SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/28

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SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/28

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

And so we wait...

The dreaded lull between summer blockbusters and fall's quieter awards fare began last weekend, as all three openers failed to gross over $10.5M. Universal's latest hit in their improbable streak of them, Straight Outta Compton, ruled the roost for the second weekend in a row, with a soft drop for its genre and hitting $110M in 10 days. The other late summer smash, Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation, also had no problem besting the trio of middling newcomers as Tom Cruise's latest continues its march towards $175M domestic. While it won't come close to the 4th installment of the series, Rogue Nation has done well with little competition, especially with its late schedule change. Mistress America amassed another 4 points on the PTA front and it will easily pass the double digit mark this weekend. It's another slow one this weekend, with three new non-starters as we impatiently wait for the glut of September dramas.

This week's wide releases...

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No Escape (TWC) - It's not often that Owen Wilson decides to strap on his acting shoes and foregoes the comedy background for some dramatic action; in fact, this is just the second time this has happened (after 2001's Behind Enemy Lines), as No Escape steamrolls into 3,000 theaters on Wednesday. Wilson stars as a husband and father who uproots his young family from Texas to an unnamed Asian country (most likely Thailand) after his job relocates across the globe. Unlucky for them, a rebel coup soon breaks out in the very city they're staying in and the family most fight to survive American-hunting natives in their quest to escape the country in one piece. It hasn't exactly caught on with critics, sitting at a nice 40% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes, but that isn't exactly a surprise - it did suffer from several date changes and a title change at the hands of the chaos-powered Weinsteins. Lake Bell and Pierce Brosnan co star, as the worried, frazzled wife and the older expat, respectively.

Other than the aforementioned scheduling mayhem, The Weinstein Company has tried their hardest to seemingly bury No Escape as well as they can - a barely-there marketing campaign and being put out to pasture in the dumping grounds that is late August. On a Wednesday, no less. The fact that it's getting 3,000 theaters (3,007 to be exact) reeks of a contractual provision. With its off-season release and its prime B-movie premise, a great comparable would be the stuck-in-a-precinct actioned Assault On Precinct 13 (2005) - a film that opened to only $6M in the dead of January. It rode the coattails of a slightly after-his-time leading man (Ethan Hawke) and paired him with an older, former action star brimming with gravitas (Laurence Fishburne) - a formula No Escape seems to be aping flawlessly. A sub-$25M total seems to be in the cards here as well.

No Escape would have to overcome its B-list cast and an oversimplified premise that seems to hinge more on xenophobia than actual drama to become a hit - and having seen it, it doesn't have nearly enough to do so.



The Prediction: Nobody expects No Escape to do well, least of all The Weinstein Company. It will open to $5.5M ($8M 5 day), 3 Top 5 points, 1 PTA points, with a total of only $12M. At $5 in August BO Leagues, you'd be better off spending a couple of extra dollars and grabbing Sicario or Paranormal Activity: Whatever.


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We Are Your Friends (WB) - Who can resist an R rated drama surrounding the ennui of a young 20-something EDM DJ? What about if that quarter-life crisis experiencing DJ was played by Zac Efron? Well, if you can't, such a drama will be dropping the needle into 2,250 theaters this weekend. This presumably unconventional drama follows former Disney tween hottie Efron as Cole Carter, the DJiest name in cinema history, as he struggles to find his way out of his boring, 9-to-5 life into one full of stardom. Heavily marketed among the MTV and Snapchat crowd, WAYF (as its known in hashtag form) has been doing unexpectedly well among critics, at least for this type of film. It's rocking 50% on Rotten Tomatoes that bumps up into a certified Fresh 63% with Top Critics. Emily Ratajkowski co stars as the love interest in her 3rd feature film in a calendar year, after starring in Robin Thicke's Blurred Lines video in 2013 (for those keeping score, she's been naked in all of them so far).

Efron has built his career from High School Musical into his first starring vehicle, making featured stops along the way in The Lucky One, That Awkward Moment, and culminating in his biggest hit to date, last summer's Neighbors. We Are Your Friends marks the first time a film's entire marketing hinged entirely on Efron's grown up performance, even if WB is still smart to prominently feature those abs as much as possible. WAYF has bypassed traditional marketing, skimping on print ads and TV spots - instead they've zeroed in their target demographic, showering Snapchat and Twitter with #WAYF featured hashtags and filters. Zac has 11M Twitter followers and another 6M on Instagram and he's made sure they all are aware that We Are Your Friends is opening this weekend. And he'd better, as dramatic films aimed at the short attention spanned demo of 16-25 year olds haven't historically done that well. Last August's If I Stay couldn't capitalize on a sparse field, only opening to $15M and totaling at $50M, but even that isn't a fantastic comp as If I Stay was much more romantically-aimed than WAYF.

They are not a lot of good comparisons, WAYF is a coming-of-age tale set in the main character's 20s and is leaning heavily on social media to bring out its audience. Colleges have just started across the country, so it may not be the best scheduling as students would rather go to a party than watch one at the movies.



