SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 21/03

[numbersix]

What a stinker. No, I’m not talking about Lizzo’s latest “release”, I’m talking about last weekend’s box office performance, which turned out to be one of the weakest since lockdown. When there were no cinemas open. The MOR duo of Novocaine and Black Bag failed to attract an audience, despite the somewhat positive reviews and public response, further suggesting that such films should just stay at home on a streamer. The Day the Earth Blew Up failed to, well, blow up, although it did perform relatively well for the small label Ketchup Entertainment, while A24 must surely realise by now that their horror satires are bombing, with latest attempt Opus failing to make it into the Top 10. But this is all old news, a new queen is in town.




Snow White is the latest Disney reboot/revival/rehash, which surely means a complete success. Marc Webb (of the bad Spiderman movies) helms this version, with Rachel Zegler playing the eponymous princess against Gal Gadot’s Evil Zionist... I mean Queen. This is a big-budget, major affair, and one of the major releases before the summer. And yet…

The production has had its fair share of controversy. Not only has its release date been pushed countless times, but the casting of Zegler angered the conservatives who seem to think fairytales are more believable than the Jurassic era. It didn’t help that she dissed the original, beloved Disney cartoon. And then the film removed the iconic seven dwarves and reimagined them in various ways, just about pissing everyone off. However, is this enough to really affect the majority of people, who care little of casting decisions and the political views of its cast and just want to throw their snotty kids into a dark room for 2 hours? The other issue is the saturation of films like this, as Disney scrape the barrell and redo all of their IP – from Mulan to The Lion King and Aladdin and Dumbo and so on. And finally there is talk of some AMC theatres reducing their afternoon screenings and opening their cinemas later, which will affect the matinee business.

The best this film can hope for is a performance like the other female-leaning Disney remake: The Little Mermaid, which dredged up nearly $300m. But that was a summer release, and seemed to be liked more and be less offensive to the gammons of the USA. In March, you won’t get that kind of opening. Tracking is a bit all over the place, but a $50m opening sounds safe. It should hold well, as these films tend to do, although Minecraft could poison its performance. Still, $150m should be possible, which is nevertheless a problem for Walt’s minions. As we’re nearing the end of this season, you’ll only end up with 10 T5 points, 7 PTA, and a low 6 IMDB score. That’s still solid for $18 in Ultimate, so if it’s there on your slate as a mid-range pick, you’re safe. For $28 in BO, you may end up with less than $100m. How do you like them apples?





The Alto Knights (Warner) has no place in theaters. Yes, it has Robert De Niro playing two roles (bizarrely), but this mob boss biopic looks as flat as a Times Square calzone. Written by Nicholas Pileggi (of Goodfellas fame) and directed by Barry Levinson, the whole film is made by tired old men, who in turn will be the film’s only audience. With no advance buzz from festivals, or even any reviews out as of writing, expect this one to sleep with the fishes. You might see 2-3 T5 points, a PTA point or 2, but none of that really justifies the paltry $4 in Ultimate (next week has 2 wide releases that will fare better). And it probably won’t cross the $10m mark in total, so even in BO you should foggetabowdit.




Ash (RLJE) is a trippy sci-fi written and directed by experimental electronic artist Flying Lotus (whose lives shows have disoriented me on several occasions). It tells the story of an astronaut whose crew have all died, and her relationship with the man sent to rescue her. The film opened in SXSW to strong reviews, but everything about the film screams “cult”, including the musician/director’s fanbase. It’s hard to get an exact count on theatres this week, but it seems to be in the dozens, if not more. That’s a shame, as this would have been a great Ultimate pick otherwise. But as of now, its $2-$3 price is worth dust.




Magazine Dreams (BriarCliff) almost never came out. Despite the strong reviews out of its premiere in the Sundance Film Festival in 2023, this story of bodybuilder pushing himself to extreme lengths got effectively cancelled when abuse allegations about lead actor Jonathan Majors hit the press. Majors was dropped from the MCU, his agency team, but his conviction was arguably less alarming than initially thought, and the actor is now attached to other, smaller movies. Disney dropped this movie, but Briarcliff picked it up and are pushing for a major (pun intended) release. It looks like it’s going even wider than Ash, so forget about it for Ultimate, though if you have $1 left in your BO slate, you may as well pick this one.




