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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Walleye413 » September 7th, 2017, 1:58 pm

Sorry gentlemen, busy week here at the Walleye house, so this is a little late and not my best work. But that’s okay because the last several weekends have been utter garbage at the Cinemas. And this week – we are here for one thing, and one thing only: It

The Stephen King nightmare novel is finally being given the big screen treatment. There was an above average TV movie made decades ago, but for that generation and a whole new generation who think they know King, this has become the Movie Event of the Fall. Bigger than Kingsman, bigger than Blade Runner. Even bigger than My Little Pony. It is going to scare the crap out of teens and Baby Boomers alike for weeks to come. If you’re not familiar with the story I don’t want to give it away so, just, clowns. Creepy clowns. Like, really creepy. You’ll never look at a 9 year olds birthday party clown the same way. It will win the weekend, and next, the only question is how big will It get? Thanks to the scorched earth that was August, It is going to be monstrous. It won’t hit triple digits, but it should be the biggest horror opener of all time. I predict 85 million for the opening weekend, on it’s way to $175 total. Yeah, that’s bold, but that’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it. If you don’t have It on your slates you need to add it. Today. And if you’re the lucky loser (see what I did there) who got It in the Full year draft, kudos to you my friend.

In what should have been excellent counter-programming we have Home Again opening and landing in second place this weekend. I love Reese Witherspoon, She’s been fantastic since The Man in the Moon, was so good in Pleasantville, and has never lost her mojo in my opinion. In the last few years she’s had one misfire (Hot Pursuit), but her Producer slate and TV work has been incredible. Will it be enough to get people to watch her flirt cute with a man nearly half her age? Again, normally I’d say yes. Home Again should be your classic Fall sleeper pick. Good for 7-8 Top 5 points, a few PTA, and a decent Box Office run. But these are not normal times. Still, I think the above predictions are close, simply because the next weekend doesn’t give us much to be excited about either (Mother and American Assassin won’t play large.) The biggest drawback to this one will be in Box Office, where it just won’t have the legs you’re looking for. The movie, that is. Reese still does. I’d look at it in Ultimate, but you can probably do better elsewhere.

As to the PTA front, we’ve got 4 movies that will all lose to It, but there’s still a few points to be had if you’re feeling risky.

But don't start with the Good Catholic, although in my opinion this looks like the best of the bunch. We’ve got it in the game, but there’s no way of knowing if this movie is actually going to release other than On Demand. If you want to see a decent movie about people of faith struggling with real issues, this looks pretty good. But don’t pick it for your slates.

The Unknown Girl looks really interesting, but it’s French and on 2 screens. That’s usually a bad combo for game purposes, and I see no reason to buck that trend here. I’d stay away.

Trophy looks above average as well, with a mostly unbiased look at the Big game hunting vs. wildlife preserve debate going on in Africa and Asia. I feel like the Documentary crowd saw Dolores last weekend, so I don’t know if this is a good pick-up or not. You can probably do better with the Oscar bait coming out in the next few weeks.

And finally we have Rebel in the Rye, about my son’s least favorite book of all time. Seriously he hated Catcher in the Rye, not that I disagree with him. So, I won’t be seeing this one. Plus, in spite of the good cast and the fact that everyone in Hollywood seems to think Holden Caulfield is an interesting protagonist, I just don’t see this one breaking out either. You might get 4 PTA points but the IMDB rating is a 6. Save your hard earned cash for later.

That’s all I’ve got! Tell me how It is, no way am I seeing that!

Top 5
It
Home Again
Hitman’s Bodyguard
Annabelle Creation
Wind River

PTA
It
Rebel in the Rye
Trophy
Home Again
Unknown Girl
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Shrykespeare » September 7th, 2017, 9:13 pm

Theater counts:

It - 4,103 (that HAS to be a record for a horror film)
Home Again - 2,940
Rebel in the Rye - 4
The Unknown Girl - 2


Next week:

American Assassin - 3,000+
mother! - 2,500
Brad's Status - 4

All I See is You is still credited as going "wide" next week.




Celebrity birthdays:

Toby Jones turned 50 on 9/7 (Who was a better Capote, him or Hoffman? Was that debate ever settled?)
Evan Rachel Wood turned 30 on 9/7 (wow, I remember her as as kid in Practical Magic and Thirteen... why isn't she more famous?)
Heather Thomas turns 60 on 9/8 (hey, if you grew up in the 80's, she was HAWT)
Kate Burton turns 60 on 9/10 (first big movie? Big Trouble in Little China. Which is just cool.)
Happy 50th birthday Mark Ruffalo! (11/22/17)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby numbersix » September 8th, 2017, 3:58 am

Woah, $85m opening? That would be the highest opening for a horror ever, right? And the highest opening for a September film by a long stretch. I was thinking more like 60m, which is still a record-breaker, but I have to admit that the buzz for It has been insane. Given the weak releases over the past fortnight, it kinda guarantees that people are going to want to see this film. But 85m? Who knows. Glad I nabbed it on my yearly draft slate, though.

As for Home Again, I think films like that are struggling these days, so I don't see it hitting 10m this weekend, despite it being a good counter-programming opportunity.

PTA is a strange one. None of those titles stand out. I think Trophy has the best chance as animal rights activists will love it. Rebel in the Rye has awful reviews, which will kill it.

Top 5
1. It - $70m
2. Home Again - $9m
3. Hitman’s Bodyguard - $4.5m
4. Annabelle Creation - $3m
5. Wind River - $3m

PTA: It, Trophy, Unknown Girl, Rebel in the Rye, Dolores
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Buscemi2 » September 8th, 2017, 4:43 am

I'm going to say $75 million. A number of theatres in Florida will be closed due to the hurricane and horror is usually frontloaded.