The Prediction: We Are Your Friends won't blow the roof off the mother, but it is the brightest spot this weekend. It will open to $11M, 8 Top 5 points, 4 PTA points, and a total around $27M. It's priced at $6 in August BO, and with it's better-than-average reviews, it would be a better pick than Hitman, American Ultra, or Burnt.

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War Room (Tri-Star) - The Kendrick Brothers, pastors from Georgia turned filmmakers, bring their latest Christian drama into 1,100 theaters, and are almost guaranteed to churn out another hit for their outfit and Sony. War Room follows a marriage on the brink of divorce and when an old woman introduces her War Room strategy to them, the couple must fight using the power of prayer to become a happy family again. Similar to the past Kendrick Brothers' productions, there are no stars involved and reviews from mainstream critics will make no difference in its box office prospects.

The Kendrick Brothers have built upon themselves with every outing, their first film, Facing The Giants, was a midsize success back in 2006 ($1M/$10M). But they propelled themselves into the mainstream when Fireproof ($6M/$33M) surprised all box office watchers by breaking into the Top 5 in September 2008. And their last endeavor, Courageous ($9M/$34M) didn't make the same leap, but did open well enough to again crack the Top 5 against strong studio fare. War Room is the first time they're opening outside of late September, and doesn't seem to have the full head of steam that Fireproof and Courageous had before their debuts. Also noteworthy, this is their first film that centers on a predominantly African-American cast - which can either hurt or help its box office, it's hard to gauge that kind of response within the context of an exclusively Christian audience.



The Prediction: War Room won't be able to recapture the magic of the last two films in The Kendrick Brothers' CV. It will open to $5M, zero Top 5 points, zero PTA points, before topping out at $22M. It'll only run you $3 in August BO leagues, so if you think it can break $30M, it wouldn't be the biggest risk in the world.

This week's limited release...

The Second Mother (Oscilloscope) - This Portuguese Language drama premiered at this year's Sundance, and walked away with the World Cinema Dramatic Special Jury Award for Acting. Not bad for just the second feature from director Anna Muylaert and starring a 60 year old character actress from Brazilian soap operas. It was quickly picked up and set for release for this weekend. The film follows Val (Regina Case) as she abandons her daughter to go nanny for a wealthy family in Sao Paolo before trying to re-kindle the relationship with her unknown daughter 13 years later.

Oscilloscope Pictures doesn't release a ton of films, this is only their 5th release of the year and the first to be available in our game. Their best release this year was Felix & Meira, released in April - had it been in our game, it would've snagged 12 PTA points in the dead weekends before The Avengers: Age of Ultron hit. While The Second Mother won't be able to repeat that, don't be surprised if it grabs a handful of points over the next few dead weekends. It will only be released in 3 theaters this weekend, and is planned to only expand to 8 next weekend. For $3 in August Ultimate leagues, they are definitely safer bets for PTA in September and October - but The Second Mother has the advantage of a terrible field of competitors on its side.



My predictions for the weekend of Aug. 28th-30th:

1. Straight Outta Compton - $15M
2. We Are Your Friends - $11M
3. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $7M
4. No Escape - $5.5M
5. War Room - $5M

PTA - Straight Outta Compton, The Second Mother, We Are Your Friends, Mistress America, Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation

Next week we only have one release with the reboot Transporter: Refueled, so I'll have a summer recap/Most Anticipated of Fall for you guys as well.

This week in Box Office History...

2007 - Eight years ago, the improbably Rob Zombie-directed Halloween reboot broke the Labor Day weekend record, notching $30M over the 4 day weekend. It went on to gross $58M, good enough to finish the year as the 2nd highest grossing horror film of 2007 (after Saw IV). This would lead to a poorly received sequel two years later, which remains as one of the ugliest films I've watched to date. The other openers, ping-pong comedy Balls of Fury and revenge remake Death Sentence, opened much worse - 3rd place and 8th place, respectively. While Zombie has yet to top his Halloween, Death Sentence director James Wan went on to direct The Conjuring and the 3rd highest grossing film of all-time: Furious 7.
Last edited by BanksIsDaFuture on August 27th, 2015, 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Chienfantome »

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:The Second Mother (Oscilloscope) - This Spanish Language drama premiered at this year's Sundance, and walked away with the World Cinema Dramatic Special Jury Award for Acting. Not bad for just the second feature from director Anna Muylaert and starring a 60 year old character actress from Mexican soap operas.
This is actually a Brazilian film in Portuguese ;)

I'm sure it's gonna grab a few PTA points at least this weekend, agreed.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by numbersix »

What a week of duds. You pretty much nailed it when it comes to the wide releases. We Are Your Friends might be worth taking in Ultimate just for the guaranteed T5 and PTA points. And War Room might be worth taking in BO.

Can't make my mind up about The Second Mother. There's no competition (because Z for Zachariah wasn't included in the game ;) ) but Oscillosope films tend not to do that well on the PTA front. It's out in 3 theatres, though, so might nab some points.

