With the lowest opening weekend of the four films, Mockingjay: Part 2 could "only" bring back $102M worth of Katniss fans to see how it all ended. Poor word of mouth and series fatigue could see the climax of 3 years and countless "PEETA!" cries becoming the worst performer of them all, the possibility of Mockingjay Part 2 not reaching $300M is very real. The other two openers also disappointed, Seth Rogen's The Night Before couldn't even break $10M (hitting only $9.8M) and the American remake of The Secret In Their Eyes was good for a measly $6.6M in their opening weekends. Unlike the latter, The Night Before has a Christmas/holiday theme that can keep it in audience interest throughout its run to the end of the year. The Secret In Their Eyes continued Hollywood's run of star-heavy dramas completely bombing, following Our Brand Is Crisis, Burnt, By The Sea, Rock The Kasbah, Crimson Peak, Steve Jobs, Pan, Everest, and Captive.
Looking through our PTA goggles sees Carol unsurprisingly taking the crown and its 5 PTA points with the third highest PTA of the year, $63K (behind Steve Jobs and Sicario). Legend took advantage of the weak openers and grabbed 3 points of its own, but more are doubtful with its reviews. Brooklyn and Spotlight continued their PTA runs, totaling 10 and 11 points respectively, even through their expansions - they might even place again this weekend if word of mouth continues to propel their box office takes.
This week's wide releases...
The Good Dinosaur (Disney) - Marking Pixar's 20th anniversary, the animation outfit decided to release two films in the same calendar year for the first time ever, after skipping 2014 completely. In June, they released Inside Out to the tune of $90M/$356M, the highest non-Toy Story Pixar film ever. With big shoes to fill, Disney is trying their luck again, releasing The Good Dinosaur into over 3,700 2D and 3D theaters this Wednesday. The film posits the questions of "What would Earth look like if the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs missed the planet?" - a setting that gives way to the story of Arlo, a young Apatosaurus, that gets separated from his family and must find his way home, with the help of his newfound pet human, Spot. Following the blueprint of the The Land Before Time films, The Good Dinosaur takes the "Boy And His Dog" trope and turns it on its head, making the Boy a dinosaur and the dog a boy. Although not as well received as Inside Out was pre-release, The Good Dinosaur is holding it own with a very respectable 85% RT score so far.
Combining the quality of Pixar and the animated cliche of talking animals have begotten us fantastic critical results thus far, as we been gifted with Finding Nemo, Ratatouille, A Bug's Life, and Up (well, Dug spoke kind of...). Yet these films have given us varied box office results, from the highs of Nemo ($70M/$339M) to the lows of A Bug's Life ($33M/$162M) - The Good Dinosaur looks to be more cut from the Nemo cloth, but matching that film's success is unlikely. Pixar has probably the highest levels of goodwill in a decade after the runaway success of Inside Out, and since Pixar hasn't had a film open to less than $60M in the frame, Dinosaur's success seems already written. Of course, this weekend two years ago gave us Frozen ($67M/$400M) and there is little non-Star Wars competition for children and families, so the opportunity is there for The Good Dinosaur to open big and finish big.
Outside of the Pixar stable, the best comparison for the dinosaur-themed cartoon would be 2013's The Croods - another animation that featured caveman humans and prehistoric animals. Opening at $47M in the spring, the holiday season can easily add $20M to that comparable opening weekend. The original Land Before Time film is another dinosaur-themed animated film, but being released in only 1,300 theater overs 25 years ago makes its box office information extremely outdated and hard to extrapolate. Dinosaurs themselves are still in favor with children, easily proven by Jurassic World's record-breaking run this summer, and great word of mouth could drive Dinosaur into the upper tier of Pixar films.
The Prediction - The Good Dinosaur is riding a wave of goodwill from Inside Out and Jurassic Park, and given its prime release date, it should have no problem putting up big numbers, even in the wake of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It will open to $65M ($78M 5-day), grabbing 18 Top 5 points, 5 PTA points, and a total north of $243M. Priced at $33, it's a must have in all leagues, if you're going the anti-Star Wars tactic of course.
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Creed (WB) - 2015 has already given us one surprise, boxing-themed film that did better than expected the box office, and WB looks to try their hand at it this week, speed-bagging Creed into over 3,400 theaters. A spinoff of the famed Rocky series, Creed follows the boxing champ son of Rocky adversary Apollo Creed - Adonis Johnson (played by Michael B. Jordan) - as he struggles to live up to the family name, both inside the ring and outside. He eventually enlists the help of Rocky himself (Sly Stallone, of course) after he loses his title to train for the rematch and redemption. Co-starring Tessa Thompson, Phylicia Rashad, and real-life boxer Tony Bellew, Creed is unexpectedly receiving mass amounts of favorable reviews and has a current RT of 94% to back it up.
Although Creed is the story of Apollo's son, the marketing plan from WB have leaned heavily on its Rocky connection - featuring Stallone almost as much as Creed himself in all ads. It seems to be officially considered as a the newest entry in the Rocky series, which stumbled with its last film - Rocky Balboa in 2006 - that became the 2nd lowest grossing Rocky film, only besting the much maligned Rocky V. Rocky Balboa opened to a miserable $12M in December, but rode the holidays and generally positive word of mouth to a respectable $70M by the end of its run. Creed has the added advantage of putting rising star Michael B. Jordan front and center, the actor has built a steady reputation since his breakthrough in 2012's Chronicle. This summer's Fant4stic Four didn't help his box office history, but it also won't put a irreversible black mark on his record. He'll bounce back effortlessly, starting with this starring, show-y role.
