SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/31

[Shrykespeare]

Last weekend, Ouija broke out slightly continuing the uptick of decent openings for horror films with an OW of just under $20M. Keanu Reeves actioner John Wick earned a respectable $14M to finish in second, ahead of holdovers Fury ($13M), Gone Girl ($11M) and The Book of Life ($10M). On the PTA front, Birdman soared high yet again, nearly doubling the output of Keira Knightley vehicle Laggies.

One week from now, we will begin the Winter Season, a two-month stretch that will feature the usual admixture of Oscar hopefuls and potential blockbusters, led by The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, which will have to match its predecessors’ success in order to pass Guardians of the Galaxy for the #1 film of 2014. However, before we turn the page over to November, we must first close out October.

Halloween week is typically, well, weak, the calm before the storm that is the beginning of the Winter Season. By the looks of things, October will be just a memory the moment November 1 starts, as between the holdovers and the new films, we may not have a single movie earn $10M this weekend. Only two films will be debuting wide this weekend before the high-octane fun begins again.

The more notable of the two new films is Nightcrawler (Open Road Films), which marks the directorial debut for Dan Gilroy, who penned the screenplays for such films as Real Steel and The Bourne Legacy. No, it’s not another X-Men spinoff featuring the blue-skinned mutant with teleportation abilities, but rather a gritty crime thriller starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Rene Russo and Bill Paxton.

Set in contemporary Los Angeles, Nightcrawler centers on Lou Bloom (Gyllenhaal), a desperate but driven young man who discovers the high-tension world of crime journalism. Joining up with a camera crew that exists to film car crashes, murder and mayhem, Lou dives head-first into the dangerous business of reporting said mayhem – called “nightcrawling” – but in the process, he soon finds himself becoming the star of his own stories.

The good news for you players is, Nightcrawler is dirt cheap, only $7 in Ultimate and $6 in Box Office. On the one hand, yet, much bigger fish will get swimming in to devour all competition over the next month, but none of them are really in the same genre as Nightcrawler which, if it finds an audience, could produce some very reasonable stats.

Even if it only earns $10M this weekend, that may be enough for it to win, depending on how far Ouija drops after Halloween. And with only two new films debuting next week, it’s possible for Nightcrawler to earn as many as eight or nine Top 5 points. It probably won’t earn any less than six, which is still good for the asking price. It could also conceivably get to $30M, which is also not bad. Its current Rating of 8.2 certainly won’t harm your slate in the least.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that that OW probably won’t bring it any PTA points at all, and that’s honestly the only bad thing I have to say about it. If you can squeeze it in to your roster, I say go for it.




Also opening the week is Before I Go to Sleep (Clarius Entertainment), a dramatic mystery-thriller starring the immensely talented triumvirate of Nicole Kidman, Colin Firth and Mark Strong. Kidman plays Christine Lucas, a woman who, as the result of a bad accident, can only store memory for one day before forgetting her entire life again. This is explained to her by her husband Ben (Firth), who has performed this role for nearly twenty years.

However, things get mysterious when she is contacted by Dr. Nasch (Strong), who tells her to match recorded videos that she has been making, unbeknownst to Ben. Before long, she uncovers things about herself that make her question whether the information she’s being fed is true or a lie to cover up something even more tragic.

Before I Go to Sleep will debut in well under 2,000 theaters, and I have yet to see a single commercial for it. Despite the strong cast, I doubt that it will even crack the Top 5. For the price tag of $8 (Ultimate) and $6 (Box Office), this turkey arrived too early even for Thanksgiving. I’ll predict numbers of $6M/$13M and turn my computer off.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s limited-release films:

Horns (Radius-TWC) ($4 Ult, $4 BO) – This film from noted horror director Alexandre Aja (The Hills Have Eyes, Mirrors) stars Daniel Radcliffe in maybe his most un-Harry Potter-ish role to date. He plays the role of Ig Perrish, a man who wakes up from a night of drinking to find two horns inexplicably protruding from his head… and they apparently give him the power to make people reveal their darkest secrets. Nice power, even if it does make it hard to wear hats, I suppose. Of course, after his girlfriend (Juno Temple) turns up dead, the people around him can only figure that he is possessed of the devil. That’s natural, right?

I’m not sure how many theaters will be showcasing Horns. It’s entirely possible that it could earn some PTA, but after Kevin Smith failed to produce any results with Tusk, I’m highly doubtful that it will happen with Horns. Maybe next month with Wes Craven’s Pointy Things. Oh, wait, maybe I made that one up…




The ABCs of Death 2 (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This is the sequel to the horror anthology film The ABCs of Death, that hit theaters two years ago. It is a compilation of twenty-six different short films, each from a different director, that features mayhem and death at its most gruesome and horrifying.

