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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/11

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/11

Postby numbersix » August 8th, 2017, 9:04 am

Well, looks like cinema is going down the toilet. This summer is 10% behind last year, and AMC Cinemas have experienced a huge slump in their shares. Only Wonder Woman truly exceeded expectations and held the box office aloft, but one person can only do so much. Will August offer salvation? Well not if The Dark Tower was its main hope. This week seems more promising, but only just.




I’m going to be nice about it because Jason Blum complimented my film A Dark Song, but Annabelle: Creation (Warner Bros) is the fourth film in the Conjuring universe, so you know what to expect. This one is a prequel, exploring the origin of that incredibly creepy doll (I can’t wait for the crossover Annabelle Vs Chucky, coming to a bargain bucket near you). Taking the reins is David Sandberg, who made the surprise hit Lights Out last year. Now, horror sequels tend to have diminishing returns, and the first Annabelle opened high but had awful legs. You’d expect this film to do half of the first, but reviews have been stronger, and horror this summer has been weak sauce. So at worst you’re going to see this open in the mid 20s and probably close in the mid 60s. That’s not bad for $11-13 in BO, and for $11-15 in Ultimate you’re going to get at least 9 T5, 1 PTA, and an IMDB score in the 6s. They’re solid figures all round, so I suggest grabbing this.




The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road) is here because the first surprised us all in 2014 by opening to $19m and earning a total of $64m. In the wasteland that is January. Naturally, a sequel was squeezed out and again it’s getting released in a weak weekend. Can lightning strike twice, can this film nut harder? While it’s unlikely to make as much, the underperformance of The Emoji Movie and the lack of direct competition outside of Leap (a future dud) suggests this could do fine, opening to around $14m and closing over $40m. It’s tempting to pick up in BO for $9 or $8, but only if you think it’ll fare better than predicted. In Ultimate I predict it’ll hoard 6 T5, no PTA, an IMDB in the low 6s. You might get better for $9/10.




Last, and definitely least, is the indie drama The Glass Castle (Lionsgate). Written and directed by Destin Cretton (who made Short Term 12), this film is about a dysfunctional family living off the grid in 1970s USA. It has an impressive cast, most notably Brie Larson in her first lead dramatic role since winning the Oscar for Room, as well as Woody Harrelson and Naomi Watts. However, the premise has been done before, such as in the recent Captain Fantastic, and reviews have been cold. With Lionsgate putting it out in 1400 theatres, don’t expect much from this in Ultimate, and you’d be lucky to see this close with $15m total. Let this film stay off your grid.


And now we come to the real battle. This week sees four limited releases hitting our screens. And while that usually means some will evidently fail and others obviously succeed, for this particular weekend they all are potential hits. So rather than look at each individually I’m going to lump them together in my PTA Thunderdome. So let me introduce the Indie Warriors:



The Only Living Boy in New York (Roadside) is directed by Marc “Spiderman’s” Webb, who is hot off the success of Gifted earlier this year, and is about a college graduate who sleeps with his father’s mistress. Kate Beckinsale, Pierce Brosnan and Jeff Bridges feature.



Ingrid Goes West (Neon) stars Aubrey Plaza as a mental stalker who is obsessed with an Instagram star, and premiered in Sundance this year.



Good Time (A24) is a crime drama starring Robert Pattinson (who didn’t have to jerk off a dog, apparently), which opened in Cannes last May.



The Trip to Italy (IFC) is the third film featuring Steve Coogan and comedian Rob Brydon as versions of themselves as they go on another culinary adventure while attempting to see who does the best Roger Moore impersonation.

So, who’s going to win? All the films cost roughly the same in Ultimate, and all are probably not worth the risk in BO. Theatre counts are going to play a huge role, so keep an eye out for them. And the expansion of Wind River is also something to consider.

A few weeks ago, you’d be right to put your money on TOLBINY, but its absence from major fests and the poor reviews are going to be detrimental to this drama. If it picks up a single PTA point it’ll be exceeding expectations. So Avoid. Ingrid Goes West got a good response from Sundance, and Aubrey Plaza’s profile is on the up. But Neon have recently been launching films into 30 or so theatres, so watch out for that trap. Also, their expansions tend to have weak results.

