SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 8/26

[numbersix]

The last week of August must be one of the 5 worst of the year when it comes to box office (kudos if you can identify the other 4). Yet this is a good weekend for spotting bargains, particularly in the Ultimate game. For example, last year’s War Room ended up with 12 T5 points, a 6.8 IMDB score, 10 PTA points, and closed with $67m in the kitty. So let’s see if this year has another hidden gem...

[analyses for about 5 seconds]

Nope, not a chance.




Mechanic: Resurrection (Lionsgate/Summit) is the quintessential late August release: a one-quadrant action pic that’s aimed at an international audience and will pick up plenty of business outside of theatrical. It stars Jason Statham, and there’s no need to explain the plot. He isn’t investigating scandals in the Catholic Church. He isn’t having long conversations with his wife about their relationship. He’s blowing things up. With a title like that, he may or may not be fixing some things too, but they’ll probably blow up eventually.

It’s the sequel to the 2011 film which made $29m. But since then the films Statham has been the lead in (and not appeared in, such as Spy or The Expendables films) have been a string of bombs, such as Homefront ($20m) and Parker ($17m). And this film will probably join them, opening to about $8m and hitting $20m. It’ll cost you $6 in Ultimate and either $5 or $6 in BO, and with 2 T5 points, no PTA, an IMDB in the high 5s, and its $20m ceiling, it ain’t worth this implosion.




What happened to the Weinsteins? Top of the world a few years ago, now it seems Hands of Stone will be another disaster. A boxing flick about Panama-born champ Roberto Duran, it stars Edgar Ramirez, Robert De Niro, and pop star Usher.

Last year the Weinsteins had a modest hit with boxing film Southpaw, but this film won’t be able to match its $52m. Despite having a target audience of South and Central Americans, its poor reviews (57% RT) out of a Cannes preview, weak release date, and rumours that Harvey is broke and thus can’t spend much on marketing all point to a major defeat for the heavyweight distributor. I’m predicting a $6m opening and a $15m cume, which will give you no PTA or T5 points, and an IMDB score in the mid 6s. Don’t fight its corner.




I kinda lied when I said all the films this week are worthless. It seems Don’t Breathe (Sony/Screen Gems) has life in it. It’s a tense horror about three teens who attempt to rob a blind man’s home. The man turns out not only to be violent but has acute hearing and plunges the house into darkness to give himself the advantage. It’s directed by Fede Alvarez, who successfully remade Evil Dead a few years ago. A SXSW preview lead to great reviews and WOM.

Horrors are a dime-a-dozen, but even mildly positive reviews can make a difference – look at how Lights Out is performing. While this film won’t reach as high, it will exceed expectations and beat horrors that were released at this time of the year (Sinister 2, As Above so Below, etc), opening at about $12m and closing at around $28m. While hardly amazing numbers, that will result in 5-7 T5 points, 1-2 PTA points, and an IMDB in the mid 7s (it’s currently 8.3!). Its price tag in Ultimate is $6 and that feel like a bargain, so pick it up. For BO it’s $5 which isn’t bad, but hardly a steal unless you think it can hit $30m.

As for limited releases, we have 3 Sundance flicks and 1 film that got delayed from last week.



Southside With You (Roadside Attractions) – This ain’t just any old romantic drama. Oh no, this is one about our generation’s hippest president and First Lady: the Obamas! Or more specifically, the film is about Barack and Michelle’s first date as they stroll through Chicago’s south side in 1989. While a film like this could be a Hallmark TV movie, it instead played well in Sundance and received positive reviews (currently 88% on RT). At a time when Trump and Clinton are flinging dirt at each other, it’s Obama who is coming out golden. While this should be the PTA pick of the week, the only problem is that it’s coming out in a few dozen theatres, if not more. Still, with only $5K needed to earn some points, you should get something out of this $4 ultimate pick, particularly when next week’s limited fare is weak. Expect 5 PTA points minimum. For $2 in BO you’ll need it to hit $10m, which isn’t impossible.



The Hollars (Sony Classics) – A typical Sundance movie if I’ve ever seen one. Actor John Krasinski directs (Sundance Cliche #1) in this dramedy (Sundance Cliche #2) about a New York artist (#3) who returns to his hometown (#4) to visit his sick mother (#5), and ultimately learn to appreciate life (Cliche-ometer has exploded!). The reviews have been mixed on this one, but if SPC open in only a handful of theatres it should make some points this weekend, and maybe 1 or 2 next. For $3 it’s worth a shot although Denial could be a better pick.



Complete Unknown (IFC) – This drama stars Rachel Weisz and Michael Shannon as dinner party dates who go on a journey through the night to question their history and themselves. Director Joshua Marston has some profile with foreign language hits Maria Full of Grace and Forgiveness of Blood, but the reviews have also been mixed (57% RT). Again if this comes out in 2 theatres it might nab some points, but it feels the weakest of the bunch. It’s $3 in Ultimate as well, but I’d be more wary.



