Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 18th-20th

[Buscemi2]

This is utility infielder Buscemi, a late replacement to do this week's lineup after a lack of feedback from the originally scheduled starter. This week, we have two wide releases, both comedies, and three limited releases fresh from Sundance and into your mouth (though you'll need to pay your $12 first and you may want to consider a small popcorn and Coke Zero instead of attempting to eat a DCP).

Last Week

Annabelle: Creation trounced the competition with a $35 million weekend, following the typical horror formula of a strong Friday before weak word-of-mouth sets in. Dunkirk continues to hold strong in second with $10.9 million in its fourth weekend. Its total now stands at $153 million with an outside shot of $200 million. Third was The Nut Job 2, having the worst 4,000 theatre opening ever with $8.3 million. Falling to fourth after winning last weekend, The Dark Tower drops 59% to finish with a $7.8 million weekend. Rounding out the top five was Girls Trip at $6.5 million, which is now less than $3 million away from hitting the $100 million mark (speaking of $100 million, Baby Driver hit the century mark on Sunday). The week's other new wide opener, The Glass Castle, took ninth with $4.7 million.

On the limited front, Ingrid Goes West was the surprise winner, thanks to a strong marketing campaign by Neon and decent reviews, with a $45,100 average in three theatres. A24's Good Time also played well with an average of $31,275. Both have expansions planned this week and next. The Trip to Spain, Wind River, and Annabelle: Creation were 3-4-5 while The Only Living Boy in New York bombed with a $3,631 PTA in a 15 theatre opening.

This Week

You'll Always Be My "Bodyguard"

The big movie this week is The Hitman's Bodyguard (Lionsgate/Summit), opening in 3,000 theatres. Directed by Patrick Hughes (The Expendables 3) and produced by Millennium Films, this comedy stars Ryan Reynolds as a federal agent tasked to protect a notorious hitman (Samuel L. Jackson) as he is extradited to England to face the International Court of Justice. Of course, they hate each other and neither one wants to be paired together. However, they must set aside their differences and fight obstacles and an evil dictator (Gary Oldman) to survive and finish the job. The film also stars Salma Hayek and Richard E. Grant.

I haven't seen anything for this film but Lionsgate has been holding word-of-mouth screenings via AMC and Cinemark to much success. However, this strategy did not help King Arthur: Legend of the Sword back in May. Also not helping is Reynolds' limited box office success in films where he isn't Deadpool or a comic book character (Life crashed and burned back in March). But with the lack of successful comedies this summer, maybe there may be one that just comes out and surprises us. I don't think this one's it.

Box Office Potential: I'm going to say the film will open to $12 million and finish with $32 million. It's a Ryan Reynolds film where he's not a superhero and these rarely ever do well (there was Safe House but that was sold as a Denzel Washington film). You'd be better off with a late September or October title.

Born "Lucky"

The other wide release this week is Logan Lucky (Bleecker Street/Fingerprint), opening in 2,500 theatres. This is Steven Soderbergh's comeback project, after having retired for a brief period to work in television and on other people's projects. This is also his first project as distributor, as he will be using Bleecker Street (who is no stranger to this format, having handled titles for Netflix, Amazon, and LD Entertainment in the past using a rent-a-distributor method) to test a new distribution method that allows for smaller films to compete in national rollouts for a fraction of the cost of prints and advertising. Will it work? The answer after the premise.

The premise focuses on an unlucky family (Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, Riley Keough) that hatches a plan to rob the Charlotte Motor Speedway during the Coca-Cola 600 (one of the biggest races in NASCAR, the premier auto racing organization in North America). If successful, the heist would make the Logan Unlucky into...what the title states. Along with a master thief turned escaped convict (Daniel Craig), the plans are set. However, nothing is what it seems (do they ever?). Soderbergh's supporting cast is stacked, ranging from familiar names (Katherine Waterson, Katie Holmes), unexpected casting choices (Seth MacFarlane, Hilary Swank), arthouse darling Macon Blair, and even some cameos from actual NASCAR drivers.

