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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/14

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/14

Postby numbersix » July 12th, 2017, 3:49 am

The summer is looking up. Despite failures of a bunch of tired franchise films, it looks like Marvel and DC are punching their way through to the masses, with Wonder Woman holding strong (and possibly being the biggest film of the Summer) and now Marvel-Man: Homecoming opening to an impressive $117m. But don’t rejoice, dear reader, for this week brings dark, ominous offerings.




Try saying this title quickly 3 times when you’re drunk: War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox) is the final part of the revived series (until its success spawns another few sequels, that is) that have had an impressive run both in box office and with the critics. And this latest film should be no different. Dealing with Caesar’s attempts to save his clan of apes, it features Woody Harrelson as the Kurtz-like military leader.

The main draw of this film is the apparent completion of the trilogy. With Dawn improving on Rise’s figures, you would expect to see this do even better, now that good reviews and WOM are spreading. But not so fast, monkey-boy. Despite being in 3D, this film is up against fiercer competition than its predecessors, namely Weekend #2 for Spidey, and next weekend seeing Nolan and war fans flocking to Dunkirk. So its legs may be more Capuchin than gorilla. Still, expect it to open somewhere between the first two films, say about $60m, and hold for at least $160m. Is it worth it? In BO it’s going to be 25, 29, or 34 bucks, so it’s certainly tempting to grab it in your June leagues. In Ultimate expect 11 T5, 5 PTA, and a strong IMDB score. That’s solid for $24 or $31, especially if August’s fare is weak. While this won’t anchor your slate, if you can squeeze it in then I would certainly recommend it.




More darkness descends in Wish Upon (Broad Green), a horror about a teen who is given a box that grants her wishes, but with a horrible price. Joey King and Ryan Philippe star in what may be Broad Green’s widest release to date. Audiences have been starved of supernatural horror this season, but that may not be enough for this indie distributor, especially when this is more generic fare than “elevated” films like The Witch. Best case is for this film to open at about $8m and close at around $22. That’s not great for $5/6 in BO and ultimate, so unless you think it’s the next Insidious, I would wish for something else.




And finally, I’m saving the darkest for last. Lady Macbeth (Roadside Attractions) was made entirely through public funding, namely the low-budget UK scheme called iFeatures, which has produced many films that mostly have ended up as expensive CVs for new film-makers. Until this film came along. Since its appearance in Toronto last year, it has been receiving rave reviews, its lead Florence Pugh being labelled a future star, and its performance beating expectations in Europe (where it has made nearly $3m so far from limited releases).

It’s the saviour of low-budget film-making this side of the pond, and its Shakespeare connection will intrigue an arthouse audience. In reality, it’s an adaptation of a Russian book which puts a Lady Macbeth-like character in a different scenario, namely as the bride of an arranged marriage who finds a lover and plots to take over the land. Which involves all sorts of dark, nasty murder. If Roadside handle this film well (opening in a handful of theatres, expanding fully), it could be a PTA goldmine. So watch the theatre count, and then seriously consider adding this to your Ultimate slate for $3/$4.


Also, just in case you’re wondering about The Midwife, it has been moved to next weekend. She was probably scared off by warring apes, demon boxes, and psychos from Northern England.



My predictions for the weekend

1. War for the Planet of the Apes - $60m
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $55m
3. Despicable Me 3- $18m
4. Wish Upon - $7.5m
5. Wonder Woman/The Big Sick - $7m


PTA: Lady Macbeth, WFTPOTA, Spidey, A Ghost Story, Despicable Me

Next week, UDM takes a look at not one, but 3 wildcard wide releases, Nolan’s WWII drama Dunkirk, oestrogen-fuelled comedy Girls Trip, and the $185m indie sci-fi Valerian. He’ll also find out what The Midwife was so afraid of, and waste words on The Gracefield Incident.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Buscemi » July 12th, 2017, 4:04 am

I'm going to say Wish Upon bombs with just $4 million this week. There's been almost no marketing (I was actually convinced it would be delayed again until I saw theatres selling tickets), it's coming from a financially troubled distributor (if this fails, Villa Capri is either getting pushed again or will get sold off), and the trailer makes it look completely unwatchable. But then again, I thought everyone who wanted to see 47 Meters Down would download the DVD rip.

I'm also going under with The Big Sick and will say it does $5 million for the weekend. I already explained my reasons in the Dunkirk potential threadception but I really don't understand the addition of 2,200 theatres when 700-800 new theatres would have sufficed. This is really only a third or fourth option against Caesar and Peter Parker.

