SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/25

[Shrykespeare]

Crap, I actually picked Transcendence to be the box office AND PTA winner? Must’ve been the medication I was on…

Anyway, Captain America: The Winter Soldier joined Ride Along and The LEGO Movie as the only films this year to pull off the three-peat (and with summer around the corner, it’s unlikely to happen again real soon), scoring $26.6M, with Rio 2 finishing a close second at $22.5M. The big surprise was Heaven is For Real, which not only had a Good Friday (heh) but a great weekend, finishing in third $21.5M, well ahead of Transcendence ($11.1M) and A Haunted House 2 ($9.1M) both of which rode their horrible reviews right into the ground. Heaven is For Real also took the PTA crown, just beating last week’s champion Only Lovers Left Alive.

We are on the doorstep, people. In just one more week, we christen the 2014 Summer Season, where all the big boys come out to play. In the next four months, we will get three new Marvel superhero films, not to mention the latest chapters in the Transformers, Planet of the Apes and Expendables franchises. We will get sequels to animated films How to Train Your Dragon and Planes, not to mention the long-time-coming sequel to Sin City. There will also be some high-dollar reboots (Godzilla, Hercules) as well as some original sci-fi (Edge of Tomorrow, Jupiter Ascending) and fantasy (Maleficent).

On the lighter side, there will also be a fair amount of counter-programming. The top comic actors working today will be out in adult-themed comedies like Neighbors, Blended, A Million Ways to Die in the West, 22 Jump Street, Think Like a Man Too, Tammy, and Sex Tape. There will also be romantic dramas (The Fault in Our Stars) and musical dramas (Jersey Boys, Get On Up), and you gotta throw some horror in there too (The Purge: Anarchy, Deliver Us From Evil).

But before we throw open the doors to summer, we’ve got five new titles to talk about, all of which will be debuting on April 25, the final Friday of the Spring Season. Of the three new flicks debuting in wide release, the one being given the widest platform is The Other Woman (Fox), a romantic comedy-slash-revenge-film from director Nick Cassevetes (who directed The Notebook, if you remember).

The Other Woman stars Cameron Diaz as Carly, a still-single thirtysomething who just discovered that Mark (Nikolaj Coster-Waldau), the man that she was dating exclusively, is married. This comes as a shock to not only Carly but Mark’s wife Kate (Leslie Mann), who actually end up bonding over Mark’s indiscretions… and the duo becomes a trio when they discover yet ANOTHER mistress in Mark’s life, a young beauty named Amber (Kate Upton). Together, the three wronged women decide to cook up the ultimate revenge against their sleazy, three-timing, embezzling ex. Noted R&B singer Nicki Minaj also co-stars.

It’s pretty cool to see Diaz and Mann still getting roles into their 40’s, and joining forces with the buxom Upton (half their age) may broaden the appeal of this film, even though it’s not exactly an ideal “date” scenario, is it? Still, I think The Other Woman will open relatively strong, as it’s the kind of film that women flock to in droves. There hasn’t been a grown-up comedy on the docket since About Last Night (Bad Words never went wide, and A Haunted House 2 is… A Haunted House 2).

Yes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is coming out next week, and that film will destroy whatever else is in theaters, but look at it this way: if The Other Woman can grab #1 this weekend, then it will likely only drop to #2 next week. That means that it could grab close to ten Top 5 points, and perhaps even a few PTA, before Neighbors comes along on May 9 to steal its thunder. I’ll predict $18M/$49M for this film, and for $14 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office), that ain’t too shabby.




The Quiet Ones (Lionsgate) is up next, and it is the last pure-horror film to hit theaters for a while. Ostensibly based on true events, the film takes place at Oxford University in England in the early 1970’s. A university professor (Jared Harris) sets out to prove that supernatural phenomena exist only in irrational minds, and brings together a group of students to help document an experiment that will hopefully convince their subject, a troubled girl named Jane (Olivia Cooke) – whose brief life has been filled with eerie occurrences – that it’s all in her imagination. Of course, it never is, is it? Sam Claflin (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire) also co-stars.

