TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

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TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Much like every 2nd weekend of May, the summer opener had no real competition.

Captain America: Civil War only had two new wide releases to contend with this weekend, and to call them "contenders" is generous at best. Civil War mirrored Iron Man 3's second weekend drop, with almost exactly the same 59% drop and $72M weekend. It's already up to $300M, and if if continues to mirror the third Iron Man, it'll end up anywhere between $400M-$425M. Luckily, nobody took it over Star Wars in the FY Draft. Money Monster, the newest from director Jodie Foster, was the best of the two new entries, but it's $14.7M take was nothing to write home about, or take George Clooney hostage over, as it were. Low budget horror flick The Darkness actually did slightly better than most expected, however a $5M opening is not even worthy of a complete sen-. Disney's The Jungle Book adaptation continues to hold spectacularly well, dropping only 30% in its 5th weekend and still holding onto the #2 spot.

In the PTA chart, my pick The Lobster posted the best PTA of the year so far, with $47K and an easy top spot. Love & Friendship was the surprise here, as it also posted a fantastic $33K PTA for 4 PTA points and it's still got a 100% RT score to boot. A Bigger Splash was overshadowed as it had to settle for 2 more points, and Money Monster will be happy with its lone point.

This week's wide releases...

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Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (Universal) - Coming from the school of repetitive comedy sequels, like The Hangover Part 2 or Horrible Bosses 2, Universal will try to repeat their surprise success of this weekend two years, as Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising hoses its way into into over 3,300 theaters. With every principal cast member back, the films returns to the lives of Mac (Seth Rogen) and Kelly (Rose Byrne), young parents who survived a fraternity moving in next door and almost ruining their lives and marriage. Two years later, they've finally sold their house and just have to wait for the 30 day escrow period to pass before the sale is complete. And as their luck would have it, a rowdy, rambunctious start-up Greek organization has just moved in next door - however, this time it's a sorority, led by druggy underachiever Shelby (Chloe Grace Moretz). Now Mac and Kelly must enlist the help of their former enemy, Teddy (Zac Efron), to get the sorority out of the neighborhood before they ruin their home sale. In addition to the returning cast, this sequel also sees the addition of Moretz, Selena Gomez, Kelsey Grammer, Dope's Keirsey Clemons, and Broad City's Abbi Jacobson.

Much like the aforementioned R-rated comedy sequels, for every Hangover Part 2 ($85M/$254M) that builds on the original, there's a Horrible Bosses 2 ($15M/$54M) that fails to capture the magic again. It seems that a successful sequel must do the same thing as the original, but slightly different; "give me the same but different" as the old Hollywood adage goes. The Hangover Part 2 set their gang in a different country, Austin Powers 2 ($54M/$206M) took its hero back in time instead of bringing him to the future, and probably the best example of a successful comedy sequel, 22 Jump Street ($57M/$191M) took its undercover cops and placed them in college. Neighbors 2 does this as well, replacing the frat with a party-heavy sorority, but it's hard to tell whether that will be enough to entire people to go for a second ride. I, for one, don't believe it is, as the hard partying girl angle was done successfully in Bridesmaids and Trainwreck, and the hot-guy's-hotness-is-funny-in-itself was hit pretty hard in both Jump St movies.

Plus, the comedy sequels that build on their predecessors tend to follow comedy hits that inspire almost-fantatic levels of fandom. Both the first Austin Powers and The Hangover were total surprises that had great legs at the box office buoyed by incredible word of mouth - Austin Powers posted a 5.8x multiplier while The Hangover had an insane 6.2x. Those are numbers Neighbors couldn't hit in 2014 with its 3.0x - very similar to Anchorman's 3.0x, which had its own disappointing sequel two years ago.



