SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 4/26

[numbersix]

Firstly, a note for any of you reading who may be interested in the Full Year Draft. We’ll be starting on Sunday, so if you haven’t said anything, please do let someone know if you’re interested in joining the most exciting game of the year.


And now, Spring ends with a slow petering out of the box-office. Long gone are the days of a surprise blockbuster pushing into late April to make way for the plethora of titans, while saving an early slice for antipathetic audiences. Last week saw the underwhelming performance of the three new opening films, in particular Abigail, whose $25m predictions didn’t quite live up to the film’s $10m reality. But the good news is that A24’s move into bigger films has almost paid off, with Civil War retaining the top spot and holding relatively well for such a divisive film. This weekend holds not many surprises, but perhaps one or two options to keep in mind.




Challengers (MGM) is a sports film starring the future’s hope, Zendaya, as well as two hairy young men. She plays an injured tennis champion who trains both her husband and her ex, who now must face off in a tournament. Directed by Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name), this is supposedly a sexy romantic drama, featuring an overly exposed tryst between the trio (talk about a US Open relationship), with the reviews being more positive than expected. The question is whether Zendaya can draw in audiences the way her Euphoria co-star Sydney Sweeney can. Guadagnino failed to do so with Timothee Chalamet in Bones and All, so this is a bit of a wild card of a film. But even if it makes $10m this weekend, it should hold well, and in Ultimate get you at least 8 T5 points, a few PTA, and a decent IMDB score to (tennis) boot. That’s probably worth it, although I would avoid for BO given the summer should get you some stronger alternatives.




Also opening wide is Unsung Hero, Lionsgate’s next attempt at a Christian hit. Here, it’s a film about a Christian rock act, with writer/director and subject of the story Joel Smallbone playing his own father in a story about their family, it seems. You gotta love a devout Christian’s faith in himself. It’s a hard one to gauge unless I want to delve into the figures and followers of these kind of films, but it doesn’t seem to be the next Jesus Revolution. In fact it only has a fraction of that film’s Youtube trailer views. So a mid single-digit opening is expected. It could come away with a few numbers in Ultimate, but unless a miracles happens, steer clear.




On the limited side we’ve got Breathe (Warner Bros), a sci-fi about a future where earth’s air is severely limited. Now, this film has a lot going for it on paper. It’s a Black-Listed script, with a cast featuring Sam Worthington, Milla Jovovich, and Jennifer Hudson. But Warner is releasing it on a limited basis (how limited, I’m not sure, but certainly more than a few dozen). And it’s a day-and-date release. All signs point to this being a bit of a misfire, so when it comes to delivering in either game, well… I wouldn’t hold my breath.




Next up is Boy Kills World (Roadside/Lionsgate), not a film about the ongoing epidemic of public mass shootings in the US, but a quirky action film featuring Bill Skarsgard as a deaf-mute man seeking revenge on the criminals who murdered his family. Famke Janssen and Michelle Dockery co-star. This opened in Toronto last year to mildly positive reviews, but is being put out in a few dozen theatres, making it pointless in all games.




The exhaustingly titled The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Past (Magnolia) should be a contender for the PTA crown. This NY-based story of a woman dealing with love, life, and BDSM, made by and starring Joanna Arnow, opened in Cannes last year and critics said it slapped. Magnolia’s release patterns so far this year have been to open in over 20 screens, and render its titles pointless for this game. As of writing, I can only see it out in 4 theatres in NY this weekend, but take that waith a grain of burning salt. So beware.



Predictions for the weekend

1. mmZendaya - $9m
2. We Don’t Need No Civil War- $6m
3. Godzilla Pot Luck - $5.5m
4. Unsung Zero - $4m
5. Ministry of Un- ah who cares- $4m


PTA: Anyone’s guess, to be honest, but let’s go for Challengers, The Feeling, Civil War, Stress Positions, Unsung Hero


Next week sees the Summer Season start, with Screen checking out Ken’s latest film The Fall Guy, as well as horror flick Tarot, and limited releases Evil Does Not Exist, I Saw the TV Glow, and Wildcat

[Buscemi2]

Boy Kills World is opening wide. I'd expect a box office below the last Lionsgate release involving a mute protagonist murdering a bunch of people.