Bleecker Street is one of the better companies with independent films but they have never handled a film this big. This is where Soderbergh's work comes in. Soderbergh believes that this is a film that can reach out to a wide audience and though early word has been positive, it just might be too offbeat for the NASCAR crowd and too Southern-fried for Soderbergh's fans. In addition, the distribution platform is mostly going to be regionalized, with most of the theatres being in the South and Southwest and limited presence in larger markets. With lower ticket prices in those areas, that could impact the end result. This is a wild card.

Box Office Potential: I'm going to say that it makes $7 million this weekend and finishes at $18 million. Any future productions from Fingerprint Releasing (like that one Soderbergh shot on an iPhone, one of the most annoying trends in film today, in secret) will more than likely be limited releases or VOD.

Arthouse Class 101

In this week's Arthouse Class 101, we will focus on three limited releases.

Gook (Samuel Goldwyn) - this film, shot in black-and-white, takes place in 1992 and focuses on the relationship between two Korean-American brothers, their shoe store, and their relationship with a young African-American girl as the film focuses on one day in April. The two brothers, one business-minded, the other laid back, go about their day when the verdict of the Rodney King trial is read. Suddenly, the three must band together to survive and protect the store as the riots rock their lives.

The film played at Sundance and though it took a while to get distribution (most likely due to the title, which is bound to make some uncomfortable just saying it), early word isn't too bad. However, I don't expect much success outside of the big cities. It might be worth a few points opening weekend but probably not much else after expanding. Which is too bad as it sounds like an interesting film both in subject and stylistically.

Opening in an undetermined number of theatres, I wouldn't expect anything more than a couple of points.

Patti Cake$ (Fox Searchlight) - from 1992 Los Angeles, we move to present day New Jersey for another movie from Sundance. Fox Searchlight paid $7 million for this comedy/drama and the trailer has been plastered with raves from major publications and websites. But will it be the breakout Fox expects it to be (a wider expansion is planned for August 30th) or will it fall into theatres with a collective thud like Step did earlier this month?

The plot focuses on young Polish-American Patricia Dombrowski aka Patti Cake$ aka Killa P, a girl big in both size and dreams as she seeks to leave the humdrum existence of a go-nowhere town under the shadow of the Big Apple and become a famous rapper. Along the way, she faces both encouragement and opposition from those around her. Basically, it's 8 Mile but more comedic.

Fox has been doing a very good job promoting this film, running the trailers with some major studio films and plastering those pull quotes on advertising, but it also faces a bit of an obstacle. Will a rap-themed movie with no stars play outside the big cities? Does it risk becoming less of a feel-good story and more of a farce as Patti fights for her wishes? Who is the audience that will justify the money spent to buy the film? In the end, early weekends should be strong (especially in New York) but I don't see the final take justifying the cost. It should break even on home video/VOD and pay cable though.

Opening in 14 theatres, the film should pull in somewhere between 4 and 7 PTA points.

Crown Heights (IFC/Amazon) - a late inclusion in this week's column, this film was originally set to open wide before being changed to a limited release. The one week move-up seems to suggest there is a wide expansion still in the cards.

Anyway, this was the film that won the Audience Award at Sundance this year. Based on an episode of NPR's This American Life (of which two other films, Unaccompanied Minors from 2006 and Sleepwalk with Me from 2012, also began its origins as segments from the long-running radio series), the film focuses on a man wrongly accused of murder and the fight by his best friend to prove his innocence.

So one might think that the Sundance win combined with the NPR pedigree might lead to it getting lots of PTA points and a few million in box office. Not so fast. Early critical word has been very mixed, with some reviews suggesting it tries to cover too much in its 94 minute run time or that the story would have worked better as a documentary while others praise the performances. In addition, marketing has been close to non-existent, with a trailer only being released a month before opening (and even then, it doesn't seem to be running in theatres). This could very well die a quick death outside of Brooklyn.

