SPEARE'S MINI-TIPS - THE FILMS OF 5/1

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Forecast:

Avengers: Age of Ultron, $221M
Furious 7, $8M
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, $7.7M
The Age of Adaline, $7M
Home, $4.5M
Ex-Machina, $3M
Cinderella, $2.7M
Unfriended, $2.5M
The Longest Ride, $2.2M
Woman in Gold, $2M


For PTA: Madding Crowd looks good, but I doubt anything will beat Avengers.




Celebrity Birthdays:

Kate Mulgrew (Star Trek: Voyager) turns 60 on 4/29
David Beckham (soccer star) turns 40 on 5/2
Rob Brydon (The Trip, The Trip to Italy) turns 50 on 5/3
Dule Hill (Psych) turns 40 on 5/3

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Avengers: Age of Ultron, $84.4M



Weekend Projections:

Avengers: Age of Ultron, $210M
Furious 7, $7.3M
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, $7.2M
The Age of Adaline, $6.9M
Home, $3.5M
Cinderella, $3.2M
Ex-Machina, $2.4M
Unfriended, $2.3M
The Longest Ride, $1.9M
Woman in Gold, $1.7M

[W]

I wonder how much Mayweather/Pacquiao is going to effect Avengers today. Having another entertainment option that is going to possibly gross a half billion in buys has to do something to the number.

[Buscemi]

Apparently, the fight affected it big time. Avengers is now on track to only do $189-191 million (Disney's saying $195 million) for the weekend. That's $16-18 million off the first one at the same point of release.

And the A Cinemascore, though very good (on par with other Marvel films), isn't the A+ the first one got. We could see at least a 55% second weekend drop (and maybe even a 58% drop like Iron Man Three had).

[W]

Apparently, the fight affected it big time. Avengers is now on track to only do $189-191 million (Disney's saying $195 million) for the weekend. That's $16-18 million off the first one at the same point of release.

And the A Cinemascore, though very good (on par with other Marvel films), isn't the A+ the first one got. We could see at least a 55% second weekend drop (and maybe even a 58% drop like Iron Man Three had).

It may effect it this weekend, but I'd say the people that will view it multiple times either don't care about the fight or will squeeze in both this weekend. The average person that will see it once and missed it I assume will see it another weekend? So maybe a slightly lighter drop is in order? Looking at the ten highest weekends of all time, the average is about 60% with the only ones close to 50% being Avengers 1 (about 51) and The Dark Knight (52.5%). 55% wouldn't be awful with this high a gross. It'd actually be #4 after those two and Catching Fire... IM3's 58% would be 5th in that scenario, so pretty average for a super-blockbuster.

With Avengers, the fight, Kentucky Derby, NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs, regular season MLB games, NFL draft, and start pre-Indy 500 stuff, I wonder if the entertainment industry has done this much bank in history?

[Chienfantome]

It may effect it this weekend, but I'd say the people that will view it multiple times either don't care about the fight or will squeeze in both this weekend.

I'm pretty sure there won't be as many people who will see it multiple times as there were for the first one. I haven't spoken to anyone who thought the fiml was as good as the first, and most people were quite disappointed by it. It's gonna do much less than the first I'm sure. It will definitely hard for it to pass $500M.

[empire13]

At this point I think it will do right around $500 million. That's about $125 million off what the first one did and I'm okay with that. I mean it's still the 2nd best opening weekend of all-time and I think we feel like it's failing somehow. Expectations are a funny thing. Watch out Star Wars fans. If it doesn't hit $180 million on opening weekend, I think people will be grumbling. That would be ridiculous.

I do think the fight hurt Saturday's number, though.

[Geezer]

There's probably only about 15 films in the next year that have the potential to even match Avengers opening weekend in their entire run. If that's disappointing, people are crazy.

[Buscemi]

Remember when the first Hobbit broke the December opening weekend record but everyone called it a flop because it didn't hit $100 million? It's gotten to the point where people think a movie not making $80 kajillon opening weekend is automatically a disappointment.

Meanwhile, no way that Star Wars makes $180 million opening weekend. That would be more than double the first Hobbit's mark.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Avengers: Age of Ultron, $187.6M
4 points - The Age of Adaline, $6.2M
3 points - Furious 7, $6.1M
2 points - Paul Blart: Mall Cop, $5.5M
1 point - Home, $3.3M
Cinderella, $2.4M
Ex-Machian, $2.2M
Unfriended, $2.0M
The Longest Ride, $1.7M
Woman in Gold, $1.7M


PTA (Mar/Apr):
5 points - Avengers: Age of Ultron
4 points - Far From the Madding Crowd
3 points - The Age of Adaline
2 points - Furious 7
1 point - Ex-Machina

PTA (May) - Starting with the May leagues, there will not be separate Top 5 PTA for different leagues, but we still have to finish the other two)
5 points - Avengers: Age of Ultron
4 points - Far From the Madding Crowd

No word yet on Far From Men or The 100-Year Old Man.

[W]

There hasn't been a nine figure opener in December at all, but it is Star Wars so who knows? May is about seeing how much money you can make as quick as possible while December is about trying to keep your film relevant for as long as possible.

[Buscemi]

I think the opening weekend ceiling for Star Wars is $120 million. It's not going to be the first weekend that will be important but rather the second weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Avengers: Age of Ultron, $191.3M
4 points - Furious 7, $6.6M
3 points - The Age of Adaline, $6.2M
2 points - Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, $5.9M
1 point - Home, $3.5M
Cinderella, $2.7M
Ex-Machina, $2.3M
Unfriended, $2.2M
The Longest Ride, $1.7M
Woman in Gold, $1.6M



PTA (Mar/Apr):
5 points - Avengers: Age of Ultron, $44,731
4 points - Far From the Madding Crowd, $16,499
3 points - The Age of Adaline, $2,074
2 points - Furious 7, $2,010
1 point (Mar) - Cinderella, $1,945
1 point (Apr) - Ex-Machina, 1,787

PTA (May):
5 points - Avengers: Age of Ultron, $44,731
4 points - Far From the Madding Crowd, $16,499

STILL no numbers for the other two films. If they don't report, anyone who picked them may replace them.