SIX TIPS - FILMS OF 3/06

[numbersix]

Well, because I'm the only one left I might as well do a very brief rundown of the films opening this weekend.

First out of the gate is CHAPPIE, written and directed by Neil Blomkamp. With Elysium disappointing this seems like a return to the (relatively) low-fi high concept type of film that made District 9 such a success. This film seems to be about a police robot that becomes self aware, and then things get explodey. It stars Dev Patel and Hugh Jackman. While it's likely to top this weekend, there is a major concern about who its targeting: younger audiences due to the cute nature, or older audiences due to the action. Falling between two stools can spell death for a film, making this a wild card. At $17 in Ultimate and $16 in BO, it feels like too much of a risk when the best you can hope for is probably 9 T5, 4 PTA points, and about $60m BO. And the reviews are suggesting Chappie's little robot legs are rusted.

An even worse prospect for your slate is UNFINISHED BUSINESS, a comedy about some businessmen who make a Hangover-style mes across Europe. So far so generic. Vince Vaughn's stock has been plummeting in recent years (though the upcoming seasons of True Detective could change all that) and considering the RT score of 5%, this won't be helping him any. For $9 for both BO and Ultimate leagues,expect 3T 5 points at best (and maybe only 2), a max of 3 PTA points, and about 25m in the box office.

Far more promising is a sequel, THE SECOND BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL. The first film was a surprise when it made $46m in May of 2012, another example of how the older audience (known as the Grey Pound in the UK) are not being catered enough for and how films like this can blow expectations out of the water. This particular audience can be quite forgiving about a film's flaws if the elements are right, and you can expect this film to perform along similar lines. Opening wide this weekend, it could have a handsome PTA score and wind up somewhere in the Top Five. I'm going to predict 4 T5 points, 2-3 T5, and a BO cume of around $40m. For $7 in Ultimate and $6 in Box office,it might be worth picking up if you need something modest to fill the slate.

Finally, we have one limited release coming out, the documentary MERCHANTS OF DOUBT. It takes a look at pundits who are hired to provide expert analysis for whatever their employers want them to back, thus making a mockery out of journalism and public debate. In a sense, this isn't far off from docs like THE CORPORATION,which made 1.8m all the way back in 2004. However,with only a decent RT score and no real festival awards to its name, don't expect it to be a huge hit, but this weekend alone the Sony Classics release could top the PTA count. It'll only cost you $3 and you're pretty much guaranteed a minimum of 3 PTA points,so another film worth filling out your slate, particularly if you're picking up The Avengers 2.

Next week sees the release of potential blockbuster CINDERELLA, Liam Neeson action flick RUN ALL NIGHT, and (superb) indie horror IT FOLLOWS.

My predictions

1. Chappie - $20 million
2. Focus - $11 million
3. Unfinished Business - $8 - million
4. 2nd Best Marigold Hotel - $7 million
5. Spongebob: Sponge Out of Water - $6.5 million

PTA Feb/March: '71, Merchants, Marigold, Wild Tales, Chappie
PTA April: Merchants, Marigold, Chappie, Unfinished

[BanksIsDaFuture]

With the reviews of Chappie, it might not even reach $20M this weekend. It looks like Neill Blomkamp has made one decent film and two shitty ones so far. Doesn't bode well for the Alien sequel he just got.

1. Chappie - $18M
2. Unfinished Business - $13M
3. Focus - $11M
4. Second Best Marigold Hotel - $9M
5. Spongebob - $7M

[Shrykespeare]

Good news, everyone.

With my move into the new house complete, I will try to get back into column writing this weekend.

The operative word being "try".

On March 14-15, I will be heading down to Tucson, AZ (a two-hour drive) to showcase Joshua's Island at the Tuscon Book Festival, a two-day event that brings in over 100,000 people yearly. Hopefully I can get my book into a few hands, so if I'm not around on those days, you'll know why.


Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Dirk Benedict (70) on 3/1
Paul W.S. Anderson (50) on 3/4
Penn Jillette (60) on 3/5
John Heard (70) on 3/7
Micky Dolenz (70) on 3/8

[Chienfantome]

On March 14-15, I will be heading down to Tucson, AZ (a two-hour drive) to showcase Joshua's Island at the Tuscon Book Festival, a two-day event that brings in over 100,000 people yearly. Hopefully I can get my book into a few hands, so if I'm not around on those days, you'll know why.