Opening in three theatres, I'm going say that it gets 3 PTA points at most (I'm not too good at these estimates, so bear with me).

Box Office:
1. Annabelle: Creation $14 million
2. The Hitman's Bodyguard $12 million
3. Logan Lucky $7 million
4. Dunkirk $6.5 million
5. The Nut Job 2 $4 million

Next week: we have three wide releases, All Saints (Sony/Affirm), Birth of the Dragon (Focus/BH Tilt), and Leap! (Weinstein), plus two limited releases, Beach Rats (Neon), and Tulip Fever (Weinstein). Don't you wish it could be October already?

Past Box Office Memories:

2007: Superbad took the weekend with $33.1 million and continued the rise of Seth Rogen as the current's generation Adam Sandler as well as launching Jonah Hill as a star in the making (Michael Cera less so). Last week's champ, Rush Hour 3, shed 57% to $21.3 million (still more than The Dark Tower's opening weekend). Third was The Bourne Ultimatum at $19.9 million. Other openers included The Invasion, being a massive flop at $6 million, and The Last Legion, dying harder than Bruce Willis's enthusiasm for anything at $2.7 million. Hits in limited release included Death at a Funeral, making $1.3 million in 260 theatres, and The 11th Hour, hitting a $15,213 PTA in a four theatre opening (Superbad had the third highest PTA that weekend).

1997: In a crowded weekend, Ridley Scott's G.I. Jane won the war with $11.1 million. Second place with Brett Ratner's debut Money Talks with $10.7 million. Third was Air Force One, still kicking in its fifth weekend, with $7.9 million, barely beating opener Mimic, which took fourth with $7.8 million. Leave It to Beaver was left with $3.3 million, A Smile Like Yours was left unhappy with $1.2 million in semi-wide release, and Masterminds couldn't muster more than $1 million. The Full Monty was the big hit in limited release with a PTA over $24,000 in its second weekend.

1987: Stakeout repeated in first after rising to the occasion a week earlier with a $5.6 million weekend (dropping just 0.3% from the week before). Cheech Marin's Born in East L.A. placed with $4.4 million while Can't Buy Me Love took show with $4 million (falling 15% from the week before). Fourth place was the only other wide opener, Dirty Dancing, with $3.9 million. However, things were only heating up for this film about a teenage girl's summer dream in the Catskills (interestingly, the film was reissued in the 1997 weekend I covered above). The PTA star was The Big Easy, which took in over $11,000 in a 32 theatre engagement one weekend before a wide expansion.

Thoughts? Anyone, anyone, Bueller, Bueller?

[Walleye413]

Great write up. Love the trip down memory lane as well. Especially since I can say I saw most of those movies in theaters

I think you're low on the openers for this weekend, although box office has been so down it could be another downer. I'm thinking High teens for Hitman and Low teens for Logan. Wait, is Wolverine in this one?

[numbersix]

Great article, Boosch.

I also think you're low on the wides, but not by much. I think Reynolds has been doing well with promoting Hitman's Bodyguard, and the tone seems to be something Deadpool fans will enjoy. It won't be huge, but I could see high teens.

Also Logan Lucky is opening with a new experimental model, and although Bleecker are contributing advice, the money is coming from foreign sales, so you could see a large chunk of change pushing this film. The positive response to the trailer, great reviews, and the proof that Aviron and Entertainment can overperform suggests that this could do well.

Agreed on the limited releases, though.

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard $17 million
2. Annabelle: Creation $14 million
3. Logan Lucky $10 million
4. Dunkirk $7.5 million
5. The Nut Job 2 $4 million

PTA: Patti Cakes, Ingrid Goes West, Good Time, Crown Heights, The Trip to Spain

[Buscemi2]

I actually saw The Invasion and The Last Legion in a theatre (and Leave it to Beaver).