That leaves Bob Trevino Likes it (Roadside). It’s an indie drama starring Barbie Ferreira (from Euphoria) who is seeking her estranged father only to form a bond with a different man with the exact same name (John Leguizamo). This endearing film won a bunch of awards at last year’s SXSW fest, and has strong reviews. If there was any major competition at this level, I’d say avoid this one, but seeing as it’s coming out in a handful of theatres, that should mean 4-6 PTA points and a 7ish IMDB score, which is actually great for $2 in Ultimate.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Snow White - $50m
2. Novocaine - $4m
3. Black Bag - $3.5m
4. Alto Nights - $3.5m
5. Mickey 17 - $3.3m


PTA: Snow White, Bob Trevino, Magazine Dreams, Ash, Eephus


Next week sees the release of a bunch of different films, including A Working Man, The Woman in the Yard, Death of a Unicorn, The Friend, and The Ballad of Wallis Island

[Buscemi2]

Ash is a wide opener and it looks like it will be evenings only at a number of locations so expect PTA to be minuscule.

[numbersix]

Indeed, as per Deadline just now, Ash is coming out in just over 1000 theatres this weekend, so forget about any PTA points

[transformers2]

Snow White made $3.5 mil from previews, which is $300k less than what Kung Fu Panda 4 pulled in last March.

[numbersix]

So using just that as an example, that would suggest a $52m opening.

The question is whether this is a frontloaded film with fans flocking to the previews (and thus we'll see a lower opening) or whether it's more of a drop-in family film, in which it'll open higher.

[Buscemi2]

I'm expecting the latter, as family-friendly titles have held well lately while everything else has seemingly been one-and-done. It should be something that studios should look at but never do as they only seem to want the 18-35 male audience that dominates the Internet and hates Disney.

[transformers2]

So using just that as an example, that would suggest a $52m opening.

The question is whether this is a frontloaded film with fans flocking to the previews (and thus we'll see a lower opening) or whether it's more of a drop-in family film, in which it'll open higher.

Indeed, Historically, Disney's live action remakes haven't been overly frontloaded, but honestly, who the fuck knows how this shit is going to play out with the lukewarm reviews/exits its receiving (PostTrak was 3 stars, although kids rated it 5 stars-which is about the only good news Disney has received on this movie recently) and people from all over the political spectrum who may or may not planned on seeing it threatening to boycott it for different reasons.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Bob Trevino Likes It: A+
Snow White: B+
The Alto Knights: B

[transformers2]

Damn, that's got to be the first time in forever that a movie only playing in NYC/LA reported a CinemaScore after opening day.

[Buscemi2]

Usually, limited release scores are never reported on the site and only released to the studio, though they do get leaked if the studio is happy with the score.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Snow White $43 mil
Black Bag $4.4 mil
Captain America: Brave New World $4.1 mil
Mickey 17 $3.9 mil
Novocaine $3.8 mil
The Alto Knights $3.2 mil
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie $1.8 mil
The Monkey/Dog Man $1.5 mil
The Last Supper $1.3 mil

PTA:
Bob Trevino Likes It $11.6k
Snow White $10.2k
Black Bag $1.6k
Mickey 17 $1.5k
Captain America: Brave New World $1.4k

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Snow White $42.2 mil
2.Black Bag $4.3 mil
3.Captain America: Brave New World $4 mil
4.Novocaine $3.68 mil
5.Mickey 17 $3.67 mil
6.The Alto Knights $3.2 mil
7.The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie $1.9 mil
8.The Monkey $1.5 mil
9.Dog Man $1.48 mil
10.The Last Supper $1.3 mil

-Magazine Dreams $701,365
-Ash $689,144
-Bob Trevino Likes It $52,031

PTA:
1.Bob Trevino Likes It $10,406 (5 theaters)
2.Snow White $10,049
3.Black Bag $1,570
4.Eephus $1,449
5.Mickey 17 $1,424

-The Alto Knights $1,194
-Magazine Dreams $861 (815 theaters)
-Ash $607

Outside of the game, Locked made $924,054 from 971 theaters and The Assessment made $152,905 from 265.

[Chienfantome]

When will the steam pick up at the BO this year ? Three months gone already, and besides Dog Man, it feels like everything disappointed.

[Buscemi2]

When the studios stop letting the Internet dictate what we see.

[transformers2]

When will the steam pick up at the BO this year ? Three months gone already, and besides Dog Man, it feels like everything disappointed.

Probably next month. A Minecraft Movie being a hit is a layup, Sinners has the potential to do really well if WOM doesn't prove to be toxic, and The Accountant 2 is the sequel to a longtime cable/streaming/VOD favorite stateside-which makes a $20-$30 mil opening a real possibility. Warfare and Drop could do alright too.

As dreary as the opening to this year has been, the blah numbers for everything outside of Brave New World, Dog Man and modest hits like One of Them Days and The Monkey are hardly surprising. Hollywood didn't exactly trot out the most commercially appealing slate to start the year and that's been reflected in the attendance numbers.