SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/16, 4/18

[Shrykespeare]

The fabulous year for animated films continued this past weekend, as Rio 2 pulled in an impressive $39M in its first three days, but it was not enough to overcome Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which pulled in $41.4M on its second weekend, running its ten-day total to just under $160M. The weekend’s other debuts came in at a distant third and fourth place, with Oculus earning $12M and Draft Day pulling in $9.7M. On the PTA front, Jim Jarmusch’s Only Lovers Left Alive took top honors.

We are but a few short weeks away from beginning the summer season, and anticipation is mounting fast. But we’re not quite there yet, and to bridge the gap this week are four new films, all of which will be debuting in wide-release, which is rather unusual. The first one I’ll talk about is Heaven is For Real (TriStar), a Christian drama that is being given a mid-week debut. It will be opening in about 2,300 theaters starting Wednesday, April 16.

Based on the 2010 bestselling book Heaven is For Real: A Little Boy’s Astounding Story of His Trip To Heaven and Back by authors Todd Burpo and Lynn Vincent, the film tells the story of four-year-old Colton (Connor Corum), who tells his family that while he was being operated on, he visited Heaven, giving details about dead relatives for which he was never given any knowledge. He also gives descriptions of not only Jesus but the Big Guy Himself, and his parents, Pastor Todd (Greg Kinnear) and Sonja (Kelly Reilly) aren’t sure what to make of it, but eventually they start to see the experience through Colton’s innocent eyes. Thomas Haden Church and Margo Martindale co-star.

A few months ago, I would have probably written off this film’s chances to even make a splash, but the evidence is right there: Son of God and God’s Not Dead will have combined for over $100M before all is said and done, and neither of those films had any really recognizable stars (except Kevin Sorbo, who barely qualifies), and Noah will get to $100M all on its own (though that film was aimed at a much wider audience and was more about the spectacle than the religious aspect). Plus, it’s Easter Sunday, one of the biggest religious holidays on the calendar.

So herein lies the quandary: if the targeted demographic shows up in droves, how big an opening can Heaven is For Real achieve? I’ll say somewhere between God’s Not Dead’s $9M and Son of God’s $25M, around $17M. Which is very respectable… except that we can also expect a small drop from Rio 2, a smaller drop for Captain America: The Winter Soldier than last week, and a higher OW for Transcendence (more on that in a sec)… which means that even $17M will only put it in fourth place.

Heaven is For Real has a low price tag of $7 in Ultimate and $6 in Box Office. It may only collar two or three Top 5 points, and it may even take home a handful of PTA, but that’s not too shabby. It would seem to be a better pick in Box Office, where I think it could make over $40M.




Up next is the aforementioned Transcendence (Warner Bros.), which marks the directorial debut for Wally Pfister, after spending the last decade as the cinematographer of choice for Christopher Nolan (they worked together on seven of Nolan’s films, including all three in the Dark Knight series). His first endeavor in the big chair is a sci-fi drama starring one of the most recognizable actors in Hollywood, Johnny Depp.

Depp plays Dr. Will Caster, one of the world’s foremost authorities in artificial intelligence, whose dream is to create a machine that achieves actual sentience. However, Will’s situation becomes desperate when a radical group shoots him with a radiation-laced bullet, giving him no choice but to try to upload his consciousness into his machine in order to survive. The result is both miraculous and terrifying: when a brilliant man is fused with an uncontainable machine, will there be anything that can stop him?

First, I’ll state the obvious: Depp might be recognizable, but it hasn’t helped elevate his most recent efforts above crap-hood: The Rum Diary, Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger came in well under predictions, and even though Rango and the fourth Pirates of the Caribbean movie made money, they aren’t really highly regarded. Really, apart from Alice in Wonderland, there haven’t been any movies not featuring Jack Sparrow that have pleased both fans and critics alike?

That being said, Transcendence does have a very impressive ensemble cast, which includes Nolan regulars Morgan Freeman and Cillian Murphy, as well as Iron Man 3 cast members Paul Bettany and Rebecca Hall. Plus, advertising has been everywhere, and if Oblivion could manage $37M/$89M in April of last year on Tom Cruise’s name alone, Transcendence should bring in a number not too far away from that.

In the April leagues, Transcendence is priced at $18/$17. It will have to have a great OW to beat Rio 2, which will likely suffer only a 40-45% drop, but I think it will be up to it. I will predict $27M, seven Top 5, several PTA and $72M overall. Those are good numbers, but it likely won’t hang around in theaters once The Amazing Spider-Man 2 crashes into theaters, so I would probably pass on this title.