I've been seeing projections of The Hitman's Bodyguard in mid to high teens and even $20 million but audiences only seem to like Reynolds as a superhero. I feel that the industry mistakes his following as an excuse to cast him in every kind of film possible (as part of Hollywood's lack of originality in casting, on a related note, how many Bella Thorne films remain unreleased?). You just can't expect Deadpool numbers when Reynolds isn't Deadpool. In addition, reviews haven't been very positive and there's been a trend lately suggesting that audiences are reading reviews again (personally, I don't believe it but food for thought).

And even with James Bond and Kylo Ren in the cast, Soderbergh is shooting himself in the foot by essentially giving Logan Lucky a regional release. These kinds of releases haven't worked in the megaplex age and this is not the kind of film to do it with. In addition, we learned from Detroit and The Nut Job 2 that super-saturating a film in a market that isn't very interested in said film doesn't work (you didn't see this happen with Kidnap or 47 Meters Down, which I believe helped demand). And in addition, Soderbergh is doing it in markets with lower ticket prices. However, I am interested about if drive-ins will be getting it and what the second feature will be (distributor logic would suggest Megan Leavey but it could be paired with any newer movie, next week I expect the return engagement of Cars 3 to be paired with Logan).

In the end, it's going to be a while before things improve. The next two weeks will be fringe wide and semi-wide titles, reissues (Cars 3, Baby Driver, Wonder Woman), and some one week limited wonders, followed by a potential blockbuster in It and some more bombs. I'm already sick of the Kingsman trailer showing before everything and Ninjago look like it has none of the appeal of the last two Lego movies. September 29th looks like a breath of fresh air but does another Tom Cruise midlife crisis vehicle and a remake few asked for really look that way?

October 6th is when things will turn around. Blade Runner should open well before people realize that a sequel wasn't needed (from seeing the trailer again, it reminds me a lot of the Ghost in the Shell remake that crashed and burned back in March) while I believe the Box Office trackers have My Little Pony all wrong (I can't believe they forgot about all the Bronies that will see it multiple times, this is as if it's their Force Awakens). I'm firmly convinced it's going to break the October record and we'll see more creepy fandom movies coming in the next few years (ASMR: The Movie?).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

If AMC doesn't pull out of MoviePass, I think Hitman and Logan can both see inflated openings as people try out their new service on something mildly interesting they wouldn't see otherwise.

If anyone didn't know, MoviePass dropped their price to $10 a month and thousands signed up, crashing their website and app entirely yesterday. They're still both down/laggy today due to traffic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... l-you-want

[W]

If AMC doesn't pull out of MoviePass, I think Hitman and Logan can both see inflated openings as people try out their new service on something mildly interesting they wouldn't see otherwise.

If anyone didn't know, MoviePass dropped their price to $10 a month and thousands signed up, crashing their website and app entirely yesterday. They're still both down/laggy today due to traffic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... l-you-want

AMC did pull out. I signed back up and there are zero theaters in my area. We have only 2 AMCs. I looked for the other AMC I go to and see only independent theaters in that area. So it's basically useless for me unless they include AMC.

[Ron Burgundy]

Good stuff boosh.

I think Logan Lucky will win the weekend here. Ive heard some glowing reviews. Im absolutely killing myself for taking The Nut Job ahead of it in the draft...

I reckon you're about right with The Hitman's Bodyguard, although im very much looking forward to watching it.

[Shrykespeare]

Great column, Boosh. I am glad you're in the regular rotation, honestly, because I love your very detailed and unique perspective on things. You certainly seem to have insider knowledge that few of us possess!

Celebrity birthdays:

Yours Truly turns 48 on 8/18 (yeah, I know it's neither a milestone nor am I really a celebrity, but hey, it's only a matter of time before my books make the NYT bestseller list, right? RIGHT??)

Denis Leary turns 60 on 8/18
Gerald McRaney turns 70 on 8/19
Ray Wise turns 70 on 8/20

[transformers2]

Good write-up Boosh. Like six and Walleye, I also expect both Hitman's Bodyguard and Logan Lucky to open a bit higher than your projections (I'm thinking $17-18 mil for Hitman's Bodyguard and around $10 mil for Logan Lucky).