That's great !

The only films I touched this weekend for the game is merchants of Doubt, which seems like an easy grab of 4 or 5 PTA points, and Marigold 2 in BO.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater Counts:

Chappie = 3,201
Busine - 2,777 (get it?)
SBEMGH2 - 1,573
Doubt - 4


Next week:

Cinderella - 3,600+
Run All Night - 3,150+

[Ron Burgundy]

Thats a bit of a reach Shryke

Thanks six, always need my weekly column fix.

Chappie doesn't look good does it, i would have thought it can do better than Focus but maybe not.

And Marigold seems like a great choice for that cheap slate filler

Merchants, with Sony Classics being attached has been on my radar for a while now, fingers crossed it gathers more PTA next week too

[Buscemi]

Friday estimates:

1. Chappie $4.5 million (B Cinemascore, Sony probably should have cut it down to a PG-13 to better reflect the trailers)
2. Focus $2.9 million
3. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $2.7 million (B+ Cinemascore)
4. Kingsman $2.2 million
5. Unfinished Business $1.8 million (B- Cinemascore, this was probably Vince Vaughn's last chance)
6. Fifty Shades of Grey $1.7 million
7. The Lazarus Effect $1.6 million
8. The DUFF $1.5 million
9. McFarland, U.S.A. $1.5 million
10. SpongeBob $1.4 million
-- American Sniper $1.1 million (passing Guardians of the Galaxy in the process, only $3 million away from Mockingjay)
-- Jupiter Ascending $300,000

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Projections:

Chappie, $13M
Second Best Exotic, $9.3M
Focus, $9.1M
Kingsman, $8.1M
SpongeBob, $6.9M
McFarland, $5.7M
Fifty Shades, $5.1M
Unfinished Business, $4.8M
The DUFF, $4.7M
The Lazarus Effect, $4.6M
American Sniper, $4.4M

[Chienfantome]

A very small weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Chappie, $13.3M
4 points - Focus, $10.0M
3 points - The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, $8.6M
2 points - Kingsman: The Secret Service, $8.3M
1 point - SpongeBob: Sponge Out of Water, $7.0M
Fifty Shades of Grey, $5.6M
McFarland, USA, $5.3M
The Lazarus Effect, $5.1M
The DUFF, $4.8M
Unfinished Business, $4.8M
American Sniper, $4.5M

That is now 14 T5 points for Kingsman (two more than Fifty Shades). American Sniper officially becomes the highest-grossing film of 2014.


PTA (Jan/Feb):
5 points - The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
4 points - Wild Tales
3 points - Merchants of Doubt
2 points - '71
1 point - Chappie

PTA (Mar):
5 points - The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
4 points - Merchants of Doubt
3 points - Chappie
2 points - Unfinished Business

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Both Chappie and Unfinished Business bombing is really no surprise, but a $4M opening for a Vince Vaughn comedy is...

No wonder Universal has shelved Term Life, it seems his box office power is long gone.

And Blomkamp's 3rd robot movie in South Africa continues his streak of diminishing returns.

[Buscemi]

Audiences have stayed away from Vaughn ever since he defended his homophobia while promoting The Dilemma. It's amazing that anyone in Hollywood thinks he can still open a movie.

Term Life will probably end up either being like Search Party and open in Europe first or be like Stretch and go straight-to-DVD. My best guess is the latter (I imagine WWE productions are like Blumhouse productions and don't have SAG requirements or union regulations).

[Chienfantome]

Yeah horrible weekend for the supposed "big" openers.
4 PTA points for Merchants is good though. And Marigold is solid for what it is.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Chappie, $13.3M
4 points - Focus, $10.0M
3 points - The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, $8.5M
2 points - Kingsman: The Secret Service, $8.3M
1 point - SpongeBob: Sponge Out of Water, $6.7M
Fifty Shades of Grey, $5.5M
McFarland USA, $5.2M
The Lazarus Effect, $5.1M
The DUFF, $4.8M
Unfinished Business, $4.8M


PTA (Jan/Feb):
5 points - The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, $5,429
4 points - Wild Tales, $5,179
3 points - Merchants of Doubt, $5,075
2 points - '71, $4,327
1 point - Chappie, $4,170

PTA (Mar):
5 points - The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, $5,429
4 points - Merchants of Doubt, $5,075
3 points - Chappie, $4,170
2 points - Unfinished Business, $1,719