Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

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transformers2
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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

Post by transformers2 »

The enduring power of Big Nick can no longer be denied.

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera kicked off the proper 2025 wide release slate by holding off Mufasa and securing Lionsgate's first #1 opening since The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes in November 2023 with its $15 mil OW. That number is right in line with what the original opened to back in January 2018 ($15.2 mil) and represents a bit of an increase over Butler's last January vehicle Plane-which made $10.3 mil in its first 3 days 2 short years ago. If all goes well for the rest of its run, Den of Thieves 3 could be in the cards.

As stated above, Mufasa (comfortably) took the #2 spot by putting another $14.2 mil into its lion bank in weekend #4. The Barry Jenkins-helmed Disney vehicle will clear $200 mil sometime this weekend. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 ($11.3 mil), Nosferatu ($6.9 mil) and Moana 2 ($6.5 mil) rounded out the holdover-driven top 5 on this relatively uneventful weekend at the multiplexes.

The biggest story on the limited circuit wasn't the pretty good start for Mike Leigh's Hard Truths ($171,840 in 22 theaters) or Every Little Thing cleaning up in its single theater debut ($25,733), it was the continued dominance of The Brutalist. Brady Corbet's epic drama earned a whopping $1.4 mil from 68 runs as it finally entered several major markets including Chicago, Boston and Phoenix after playing exclusively in the cinephile hotbeds of NYC/LA/SF for the first 3 weeks of its run. The next test for the potential Best Picture winner will be this week's final expansion before it goes truly wide a week from Friday.

Wide Releases:
Leigh Whannell's The Invisible Man was the last film to have a “normal” release in 2020 before COVID shut down the world and by all accounts, it was a pretty big success as the film got great reviews and made just north of $70 mil during its truncated theatrical run. Just under 5 years later, the Australian writer/director is returning to the world of monster movie remakes with his take on Wolf Man (Universal). Like The Invisible Man, Wolf Man is a loose remake of Curt Slodmak's 1941 film as it grounds the werewolf action in a domestic situation with a young father (Christopher Abbott) slowly morphing into something sinister after being scratched by an unseen beast in the Oregon woods. Julia Garner and Matilida Firth play the wife and daughter who have to watch in horror as the man they love becomes an unrecognizable, bloodthirsty monster.

Universal has delivered an all-out promotional blitz with Wolf Man-attaching the trailer to a ton of movies dating all the way back to mid-September, making the new “infected” take on the classic monster part of their annual Horror Nights attraction at Universal Studios Hollywood this past October and running spots during several NFL games over the past month including last week's playoff action. As always, that high visibility doesn't guarantee a smash hit. Blumhouse's last movie Speak No Evil received a similar blitzkrieg and only made $36.9 mil total (although it did post a solid 3.24 multiplier after a so-so $11.4 mil OW). Regardless of outcome, a distributor trying their damnedest to sell people on a movie is commendable behavior in an era where significant marketing pushes are becoming less common with each passing year .

The questions that will likely dictate Wolf Man's fate is do people give a shit about this property and are they willing to accept a version of this character that isn't simply a classic werewolf that transforms when a full moon hits. While the latter remains to be seen, the last version (2010's The Wolfman) made $62.5 mil-which was a terrible result against its $150 mil budget but isn't bad at all on a strictly dollar amount basis (especially when you factor in that it was was a period film that got lit up by critics and audiences alike)-which indicates that people could be willing to take another spin on the Wolf Man express.

Despite all of the uncertainty surrounding it, I think Wolf Man will end up doing fine. It has the next 2 weeks effectively to itself at the top of the marquee before the buzzy wild card Companion arrives on the scene, will get a bump from MLK day this weekend and is well-positioned to ride the horror wave that Nosferatu started with its success. It probably won't hit The Invisible Man levels, but $50-60 mil certainty feels attainable.
Price: $19 ULT/$20 BO
Predictions:$15-25 mil OW/2-4 PTA/8-17 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMD/$35-70 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While it doesn't have an overly high ceiling, it should prove to be a fine pick in both formats.