This year also has already produced a boxing hit with Jake Gyllenhaal's Southpaw, which rode good word of mouth to a $16M opening and $52M total, easily outgrossing Jake's last critical hit, Nightcrawler. And with the retirement of legend Floyd Mayweather and last weekend's title fight between Canelo Alvarez and Miguel Coota, boxing hasn't been more popular since Tyson's heyday. All of which will help drive audiences to Creed, as the #1 option for older audiences this Thanksgiving.
The Prediction - Creed will ride the Rocky nostalgia train, as well as new fans of Michael B. Jordan, to a three-day opening of $26M ($37M 5-day), amassing 8 Top 5 points, zero PTA points, and a total of $81M. It would cost you $13 in November - January Box Office leagues, and could make a great complement for Episode VII if you believe the Christmas Day releases will be overshadowed.
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Victor Frankenstein (Fox) - Fox is enlisting the rare Holiday-dumping strategy with their new Frankenstein film, Victor Frankenstein, bolting necks into just under 3,000 theaters. Starring James McAvoy as the titular scientist and Harry Potter's Daniel Radcliffe as his trusty Igor, the film tells the origins of the fames experiment from the viewpoint of Igor, as he meets and befriends Victor, and together they embark on a journey that leads them to the eventual creation of Frankenstein's most famous experiment ever - his Monster. The film expectedly has been ravaged by critics so far, only good enough for a 17% on Rotten Tomatoes and a "low-for-IMDb" 6.4.
Much in the vein of other horror twists on old legend films like the other Frankenstein movie from last year (I, Frankenstein), Dracula Untold, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, The Raven, Red Riding Hood, and Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters, Victor Frankenstein looks like a bomb in the making. I, Frankenstein could only manage $8M/$19M in January, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter put up a disappointing $16M/$37M in the summer of 2012, and so on and so forth. The intended comedy that Fox has been pushing for Victor Frankenstein won't help either, as The Night Before is the current first choice for audiences seeking laughs. The current crop of films have all divided the demographics of audiences and Victor Frankenstein will only be able to pull in the stragglers, and perhaps diehard James McAvoy fans.
The Prediction - After being pushed out from October earlier, Victor Frankenstein will be steamrolled by all competition, opening to only $12M ($17M 5-day), grabbing 2 Top 5 points, zero PTA points, and a total of only $33M. This will be a film quickly forgotten, especially when genre audiences will eat up Krampus next weekend. At $9 in November-January Leagues, it's a waste of a slot in your lineup.
This week's limited release...
The Danish Girl (Focus) - The only new PTA entry this holiday weekend, Focus will be bringing the much-anticipated The Danish Girl to a prime 4 theaters this weekend. Starring last year's Best Actor Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl is the true story of Danish artist Einar Wegener who became the first person in the world to undergo Gender Re-Assignment surgery in the early 1920s. Einar would become Lilli Elbe, and must try to navigate her new world both with her wife and in a time period in which gender roles were as rigid as possible. Both Redmayne, and co-star Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina), as well as director Tom Hooper (winner of the Best Director Oscar for The King's Speech), are expected to be major players in next year's Oscar race, and arthouse audiences will be biting at the bit to get a look at what Redmayne can do with such a demanding role.
Although Focus has stumbled time and time again with their wide releases (Self/Less, Sinister 2, and Insidious Chapter 3 already this year), they had success with last month's Suffragette (10 PTA points). Focus hasn't finalized a set expansion schedule, but their big Oscar film last year, The Theory of Everything, was released into 5 theaters last November and expanded slowly over the month on its way to 13 PTA points. On the other hand, The Danish Girl hasn't been receiving the almost-unanimous rave reviews that most limited releases need this time of year to differentiate themselves from the glut of Oscar films in the season. It only has a 76% on RT, which is a far cry from last week's Carol (94%), Spotlight (97%), or Brooklyn (99%) - that can lead to a quick fall from the PTA race in the upcoming weeks. It'll cost you $4 in November-January Ultimate Leagues, and is a must have if you skipped any of the previously mentioned trifecta of films.
My Predictions For The Weekend of November 25th-29th:
1. The Good Dinosaur - $65M ($78M 5-day)
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $40M
3. Creed - $26M ($37M 5-day)
4. Victor Frankenstein - $12M ($17M 5-day)
5. Spectre - $9M
PTA - The Danish Girl, Carol, The Good Dinosaur, Brooklyn, Legend
Next week is a breather for everyone, with Krampus being the lone wide release and a four-pack of limited releases (Youth, Hitchcock/Truffaut, The Lady In The Van, and Macbeth), before all of our panties are blown off with perhaps the most anticipated film of the last decade.
This week in Box Office History...
1999 - Sixteen years ago, upstart animation studio Pixar followed their smash hit Toy Story with the much-anticipated sequel, Toy Story 2. Its wide release over Thanksgiving that year managed $57M, then the highest grossing animated opening ever, and it dominated throughout the holidays - only giving up its #1 spot in its 5th weekend to Stuart Little. It finished at $245M, which would've been the highest grossing film of the year, if not for The Phantom Menace and the surprising performance of The Sixth Sense. Arnold Schwarzenegger's sci-fi action film, End of Days, also opened that weekend, with $20M and 3rd place that weekend, behind the second weekend of The World Is Not Enough. A Pixar film and a Bond movie - things looks like they change, but always stay the same.