Mia Madre (Music Box Films) – Finally, this film was due out last weekend but got bumped. Still, it has a lot going for it. Director Nanni Moretti is an Italian auteur, having won the Palme D’Or in Cannes in 2001. His last film, We Have A Pope, had a decent opening PTA, and the reviews are very strong. Plus John Turturro’s presence will give it an American appeal. Music Box don’t have much clout, but their higher profile pics can deliver. This could be the dark horse of the limited releases, and again could be worth your $3 in Ultimate.


My predictions for the weekend

1. Don’t Breathe - $12M
2. Suicide Squad - $10M
3. Sausage Party - $8M
4. Mechanic Resurrection - $7.5M
5. Hands of Stone - $6.5m

PTA: Southside With You, The Hollars, Mia Madre, Don’t Breathe, Complete Unknown


Whew! 7 films analysed. Next week we’ll take a look at a mere three films, sci-fi Morgan, prestige drama The Light Between Oceans, and limited Mexican comedy No Manches Frida.

[Chienfantome]

yeah, we enter a period when if you choose wisely you can get a shitload of Top 5 and PTA for next to nothing. Trouble is, most of the time everything looks like it won't even crack the top 5. Always a tough one. risk isn't high budget-wise, anyway.

[Brockster]

Great preview Six...I laughed out loud a few times...very entertaining.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Hands of Stone is only opening in around 800 theaters, so even $6M seems out of reach. Maybe they should've held it until awards season?

(kudos if you can identify the other 4)

*cracks knuckles*

1st weekend of January
Weekend after Thanksgiving
Labor Day weekend
Halloween weekend
(also, maybe the weekend between Christmas openers and first week of January)

[numbersix]

Hands of Stone is only opening in around 800 theaters, so even $6M seems out of reach. Maybe they should've held it until awards season?

BOM still has it at 2000. If it's only 800 then it's a complete disaster.

1st weekend of January
Weekend after Thanksgiving
Labor Day weekend
Halloween weekend
(also, maybe the weekend between Christmas openers and first week of January)

I'd include the last weekend of April instead of 1st weekend on Jan, but that's pretty much it, in my humble opinion.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Deadline reporting that Southside With You will be opening in around 800 theaters as well, Roadside just changed it today. Everyone drop it from your Ult slates!

My guesses:

1. Don't Breathe - $23M
2. Suicide Squad - $10M
3. Sausage Party - $8M
4. War Dogs - $7.5M
5. Kubo & the Two Strings - $7M

-The Mechanic - $7M
-Hands of Stone - $3M

[Shrykespeare]

Great column, Six. You're an Irish me when it comes to column-writing. (Huge compliment, btw.)


Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Scott Caan turned 40 on 8/23
Kevin Dunn turned 60 on 8/24
Alex O'Loughlin turned 40 on 8/24

Alexande Skarsgard turns 40 on 8/25
Sarah Chalke turns 40 on 8/27
Luis Guzman turns 60 on 8/28
Armie Hammer turns 30 on 8/28

[Ron Burgundy]

Don't breathe is looking like a complete steal. After all the scrappy horror films last year, I'm surprised at how they are performing, started with The Shallows.

A real shame about Hands of Stone. And lol at your Hollars cliche comments!

And thanks six, needed my weekly dose of box office excitement.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday estimates

Don't Breathe, $10M
Suicide Squad, $3.3M
Mechanic: Resurrection, $2.6M
Sausage Party, $2.3M
War Dogs, $2M
Kubo & Two Strings, $2M
Pete's Dragon, $1.8M
Bad Moms, $1.7M
Jason Bourne, $1.4M



Projections:

Don't Breathe, $23.%M
Suicide Squad, $11.3M
Kubo & Two Strings, $7.3M
Sausage Party, $7.2M
Mechanic: Resurrection, $6.8M
Pete's Dragon, $6.6M
War Dogs, $6.5M
Bad Moms, $5.4M
Jason Bourne, $5.0M
Ben-Hur, $4.3M

Hands of Stone, $1.8M

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Don't Breathe, $26.1M
4 points - Suicide Squad, $12.1M
3 points - Kubo and the Two Strings, $7.9M
2 points - Sausage Party, $7.7M
1 point - Mechanic: Resurrection, $7.5M
Pete's Dragon, $7.3M
War Dogs, $7.3M
Bad Moms, $5.8M
Jason Bourne, $5.2M
Ben-Hur, $4.5M

13. Southside with You, $3.1M
15. Hands of Stone, $1.7M



PTA:
5 points - The Hollars
4 points - Don't Breathe
3 points - Complete Unknown
2 points - Mia Madre
1 point - Hell or High Water

Southside with You finished just behind HoHW.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Don't Breathe, $26.4M
4 points - Suicide Squad, $12.2M
3 points - Kubo and the Two Strings, $7.8M
2 points - Sausage Party, $7.53M
1 point - Mechanic: Resurrection, $7.45M
Pete's Dragon, $7.44M
War Dogs, $7.0M
Bad Moms, $5.6M
Jason Bourne, $5.1M
Ben-Hur, $4.6M

14. Southside with You, $2.9M
16. Hands of Stone, $1.8M



PTA:
5 points - The Hollars, $9,553
4 points - Don't Breathe. $8,657
3 points - Complete Unknown, $7,075
2 points - Mia Madre, $5,683
1 point - Hell or High Water, $3,908

Southside with You missed with $3,529.