On the one hand, it’s received a much more positive response than its predecessor, but on the other hand... who cares? It still has even less appeal than Horns, and besides, it’s from Magnolia, which means that you don’t even have to go to theaters to see it. Pass.




My predictions for the weekend of October 24-26, 2014:

1. Nightcrawler - $10 million
2. Ouija - $9 million
3. (John Wick - $8 million)
4. Fury - $7 million
5. Gone Girl - $7 million

PTA: Birdman, Laggies, Nightcrawler, Ouija, Whiplash

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Nightcrawler – 88% (28/32 positive), 8.2 (1775 votes)
Before I Go to Sleep – 54% (20/37 positive), 6.4 (2782 votes)
Horns – 63% (19/30 positive), 6.6 (12,624 votes)
The ABCs of Death 2 – 67% (10/15 positive), 5.9 (885 votes)


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we enter the home stretch for 2014 with the release of two potentially huge films in wide release. We have Interstellar, the latest film from The Dark Knight trilogy director Christopher Nolan, as well as Big Hero 6, the latest animated feature film from Disney. In limited release, we have The Theory of Everything, Jessabelle, The Better Angels and Why Don’t You Play in Hell.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Kelly Osbourne (So Undercover) turns 30 on 10/27
Dennis Franz (NYPD Blue) turns 70 on 10/28
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line, Her) turns 40 on 10/28
Nelly (rapper/actor, The Longest Yard) turns 40 on 11/2

Later!

[numbersix]

It's weird Nightcrawler is getting a wide release, as it looks like such an arthouse movie. Maybe the success of Prisoners is behind all this, but that makes me wonder if people will be disappointed because this film is so damn weird (I haven't seen it yet, but that's what I hear). Also this weekend is a bit of a wrestle for the Top 5. You could see Gone Girl coming out on top again.

Radius tend to open their films in only a few theatres, so I could see Horns earning some PTA. Laggies should be expanding so not sure how well it'll do. And yeah ABCs 2 should be avoided completely.

1. Nightcrawler - $9 million
2. Fury - $8 million
3. Ouija - $8 million
4. (John Wick - $7.5 million)
5. Gone Girl - $7.5 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

It should be noted that Horns is also already available on VOD, and has been for a week or so now.

1. Nightcrawler - $11M
2. Ouija - $8M
3. Gone Girl - $7.5M
4. Fury - $7M
5. John Wick - $6M

-Before I Go To Sleep - $3M

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts


Nightcrawler - 2,766
Before I Go to Sleep - 1,902



Next week:

Big Hero 6 - 3,700

Interstellar - IMAX/limited on Wednesday, 3,500 on Friday

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Ouija, $3.5M
Nightcrawler, $3.2M
Fury, $1.9M
John Wick, $1.8M
Gone Girl, $1.8M
St, Vincent, $1.7m
The Book of Life, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Nightcrawler, $13M
Ouija, $9.7M
Fury, $8,9M
Gone Girl, $8.2M
John Wick, $7.9M
The Book of Life, $7.3M
St. Vincent, $5.8M
Alexander..., $5.1M
The Judge, $3.2M
Dracula Untold, $2.5M
The Best of Me, $2.4M
Annabelle, $2M
Before I Go to Sleep, $1.9M


Birdman pulled $2.3M in 231 theaters, for a PTA of around $10K. Looks like another win, depending on what Horns does.

[bestfilm]

I think they're too bullish about Ouija holding so well on Saturday and Sunday.
Anyway, I really hope it may finish second, because those points might just be enough to save me either in one or both the ultimate leagues.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Nightcrawler, $10.91M
4 points - Ouija, $10.90M (close!)
3 points - Fury, $9.1M
2 points - Gone Girl, $8.8M
1 point - The Book of Life, $8.3M
John Wick, $8.0M
St. Vincent, $7.7M
Alexander..., $6.5M
The Judge, $3.4M
Dracula Untold, $2.9M

PTA:
5 points - Birdman (15 total)
4 points - Whiplash (13 total)
3 points - Laggies (7 total)
2 points - Nightcrawler
1 point - Ouija

[Spectre]

Those holds...

[undeadmonkey]

Those holds...

yea it's quite incredible. st vincent stayed even and gone girl, book of life and alexendar.. all dropped 20% or less. Makes me wonder if the studios are overcrowding the box office and if they would release fewer new movies it would give others a chance to find an audience.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Ouija, $10.7M
4 points - Nightcrawler, $10.4M
3 points - Fury, $8.8M
2 points - Gone Girl, $8.5M
1 point - The Book of Life, $8.2M
John Wick, $8.0M
St. Vincent, $7.2M
Alexander..., $6.6M
The Judge, $3.4M
Dracula Untold, $3.0M


PTA:
5 points - Birdman, $10,348
4 points - Laggies, $4,358
3 points - Whiplash, $4,207
2 points - Nightcrawler, $3,775
1 point - Ouija, $3,705