Also I'm curious how high do you think My Little Pony is going to open? You've been talking about it like it's going to hit $100+ mil by the time Saturday rolls around.

[Buscemi2]

I'm thinking it could open to $55-60 million and top out at $150-170 million. Yes, it's Lionsgate handling an animated film and the marketing hasn't been too great (but with a franchise like this one, do you need to do marketing?) but you can't underestimate the audience that's going to see it. They eat, sleep, and crap those ponies.

The development of this film might be one of the few times Hollywood got the merging of cinema and Internet culture right.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

If AMC doesn't pull out of MoviePass, I think Hitman and Logan can both see inflated openings as people try out their new service on something mildly interesting they wouldn't see otherwise.

If anyone didn't know, MoviePass dropped their price to $10 a month and thousands signed up, crashing their website and app entirely yesterday. They're still both down/laggy today due to traffic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... l-you-want

AMC did pull out. I signed back up and there are zero theaters in my area. We have only 2 AMCs. I looked for the other AMC I go to and see only independent theaters in that area. So it's basically useless for me unless they include AMC.

They haven't yet. I think this is the latest updated list of theaters: https://www.moviepasslocations.com/

The AMCs in my area show as available.

[W]

I guess through the app it won't show any that aren't online ticketing until you get your Moviepass credit card. If you could get anyone at all to answer your questions it would help. Two days ago you were able to get someone on a chat. Now it says "Visit our FAQs."

[transformers2]

I'm thinking it could open to $55-60 million and top out at $150-170 million. Yes, it's Lionsgate handling an animated film and the marketing hasn't been too great (but with a franchise like this one, do you need to do marketing?) but you can't underestimate the audience that's going to see it. They eat, sleep, and crap those ponies.

The development of this film might be one of the few times Hollywood got the merging of cinema and Internet culture right.

Damn that's bold. Obviously the Bronies are going to come out in full force, but I'm not sure if little kids are going to give a shit about it. I think it's the biggest wild card of the entire fall and I wouldn't be surprised if it opened to $6 or 30+ mil.

[transformers2]

If AMC doesn't pull out of MoviePass, I think Hitman and Logan can both see inflated openings as people try out their new service on something mildly interesting they wouldn't see otherwise.

If anyone didn't know, MoviePass dropped their price to $10 a month and thousands signed up, crashing their website and app entirely yesterday. They're still both down/laggy today due to traffic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... l-you-want

AMC did pull out. I signed back up and there are zero theaters in my area. We have only 2 AMCs. I looked for the other AMC I go to and see only independent theaters in that area. So it's basically useless for me unless they include AMC.

They haven't yet. I think this is the latest updated list of theaters: https://www.moviepasslocations.com/

The AMCs in my area show as available.

There's a theater in my area that closed last September listed on there, so I'm not sure how accurate that list is. Both of the theaters I frequent are AMC's, so I'm going to wait for confirmation that they haven't dropped out from the plan before I sign up.

[Buscemi2]

I'm thinking it could open to $55-60 million and top out at $150-170 million. Yes, it's Lionsgate handling an animated film and the marketing hasn't been too great (but with a franchise like this one, do you need to do marketing?) but you can't underestimate the audience that's going to see it. They eat, sleep, and crap those ponies.

The development of this film might be one of the few times Hollywood got the merging of cinema and Internet culture right.

Damn that's bold. Obviously the Bronies are going to come out in full force, but I'm not sure if little kids are going to give a shit about it. I think it's the biggest wild card of the entire fall and I wouldn't be surprised if it opened to $6 or 30+ mil.

I estimate there's 20 million of them in the US and close to all of them will see it. But I still see little girls also seeing it. In a way, the film reminds me of Gone Girl: all the hardcore Fincher fans came opening weekend but it kept going as the intended audience (fans of the book and older audiences) showed in later weeks. Also, there's always that one family film that takes off in the fall and I can't see Ninjago being it.