IFC have fared well with the Trip films so far, especially the last film. While the third film probably won’t do as well, its shock ending will create some buzz, so you could still see this have a PTA of over 10K from the 2 screens it’s coming out on. But my money’s on A24, those indie heroes, who are already promoting the unique aspects of their film (such as the soundtrack). And reviews are strong for this one. So Good Time, which is out in NY and LA this week, could end up with 7-9 PTA points, The Trip to Spain maybe 5-6, and Ingrid up to 4.



My predictions for the weekend

1. Annabelle Creation - $27m
2. The Nut Job 2 - $14m
3. Dunkirk- $12m
4. Girls Trip - $7.5m
5. The Dark Tower - $7.4m

- The Glass Castle - $5m

PTA: Good Time, The Trip to Spain, Wind River, Ingrid Goes West, Annabelle 2

Next week Daniel TMG, whoever he is, will look at a mere 4 (amateurs) films, namely action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and experimental wide release (and dyslexia-inducing) Logan Lucky, and limited releases Patti Cakes and Gook.
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Re: IX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/11

Postby Buscemi2 » August 8th, 2017, 9:17 am

It's obvious everything's being saved for the fall. The September stuff doesn't look good (mother! looks like a bomb, American Made gave everything away in the trailer, and Inhumans further reveals itself to be the bomb of the month with an announced run time of just 75 minutes) but October 6th will be a monster.

I don't even think The Nut Job 2 hits $10 million. It's a sequel no one asked for and I don't think anyone remembers the first. In addition, Open Road's been rather muted in its promotional campaign due to the planned sale to Tang Capital (I'm expecting the company to be merged with IM Global and all future releases to be their productions).

The Glass Castle needed good reviews to break out but early word is mixed. I think it will fall to $4 million for the weekend.

I agree with Good Time taking the PTA crown. Excellent word and it's from the A24 machine. I don't really like Ingrid Goes West's chances though. Though Neon (whom I believe is still opening in just three theatres this weekend before a planned wide expansion on the 25th) has been pushing it heavily (the Drafthouse here's been promoting it out the ass), Aubrey Plaza is not a movie star and this just looks like another failed attempt to push her weirdness as being cute and funny (besides, there are funnier people that can actually carry a movie that haven't gotten the chances Plaza keeps getting). The Little Hours might have done well in limited release but that was an ensemble cast headed by Alison Brie (that and its distributor bet the farm on it). Also, movies about the Internet almost never make money.

Speaking of Neon, one might want to avoid Beach Rats. No marketing whatsoever on that one. And I have no idea what it's about (the title makes it sound like some sort of Fort Tilden thing, that barely-released Girls-influenced movie that SXSW loved a few years back).

I do agree on The Only Living Boy in New York. It's a moldy script (it's been bouncing around for a decade) from a hack writer made by a hack director who got lucky with one film eight years ago. Amazon only seemed to put it out of its misery by producing it as cheaply and quickly as possible.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » August 8th, 2017, 1:06 pm

numbersix wrote: can this film nut harder?


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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby Shrykespeare » August 8th, 2017, 7:54 pm

Great column, Six. Love the Thunderdome reference. I had thought about picking Only Living Boy, but I will defer to your genius.


Celebrity Birthdays:

Dustin Hoffman turned 80 on 8/8
Lindsay Sloane turned 40 on 8/8
Katie Leung turned 30 on 8/8
Melanie Griffith turns 60 on 8/9
Happy 70th birthday Kevin Kline! (10/24/17)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby transformers2 » August 8th, 2017, 8:09 pm

Great stuff as usual six. I think Ingrid Goes West might do a little better than 4th in PTA since its only opening in 3 theaters, but I agree that it could absolutely die quickly if Neon expands it too wide next weekend (although I hope it comes to Boston next weekend because I've been dying to see it since the reviews came out of Sundance).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby numbersix » August 9th, 2017, 3:05 am

Shrykespeare wrote:Great column, Six. Love the Thunderdome reference.


