SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

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Shrykespeare
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SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Last week, five new wide-release films debuted in theaters, but not a single one of them could pull up their big-girl panties high enough to crack the Top 5. The Fate of the Furious, to the surprise of no one, held on for a second straight week at #1, dropping 61% but still zooming to $38.4M The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast repeated at #2 and #3, respectively, and the six-film logjam of films earning between $4M and $5M this past weekend saw Going In Style and Smurfs: The Lost Village gobbling up the last remaining Top 5 points. Born In China, Unforgettable, The Promise, and Phoenix Forgotten all failed to find much of an audience, also to no one's surprise. In the PTA race, Jeremiah Tower elated the two or three people that took it, taking top honors.

And so, we move on to the films of April 28 aka The Final Week of the Year-Long Draft League Week aka What, It's Not The Summer Season Yet, WTF?? Week aka The Last Week For A While That No One Really Cares About. After much shuffling, postponements and whatnot, three films are on tap, so let's get started.

The one with the largest release platform, star power, and price tag is The Circle (STX Entertainment), a dramatic thriller directed by James Ponsoldt (The Spectacular Now) and based on the novel of the same name by James Eggers. Emma Watson, hot off her Beauty and the Beast mega-uber-hyper-success, stars as Mae Holland, a young tech worker who takes a job at a powerful internet company called, you guessed it, The Circle. As she catches the notice of the company's co-founders (played by Tom Hanks and Patton Oswalt), she finds herself climbing the company ladder, only to realize that the decisions she makes may determine the future of humanity. Dun dun DUNNNNNN!!!! (Oh, John Boyega from Force Awakens is also in it, making goo-goo eyes at the pretty English girl again.)

Anyhoo, The Circle is set to debut in over 3,100 theaters, the last gasp of the spring season. As much as we would love for a film that stars Hermione, Jimmy Dugan and ... um, Finn to be a hit with critics, that ain't the case. It's RT score is an abysmal 27%, and while some films are critic-proof, I don't think this is one of them. This film is going to debut small, die quickly and get swallowed up by the big guns coming in May. I'll award it an OW of $10M based on the star power of Watson and Hanks, which should be enough for #2 behind Fate. For less than $10, you can grab a film that will give you good T5 points (I'll guess six or seven), but disappoint in every other category, even Rating, which currently stands at 6.1. You could do worse, but then, the name of the game is to do better, isn't it?




I actually laughed out loud when I first saw the trailer for How To Be A Latin Lover (Lionsgate/Pantelion), a comedy from Ken Marino, making his theatrical debut in the big chair. Eugenio Derbez (Miracles From Heaven) stars as Maximo, a former lothario who is kicked to the curb when his sugar mommy of 25 years replaces him with a new boy toy. Homeless and jobless, he must seek shelter in the house of his estranged sister Sara (Salma Hayek) and his ten-year-old nephew Hugo. As he tries to regain his hot Latin mojo - and pass on his knowledge to the younger generation - he acquires a new target in a widowed billionaire (Raquel Welch). Rob Lowe, Kristen Bell, and Rob Riggle round out the cast.

Honestly, this movie looks hysterical. But with a release platform of only about 1,100 theaters, it won't even come close to the Top 5. Which means zero Top 5 and zero PTA. It may score a good Rating, but wouldn't you rather spend $5 on something with an established Rating already?




And the least desirable pick of the week is Sleight (BH Tilt), an urban fantasy/action thriller starring Jacob Latimore as Bo, a young street magician who is left to care for his little sister after their parents die and is forced into a life of street crime in order to keep a roof over their heads. However, he soon gets in way over his head, and must use his considerable smarts and magical talents to save her. The bad guy is played by Psych's Dule Hill, to which I say... damn, I miss that show.

The good news: the film received rave reviews at Sundance last year, and its RT score is quite impressive (68%). The bad news: it won't make a lick of difference. With a dump-release number of 565 theaters, it'll be lucky to clear seven digits, which makes this film a waste of the small amount of money you'd pay for it.




So, to sum up... don't waste your money on any of these films. Catch them on Netflix.


