Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by transformers2 »

Score another #1 debut for director John Krasinski.

Krasinski’s family comedy IF fended off reigning champ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($25.5, -56%) for the top spot with a $33.7 mil OW. Whether this was a victory or failure for the original live action/animation hybrid that reportedly carries a budget of $110 million depends on whether or not you bought into the $40 mil pre-release tracking figures, but the film did beat its initial weekend estimates by about $5 mil and got terrific exit polling figures-which could mean it’s going to leg out nicely over the coming weeks.

While some debate swirls over IF's performance, the unquestioned biggest loser of the weekend proved to be Back in Black. The controversial Amy Winehouse biopic completely cratered in its Stateside debut, securing only $2.8 mil worth of tickets sales. While it clearly was never going to become the BO triumph it's been in the UK, the degree of its failure domestically is pretty stunning. Good luck with that Robbie Williams musical biopic later this year Paramount!

Lionsgate, on the other hand, had every reason to celebrate this weekend as The Strangers: Chapter 1 comfortably beat expectations. The first installment of their new Strangers prequel trilogy brought in $11.8 mil-which is actually a big higher than the previous film Prey at Night ($10.4 mil) did 6 years ago- and finally unseated Night Swim for the title of the highest horror opening of 2024 so far. While it remains to be seen if people will be invested enough in these new characters to see the next two installments that are aiming to release this fall and winter respectively, the decision to greenlight a new trilogy of Strangers films doesn’t look nearly as silly as it did prior to last week.

Wrapping up the crop of new releases came the limited opening of Pamela Adlon’s directorial debut Babes. The raunchy motherhood/pregnancy comedy starring Illana Glazer-who also co-wrote the script and Michelle Buteau earned a solid $163,130 from 12 theaters spread across 5 markets (NYC, LA, San Francisco, Austin, Boston). Neon will be rolling it out nationwide this week, which will likely bring an abrupt end to its success as the film really hasn’t picked up any buzz outside of major markets despite its strong reactions dating back to its SXSW debut in March. Anything higher than $2 mil from its expansion would be a nice surprise.

Wide Releases:

After 9 years away, George Miller is heading back to the wasteland. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Brothers) delivers the origin story for the fan-favorite heroine that Charlize Theron portrayed in Fury Road. Anya Taylor-Joy plays the younger Furiosa-who is out for revenge against the demented biker warlord Dementus (Chris Hemsworth) who kidnapped her as a teenager and held her as a slave until she made her escape. Chaotic rides through the desert, an appearance from the younger version of Fury Road antagonist Immortan Joe and some endearing villainous overacting from Hemsworth also appear to be on the menu.

Fury Road did an outstanding job of restoring life into the Mad Max brand after a multi-decade absence and with the sterling reputation of that film enduring quite nicely over the years, Furiosa is well-positioned to be another hit as the film has earned another round of great reviews and is heading into this Memorial Day Weekend as the biggest show in town. Further bolstering the buzz surrounding this film is a sweeping press tour from Taylor-Joy and Hemsworth that has produced several viral clips and might even lure some younger people who aren't already Mad Max fans to the theaters. The reportedly slower pace and less frequent action beats open up the risk for steep drops occurring down the road, but it likely won't matter too much as Bad Boys: Ride or Die and The Bikeriders are the only other movies that are even attempting to court a similar audience set to open over the next month and playing in a pretty lean marketplace should be kind to its bottom line regardless of what the audience reception proves to be.
Price: $33 ULT/$35 BO
Predictions: $35-55 mil OW/6-12 PTA/11-18 Top 5/mid to high 7 IMD/$100-200 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: If you didn't roll with the Planet of the Apes and are against selecting Inside Out 2, it could be worth a look.



The Garfield Movie (Sony/Columbia) continues Chris Pratt's crusade to voice as many iconic characters as possible before he shuffles off this mortal coil. This first-ever fully animated feature adventure for the lasagna-loving house cat hails from Mark Dindal (The Emperor's New Groove, Chicken Little) and sees Garfield and his pal Odie (voiced by Harvey Guillen) get plucked from their cozy suburban home by Garfield’s long-lost father (Samuel L. Jackson) in order to aid him with heist. Definitely not a normal Tuesday for the orange tabby and his canine companion!

Calling The Garfield Movie a wild card is probably a bit of a stretch as it has a pretty safe floor, but the wide range of potential outcomes surrounding it does make it one of the more unpredictable blockbusters of this season. Working in its favor is a pretty strong international start ($49 mil) from markets including Brazil, Spain, Mexico and Germany, wide brand recognition and its status as the first fully animated film to hit theaters since Kung Fu Panda 4. Working against it is a bad release date where IF has the potential to cut into its business now and Inside Out 2 poses a looming threat to its legs with its opening set for 3 weeks from now and the semi-forgotten fact that neither of the live action/CGI Garfield flicks from the 2000’s were big hits in their day. I’m not bullish or completely down on the movie personally, so I’ll say that its final tally ends up somewhere between Trolls World Tour ($103 mil) and Migration ($127.3 mil).
Price: $26 ULT/$27 BO
Predictions: $30-50 mil OW/6-10 PTA/10-17 Top 5/high 5 to low 6 IMD/$90-175 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: As much as IF and Inside Out 2 could fuck up its bottom line, it should still do well enough to justify its relatively low price tag in either format.