Do you watch Rick and Morty, Shryke? Big Thubderdome reference in last week's episode.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby Buscemi2 » August 9th, 2017, 4:31 am

Or as I like to call it, "Drunk Scientist and Dumbass Grandson".

I don't get the appeal. Why can't Adult Swim make more episodes of Infomercials (the best anthology show on television now that American Crime's gone)?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby Ron Burgundy » August 9th, 2017, 5:26 am

Holy crapsticks! If I didn't notice I was out of the game a few months ago, I certainly am now.

I for one hope cinema is NOT going down ze toilet
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby Buscemi2 » August 9th, 2017, 5:30 am

As I said, October's going to save us all. It usually does.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » August 9th, 2017, 10:49 am

numbersix wrote:
Shrykespeare wrote:Great column, Six. Love the Thunderdome reference.


Do you watch Rick and Morty, Shryke? Big Thubderdome reference in last week's episode.


You mean the Blooddome?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby Buscemi2 » August 10th, 2017, 1:34 am

According to Box Office Mojo, The Nut Job 2 is getting 4,000 theatres (making it only the fourth independent film to hit that mark). Either Open Road is giving this one a very favorable booking agreement (much like Collide, where theatres were allowed to split screens right away and were only required to play it for one week) or a lot of theatres are dropping The Emoji Movie.

And this is why zoning restrictions are important. Otherwise, you'll have every theatre running the same movie (next week, be prepared to see more booking shenanigans with Logan Lucky).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby Buscemi2 » August 10th, 2017, 9:09 pm

Theatre counts:

The Nut Job 2 - 4,003
Annabelle: Creation - 3,502
The Glass Castle - 1,461
The Only Living Boy in New York - 15
Good Time - 4
Ingrid Goes West - 3
The Trip to Spain - 3

An Inconvenient Sequel expands to 556, Step expands to 185, Menashe expands to 47, and Wind River expands to 41 theatres (looks like the wide expansion will now happen at a later date, possibly September 1st).

Next week:

The Hitman's Bodyguard - 3,000
Logan Lucky - 2,500 (mainly in the South and Southwest)
Patti Cake$ - 14
Crown Heights (yes, it's opening a week earlier than initially announced) - 3
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby transformers2 » August 10th, 2017, 9:21 pm

Buscemi2 wrote:Theatre counts:

The Nut Job 2 - 4,003
Annabelle: Creation - 3,502
The Glass Castle - 1,461
The Only Living Boy in New York - 15
Good Time - 4
Ingrid Goes West - 3
The Trip to Spain - 3

An Inconvenient Sequel expands to 556, Step expands to 185, Menashe expands to 47, and Wind River expands to 41 theatres (looks like the wide expansion will now happen at a later date, possibly September 1st).

Next week:

The Hitman's Bodyguard - 3,000
Logan Lucky - 2,500 (mainly in the South and Southwest)
Patti Cake$ - 14
Crown Heights (yes, it's opening a week earlier than initially announced) - 3


FUCK YES THE AUGUST 25th FILM TOTAL IS NOW DOWN TO 46!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby Shrykespeare » August 12th, 2017, 1:08 pm

Friday Estimates

Annabelle: Creation, $15M
Dunkirk, $3.1M
Nut Job 2: Nut Harder, $3M
Dark Tower, $2.3M
Girls Trip, $2M
Emoji Movie, $1.9M
Spider-Man: $1.7M
The Glass Castle, $1.6M
Kidnap, $1.5M
Atomic Blonde, $1.3M



Weekend Projections:

Annabelle, $32.5M
Dunkirk, $11M
Nut Harder, $8M
Dark Tower, $7.4M
Girls Trip, $6.4M
Emoji Movie, $6.1M
Spider-Man, $5.8M
Kidnap, $5.1M
Glass Castle, $4.9M
Atomic Blonde, $4.3M


PTA:

Wind River, $13K
Annabelle, $9K
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Postby W » August 12th, 2017, 7:57 pm

Deadline is reporting $51 K average for Ingrid and a $39.8 K average for Good Time.
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