Director Michael Tiddes and star Marlon Wayans teamed up last year for A Haunted House, a spoof of the less-and-less-popular “found footage” horror subgenre, parodying films like The Devil Inside and the Paranormal Activity franchise. It was, if I’m being honest, one of the worst films ever made, but it did earn $18M/$40M in a January release, which is apparently enough to warrant a sequel and lo, here comes A Haunted House 2 (Open Road Films), which will be shat into about 2,400 theaters starting Friday.

Despite ending the last film on a “cliffhanger”, Malcolm Johnson (Wayans) is apparently fine and dandy, despite losing his possessed girlfriend (Essence Atkins) in a car crash. Malcolm then falls for Megan (Jamie Pressly), a single white mother of two and proceeds to move into their house… where he immediately discovers that his new abode – and family – have a spooky history surrounding them. Recent horror films such as Insidious, Sinister and The Conjuring will be skewered, Cedric the Entertainer will reprise his role from the first film, and noted comedian Gabriel Iglesias will also join the fun.

Well, this film is automatically better simply for the absence of Nick Swardson’s truly loathesome gay psychic, but that ain’t saying much. Thanks to assclowns Friedberg and Seltzer, the spoof genre is now pretty much dead and buried, and A Haunted House 2 will not resurrect it. I’ll say $12M/$30M, 1 Top 5 point and that’s it. If you really want to spend $10 on this turd ($9 in Box Office), well, it’s your funeral.




After taking 2013 off, DisneyNature is back with another nature documentary, entitled Bears (Buena Vista), whose release, as per usual, will coincide with Earth Day (April 22). Starting in 2007 with Earth, the DisneyNature umbrella has also included 2010’s Oceans, 2011’s African Cats and 2012’s Chimpanzee. Bears chronicles a year in the life of two mother grizzlies as they emerge from hibernation to face the bitter Alaskan cold, where they must teach their young cubs how to survive in the harsh wilderness, not the least of which includes a ever-present wolf-pack.

Dollar-wise, DisneyNature’s outings have done okay, earning between $15 and $30M. For this reason, Bears is reasonably priced at $6/$4. But really, what chance does a nature doc have against such fierce competition? It won’t crack the Top 5, and even the most optimistic prognosticator can’t have this film earning much more than Chimpanzee did ($28M). Is that enough to recommend taking it? Not even close. Stay away from…. DAAAAAAA BEARSSSSS! (Sorry, had to get that in.)




My predictions for the weekend of April 18-20, 2014:

1. Transcendence - $27 million
2. Rio 2 - $26 million
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $21 million
4. Heaven is For Real - $17 million ($23 million 5-day)
5. A Haunted House 2 - $12 million

PTA: Transcendence, Heaven is For Real, Rio 2, Only Lovers Left Alive, Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Transcendence – N/A, N/A
Heaven is For Real – N/A, N/A
A Haunted House 2 – N/A, N/A
Bears – N/A, N/A

Boy, that’s no help…

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we wrap up April with five new titles, all set to bow on April 25. We have, in wide release: The Other Woman, a comedy starring Cameron Diaz; The Quiet Ones, a based-on-true-events horror film; and Brick Mansions, an action film starring the late Paul Walker. In limited release, we have Locke, a thriller starring Tom Hardy, and For No Good Reason, a documentary featuring Johnny Depp.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week (and last week):

Saoirse Ronan (Hanna, The Host) turned 20 on 4/12
Danny Pino (Cold Case, Law & Order: SVU) turns 40 on 4/15
Ellen Barkin (Sea of Love, Ocean’s Thirteen) turns 60 on 4/16
“Rowdy” Roddy Piper (former wrestler, also appeared in They Live) turns 60 on 4/17
Edgar Wright (director, Shaun of the Dead) turns 40 on 4/18
America Ferrera (How to Train Your Dragon) turns 30 on 4/18
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit, Lord of the Rings) turns 50 on 4/20
Crispin Glover (Back to the Future, Willard) turns 50 on 4/20

Later!

[numbersix]

These Christian flicks are throwing me off. How are they all doing so well? And is this film going to capitalise on the interest and do well, or is it part of a saturated market? I'm not so high on Transcendence. At least Oblivion had action in it, where it seems very light in the trailers for this film, which makes it more of a cyber thriller which tend not to do well. Bears seems like a decent BO pick to me if you have a gap that needs filling. And I'm avoiding Haunted House at all costs

1. Rio 2 - $25 million
2. Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $22 million
3. Transcendence - $20 million
4. Heaven is For Real - $15 million ($20 million 5-day)
5. A Haunted House 2 - $13 million

[numbersix]

Tracking

Transcendence: 25.7m
A Haunted House 2: 15.9m
Heaven is for Real: 16.5m
Bears: 9.5m

[Chienfantome]

Tracking is pretty much on par with expentancies then.