The Prediction - Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising is the first big comedy of the summer, but it's have a rough time besting its predecessor at the box office. And just like the original, it's got an X-Men movie in its 2nd weekend, which will siphon off its demo audience. The sorority version will open to $38M, amassing 7 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, while leaving theaters with $118M in its pockets. At $19 in the May-July Leagues, it's a bit overpriced, especially when you can get safer titles like The Secret Life of Pets or Alice Through The Looking Glass for only $6-$7 more. I'd be wary.

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The Angry Birds Movie (Sony) - Looking to build off the trend of child-centric games and toys being turned into big screen cartoons, Sony has taken what was probably the most popular mobile game of all time and pulled a plot out of its ass, slingshotting The Angry Birds Movie into almost 4,000 2D and 3D theaters this weekend. The Birds are a friendly people, isolated on their own island living the easy life, until one day a ship full of green Birds wash ashore, claiming to be benign tourists. But it's up to skeptical bird Red (voiced by Jason Suideikis) to prove that these Pigs are up to no good, and when the Pigs show their true, conquering colors, it's up to the Birds to get Angry and defend their home. The all-star voice cast includes Josh Gad, Bill Hader, Danny McBride, Peter Dinklage, Maya Rudolph, Keegan Michael-Key, and inexplicably, Sean Penn.

Let's get this out of the way: Sony wants its own LEGO Movie ($69M/$257M). Nobody expected anything of substance from the adaptation of the simplest toy in the world, Legos, but in 2014, WB turned expectations on its head, creating a beloved animated film that went on to end up as the 5th highest grossing film of the year and inspired numerous spin-offs and sequels to come. Sony has found great success with its two current animated franchises, the Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs series and the Hotel Transylvania group, and they're hunting for #3 this year. The difference between The LEGO Movie and The Angry Birds Movie is just a minor detail: quality. The LEGO Movie still stands at 96% on RT two years later, while Angry Birds is currently less than half that at only 45%. Even more so that it's less-than-stellar reviews, Angry Birds has a lot of competition for the children demographic, with Alice Through The Looking Glass, TMNT 2, and Finding Dory coming in the next 4 weeks. All of those have recognizable IP, much more so than Angry Birds - seeing as how they're all sequels to successful films.



The Prediction - The Angry Birds Movie had a chance to surprise, but Sony couldn't replicate the quality needed to hurdle over the confusion of the mere notion of making a movie out of the game. It should be able to take advantage of the lack of family films in the multiplex this weekend, opening to $45M, snatching 9 Top 5 points, 3 PTA points, and a total gross right around $130M. At $17, it's a pretty good bargain, even with its legs being cut off by the glut of family entertainment in the next month. It's easily the safest title in its price range, as it's guaranteed to outgross The Conjuring 2, Central Intelligence, and The Legend of Tarzan. It'd make a great 3rd option for your May-July slates.

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The Nice Guys (WB) - A breathe of fresh air in this summer of sequels and cartoons, WB is pulling out all the stops to make sure everyone knows they're releasing their wonderfully reviewed, noir comedy The Nice Guys, into almost 3,000 theaters this weekend. From Shane Black, probably the director best suited to noir, period comedies right now (the director of Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang), The Nice Guys stars Ryan Gosling and Russell Crowe as a mismatched pair of private detectives both on the case of a suspicious "suicide" of a porn star in 1970s Los Angeles. Gosling and Crowe, both proven to be adept at comedy when they want to (see: Crazy Stupid Love and Les Miserables, respectively), have not put the brakes on their press tour, creating viral videos and showing up on every early-morning and late-night show that will entertain the pair. Not that they really need to, as The Nice Guys is blowing audiences away, posting the best RT of the week with its 91%. The film also stars Keith David, Matt Bomer, Jack Kilmer (son of Val), and Kim Basinger (yeah, THAT Basinger).