You never really know when a horror movie is going to bust out, like The Conjuring did last year. However, 2014 has been a dreadful year for the genre, and even good reviews couldn’t elevate Oculus above mediocrity two weeks ago. The Quiet Ones certainly won’t reverse that trend. I honestly don’t think it will earn any Top 5 points or PTA at all, even in only 2,000 theaters. I’ll predict $7M/$16M and call it a day. Don’t waste your $9 on this.




Third up is Brick Mansions (Relativity), a low-grade action film that just happens to be the final film that Fast & Furious star Paul Walker completed before he died in a car accident last year. Having seen the trailer, I’m sure we can all agree that had that tragedy not occurred, this film would have likely gone straight to DVD, something that Redbox enthusiasts would have rented when everything else had already been taken. But Walker’s death was big news, and putting his face front and center has a good chance at bringing a portion his fans to his last outing. And hey, a few million bucks never hurts, does it?

Walker plays Damien Collier, an undercover cop in a dystopian Detroit who is asked to infiltrate a formerly affluent neighborhood that has now become crime-infested and cordoned off by the police, an area known as Brick Mansions. He teams up with Lino (David Belle), an ex-con who wants out of the ‘hood in the worst way, but when his girlfriend is kidnapped by the local drug kingpin, Tremaine (RZA), the two men must team up to not only rescue her but foil a plot that could devastate the entire city.

I was unaware that Belle was one of the “founders” of the athletic training style known as parkour, but it makes sense, given that most of the stunts in this film seem to be of that style. However, I must point out that the parkour craze that swept the nation has long since ebbed, and is hardly a point in Brick Mansions’ favor. Let’s face it, Walker’s face is this film’s one and only selling point.

That being said, I think that the competition is weak enough that Brick Mansions can bring in about $8M in its OW, which should be enough for one Top 5 point, maybe one PTA, and $19M total. This film is very cheap ($6 in both leagues), but I would only recommend taking it if you have exactly that amount to spend, and you need more help in your BO column than in your PTA column.




And now, a little bit about this week’s two limited-release films:

Locke (A24) ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – From director Steven Knight (writer, Eastern Promises) comes this dramatic thriller that would seem to be, from watching the trailer, one of the most minimalistic films since Buried… but equally gripping. The film stars the inimitable Tom Hardy as Ivan Locke, a construction manager who has it all: a great job that he loves and a family that he adores. However, over the course of one car-ride from Birmingham to London, all of that will change, as forces conspire to take it all away from him. By the time he reaches his destination, he will be a far different man than the one who started it.

Is the entire film just watching Locke driving, talking and hearing voices in his head? It would seem to be. Will that make for a great movie? Well, the critics sure seem to think so… they are nearly universally positive, all using words like “gripping”, “riveting”, “intense” and “ingenious”. Well, that’s good enough for me. Locke will be debuting on only three screens this Friday, and a PTA victory seems fairly certain with this pedigree. I’d like to believe it can hold on for extra points in the coming weekends as well.




For No Good Reason (Sony Classics) ($5 Ult, $1 BO) – This is a documentary from director Charlie Paul, and the subject is the life and works of Ralph Steadman, a British cartoonist who is best known for his collaborations with noteworthy American author Hunter S. Thompson, who penned such polarizing books as The Gonzo Papers and Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. Conducting the majority of the interviews with Steadman is the star of the film version of Fear and Loathing, Johnny Depp himself.

For No Good Reason debuted at the Toronto Film Festival last year, and reviews have been mixed. A lot of the film seems to include stretched of bizarre animation not unlike an episode of Monty Python’s Flying Circus, but the appeal here is probably to a very limited niche of filmgoers. It may pick up a few PTA points, but not enough to warrant spending $5 on it.