As for the wide openers, I'd expect Challengers to play better than Immaculate, with that supposed box office draw Sydney Sweeney. Unless it's a big tentpole, audiences don't really care about if a Euphoria actor is in a movie. Jacob Elordi's films haven't taken off in theatres, Sweeney's movies are in a continued financial decline (Madame Web made less than half of Anyone but You's domestic box office, Immaculate has only made a little over a third of Madame Web's), and Zendaya's movies might end up only working if they are action films.

[transformers2]

I think Challengers is a real threat to do $15-20 mil this weekend. The buzz surrounding it seems to have gone beyond the niche corner of the internet that embraced Bones and All, it has the full complement of PLF screens behind it and all those glowing reviews certainly won't hurt.

As for Boy Kills World, it is going wide, but it appears to only be around 800-1,200 theaters and shouldn't make much more than $2 mil for the weekend.

[Buscemi2]

Word of mouth will probably be terrible though. With the exception of Call Me by Your Name, Guadagnino's movies have failed to get mainstream acceptance.

The best case scenario would be equaling Bones and All's B Cinemascore, although that score was skewed by people who just came for Chalamet. Not sure if we'll see Zendaya fans lining up for opening night of a tennis movie.

As for Boy Kills World, $2 million seems optimistic. There hasn't been much marketing and the decision to open wide feels more like a way to build interest in The Crow, another Lionsgate pickup with Skarsgard. I feel it struggles to hit $1 million.

[numbersix]

It will have better WOM than Bones and All, which didn't quite appeal to horror fans or to romance fans. What you see in the trailers is what you get.

[JohnErle]

Firstly, a note for any of you reading who may be interested in the Full Year Draft. We’ll be starting on Sunday, so if you haven’t said anything, please do let someone know if you’re interested in joining the most exciting game of the year.

I was tempted for old time's sake, but I'm still very busy and when I glanced at Box Office Mojo I had no idea what 95% of those upcoming releseas even are, so I'd be playing catch up the whole time. I did enjoy the full year draft back in the day, though. Maybe next year.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Challengers $1.9 mil (unclear whether or not this includes Monday's sneaks)
Unsung Hero $1.67 mil (includes Wednesday sneaks)

[Buscemi2]

I only just saw a trailer for Unsung Hero last week and I have no idea who the audience is for this outside of Evangelicals. It looks like a corny knockoff of an imitator of The Blind Side.

And I've never even heard of For King + Country. How are we supposed to be interested in a group that's supposedly been around for over 30 years but are only known by hardcore CCM fans?

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Unsung Hero: A+
Challengers: B+
Boy Kills World: B-

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Challengers $15 mil
Unsung Hero $7.8 mil
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $7.2 mil
Civil War $7 mil
Abigail $5.3 mil
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare $3.9 mil
Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.6 mil
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $3.3 mil
Dune: Part Two $2 mil
Boy Kills World $1.6 mil

PTA:
Challengers $4.3k
Unsung Hero $2.8k
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $2.2k
Civil War $2k
Stress Positions $1.8k

[Buscemi2]

The effects of the strikes have been truly seen. The Internet is our new studio overlords, with only movies for filmbros and doomers to be shown in the cinemas.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Challengers $15 mil
2.Unsung Hero $7.7 mil
3.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $7.2 mil
4.Civil War $7 mil
5.Abigail $5.2 mil
6.The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare $3.8 mil
7.Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.6 mil
8.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $3.3 mil
9.Dune: Part Two $2 mil
10.Boy Kills World $1.7 mil

-The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed $14,113

PTA:
1.The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed $7,057 (2 theaters)
2.Challengers $4,317
3.Unsung Hero $2,730
4.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $2,180
5.Civil War $1,991

-Boy Kills World $870

Breathe didn't report.