It's easy for these adult-driven films to be overshadowed, but with a major distributor giving it it's all, The Nice Guys should easily fare better than most older-skewing comedies released in prime explosion season. Last year saw a wide release, well-reviewed, adult-driven film defy expectations to hold its own against comic book films and major action franchises alike - and that was STX's The Gift ($11M/$43M). It had a slightly better RT (93%) and was released in more than 500 less theaters, but word of mouth spread and ended up posting a 4x multiplier, which is nothing to laugh at. The Nice Guys, with more theaters, a hugely impressive ad push, and its game movie stars at the helm, should have no problem easily besting that opening, while drawing out a similar multiplier over May and early June.



The Prediction - The Nice Guys already is building a nice buzz as the real comedy of the weekend, and WB will have no problem recouping its $50M all-in. It will open to $18M, grabbing 4 Top 5 points, zero PTA points, and finishing with an impressive $61M. At $8 in the May-July BO Leagues, it's probably the best bang for your buck, box office-wise. However, with its stiff competition for Top 5 and PTA points, it's hard to recommend picking it up for your slate. Other options, like Me Before You or The Shallows, may have an easier time earning their prices this season.



This week's limited releases...

Maggie's Plan (Sony Classics) - Surprisingly not from Noah Baumbach, Maggie's Plan is the latest limited release starring indie darling Greta Gerwig, as Sony Classics is pushing it into only 5 theaters in LA and NY this weekend. Gerwig, the Parker Posey of the 2010s, stars as the titular Maggie, a young teacher who falls in love with a married college professor (Ethan Hawke). After cementing their affair after the professor explains his loveless marriage, Maggie's bliss quickly turns to domestic hell as the infatuation hurriedly disappears and she realizes she doesn't even like her new boyfriend. Maggie, ever the Type A, concocts her plan to reunite the professor with his crazy wife (played by Julianne Moore) so that she won't have to deal with him any longer. The film currently has an average 79% on RT, although it is decidedly lower than Gerwig's last 3 starring roles.

Modern love stories tend to do well in arthouses, and the Gerwig Factor is a huge mark in the Pro column for Maggie's Plan's PTA chances. The Gerwig Factor has proven itself to be worth its salt, as her last 2 summer limited releases had no problem snatching up PTA points: Frances Ha - 6 points, Mistress America - 8 points. While not legendary numbers, you'll want to take what's almost a sure thing when it comes to the PTA field, and Greta Gerwig is as close as you're going to get this summer. Not to mention the rest of the cast, which is very arthouse friendly - Moore, Hawke, Bill Hader, and Maya Rudolph. Depending on how wide The Lobster expands, Maggie's Plan has a good chance of taking the crown this weekend and pulling in a few over the next couple of weekends. At $4, it's a great gamble this weekend.



Wiener (IFC) - The rare documentary from IFC, Weiner is the story of disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner as he tries to rebound from his sexting scandal that forced his resignation and become Mayor of New York City back in 2013. The doc, which has gotten great reviews, won the Documentary Grand Jury Prize at this year's Sundance Film Festival and is rocking a pretty great 88% on RT. Weiner had the festival buzzing and IFC was smart enough to buy it before its debut, defining just how anticipated the film was at the time. However, it's hard to decipher just how relevant a Anthony Weiner doc is now, especially in the times of Donald Trump and his insane ramblings and Tweets. Showtime teamed up with IFC to secure distribution, meaning that the film will not be day and date streaming as it'll run exclusively on Showtime in the fall. This could drive any of those interested into theaters along the coasts - plus, opening in NYC - Weiner's hometown - could boost its profile immensely. In 5 theaters and for only $2 this season, you could do a lot worse than Weiner in your life.



The Predictions For The Weekend of May 20th-May 22nd:

1. The Angry Birds Movie - $45M
2. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - $38M
3. Captain America: Civil War - $34M
4. The Nice Guys - $18M
5. The Jungle Book - $9M

PTA: The Lobster, Maggie's Plan, The Angry Birds Movie, Weiner, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Next week we'll have two more of the biggest sequels of the summer, as X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through The Looking Glass storm into theaters. Limited, we'll only have one new contender in Chevalier.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by numbersix »

I was totally against Angry Birds originally. A game that's not as popular as it used to be, thrown into a crowded summer. Yet being the first animation in a while, and until Finding Dory, means it's the only option for young kids this summer. Should have picked it in the yearly draft. Not so sure about The Nice Guys opening that high. Buzz has been very good, but the other two wides are going to suck up a lot of the audience, and the film doesn't appeal to the under-represented older audience in the way Money Monster did.