Predictions:

The Fate of the Furious, $18M
The Circle, $10M
The Boss Baby, $9M
Beauty and the Beast, $7M
Going in Style, $4M

PTA: Fate of the Furious, Jeremiah Tower, The Circle, The Boss Baby, A Quiet Passion



Next week, Six returns for the glorious start of Summer Season, the first week of the new Year-Long League, and the chance to sing the praises of Marvel's latest beast. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 will attempt to recapture the magic of the first, and it will be joined by three indie films trying to grab some PTA points: 3 Generations, The DInner, and The Lovers

Later!


P.S. Don't forget to buy, read, and review my new sci-fi/fantasy book!

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https://www.amazon.com/dp/B06XSVGV86
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by Buscemi »

Actually, I really like How to Be a Latin Lover's chances. Instructions Not Included had great opening weekend numbers ($7.8 million in just 345 theatres) and this one has a wider audience appeal (Lionsgate is even taking advantage of Derbez's fanbase by having theatres run both English and Spanish language versions). With 1,100 theatres, I think it plays way above the $6-7 million tracking I've seen. I expect at least $10 million and a hope that it plays near me (even with its cast, no theatres are showing it but The Shack gets a ninth weekend).

Though not in the game, Baahubali 2: The Conclusion is also looking at a big weekend. The first was a monster in limited release ($6.7 million in just 236 theatres) and with a 450 theatre opening, it could make $5-6 million this weekend.

Meanwhile, The Circle and Sleight do look like bombs. Evil technology movies never do anything while Sleight is getting no push whatsoever (I guess Blumhouse is confused when they have a film that's not horror). Sleight is also not playing anywhere near me. I'm going to say $8 million and $1.5 million, respectively.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Jeff DeMunn turned 70 on 4/25
William Moseley turned 30 on 4/27
Stefanie Corneliussen turns 30 on 4/28
Daniel Day-Lewis turns 60 on 4/29
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by Walleye413 »

Although the cover of the new book looks awesome, I have to say it's really weird seeing your name at the top and not Shrykespeare :)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Walleye413 wrote:Although the cover of the new book looks awesome, I have to say it's really weird seeing your name at the top and not Shrykespeare :)
Yeah, well, y'all are the only ones who know me by that appellation.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Fate of the Furious, $5.1M
Baahubali 2, $4.7M
How to Be a Latin Lover, $3.9M (You were right, Boosh!!)
The Circle, $3.2M
The Boss Baby, $2M
Beauty and the Beast, $1.7M



Weekend Projections:

Fate of the Furious, $18.6M
How to Be a Latin Lover, $12.2M
The Circle, $8.9M
Baahubali 2, $8.5M (not in the game)
The Boss Baby, $8.1M
Beauty and the Beast, $6.2M
Going in Style, $3.3M
Gifted, $3M
Smurfs: The Lost Village, $2.9M
Born in China, $2.3M
Unforgettable, $2.2M
Get Out, $1.5M
Sleight, $1.5M
The Promise, $1.4M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by numbersix »

Because Baahubali 2 wasn't in the game is it still included? So does The Circle get only 2 Top 5 points?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

No. It just doesn't count. We go around it.


Top 10:
5 points - The Fate of the Furious, $19.4M
4 points - How to Be a Latin Lover, $12.0M
(Baahubali 2: The Conclusion), $10.1M
3 points - The Circle, $9.3M
2 points - The Boss Baby, $9.0M
1 point - Beauty and the Beast, $6.4M
Going in Style, $3.6M
Smurfs: The Lost Village, $3.3M
Gifted, $3.3M
Unforgettable, $2.3M
Born in China, $2.2M

14. Sleight, $1.7M



PTA:
5 points - How to Be a Latin Lover
4 points - The Fate of the Furious
3 points - Sleight
2 points - The Circle
1 point - The Boss Baby
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 4/28

Post by shrykespeare2 »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Fate of the Furious, $19.9M
4 points - How to Be a Latin Lover, $12.3M
(Baahubali 2: The Conclusion), $10.4M
3 points - The Circle, $9.4M
2 points - The Boss Baby, $9.0M
1 point - Beauty and the Beast, $6.8M
Going in Style, $3.6M
Smurfs: The Lost Village, $3.6M
Gifted, $3.4M
Unforgettable, $2.4M
Born in China, $2.4M

14. Sleight, $1.7M



PTA:
5 points - How to Be a Latin Lover, $10,959
4 points - The Fate of the Furious, $4,890
3 points - Sleight, $3,012
2 points - The Circle, $2,856
1 point - The Boss Baby, $2,507
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