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Transcendence - 3,455
Heaven is For Real - 2,417
A Haunted House 2 - 2,310
Bears - 1,720


Estimates for next week:

The Other Woman - 3,000
Brick Mansions - 2,400
The Quiet Ones - 2,000

[BrocksterDuex]

It appears its bombs away for Transcendence...and Mr. Depp's fall from grace continues.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

It appears its bombs away for Transcendence...and Mr. Depp's fall from grace continues.

Estimates have it an #4 this weekend with $12M. Maybe non-Tim Burton's will stop building films around him finally.

That 19% Rotten on RT ain't helping either.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Captain America: The Winter Soldier, $9.6M
Rio 2, $9.2M
Heaven is For Real, $7.8M
Transcendence, $4.8M
A Haunted House, $4.0M
Bears, $2.3M
Draft Day, $2.1M
Divergent, $2.1M
Oculus, $2.0M
God's Not Dead, $1.7M



Weekend Projections:

Captain America: The Winter Soldier, $24.5M
Rio 2, $22.5M
Heaven is For Real, $19M ($26M 5-day)
Transcendence, $12.2M
A Haunted House 2, $9.8M
Divergent, $5.7M
Draft Day, $5.6M
Bears, $5.4M
Oculus, $5.3M
Noah, $4.1M
God's Not Dead, $4.1M
The Grand Budapest Hotel, $3.2M

Wow, a three-peat for Cap. And Heaven is For Real is definitely for real. What a year for faith-based movies!

And hey, HifR could win the PTA crown too, depending on what Only Lovers does in its second week.

[undeadmonkey]

I don't get the hate for Depp or why people blame him for bombing the movies he is in. All i'm saying is, take any of depp's films of the past 5-7 years and replace him with the actor of your choice and either that film wouldn't have been made at all or it would have made less at the box office. I'm not saying that the movies he takes are great, far from it, but he's not the main reason that his films are bombing.

[BrocksterDuex]

I didn't get the feeling that we were saying it was his fault for bombing, but his presence in this movie should/could have made it more money. I think there is a difference between those 2 things. That's what they pay him the big bucks for. It's why you pay Liam Neeson (sp?) to be in Non Stop...could any actor have sold that movie and had it make almost 100M? Certain actors are expected to bring an audience to the cinema.

And to play devils advocate with your argument, do I think that if another big name actor had been in Lone Ranger it would have made more money? I absolutely think so.

Brad Pitt makes a movie w/ Angie (yes, we're on a first name basis) and it makes 186M. Depp makes a movie w/ her and it makes 67M. I know they are not the same movie, but both were advertised like a motherfucker. Also, remember, we are movie snobs. The people those movies were aimed at are people who have conversations like this:

Person 1: "Oh cool, Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are in a movie together. Awesome, let's go see it."
Person 2" "What's it about?"
Person 1: "Who cares? It has Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie in it"
Person 2: "Good call."

I think it's time for Johnny to reinvent himself a bit. Take a page from Matthew McConaughey's book and start making some good indie movies for a bit (after you fire your agent/manager of course).

On a side note, I'm slightly embarrassed to say that my favorite Johnny Depp movie is still Cry-Baby

[undeadmonkey]

I disagree, switch Depp and Pitt in Mr and Mrs Smith and The Tourist. Would Mr and Mrs Smith have made less or more with Depp in there, i don't think so. Also if Pitt would have been in The Tourist would it have made more, not at all. It was an awful movie, it could not have been more boring.

I think that the biggest problem is that people perceive Depp as having way more drawing power than he actually ever had, Yea he has been in some huge hits and in those hits Depp has been very prominent, so people attached those films as Depp being the reason they did well. I would argue that the Pirates films are the only films that actually had success due to Depp and that's only because Sparrow is such an iconic character.

[Chienfantome]

I used to like Depp as an actor, but now when I see he's playing in a film, that makes me question my desire to see the film, honestly.

[undeadmonkey]

I really wish i had Heaven on all of my slates, i had it on a few to fill some slates, but with the numbers it's pulling in it was a steal for the price.

I am glad though that I have Cap America on every single slate,will definitely pull in better numbers than most anything coming out this summer

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 12:
5 points - Captain America: The Winter Soldier, $26.6M
4 points - Rio 2, $22.5M
3 points - Heaven is for Real, $21.5M ($28.5M 5-day)
2 points - Transcendence, $11.5M
1 points - A Haunted House 2, $9.1M
Draft Day, $5.9M
Divergent, $5.7M
Oculus, $5.2M
Noah, $5.0M
God's Not Dead, $4.8M
Bears, $4.8M
The Grand Budapest Hotel, $3.4M

PTA:
5 points - Heaven is For Real
4 points - Only Lovers Left Alive
3 points - Captain America: The Winter Soldier
2 points - Rio 2
1 point - A Haunted House 2

[Shrykespeare]

Bumped to next page.