Think Maggie's Plan will win the weekend, and Love and Friendship will earn more points.

1. The Angry Birds Movie - $40M
2. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - $35M
3. Captain America: Civil War - $35M
4. The Nice Guys - $12M
5. The Jungle Book - $10M

PTA: Maggie's Plan, The Lobster, The Angry Birds Movie, Love and Friendship, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Chienfantome »

I certainly hope you are right about The Nice Guys. Reviews and word of mouth are great, so despite the competition I think it could indeed do better than what the soft tracking suggest.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Angry Birds, $11M
Neighbors 2, $8.7M
Captain America, $8.7M
Nice Guys, $3.9M
Jungle Book, $2.7M
Money Monster, $2M



Weekend Projections:

Angry Birds, $39M
Captain America, $32.5M
Neighbors 2, $21M
Nice Guys, $11.6M
Jungle Book, $11.5M
Money Monster, $6.3M
The Darkness, $2.2M
Zootopia, $1.7M
The Huntsman, $1.3M
Mother's Day, $1.1M


PTA:

Angry Birds, around $10K
Captain America, around $8K
Neighbors 2, around $6K
Nice Guys, around $4K
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by W »

For PTA, Deadline shows Lobster at $16K, Weiner at $15K, Love and Friendship at $12K, and Maggie's Plan at $11k.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by numbersix »

In terms of PTA titles

Everybody wins!

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Chienfantome »

What a disappointment from Neighbors 2. I'm glad i didn't take it in the round 3 of the draft after all.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Buscemi »

Not surprised by Neighbors 2. It looked like the exact same movie as the first.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Janet Jackson turned 50 on 5/16
Megan Fox turned 30 on 5/16
Bob Saget turned 60 on 5/17
Cher turned 70 on 5/20
Lisa Edelstein turned 50 on 5/21
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Angry Birds Move, $39M
4 points - Captain America: Civil War, $33.1M
3 points - Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, $21.8M
2 points - The Nice Guys, $11.3M
1 point - The Jungle Book, $11.0M
Money Monster, $7.1M
The Darkness, $2.4M
Zootopia, $1.7M
The Huntsman: Winter's War, $1.2M
Mother's Day, $1.1M



PTA:
5 points - Weiner
4 points - The Lobster
3 points - Maggie's Plan
2 points - Love & Friendship
1 point - The Angry Birds Movie

Let's hear it for Weiner!!




Box Office Race:

Deadpool, $362.7M
Captain America, $347.4M
Zootopia, $334.4M
Batman vs Superman, $328.4M (through Thu.)
The Jungle Book, $327.5M
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Chienfantome »

I was hoping The Nice Guys might open between 15 and 20M. I was certain it could do at least $50M total, but now, it's gonna be less than that. Too bad, the film is really fun and as a cool original summer film, it deserves to do more than that.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals:

Top 10:
5 points - The Angry Birds Move, $38.1M
4 points - Captain America: Civil War, $32.9M
3 points - Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, $21.8M
2 points - The Nice Guys, $11.2M
1 point - The Jungle Book, $10.9M
Money Monster, $7.0M
The Darkness, $2.3M
Zootopia, $1.7M
The Huntsman: Winter's War, $1.2M
Mother's Day, $1.1M



PTA:
5 points - Weiner, $17,105
4 points - The Lobster, $17,000
3 points - Maggie's Plan, $12,662
2 points - Love & Friendship, $11,911
1 point - The Angry Birds Movie, $9,704
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 5/20

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Wiener won the PTA?! That's annoying :(
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