bride with an average of $22,915 in nine theatres. Fatal Attraction was second with a near $10,000 clip.

What do you think, sirs?
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Shrykespeare »

As usual, I find your rather caustic view of current films wildly entertaining, Boosh. I'm glad I picked V&A as my PTA pick of the week already.


Celebrity birthdays:

Rosemary Harris turns 90 on 9/19 (sorry, Marisa Tomei, THIS is what Aunt May should look like)
Danielle Panabaker turns 30 on 9/19 (loved her in Mr. Brooks ... 10 years ago...)
Stephen King turns 70 on 9/21 (dare I say the most famous/successful author of all time?)
Ethan Coen turns 60 on 9/21 (best Coen Bros. movie? Anyone? Anyone?)
Faith Hills turns 50 on 9/21 (not into C/W music)
Tom Felton turns 30 on 9/22 (Malfoy, Malfoy, Malfoy...)
Mary Kay Place turns 70 on 9/23 (remember Being John Malkovich?)
Brad Bird turns 60 on 9/24 (great director, but I remember him most as Edna Mode)
Spencer Treat Clark turns 30 on 9/24 (the kid from Unbreakable/Gladiator is 30??? Shit, I'm old..>)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Buscemi2 »

As I said, I'm not a fan of the reviews but costume dramas usually seem to play well.

Come November, I'm going to probably be a little nicer to the movies (maybe not to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.5 and A Raunchy CBS Sitcom Christmas, but there's some I'll definitely try to see).

The best Coen Brothers movie is definitely Fargo (or maybe The Big Lebowski or maybe even Blood Simple). Never seen the show, though.

And Mary Kay Place was hilarious on Lady Dynamite.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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numbersix
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by numbersix »

Boosch, ever the optimist ;)

Going to go higher on Kingsman. People loved the original, and the weak Summer means this should benefit from a bit of attention, plus the extra cast will help it. I'm thinking mid 40s opening and 120m cume.

Also a little higher on LEGO. Yes, Batman went way under expectations, but there has been virtually no competition in animation since Emoji, and there won't be until November. It's going to hold well.

Agreed on the PTa front, though. Wow, look at those Woodshock reviews!

1. Kingsman 2 - $45m
2. LEGO Ninjago - $32m
3. IT - $28m
4. American Assassin - $7m
5. mother! - 3.5m

PTA: Victoria & Abdul, Battle of the Sexes, Kingsman, LEGO, IT

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official Theater Counts:

LEGO Ninjago - 4,047
Kingsman: Golden Circle - 4,003
Friend Request - 2,569 (who wants to make a bet this has one of the worst openings in history?)
Stronger - 574
Battle of the Sexes - 21
Victoria and Abdul - 4
Woodshock - 3



Next week:

American Made - 3,000
Flatliners - 2,200
Take Every Wave - 1
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Entertainment Studios is actually convinced Friend Request can hit $8-10 million (they've got to make back that $10 million they dropped on Chappaquiddick any way they can). Trackers have it at $4-5 million.

And as I thought, Stronger will expand to at least 600 theatres next week.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Friday and weekend estimates (via Deadline):

Kingsman 2 $15.7 million Friday/$40.6 million weekend (B+ Cinemascore)
It $30 million weekend
Ninjago $6.1 million Friday/$22.3 million (B+ Cinemascore)
American Assassin $1.9 million Friday/$6.1 million weekend
Home Again $1 million Friday/$3.4 million weekend
mother! $1 million Friday/$3 million weekend
The Hitman's Bodyguard $0.5 million Friday/$1.9 million weekend
Friend Request $0.7 million Friday/$1.7 million weekend (C+ Cinemascore)
Stronger $0.5 million Friday/$1.5 million weekend
Wind River $0.4 million Friday/$1.3 million weekend

The Cinemascores for each Lego movie has fallen for each film (The Lego Movie was an A, The Lego Batman Movie was an A-). The next one's going to really need to step it up. The Kingsman score was the same as the first but the hype for this one was much heavier. A big second week drop wouldn't be surprising (even though American Made's now suffering through that plane crash issue).

Friend Request will indeed set a record: worst opening for a movie opening in at least 2,500 theatres (current holder: Victor Frankenstein with $2.5 million).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates (BOM)

Kingsman, $15.3M
It, $9.1M
LEGO Ninjago, $5.8M
American Assassin, $1.8M
Home Again, $1.1M
mother!, $1.0M
Friend Request, $750K


Weekend Projections (BoxOffice):

Kingsman, $40M
It, $29.5M
LEGO Ninjago, $22M
American Assassin, $6M
Home Again, $3.4M
mother!, $3.2M
Friend Request, $1.9M
Hitman's Bodyguard, $1.8M
Stronger, $1.5M
Wind River, $1.2M
Spider-Man, $1.1M
Brad's Status, $1M


PTA:
Battle of the Sexes, $22.8K
Kingsman, $10K
It, $7.4K
LEGO Ninjago, $5.4K

Wow. That's an impressive start for BotS. I have to wonder if I made the mistake dropping it for Victoria & Abdul (no estimate yet).
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Victoria & Abdul had a $56,000 opening day ($14,000 PTA). Should be good for a $35,000 PTA for the weekend.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $39M
4 points - It, $30M ($266M total - all-time highest-grossing horror film)
3 points - The LEGO Ninjago Movie, $21.2M
2 points - American Assassin, $6.2M
1 point - Home Again, $3.3M
mother!, $3.3M
Friend Request, $2.4M
The Hitman's Bodyguard, $1.8M
Stronger, $1.7M
Wind River, $1.3M


PTA:
5 points - Victoria & Abdul
4 points - Battle of the Sexes
3 points - Kingsman: The Golden Circle
2 points - It
1 point - The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Stronger just missed. No word on Woodshock.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: September 22nd-24th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $39.0M (5)
4 points - It, $29.8M ($266.1M total - all-time highest-grossing horror film) (14)
3 points - The LEGO Ninjago Movie, $20.4M (3)
2 points - American Assassin, $6.3M (6)
1 point - mother!, $3.3M (4)
Home Again, $3.2M
Friend Request, $2.0M
Stronger, $1.6M
The Hitman's Bodyguard, $1.6M
Wind River, $1.3M


PTA:
5 points - Victoria & Abdul, $39,711 (5)
4 points - Battle of the Sexes, $24,545 (4)
3 points - Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $9,748 (3)
2 points - It, $7,426 (11)
1 point - The LEGO Ninjago Movie, $5,049 (1)

Woodshock - $4,082
Stronger - $2,813
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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