SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Brad Pitt war epic Fury brought in less-than-expected numbers but still won the weekend, earning over $23M. Ben Affleck and Gone Girl cruised past the $100M by adding another $17.5M to its total, just ahead of animated film The Book of Life ($17M). On the PTA front, Birdman soared to great heights with a score of over $100K in four theaters. Yikes.

First off: I am sorry to report that Keanu Reeves action drama John Wick was never added to the Master List, and therefore will not be part of the game. Any Top 5 points that it earns (if any) will simply not be awarded for game play. Sorry, guys.

Only three new films to talk about this week, and of those, only one is going wide. That film is Ouija (Universal), the debut feature film for director Stiles White. The plot is thus: after a friend is brutally killed in an accident, a group of close teenage friends must confront their darkest fears when they awaken the powers of an ancient spirit board by attempting to contact their friend in the afterlife.

Um, yeah. Reminds me of a movie I saw back in the 80’s called Witchboard (anyone remember Tawny Kitaen? No?) Well, it’s a horror movie, filled with good-looking teen and twenty-something actors that I’ve never heard of, and that’s about all you need to know about Ouija. What’s more important is that it’s a horror movie opening just before Halloween, and with Annabelle reversing the trend set by the dismalness horror outings from the rest of 2014, who knows how Ouija will fare? (I will remind you that last year, Carrie was the only horror movie in all of October, and it flopped.)

Still, from what I’ve read, social buzz is up for Ouija, so that will probably translate into a respectable OW, though I have no doubt at all that the numbers will plummet once November hits. I will predict an OW of $25M and a total take of $47M. That’s just so-so for the price tag of $12 in Ultimate ($10 in Box Office), but with nothing coming out next week, it may glean as many as eight Top 5 points along with a few PTA. Keep in mind that the docket is going to get crowded pretty soon.




And now, a little bit about this week’s limited-release films:

Laggies (A24) ($7 Ult, $6 BO) – From director Lynn Shelton (Your Sister’s Sister) comes this romantic comedy starring Keira Knightley, Sam Rockwell and the incredibly busy Chloe Grace Moretz (If I Stay, The Equalizer). Knightley plays Megan, a 28-year-old woman who, after attending a high school reunion, decides to take a week off from her life. Megan crosses path with a party girl named Annika (Moretz) and decides to hang out with her and her friends for a night… but things get complicated when sparks fly between her and Annika’s father (Rockwell). Mark Webber, Jeff Garlin and Boardwalk Empire’s Gretchen Mol co-star.

Laggies premiered at Sundance earlier this year, and reviews have been fair. I regret that I have no clue how many theaters will be showing this film, which at one point was scheduled to go wide. It may earn a few PTA, but probably not enough to make spending $7 on it worth it. Box Office is a definite no-go.




White Bird in a Blizzard (Magnolia) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This is a dramatic thriller from director Gregg Araki (Mysterious Skin) that stars Shailene Woodley (Divergent), Eva Green (300: Rise of an Empire), Gabourey Sidibe, Christopher Meloni, Angela Bassett and Thomas Jane. Woodley plays Kat, a girl who becomes benumbed when her emotionally-repressed mother Eve (Green) disappears. Through flashbacks, Eve’s story is also told, culminating in a mystery that Eve must try to solve in order to come to terms with her mother’s absence.

Like all Magnolia films, White Bird in a Blizzard is also available on demand. It has a good theater count (seven), so it may yet pick up some PTA points, but it probably won’t be many, and given its middling User Rating, I wouldn’t take the chance on this film.




My predictions for the weekend of October 24-26, 2014:

1. Ouija - $25 million
2. (John Wick - $15 million)
3. Fury - $13 million
4. Gone Girl - $11 million
5. Book of Life - $11 million

PTA: Birdman, Ouija, Whiplash, White Bird in a Blizzard, Fury

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Ouija – N/A, 5.4 (36 votes)
Laggies – 64% (14/22 positive), 7.5 (836 votes)
White Bird in a Blizzard – 50% (9/18 positive), 6.6 (4,046 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out October with a host of cheap films, including: Nightcrawler, a gritty crime drama starring Jake Gyllenhaal; Before I Go to Sleep, a thriller starring Colin Firth and Nicole Kidman; and, in limited release, Horns and The ABCs of Death 2.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Ang Lee (director, Life of Pi and Brokeback Mountain) turns 60 on 10/23
Katy Perry (singer) turns 30 on 10/25
Rosemarie DeWitt (Cinderella Man, Kill the Messenger) turns 40 on 10/26
Morgan Saylor (Homeland) turns 20 on 10/26

Later!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by numbersix »

So annoying that the Italians couldn't put John Wick into the game, although I'm not sure how big it will be despite the good reviews.