The American cinema community got a very unpleasant surprise when Briarcliff pulled Sight (Angel) off the schedule mere weeks before the film’s scheduled release last October. After months of painful quiet on the Sight front, a savior emerged in the form of Angel Studios and handed the film a prime Memorial Day weekend release date. Now, will this biopic about a Chinese immigrant (Terry Chen) who lives out his version of the American dream by becoming a prolific eye surgeon do good business on a major holiday weekend? No chance. Will the slick crowdfunding scheme that Angel runs on all their movies net enough greenbacks for it to secure a top 5 spot? Quite possibly! Now, the potential for Sight to rack up a top 5 point or two and clear $10 mil domestic probably won’t be enough to make it worth selecting in ULT or BO, but there are probably worse ways to spend $4 in a season where the cheap picks have largely failed to amount to much of anything.
Price: $4 ULT/$4BO
Predictions: $5-8 mil OW/0-2 PTA/0-2 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMD/$15-30 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Unless it becomes the next Sound of Freedom against all odds, no.


Limited Release:
Sitting alone in the speciality release category of our game this week is a Norwegian documentary called Songs of Earth (Strand). The film follows director Margeth Olin as she spends a year exploring the rich landscapes of Oldehalen-a 20-KM river valley located in Western Norway- with her 85-year old father who grew up in the area. Reviews from the festival circuit where it launched last year have been pretty strong, but this feels like far too niche and mediative of a project to gain any sort of notable traction.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $8-30k OW/0-2 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/$20-65k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Probably not.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Furiosa $42 mil ($50 mil 4-day)
2.The Garfield Movie $33 mil ($44 mil 4-day)
3.IF $19 mil ($25 mil 4-day)
4.Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $14 mil ($19 mil 4-day)
5.Sight $6 mil ($8 mil 4-day)

PTA: Furiosa, The Garfield Movie, IF, Songs of Earth, Sight

Tune in next week when Screen breaks down what just might end up being the least splashy weekend of the entire 2024 summer season. Young Woman and the Sea, Ezra and In a Violent Nature are among the titles hoping to defy the odds by exceeding their soft expectations in wide-ish release while Best Animated Feature Nominee Robot Dreams finally begins its proper theatrical rollout 6+ months after its awards qualifying run wrapped up.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by numbersix »

I think the buzz about Garfield has been dropping recently. It's being seen less as an essential family film and more of a filler until the emotions and the minions dominate. I think $100m feels about right by the summer's end.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by Buscemi2 »

Garfield's getting destroyed by critics, noting how little it has to do with the comic strip. At this point, it's probably going to play less Secret Life of Pets and more Migration.

Meanwhile, I have to wonder if Sony's going to regret making a deal with Garfield's animation studio to release future projects from them (they have another movie from them opening next summer from the guy who did last year's flop The Machine).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by Chienfantome »

When I prepared the draft, I had Garfield in a $75M to $100M potential. So I wouldn't be surprised if it had a hard time even getting to 100M.
I don't get the buzz it had during a few weeks. As you say Tranny, the 2000's films didn't really work at the BO back then, plus the animation doesn't look really good. It won't make even half of what Inside Out 2 or Despicable Me 4 will make.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

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I think the difference was the Internet. However, the Internet popularity of Garfield is almost entirely ironic.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

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Preview totals:
Furiosa $3.5 mil
The Garfield Movie $1.9 mil
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Sight: A
Furiosa: B+
The Garfield Movie: B+

What makes the latter two scores interesting is that B+ was also the grade for both Mad Max: Fury Road and the previous two Garfield movies.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

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3-day weekend estimates:
Furiosa $25.5 mil
The Garfield Movie $24.8 mil
IF $16.1 mil
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $13.4 mil
The Fall Guy $5.9 mil
The Strangers: Chapter 1 $5.6 mil
Sight $2.7 mil
Challengers $1.3 mil
Babes/Back to Black $1.1 mil

PTA:
Furiosa $6.7k
The Garfield Movie $6.1k
IF $4k
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $3.8k
The Fall Guy $2k
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by numbersix »

Wow, Furiosa has truly bombed.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by Buscemi2 »

They waited too long to make it and Anya Taylor-Joy doesn't have the star power Charlize Theron has. And I'm really starting to sound like a broken record here but there have been too many dystopian movies lately. Not every filmgoer is a doomer who wants The Running Man to be a reality so they can say "I told you so".
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by numbersix »

I'm not convinced Charlize Theron has star power. I do think Tom Hardy does, which probably helped Fury Road. Apparently Furiosa isn't appealing to women, or a younger audience, so it's essentially a one-quadrant film, hence this disasterous result. And maybe a Mad Max film without Mad Max wasn't the right move.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by numbersix »

Buscemi2 wrote:
May 26th, 2024, 5:16 pm
And I'm really starting to sound like a broken record here but there have been too many dystopian movies lately. Not every filmgoer is a doomer who wants The Running Man to be a reality so they can say "I told you so".
It's a fair point although Netflix's #1 and #4 films of the second half of last year were dystopian films (Leave the World Behind and Nowhere).

They'll probably be funding more of them

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

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3-day weekend actuals:
1.Furiosa $26.3 mil
2.The Garfield Movie $24 mil
3.IF $16.1 mil
4.Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $13.4 mil
5.The Fall Guy $6 mil
6.The Strangers: Chapter $5.6 mil
7.Sight $2.8 mil
8.Challengers $1.4 mil
9.Back to Black $1.08 mil
10.Babes $1.05 mil

PTA:
1.Furiosa $6,921
2.The Garfield Movie $5,950
3.IF $3,969
4.Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $3,772
5.The Fall Guy $2,021

-Sight $1,331

Songs of Earth didn't report
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/24

Post by StarLord123 »

Dreadful result for Furiosa, not much point in hoping for legs, this franchise is likely finished. That's a shame.

Even Garfield underperformed a little, but it should do well enough for Sony to make another modestly budgeted installment (Disney probably would've spent twice as much even if they made the same movie).

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