And Home Again is a bomb. Bad reviews, Witherspoon being unable to recover from Hot Pursuit (did anyone's career recover from this one?), and an awful trailer makes one wonder why this is getting almost 3,000 theatres. Also, can we stop trying to make Nat Wolff happen? He makes Jai Courtney seem dimensional.

And I'll say It takes PTA as well.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Walleye413 » September 9th, 2017, 12:17 am

So when I said 85 million, who would have guessed that it might be low?!
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Shrykespeare » September 9th, 2017, 12:36 am

Walleye413 wrote:So when I said 85 million, who would have guessed that it might be low?!


According to whom?
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Buscemi2 » September 9th, 2017, 6:21 am

The numbers I saw put It at $47 million Friday ($13.5 million coming from previews) and $101 million for the weekend. Looks like killer clowns can withstand natural disasters (the Cinemascore was a B+ though so it might drop like most horror films in future weeks).

One theatre here is having to add screenings due to demand (interestingly, when I bought my ticket for an IMAX screening at another theatre on Sunday, no other tickets had sold).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby transformers2 » September 9th, 2017, 8:17 am

I'd like to thank everyone in the B Division of The FY League for allowing It to slip to bottom of the 3rd round. You are all A+ Samaritans for providing such a selfless act of charity for an asshole like me.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Shrykespeare » September 9th, 2017, 1:01 pm

Friday Estimates;

It, $51M :shock: :shock: :shock:
Home Again, $3.1M
The Hitman's Bodyguard, $1.4M
Annabelle: Creation, $1.2M
Wind River, $1M


Weekend Projections:

It, $105M
Home Again, $8.8M
Hitman's Bodyguard, $4.7M
Annabelle: Creation, $3.9M (looks like this will easily crack $100M)
Wind River, $3.3M
Leap!, $2.8M
Dunkirk, $1.9M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $1.8M
Logan Lucky, $1.7M
The Emoji Movie, $975K

PTA:

No word on any of the indie releases, but It is gonna pull $25K. I wonder if any other film will beat $5K.


Warner Bros. / New Line report this morning that IT scored a massive $51 million opening day on Friday, including Thursday night’s $13.5 million. $3.05 million of the overall day take came from IMAX.

IT has blown away multiple records after just one day in release, including opening weekend benchmarks for September (passing Hotel Transylvania 2‘s $48.5 million weekend two years ago) and the horror genre itself (beating Paranormal Activity 3‘s $52.6 million opening weekend in October 2011). By comparison, IT‘s first day also crushes the strong horror performances of The Conjuring 2 ($16.4 million opening day in June 2016) and Insidious: Chapter 2 ($20.2 million from a Friday the 13th release in September 2013).

The studio notes the following records broken so far:

Largest Thursday Pre-Show for a Horror Movie
Largest Thursday Pre-Show for an R-Rated Movie
Largest Thursday Pre-Show for a September Movie
Largest Friday for a September Movie
Largest # of Locations for a R-Rated Movie

Additionally, the New Line has blown past their achievements with more records to come:

Largest Thursday Pre-Show
Largest Opening Friday

Projections remain challenging given the unprecedented and — until recently — unexpected nature of this high-level performance, but for now, Boxoffice is expecting IT to crack the $100 million weekend threshold for an absolutely stunning new September record.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Shrykespeare » September 10th, 2017, 2:17 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - It, $117.1M :shock: :shock: :shock:
4 points - Home Again, $9.0M
3 points - The Hitman's Bodyguard, $4.8M
2 points - Annabelle: Creation, $4.0M
1 point - Wind River, $3.2M
Leap!, $2.5M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $2.0M
Dunkirk, $1.9M
Logan Lucky, $1.8M
The Emoji Movie, $1.1M



PTA:
5 points - It
4 points - Rebel in the Rye
3 points - Dolores
2 points - Trophy
1 point - Home Again
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby undeadmonkey » September 11th, 2017, 10:58 am

I figured IT would be huge, but this is ridiculous. The estimates have been upped to $123M this morning.

I wonder if the clown sightings of 2016 helped wet people's appetite for clowns.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Buscemi2 » September 11th, 2017, 11:26 am

It goes further than that (besides, I think that whole sightings thing was really just juggalos doing their daily routine of being weird, listening to bad rap music, and drinking Faygo). King's novel and the miniseries changed how the general public sees clowns (can you remember the last time we've seen a sympathetic portrayal of clowns?). Also, the film had been in development for some time (you should see all of the actors who were considered for or auditioned for Pennywise).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » September 11th, 2017, 12:36 pm

WB's marketing team definitely deserves a raise for all they did for IT. It started strong with that great trailer, and they never let up. The viral marketing, the IT experience in LA, great targeted TV spots, etc
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Walleye413 » September 11th, 2017, 4:49 pm

Agreed. It's weird what a good movie with good marketing can do :)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 9/9

Postby Shrykespeare » September 11th, 2017, 7:15 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - It, $123.4M (5)
4 points - Home Again, $8.6M (4)
3 points - The Hitman's Bodyguard, $4.8M (18)
2 points - Annabelle: Creation, $4.0M (17)
1 point - Wind River, $3.1M (6)
Leap!, $2.4M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $2.0M
Dunkirk, $1.9M
Logan Lucky, $1.8M
The Emoji Movie, $1.1M



PTA:
5 points - It, $30,076 (5)
4 points - Dolores, $9,729 (9)
3 points - Rebel in the Rye, $9,492 (3)
2 points - The Unknown GIrl, $6,739 (2)
1 point - Trophy, $3,522 (1)
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