My predictions for the weekend of April 18-20, 2014:

1. The Other Woman - $18 million
2. Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $14 million
3. Rio 2 - $14 million
4. Heaven is For Real - $11 million
5. Brick Mansions - $8 million

PTA: Locke, The Other Woman, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Rio 2, For No Good Reason

Current RT/IMDb scores:


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week… The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Really, that’s all that needs to be said. Yes, there are a few limited releases too, including Elizabeth Banks comedy Walk of Shame, Thai martial arts film The Protector 2, and period drama Belle.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week (and last week):

Michael Moore (director, Fahrenheit 9/11) turns 60 on 4/23
Shirley MacLaine (Terms of Endearment) turns 80 on 4/24
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond, Gladiator) turns 50 on 4/24
Cedric the Entertainer (Madagascar, Barbershop) turns 50 on 4/24
Derek Luke (Antwone Fisher) turns 40 on 4/24
Hank Azaria (The Simpsons, The Smurfs) turns 50 on 4/25

Later!

[Chienfantome]

Those people at YouTube know how to choose a capture from the trailer to put as the image tempting you to click on the "Play" button...

[Shrykespeare]

I assume you're talking about Johnny Depp's weathered face, or possibly Paul Walker's....

[Chienfantome]

Of course not. I was talking about that creepy girl for "The Quiet Ones", you definitely wanna click to see the scary trailer.

[numbersix]

the Other Woman is very tempting as an Ultimate pick, considering the T5. But let's not overestimate the last weekend of April: it's usually flops galore. Also, I think The Quiet Ones will make more than Brick Mansions, but only just.

Locke should win the PTA crown, and deservedly so. Great flick.

1. The Other Woman - $16 million
2. Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $14 million
3. Rio 2 - $13 million
4. Heaven is For Real - $11 million
5. The Quiet Ones - $9 million

[numbersix]

Tracking...

The Other Woman $19.4m
Brick Mansions $9.3m
The Quiet Ones $6.3m

Looks like you were spot on, Shryke.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts

The Other Woman - 3,204
Brick Mansions - 2,647
The Quiet Ones - 2,027
Locke - 3
For No Good Reason - 2


Estimates for next week:

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - 4,000+
Walk of Shame - 50
Belle - 4

[BrocksterDuex]

Locke - 3

Me likey...

[silversurfer19]

Wow, early estimates pointing at a $25m weekend for The Other Woman, while The Quiet Ones bombs with just $3.8m. Brick Mansions heading for $9m OW with decent holds from everything else bar Transcendence and Haunted House 2.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

The Other Woman, $9.3M
Captain America, $4.5M
Heaven is for Real, $4.0M
Brick Mansions, $3.6M
Rio 2, $3.3M
The Quiet Ones, $1.5M
Transcendence, $1.2M
Bears, $1.2M
A Haunted House 2, $970K


Weekend Projections:

The Other Woman, $24M
Captain America, $15.5M
Heaven is for Real, $14M
Rio 2, $13.2M
Brick Mansions, $10M
Transcendence, $4.2M
The Quiet Ones, $3.8M
Divergent, $3.5M
Bears, $3.4M
A Haunted House 2, $3M
God's Not Dead $2.9M
Draft Day, $2.9M

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 15:
5 points - The Other Woman, $24.7M
4 points - Captain America: The Winter Soldier, $16.0M
3 points - Heaven is For Real, $13.8M
2 points - RIo 2, $13.6M
1 point - Brick Mansions, $9.6M
Transcendence, $4.1M
The Quiet Ones, $4.0M
Bears, $3.6M
Divergent, $3.6M
A Haunted House 2, $3.3M
God's Not Dead, $2.8M
Draft Day, $2.8M
The Grand Budapest Hotel, $2.5M
Noah, $2.2M
Oculus, $2.1M


PTA:
5 points - Locke
4 points - The Other Woman
3 points - Heaven is For Real
2 points - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (13 PTA)
1 points - Only Lovers Left Alive (10 PTA)

For No Good Reason came in 7th, right behind Brick Mansions (LMAO).

[numbersix]

You missed The Other Woman for PTA, Shryke, which came in 2nd (4 points) this weekend.

[Walleye413]

The Other Woman didn't get any PTA? As opposed to PDA

[Shrykespeare]

My bad. Other Woman got 4 PTA.

[Shrykespeare]

Bumped to next page.