Anyway, I think Ouija is good value and have it on a few slates. The PTA picks are not quite appealing, although Laggies should surely nab 4 points this weekend.

1. Ouija - $20 million
2. Fury - $12 million
3. Gone Girl - $11.5 million
4. Book of Life - $11 million
5. (John Wick - $10 million)

St. Vincent is also going wide but I don't see it making more than 5 or 6m

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

According to the Laggies official Tumblr (?), it'll be in 5 theaters this weekend, and going nationwide on 11/7.

Ouija looks like garbage, but I guess teenagers aren't interested in Fury. John Wick actually looks slick and fun, so that'll cut into it I think.

1. Ouija - $18M
2. Fury - $16M
3. John Wick - $15M
4. Book of Life - $11M
5. Gone Girl - $10.5M

St. Vincent - $8M

And what the hell is 23 Blast?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by Spectre »

Ouija is going to absolutely blow but movies around Halloween are generally review proof. Should still win the weekend handily and make decent money before falling off a cliff headfirst in November. I really wish John Wick were an option for the game, it sounds like a great B action flick. Hoping for a big weekend for my FY BO slate.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by Chienfantome »

I really think John Wick can be an underdog, too bad it's not in the game. I can see it open at #2 this weekend. And I hope for my FY draft slate that Ouija can capitalize on the Halloween period to make more than $50M total.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official theater counts:

Ouija - 2,858
John Wick - 2,589



Estimates for next week:

Nightcrawler - 2,800
Before I Go to Sleep - 1,700+
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Ouija, $8.3M
John Wick, $5.4M
Fury, $4.1M
Gone Girl, $3.5M
St. Vincent, $2.5M
The Book of Life, $2.4M
Alexander..., $2.0M
The Best of Me, $1.6M
The Judge, $1.3M
Dracula Untold, $1.3M



Weekend Projections:

Ouija, $20M
John Wick, $14M
Fury, $13.5M
Gone Girl, $11M
The Book of Life, $9M
St. Vincent, $8.2M
Alexander..., $7.1M
The Best of Me, $4.8M
The Judge, $4.2M
Dracula Untold, $4.2M
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Everything looks about normal, although I would've liked a better second weekend hold for Book of Life.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Ouija didn't reach $20M, it should drop hard Sat/Sunday.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates


Top 10:
5 points - Ouija, $20.0M
(John Wick, $14.1M)
3 points - Fury, $13.0M
2 points - Gone Girl, $11.1M
1 point - The Book of Life, $9.8M
St. Vincent, $8.1M
Alexander..., $7.0M
The Best of Me, $4.7M
The Judge, $4.3M
Dracula Untold, $4.3M


PTA:
5 points - Birdman, $28,720
4 points - Laggies, $15,700
3 points - Ouija, $7,000
2 points - Whiplash, $5,783
1 point - Fury, $4,097

No word yet on White Bird in a Blizzard.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by numbersix »

White Bird made 2400 in 4 theatres on Friday. It probably won't hit 2K PTA for the weekend, so it's safe to rule out.

Glad Whiplash got some more PTA. Think that's 9 in total which makes it worthwhile. Birdman is killing it, though.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals


Top 10:
5 points - Ouija, $19.9M
John Wick, $14.4M
3 points - Fury, $13.4M
2 points - Gone Girl, $11.0M
1 point - The Book of Life, $10.0M
St. Vincent, $7.7M
Alexander..., $7.2M
The Best of Me, $4.6M
Dracula Untold, $4.4M
The Judge, $4.4M


PTA:
5 points - Birdman, $27,593
4 points - Laggies, $14,828
3 points - Ouija, $6,955
2 points - Whiplash, $5,398
1 point - Fury, $4,209

White Bird in a Blizzard ended up with $1,576.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/24

Post by Chienfantome »

Wow, I'm glad I dropped White Bird in a Blizzard after all. And I'm a bit disappointed with Ouija's take. I thought it could do $25M. Well, I hadn't put it on any slate.
Aaaand I thought John Wick could do more like 16/17M.
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