1. Straight Outta Compton - $15M
2. We Are Your Friends - $10M
3. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $7M
4. War Room - $6M
5. No Escape - $5.5M

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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Chienfantome wrote:
BanksIsDaFuture wrote:The Second Mother (Oscilloscope) - This Spanish Language drama premiered at this year's Sundance, and walked away with the World Cinema Dramatic Special Jury Award for Acting. Not bad for just the second feature from director Anna Muylaert and starring a 60 year old character actress from Mexican soap operas.
This is actually a Brazilian film in Portuguese ;)

I'm sure it's gonna grab a few PTA points at least this weekend, agreed.
Fixed. :D

Yeah, Oscilloscope isn't known for PTA points, but 3 theaters is hard to argue with.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

War Room, $3.9M
Straight Outta Compton, $3.8M
No Escape, $2.4M
Mission: Impossible, $2.2M
Sinister 2, $1.4M
Man from UNCLE, $1.2M
Hitman: Agent 47, $1.1M


Weekend Projections

Straight Outta Compton, $12.3M
War Room, $10.5M
Mission: Impossible, $7.5M
No Escape, $7.2M
Sinister 2, $4.3M
Man from UNCLE, $4.2M
Hitman: Agent 47, $3.6M
Jurassic World, $2.8M
The Gift, $2.7M
Ant-Man, $2.7M



Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Marlee Matlin turned 50 on 8/24
Sonny Shroyer turned 80 on 8/28
Shania Twain turned 50 on 8/28
William Friedkin turned 80 on 8/29
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Buscemi »

Meanwhile, We Are Your Friends bombs with $725,000 on opening day. The Diary of a Teenage Girl's wide expansion didn't do much better with $413,000 in 795 theatres (I wondered why Sony decided to go wide such a niche-appealed movie).

And in its return to (most) theatres, Jurassic World makes $787,000 in 1,239 theatres. It might beat We Are Your Friends' weekend in 1,000 fewer theatres (in its twelfth week, no less).

This week's Cinemascores:
No Escape: B+
We Are Your Friends: C+

War Room apparently wasn't polled (despite being from a major studio) but I wouldn't be surprised that if it had, it would have been a rare A+.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by W »

Deadline says War Room was polled, at an A+.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Buscemi »

Huh, interesting that Cinemascore's site didn't list it. Of course, they also never listed The Good Lie or The Imitation Game from last year (both were also A+).

Anyway, weekend estimates.

1. Straight Outta Compton $13.2 million
2. War Room $11 million ($9,692 PTA)
3. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation $8.3 million
4. No Escape $8.29 million ($2,470 PTA)
5. Sinister 2 $4.65 million (56% drop)
6. The Man from U.N.C.L.E. $4.4 million
7. Hitman: Agent 47 $3.85 million (54% drop)
8. The Gift $3.1 million
9. Jurassic World $3.1 million (in its 12th week, 229% increase)
10. Ant-Man $3.05 million
-- American Ultra $2.8 million (49% drop)
-- We Are Your Friends $1.8 million ($772 PTA)
-- The Diary of a Teenage Girl $0.4 million ($535 PTA)

This is the first weekend since October 31st, 2014 (and second weekend since official tracking began in 1982) that two wide openers finished with less than $1,000 PTA.

Limited releases:
Z for Zachariah $58,000 in 29 theatres ($2,000 PTA)
The Second Mother $28,000 in 3 theatres ($9,333 PTA)
Queen of Earth $12,000 in 2 theatres ($6,000 PTA)
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by transformers2 »

We Are Your Friends is now officially the worst FY draft pick I've ever made.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

PTA estimates:

5 points - War Room
4 points - The Second Mother
3 points - Straight Outta Compton
2 points - Mistress America
1 point - MI:Rogue Nation

If it was in the game, Z For Zachariah would've got 0 points anyway. It was day and date after all.
Looks like we should've had Grandma though, it'd be up to 10 points already.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Straight Outta Compton, $13.2M
4 points - War Room, $11.0M
3 points - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, $8.3M
2 points - No Escape, $8.3M
1 point - Sinister 2, $4.6M
The Man from UNCLE, $4.4M
Hitman: Agent 47, $3.8M
The Gift, $3.1M
Jurassic World, $3.1M
Ant-Man, $3.1M


PTA:
5 points - War Room
4 points - The Second Mother
3 points - Straight Outta Compton
2 points - Mistress America
1 point - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

Jurassic World just missed another PTA point.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Geezer »

There is a God! We Are Your Friends looks like the worst film ever made in the history of cinema.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Chienfantome »

Ouch, at least the film enters history as one of the biggest flops ever :lol:
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Speaking of big flops, Cutthroat Island starring Geena Davis, Matthew Modine and Frank Langella was on TV just yesterday, I hadn't watched it before...probably wont again.
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Re: SPEARE'S HIATUS: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 8/2

Post by Chienfantome »

I've never seen Cutthroat Island.
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