One of Them Days (Sony/TriStar) is the next title that's brave enough to test the theatrical comedy waters. The buddy comedy starring Keke Palmer and SZA-making her acting debut-as best friends desperately scrambling around LA to make $1,500 by the end of the day to avoid being evicted from their apartment is actually the first wide release R-rated comedy from a major studio since Sony's own Anyone But You 13 months ago. This should serve as interesting litmus test for a genre that has pretty much completely eaten shit at the box office dating all the way back to 2017 or so as it features a lead actor duo who have established fanbases among younger demographics, a producer with industry clout in Issa Rae that has used her platform to push the movie hard and most importantly, appears to be a good bet to get great WOM based on the pairing of solid early reviews and positive reactions stemming from the preview screenings that were held last Saturday night in select theaters. While its thrifty $14 mil budget makes it a pretty safe bet to turn a profit, this being able to find a meaningful audience ($30+ mil) would be a much-needed small victory for this genre's comeback efforts.
Price: $9 ULT/$9 BO
Predictions:$4-12 mil OW/0-3 PTA/3-10 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/$15-45 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: In such a devastatingly unsexy season, it could be worth a look.


Limited Release:
I'm Still Here (Sony Classics) is being released at the perfect time. The Brazilian docudrama about Ennice Pava and the physical, psychological and emotional torment she endured at the hands of the country's military dictatorship following the forced disappearance of her dissident politician husband Rubens in 1971 is riding awards buzz fever following Fernanda Torres' surprise Best Actress win at the Golden Globes and is entering a limited marketplace that has some breathing room for the first time in a month as The Brutalist finally expands into triple digit theaters this weekend. A $10+k PTA start feels like it's going to be in the cards and it should be to pick up some more points as it slowly expands over the coming weeks.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $25-60k OW/7-14PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 8 IMDb/$300k-$3 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Indeed


Weekend Predictions:
1.Wolf Man $23 mil
2/3 Den of Thieves 2/Mufasa $9 mil
4.One of Them Days $7 mil
5.Sonic the Hedgehog 3 $6 mil

PTA: I'm Still Here, The Brutalist, Wolf Man, Hard Truths, Every Little Thing

Tune in next week when six breaks down a slate that includes Steven Soderbergh's unique haunted house movie, Phoebe Dynevor unknowingly entering the spy game and Mark Wahlberg finally fulfilling his dream of being involved in a violent situation onboard an airplane.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Wolf Man's getting weak early reviews and it has almost nothing to do with the source material. I could see word-of-mouth killing this one.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

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Preview totals:
Wolf Man $1.4 mil
One of Them Days $1.3 mil (Not sure if this includes last Saturday's sneaks)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

One of Them Days: A-
Wolf Man: C-
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Bombs away for Wolf Man.

Friday numbers:
1. Wolf Man $4.5 million
2. One of Them Days $4.4 million
3. Mufasa $2.5 million
4. Den of Thieves 2 $2 million
5. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 $1.7 million
Moana 2 $1.2 million
Nosferatu $1.2 million
A Complete Unknown $1.1 million
Wicked $0.8 million
The Brutalist $0.6 million

Meanwhile, I'm Still Here looks to win the PTA crown easily while Better Man is on track for an 80% second weekend drop. I have no idea how Paramount didn't know how to market this one.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
One of Them Days $11.6 mil
Mufasa: The Lion King $11.5 mil
Wolf Man $10.6 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 $8.6 mil
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera $6.6 mil
Moana 2 $6.1 mil
Nosferatu $4.3 mil
A Complete Unknown $3.8 mil
Wicked $3.6 mil
Babygirl $2 mil

PTA:
I'm Still Here $25.1k
The Brutalist $5.9k
One of Them Days $4.3k
Mufasa $3.2k
Wolf Man $3.1k

Wolf Man not being able to reach Night Swim's OW from last year is kind of astonishing
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Mufasa: The Lion King $12.1 mil
2.One of Them Days $11.8 mil
3.Wolf Man $10.9 mil
4.Sonic the Hedgehog 3 $8.6 mil
5.Den of Thieves 2: Pantera $6.6 mil
6.Moana 2 $6 mil
7.Nosferatu $4.1 mil
8.A Complete Unknown $3.7 mil
9.Wicked $3.6 mil
10.Babygirl $2 mil

-I'm Still Here $113,705

PTA:
1.I'm Still Here $22,741 (5 theaters)
2.The Brutalist $5,863 (338 theaters)
3.One of Them Days $4,414
4.Mufasa: The Lion King $3,391
5.Wolf Man $3,249
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/17

Post by StarLord123 »

I didn’t think Wolf Man was as bad as others thought, but negative WOM really tanked it seemingly.

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