War should do fine.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby transformers2 » July 12th, 2017, 8:04 am

I think Wish Upon would do well in most circumstances, but with Broad Green distributing, it's bound to be DOA.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Shrykespeare » July 13th, 2017, 9:04 pm

Theaters counts:

War for the Planet of the Apes - 4,022
Wish Upon - 2,250
Lady Macbeth - 5


Next week:

Dunkirk - 3,600+
Girls Trip - 2,500
Valerian - wide



Celebrity birthdays:

Chiwetel Ejiofor turned 40 on 7/10 (still a very underrated actor)
Bill Cosby turned 80 on 7/12 (so sad)
Cameron Crowe turned 60 on 7/13 (boy, this guy's just vanished off the map, huh?)
Lana Parilla turns 40 on 7/15 (she may be the evil queen on Once Upon a Time, but she's still hot)
Will Ferrell turns 50 on 7/16 (still can't stand the guy)
Happy 70th birthday Stephen King! (9/21/17)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Buscemi » July 13th, 2017, 9:10 pm

I'm expecting Valerian to be in the 3,000 range. EuropaCorp was able to get The Circle into 3,000 and this one is much more mainstream.

And I figured that Girls Trip would get 3,000. Very strong early word and the need for a feel-good comedy could allow it to surprise against Dunkirk (I'm still convinced it wins the weekend).

Lastly, I'm surprised that Chiwetel Ejiofor is only 40. That would have made him 25 when Dirty Pretty Things came out in Europe (it hit the US a little later).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Shrykespeare » July 13th, 2017, 11:54 pm

According to IMDB, Ejiofor's first role was 20 years ago in Amistad. I think the first thing I saw him in was Serenity (as the villain). I also remember him from Inside Man, Children of Men, American Gangster, Salt, The Martian, and Doctor Strange (and parts of 12 Years a Slave). Dude's got some serious talent.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Buscemi » July 14th, 2017, 12:20 am

David Mamet's Redbelt as well. The fight at the end of the film is one of the best of the past decade.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Shrykespeare » July 14th, 2017, 8:59 pm

Apes made $5M from Thursday night previews, according to BOM.

Their prediction:

Apes, $70M
Spider-Man, $57.3M
Despicable Me 3, $19.2M
Big Sick, $11.5M
Baby Driver, $8.1M
Wish Upon, $7M
Wonder Woman, $6.9M
Transformers, $2.9M
Cars 3, $2.8M
The House, $1.7M


BoxOffice.com's predictions:

Apes, $54M
Spider-Man, $47M
Despicable Me 3, $18.5M
Big Sick, $11M
Baby Driver, $9.1M
Wish Upon, $6.5M
Wonder Woman, $6.4M
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Shrykespeare » July 15th, 2017, 1:27 pm

Friday Estimates

War for the Planet of the Apes, $22.1M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $13.6M
Despicable Me 3, $6.1M
Baby Driver, $2.6M
The Big Sick, $2.5M
Wish Upon, $2.3M
Wonder Woman, $2.0M



Weekend Projections:

War for the Planet of the Apes, $54.7M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $47M
Despicable Me 3, $20M
Baby Driver, $8.6M
The Big Sick, $7.9M
Wonder Woman, $6.5M
Wish Upon, $5.7M
Cars 3, $2.9M
Transformers: The Last Knight, $2.7M
The House, $1.7M
47 Meters Down, $1.2M
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Walleye413 » July 15th, 2017, 7:30 pm

It's going to be awesome when The Big Sick ends up making more than The House. Of course, 47 meters down already did. . .
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Buscemi » July 15th, 2017, 8:22 pm

Per-theatre average this week will be just over $3,000 (and I bet a lot of theatres aren't even doing $1,000 with it). I'd say The Big Sick's run is winding down and Lionsgate made a big mistake in expanding that wide. They should have just gone to 1,000 this week and seen how things were from there.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Shrykespeare » July 16th, 2017, 2:27 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - War for the Planet of the Apes, $56.5M
4 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $45.2M
3 points - Despicable Me 3, $18.9M
2 points - Baby Driver, $8.7M
1 point - The Big Sick, $7.6M
Wonder Woman, $6.9M
Wish Upon, $5.6M
Cars 3, $3.2M
Transformers: The Last Knight, $2.8M
The House, $1.8M



PTA:
5 points - War for the Planet of the Apes, $14.048
4 points - Lady Macbeth, $13,763
3 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $10,396
2 points - A Ghost Story, $7,322
1 point - Despicable Me 3, $4,560



So Wonder Woman WILL pass GOTG as the biggest hit of the year, and will likely remain so until Star Wars comes out. It has a shot at $400M!!
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/1

Postby Shrykespeare » July 17th, 2017, 7:37 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - War for the Planet of the Apes, $56.3M
4 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $44.2M
3 points - Despicable Me 3, $19.4M
2 points - Baby Driver, $8.7M
1 point - The Big Sick, $7.5M
Wonder Woman, $6.8M
Wish Upon, $5.5M
Cars 3, $3.1M
Transformers: The Last Knight, $2.8M
The House, $1.7M



PTA:
5 points - War for the Planet of the Apes, $13,989
4 points - Lady Macbeth, $12,907
3 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $10,167
2 points - A Ghost Story, $6,772
1 point - Despicable Me 3, $4,659
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